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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, emcllns said:

Vlad will be the #1 fantasy producer next year... And a few after.

Not likely with Grichuk and Smoak batting behind him. 

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48 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Not likely with Grichuk and Smoak batting behind him. 

Smoak’s a free agent but point taken

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8 hours ago, emcllns said:

Vlad will be the #1 fantasy producer next year... And a few after.

 

This is the type of hyperbole that got him so much heat for sucking in the first place. 

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6 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

This is the type of hyperbole that got him so much heat for sucking in the first place. 

i don't think it's that wild to think he will be the top fantasy producer.

 

kinda reminds me of the pujols and a-rod years.  that's prolly what we're looking at with vladdy and acuna.

 

assuming of course vladdy realizes his potential.

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Posted (edited)

It's pretty hard to predict someone to finish #1, Trout would be my pick every year and I believe he was only the #1 player in fantasy that first year. And yes, if steals count for 1/5th of your categories (standard roto) it's certainly much harder for Vlad to do so. I don't remember the last time a hitter was a near 0 in steals and was #1 player, it's been a minute. When Pujols was in contention and doing it, power was very down and there were a lot more steals (and Pujols had some double digit steals yearS). Home Runs are worth less and steals are worth more in overall player ranking, thus for someone like Vlad to be #1, his home runs and average would have to be nuts.

So yeah, I'm easily selling Vlad as #1 player in the next few years, possibly ever. That doesn't mean he can't be elite or a hall of famer, #1 fantasy player for a season is cool but meaningless, Carlos Gonzalez once did it.

 

To put things in perspective, as we sit right now, Yelich has a decent lead over Bellinger, and Bellinger has 9 steals.

 

Bellinger is batting 330 with 36 bombs and 9 steals on August 3rd and isn't the #1 player.  I will take the under on all 3 of those for Vlad next year, and again, he's not the #1 player and it's only August 3rd.  I certainly think a 300+ average and 40 bombs might be in his career future, wouldn't bank on it next year, and even that doesn't make you #1. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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.325, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 60 BB, and 60 K next year.  Somebody bookmark this.

:P

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Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2019 at 3:57 PM, mevins31 said:

Why don’t you name what they have organizationally aside from the five I named; across any level. I want names. Go ahead I’ll stay in the thread and wait. Also biggio and Jansen are fringe. 

 

On 8/1/2019 at 4:17 PM, cs3 said:

You must not understand how farm systems are valued.

But I'll play your game anyway:

Pearson

Groshans

Kay

Manoah

Pardinho

Richardson

Kloffenstien

Those are all FV45's and above off the top of my head.

I'll name another dozen and a half 40's if you really want me to keep going.

 

 

On 8/1/2019 at 4:21 PM, ItsMeMario said:

 

Don't forget

Miguel Hiraldo

Chavez Young

Alejandro Kirk

Gabriel Moreno

Kevin Smith

Griffin Connine

Orelvis Martinez

 

Jays need to fill the 7 - 8 - 9 hole + DH ... thats NOT the end of the world ... And their SP prospects are elite!

 

On 8/1/2019 at 8:24 PM, mevins31 said:

 

How many of them are household/top 100 list guys? 75% of these guys won’t be big leaguers. I have interviewed Manoah personally. What are you basing him on? Has he thrown 40 professional ball innings yet? 

Mevins, just because you have no idea who these guys are doesn't mean that the list isn't EXACTLY what you asked for in your initial post. 

Edited by cs3
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23 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

And the Jays cupboard is bare amongst baseball people but I wouldn’t expect you to know that

Really?

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So I guess neither Kiley McDaniel, who has worked for multiple MLB front offices/scouting departments, (including NYY, ATL, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore), nor the scouts and current front office personnel that he is regularly in contact with, are considered "baseball people" as you so eloquently put it?

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39 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

I know who they are... get paid by an MLB team to interview prospects. Do you ? Or are you just on rotoworld forums? Lol. PM me I’ll prove it. And the Jays cupboard is bare amongst baseball people but I wouldn’t expect you to know that. All that exists in your baseball world is accessed through your safari on iPhone. But go on being all knowing 

Wow that happened. I was literally just about to compose a super sweet shout. To your credit:

1) Unlike the trolls, you've stuck around with input after Vlad started hitting. 

2) You were the only skeptic in the convo who was obviously watching at bats, and brought useful info. I interpreted your take that his swing didn't look major league to mean, along with the funny GB/FB/exit velo metrics, that he was likely pressing and swinging too hard -- but it was still a helpful take. Most of them are because:

3) Your observations are reality based. The BJs indeed suck, from the front office down to the ROK ballboy (with a handful of exceptions that have familiar looking last names . . . hmm, what does that say about their scouting?) The better Vlad becomes, the more critical it becomes for him to have men on base and protection in the lineup. In Toronto he has nothing of the latter. Zilch. And nothing coming down the pike (unless you believe in a Rowdy renaissance or the FO's ability to craft a decent trade / sign a decent stick). It should go without saying that his production will be moderated by that, but judging from the responses in thread it needed to be said.

4) My last point was about how polite you've been. Civil dissent is a lot trickier than baseball analysis, and I've been thinking I could learn a thing from some of the guys in here about how to be stubborn and nice at same time. Lousy timing then, on that "you have no idea who these guys are" agonism. Totally understandable that you'd flash your credentials in response. But FWIW I'd figured you for that sort of thing anyways, from the content you provide.

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2 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Is he breaking out?

 

100% yes. That's not to say he can't have another cold streak. But the odds are Vlad has already gotten past his initial struggles and from here he simply ascends. I'd put him in the elite class of 3B *right now*.

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1 hour ago, bradwatson said:

Is he breaking out?

 

Obviously they're different players and some circumstances are different too (Acuna had an injury), but this feels like Ronald Acuna Jr.’s rookie year in a way.

 

Acuna, 2018 first half: 43 G, 7 HR, .249 BA, .742 OPS

 

 Vlad, 2019 first half: 61 G, 8 HR, .249 BA, .741 OPS

 

Both guys were 20 year old mega-prospects with prodigious talent that got off to slower starts where they showed flashes, but not the consistency. We know what Acuna did in the second half and now this year. It feels like we're seeing that explosion from Vlad too right now. It’s all beginning to click.

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30 minutes ago, 20Duval904 said:

 

Obviously they're different players and some circumstances are different too (Acuna had an injury), but this feels like Ronald Acuna Jr.’s rookie year in a way.

 

Acuna, 2018 first half: 43 G, 7 HR, .249 BA, .742 OPS

 

 Vlad, 2019 first half: 61 G, 8 HR, .249 BA, .741 OPS

 

Both guys were 20 year old mega-prospects with prodigious talent that got off to slower starts where they showed flashes, but not the consistency. We know what Acuna did in the second half and now this year. It feels like we're seeing that explosion from Vlad too right now. It’s all beginning to click.

 

Interesting.  Didn't realize how similar their numbers were there.  I'd be disappointed with him in a re-draft, especially if you took him in the early rounds, but his dynasty value is still sky high.  

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58 minutes ago, 4catztoomany said:

 

Interesting.  Didn't realize how similar their numbers were there.  I'd be disappointed with him in a re-draft, especially if you took him in the early rounds, but his dynasty value is still sky high.  

Depends on how he finishes....could still return ADP value especially in H2H formats

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29 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Depends on how he finishes....could still return ADP value especially in H2H formats

 

This was a big point that gets forgotten in the rookie ADP argument. If he becomes an elite 3B for the end of the year/playoffs that's still super valuable to h2h owners. Acuna essentially won me a league last year. 

Roto, not so much. 

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36 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Depends on how he finishes....could still return ADP value especially in H2H formats

 

Very good point.  Early returns disappointed, but in the final weeks he could prove to be a difference maker in H2H leagues.

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Someone must have gifted him a sun lamp and a weight watchers subscription. What else could explain such a turnaround from this fat, vitamin-depleted excuse of a man.

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47 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

3 more hits today.

His last 15 games:

.466 BA

.508 OBP% (6 walks, 7 strikeouts)

.814 SLG% (5 homers, 6 doubles)

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So pretty much what was expected of him  as the only 80 hit tool ever.... 

 

🤯

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Can this be a reminder for the rest of time that sometimes prospects take more than 5 games to click? Geez. People ready to write him off after 1/2 of a season.  

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Posted (edited)

Those 91 dingers at the derby completely messed up his swing 

Edited by bigbossman
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1 hour ago, bigbossman said:

Those 91 dingers at the derby completely messed up his swing 

It’s weird that any individual would doubt his 80 hit tool.

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2 hours ago, 4catztoomany said:

Can this be a reminder for the rest of time that sometimes prospects take more than 5 games to click? Geez. People ready to write him off after 1/2 of a season.  

 

This can go the other way, too. Don't be too quick to chest thump over a nice hot streak. Let's see how it plays out over the final two months. 

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