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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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38 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

And even then his WAR is 0.8.  Great job with that first round pick in dynasty leagues.

I didn’t draft Vlad in my dynasty league for his glove prowess.  He’s a statue, he’ll be a DH one day.  Why are you bringing up WAR in fantasy forum?  

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I didn’t draft Vlad in my dynasty league for his glove prowess.  He’s a statue, he’ll be a DH one day.  Why are you bringing up WAR in fantasy forum?  

OK fine, doubt many people drafted him to be 15% above average at 3b either lol.  Since his wRC+ is only 115.  Or how about doubt he was drafted that early to be about the 6th best ROOKIE this year for fantasy purposes.  Especially when all the others were drafted at least a round later, and most MUCH later.  [...]  Vlad was grossly overrated if this is what we are going to get.  Where's his .300 average and 40 bombs?  You telling me 13 hrs in 337 abs is good nowadays in the MLB?  Below average power currently in this landscape.  He could be great, but right now he merely looks good.

Edited by tonycpsu
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I think by any current measurement of production Vlad was grossly overdrafted.  Don't think there is any argument against that personally.  1st round top 5 dynasty pick who isn't even in the top 5 of all rookies this season?  13 HRs in over 300 abs?  Gleybor Torres has that many HRs just against Baltimore.

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He does face a lot of Baltimore pitching in the final 2 weeks of the season, so even though he’s bad, he could easily win some championships.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, daynlokki said:

I think by any current measurement of production Vlad was grossly overdrafted.  Don't think there is any argument against that personally.  1st round top 5 dynasty pick who isn't even in the top 5 of all rookies this season?  13 HRs in over 300 abs?  Gleybor Torres has that many HRs just against Baltimore.

can we really assess dynasty value after 90 games?

Edited by osb_tensor
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3 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

can we really assess dynasty value after 90 games?

For a guy who was touted as someone who was supposed to come up and immediately be a .300 with 30hrs guys this season you can perceive at least some semblance of a drop in value based on where he was drafted. 

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

For a guy who was touted as someone who was supposed to come up and immediately be a .300 with 30hrs guys this season you can perceive at least some semblance of a drop in value based on where he was drafted. 

No, I cannot, certainly not in a dynasty draft. Over the last 30 days (random round number), he's hit .333/.395/.574 (155 wRC+).

I'm not sure if you're trolling at this point, like to argue, or just refuse to admit when you make a mistake. whatever the case, I think it's fairly obvious you made a comment that ended up looking silly and were called out on it. No shame, bro. It's a long road that has no turns.. y'know?

I imagine most everyone that owns him in a dynasty is pretty happy right now. The buy-low is closing, if not already closed. ☮️

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18 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Where's his .300 average and 40 bombs?  You telling me 13 hrs in 337 abs is good nowadays in the MLB?  Below average power currently in this landscape.  He could be great, but right now he merely looks good.

So first you're going to make asinine comments about drafting Vladi Jr. in dynasty, and then try to back up that lame argument by saying a 20 year old with a 115 wRC+ in his first half season in MLB isn't good enough right this second? That logic is terrible for multiple reasons.

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5 hours ago, cs3 said:

So first you're going to make asinine comments about drafting Vladi Jr. in dynasty, and then try to back up that lame argument by saying a 20 year old with a 115 wRC+ in his first half season in MLB isn't good enough right this second? That logic is terrible for multiple reasons.

What I’ve been saying and seems to be going over your head is that the current value he is putting up whether in single season or dynasty leagues is nowhere near the value of the pick he was taken with. There’s no debating that. Yes, he could vastly improve, but right now what he is showing overall is less value then rookies you could have taken 30 rounds later like Chavis. The hype on this guy is starting to remind me of all the Buxton homers who to this day will tell you he’s gonna go 30/30 with a .300 average in his prime. 

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

What I’ve been saying and seems to be going over your head is that the current value he is putting up whether in single season or dynasty leagues is nowhere near the value of the pick he was taken with. There’s no debating that. Yes, he could vastly improve, but right now what he is showing overall is less value then rookies you could have taken 30 rounds later like Chavis. The hype on this guy is starting to remind me of all the Buxton homers who to this day will tell you he’s gonna go 30/30 with a .300 average in his prime.  

Your points aren't going over anybody's head. They're just not good. Anybody who was a fan of Vlad and has changed their opinion after a half-season's worth of at-bats at age 20 is a fool. Likewise, anybody who had concerns about him and changed their opinion after the same half-season's of at-bats is a fool. Likewise, with anybody who thinks they've been vindicated, somehow. He's a hitter with huge upside who has a body type that raises some concerns about health and long-term defensive home.

And besides that, you assume everybody in dynasties took him with a top-5 pick. There are a huge variety of leagues where he's gone in different years and at different spots and with different settings. The only thing I do know is that in all of these leagues, I'd rather have him than Chavis.

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8 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

Your points aren't going over anybody's head. They're just not good. Anybody who was a fan of Vlad and has changed their opinion after a half-season's worth of at-bats at age 20 is a fool. Likewise, anybody who had concerns about him and changed their opinion after the same half-season's of at-bats is a fool. Likewise, with anybody who thinks they've been vindicated, somehow. He's a hitter with huge upside who has a body type that raises some concerns about health and long-term defensive home.

And besides that, you assume everybody in dynasties took him with a top-5 pick. There are a huge variety of leagues where he's gone in different years and at different spots and with different settings. The only thing I do know is that in all of these leagues, I'd rather have him than Chavis.

Every dynasty I’ve seen that drafted last season he went top five. I get you’d rather have him than Chavis but would you rather have him as a top 5 pick or Chavis around pick 450-500?

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16 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Every dynasty I’ve seen that drafted last season he went top five. I get you’d rather have him than Chavis but would you rather have him as a top 5 pick or Chavis around pick 450-500?

Vlad as a top 5 lol

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Vlad as a top 5?!? He might be dh eligible only by 21...

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34 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Vlad as a top 5?!? He might be dh eligible only by 21...

he'll be 21 next season and has way more than enough ABs to qualify for 3B in any format for 2020. want to try for another number?

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48 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Every dynasty I’ve seen that drafted last season he went top five. I get you’d rather have him than Chavis but would you rather have him as a top 5 pick or Chavis around pick 450-500?

That is an extremely easy thing to say, mildly difficult to argue, and improbable to prove as the norm.  You are trying to base arguments around things that have no foundation.  He went 2nd round in two of my dynasties does that now mean that that is the norm and I have enough to argue against/for it?

 

As for the shortsightedness of this Vlad having some semblance of value loss in dynasties after 90 games all I keep remembering is another top 25 prospect 3B that underwhelmed his first 244 games and played his games in Coors.  His first year he had 133 games and had .267/10 HR, his second year he had 111 games .287/18 HR, and his third year he became Nolan Arenado.  It's just way way way too early to make such concrete assessments about 3-5 yrs from now.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Every dynasty I’ve seen that drafted last season he went top five. I get you’d rather have him than Chavis but would you rather have him as a top 5 pick or Chavis around pick 450-500?

Please stop harping on this "every dynasty he went top 5" stuff and thinking this is truth and a blanket statement. Just because it is your experience doesn't mean everyone else thinks this way. You either make an assumption that everyone's dynasty draft played out this way or you believe it is the way it should have played out. So I guess the questions that need to be answered is how many times you drafted Vlad in the top 5? And where did you rank Vlad going into your multiple dynasty drafts? 

You're walking with the gods here. Some of the posters you find yourself going back and forth with have been doing this for a long time and are quite knowledgeable. I'm not saying the default position is to agree with the long time posters here. It is fine to disagree, but please stop trying to convince everyone that you are right all the time. I struggle to find the value of a discussion in August about where Vlad got drafted in the offseason in a dynasty league that will never draft again? Why is it important to have 20/20 hindsight and talk about Chavis in Vlad's thread? (Trust me, we all get the point you are trying to make.) Why is it important to determine dynasty outcomes less than 5 months after they started? Please bring this topic back on track. Baltimore scheduling. Vitamin D. Recent adjustments and performance. The remainder of his 2019 outlook. 

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I'm not sure, but I do believe many Dynasty Leagues began before 2019 where many people acquired Vlad for substantially less than a top 5 pick. The only person who seems to have a problem with Vlad going top 5 is the same person who took him top 3 apparently. Shrug emoji. Either way, whether Vlad was worth a 1st round pick in a Dynasty startup in 2019 (a very small percentage of overall leagues), will not be answered this season. 

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Posted (edited)

Been holding Vlad since Aug 17th, 2015 in a dynasty...All he cost me was an Aaron Sanchez call up to replace a throw in player in a 2 for 1 deal, I'm still licking my wounds from being fleeced there (crossed-eyed emojii), can't imagine wasting a top 7 round pick in a start up dynasty much less a top 5 pick..sheesh, guys that know scouts are the toughest in determining a prospects long term value after only 1/2 a season as a 20 yr old here, huh? I gotta spend less time reading this drivel, it'll turn your mind into mush

Edited by FISH ON

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44 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Been holding Vlad since Aug 17th, 2015 in a dynasty...All he cost me was an Aaron Sanchez call up to replace a throw in player in a 2 for 1 deal, I'm still licking my wounds from being fleeced there (crossed-eyed emojii), can't imagine wasting a top 7 round pick in a start up dynasty much less a top 5 pick..sheesh, guys that know scouts are the toughest in determining a prospects long term value after only 1/2 a season as a 20 yr old here, huh? I gotta spend less time reading this drivel, it'll turn your mind into mush

Which would be great value and why I brought up his hype going into drafts LAST year as the baseline.  His hype was just too much for the level of value you are getting.  1st year dynasties, not very many teams who drafted Vlad will be going to the playoffs this season.  His cost was just too prohibitive.  As I have said, he could be great, but right now even at 20, his stats only say good.  This isn't something that just has happened to Vlad alone, prospect stock as a whole throughout dynasty leagues is incredibly high.  Every year we have the next generational talent coming.  First it was Buxton, then Profar, now Vlad, Wander Franco and Jo Adell are both starting up this year and will go incredibly high.  The point of all this is that people need to calm down on their projections.  There is a reason scouts no longer try to comp to all-time greats with prospects, because the majority fail to reach even a majority of the hype.

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1 hour ago, thezing1 said:

Please stop harping on this "every dynasty he went top 5" stuff and thinking this is truth and a blanket statement. Just because it is your experience doesn't mean everyone else thinks this way. You either make an assumption that everyone's dynasty draft played out this way or you believe it is the way it should have played out. So I guess the questions that need to be answered is how many times you drafted Vlad in the top 5? And where did you rank Vlad going into your multiple dynasty drafts? 

You're walking with the gods here. Some of the posters you find yourself going back and forth with have been doing this for a long time and are quite knowledgeable. I'm not saying the default position is to agree with the long time posters here. It is fine to disagree, but please stop trying to convince everyone that you are right all the time. I struggle to find the value of a discussion in August about where Vlad got drafted in the offseason in a dynasty league that will never draft again? Why is it important to have 20/20 hindsight and talk about Chavis in Vlad's thread? (Trust me, we all get the point you are trying to make.) Why is it important to determine dynasty outcomes less than 5 months after they started? Please bring this topic back on track. Baltimore scheduling. Vitamin D. Recent adjustments and performance. The remainder of his 2019 outlook. 

Please don't miscategorize what I said by taking it out of context.  I plainly stated 'every dynasty I'VE seen has had him go in the top five.'  I haven't once said it's every dynasty or even asserted that and it is arguing in bad faith, especially for a moderator to take something THAT far out of context.  To answer your question between my five major friends and all the dynasties I've been in (around 30 overall), his ADP was right around 4, with a high of 2.  It's important because I've already brought up some flaws in the minors which still seem to be glossed over (mainly struggles VS lefties and his current home/away splits).  He definitely has warts and that wasn't what he was purported to be.  He was supposed to come out of the gates with an 80 hit and 80 power and go straight to 30 hrs, .300 average, close to .400 obp.  He's nowhere near that, even with a full season of at bats... during a year where every home run record is being broken.  There is a reason Fangraphs has his hit at 70 now.  It's not because he's hitting at the level everyone thought he would. 

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22 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Please don't miscategorize what I said by taking it out of context.  I plainly stated 'every dynasty I'VE seen has had him go in the top five.'  I haven't once said it's every dynasty or even asserted that and it is arguing in bad faith, especially for a moderator to take something THAT far out of context.  To answer your question between my five major friends and all the dynasties I've been in (around 30 overall), his ADP was right around 4, with a high of 2.  It's important because I've already brought up some flaws in the minors which still seem to be glossed over (mainly struggles VS lefties and his current home/away splits).  He definitely has warts and that wasn't what he was purported to be.  He was supposed to come out of the gates with an 80 hit and 80 power and go straight to 30 hrs, .300 average, close to .400 obp.  He's nowhere near that, even with a full season of at bats... during a year where every home run record is being broken.  There is a reason Fangraphs has his hit at 70 now.  It's not because he's hitting at the level everyone thought he would. 

Trust me, I gave up the idea of "arguing" with you about 6 months ago. I find zero value in a back and forth where the goal posts move every other sentence. Just read the second half of your post and it is "they said" and "Fangraphs has him"...dude, they focus on real life and not fantasy. "They" is who exactly?

You never answered my questions. I asked how many times YOU drafted him in the top 5 of your dynasty leagues and where you had him in your pre-draft dynasty rankings. Here they are again:

how many times you drafted Vlad in the top 5?

And where did you rank Vlad going into your multiple dynasty drafts? 

 

 

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1 minute ago, thezing1 said:

Trust me, I gave up the idea of "arguing" with you about 6 months ago. I find zero value in a back and forth where the goal posts move every other sentence. Just read the second half of your post and it is "they said" and "Fangraphs has him"...dude, they focus on real life and not fantasy. "They" is who exactly?

You never answered my questions. I asked how many times YOU drafted him in the top 5 of your dynasty leagues and where you had him in your pre-draft dynasty rankings. Here they are again:

how many times you drafted Vlad in the top 5?

And where did you rank Vlad going into your multiple dynasty drafts? 

 

 

A scouting grade effects fantasy contribution just as equally as real life stats... in fact, scouting grades are thrown about the prospect boards every day.  Are you seriously telling us that they have nothing to do with fantasy?
I drafted Vlad once in the top 5, and immediately traded him for pick 7, pick 20, and a pick around the 50ish region.  Literally only drafted him to trade to the highest bidder knowing his dynasty value is stupid high for what his stats will most likely be.  As an overall dynasty ranking I had him in the 25-30 range based on his weight issues at the time of my drafts, along with his defensive liabilities meaning that in the future, he will most likely be relegated to DH, which is a huge dropoff in most leagues for value.  
I'd like you to apologize for misquoting me, I notice you didn't bring that up.  That would definitely be categorized as arguing in bad faith and as a moderator, I believe you should be held to higher standards than the rest of the forum.  I doubt you would let anyone else grossly misquote another poster like that, completely making what I said morph into something else completely.

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

A scouting grade effects fantasy contribution just as equally as real life stats... in fact, scouting grades are thrown about the prospect boards every day.  Are you seriously telling us that they have nothing to do with fantasy?
I drafted Vlad once in the top 5, and immediately traded him for pick 7, pick 20, and a pick around the 50ish region.  Literally only drafted him to trade to the highest bidder knowing his dynasty value is stupid high for what his stats will most likely be.  As an overall dynasty ranking I had him in the 25-30 range based on his weight issues at the time of my drafts, along with his defensive liabilities meaning that in the future, he will most likely be relegated to DH, which is a huge dropoff in most leagues for value.  
I'd like you to apologize for misquoting me, I notice you didn't bring that up.  That would definitely be categorized as arguing in bad faith and as a moderator, I believe you should be held to higher standards than the rest of the forum.  I doubt you would let anyone else grossly misquote another poster like that, completely making what I said morph into something else completely.

Nah, I don't owe you anything more than the same amount of respect I give every member of this community. 

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57 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

.  He was supposed to come out of the gates with an 80 hit and 80 power and go straight to 30 hrs, .300 average, close to .400 obp. 

 

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. His ADP would have been much higher in redraft if he was supposed to do that. That was basically the optimistic upside projection, one which many people were smart enough to not go near the cost in redraft. 

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