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Kyler Murray 2019 Outlook

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This is one of many reasons I’m completely out on Murray.  I hope he succeeds but really don’t see much that will translate to the NFL game without proper coaching/teaching which he doesn’t have in Kingsbury.

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7 hours ago, Jvanspro said:

I hope he succeeds but really don’t see much that will translate to the NFL game without proper coaching/teaching which he doesn’t have in Kingsbury.

 

Well I guess you see things that most nfl scouts dont cuss almost everyone says hes better than the 5 qbs that went in the 1st last year and that his one and only knock is his height which is what lowers his draft grade. That being said those scouts are wrong alot so you have a good chance at being correct. 

Some guys like chris Simms have said the only guys better than him coming out of college in the last 3 drafts were mahomes and Watson. 

I agree with you on his coach I doubt a failed college coach will come in and tear up the NFL but he will probably run for 600 yards and get plenty of garbage time and 3rd string defenses. I'd take him in redrafts late late.

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14 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

All in all, I see too many risks and won't draft him in 2019. In Dynasty it's probably different, but in redraft or auction I don't see a reason; too little upside and too much risk. 

 

no redraft. got it.

10 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

His only potential value is in redraft.

 

only redraft. check.

 

leaves me with BEST BALL or baseball

kyler.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

 

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10 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

His only potential value is in redraft.

 

Any young player with redraft value has dynasty value...they can always be sold high after a few good games if you don't believe in them. 

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11 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

His only potential value is in redraft.

Really? Rarely do rookie QB's offer value in redraft. His value is in dynasty and keeper leagues.

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15 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well I guess you see things that most nfl scouts dont cuss almost everyone says hes better than the 5 qbs that went in the 1st last year and that his one and only knock is his height which is what lowers his draft grade. That being said those scouts are wrong alot so you have a good chance at being correct. 

Some guys like chris Simms have said the only guys better than him coming out of college in the last 3 drafts were mahomes and Watson. 

I agree with you on his coach I doubt a failed college coach will come in and tear up the NFL but he will probably run for 600 yards and get plenty of garbage time and 3rd string defenses. I'd take him in redrafts late late.

Quarterbacks are super hard to predict, team and analysts are wrong much more then they are right.  

 

I believe the concerns I have with Murray are real.  There is no doubt he can run, probably one of the better running quarterbacks I’ve seen.  We’ll see how that will translate to the NFL.  Will he choose to try to use his legs over his arm?  That’s slightly concerning at the NFL level.  Could be great from a fantasy standpoint but could also end up like RGIII in terms of injury.

The main concerns I have though are in terms of running an offense and accuracy.  He has an NFL arm no doubt but his accuracy is very mediocre.  He was able to get away with that at the collegiate level especially against the weak defenses Oklahoma played.  The windows are much smaller and defenses are much faster in the NFL, his accuracy must improve.  Secondly, I question his ability to properly read defenses and go through his progressions.  Maybe this is just something he didn’t have to do at Oklahoma.  In the tape I’ve watched I saw a guy that only threw when a player was open and didn’t anticipate well.  In other words he didn’t show he knew the coverage well or possibly just didn’t trust it, in turn he would only throw when the WR was already open not before.  That’s a major red flag for me.  You cannot do that at the NFL level.

 

His footwork is also very questionable, this can be solved with proper coaching.  However, KK is a rookie coach himself at the NFL and really his college track record is suspect itself.  

I hope I’m wrong and he succeeds but I think he may have a real rough road ahead of him.

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18 minutes ago, Jvanspro said:

Secondly, I question his ability to properly read defenses and go through his progressions.  Maybe this is just something he didn’t have to do at Oklahoma.  In the tape I’ve watched I saw a guy that only threw when a player was open and didn’t anticipate well.

In general I agree, and I am also highly sceptical, but this actually seems to be something he does well - at least for a College QB.

Check the vid I posted earlier, around 2:34 and further:

Again, I'm also sceptical, but in this I see a kid that has a good basis. Mostly I'm concerned he won't get the time and/or the coaching to develop as a rookie.

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15 hours ago, devaster said:

Really? Rarely do rookie QB's offer value in redraft. His value is in dynasty and keeper leagues.

 

2018 Josh Allen, Mayfield,

2017 Watson, 

2012 Luck, RG3, Wilson

2011 Cam

 

That's not rare.

 

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56 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

2018 Josh Allen, Mayfield,

2017 Watson, 

2012 Luck, RG3, Wilson

2011 Cam

 

That's not rare.

 

These cases are not supporting your argument.  

 

Watson played 6 games his rookie year.

Mayfield was OK but you didn’t need him at all.  Very inconsistent, same with Allen.

 

Really the only ones I would tend to agree with from you list that made a real impact in terms of fantasy were Cam and Luck.

 

so, yes it’s very rare.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

2018 Josh Allen, Mayfield,

2017 Watson, 

2012 Luck, RG3, Wilson

2011 Cam

 

That's not rare.

 

 

When you consider that four year gap between 2017 and 2012, it is rare.

Kizer, Trubisky. Prescott, Goff. Winston, Mariota. Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr.

Also, Mayfield and Allen didn't produce substantial numbers until their latter halves of the year. Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen... rookies from last year that weren't on the radar.

Bottom line: Avoid drafting Murray in redraft leagues. He'll probably be waiver bait. I might target Kyler Murray if he's in the second round in my keeper/dynasty league, but I'm not gunning for him.

Edited by dropshadows

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20 hours ago, devaster said:

Really? Rarely do rookie QB's offer value in redraft. His value is in dynasty and keeper leagues.

 

For me I just dont think he will make it, so guessing his first year will be his most successful.

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14 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

For me I just dont think he will make it, so guessing his first year will be his most successful.

Even if that were to happen it wouldn't mean he has any value in redraft.

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Even Lamar Jackson was startable at times last year... Murray is definitely on the redraft radar. 

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2 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Even Lamar Jackson was startable at times last year... Murray is definitely on the redraft radar. 

Lamar Jackson wasn't being drafted in redraft leagues. I drafted Lamar in dynasty, but he was available on the wire last season. Partly because he wasn't the starter.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Lamar Jackson wasn't being drafted in redraft leagues. I drafted Lamar in dynasty, but he was available on the wire last season. Partly because he wasn't the starter.

Partly? I think that's the primary reason LJ wasn't being drafted in redraft leagues... also didn't have the draft capital or pedigree KM has. I wasn't trying to compare their 2 situations (KM>>>LJ) but to dismiss KM as a redraft option is frankly ridiculous.

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I'm not outright dismissing him, but to say he has much value in redraft is questionable. He would be a last round flyer or available on the wire in most redraft leagues. It isn't an attractive team or supporting cast. No one has any clue how the offense will translate to the NFL. And then there is a rookie learning curve.

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'm not outright dismissing him, but to say he has much value in redraft is questionable. He would be a last round flyer or available on the wire in most redraft leagues. It isn't an attractive team or supporting cast. No one has any clue how the offense will translate to the NFL. And then there is a rookie learning curve.

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

I think taking him as your QB1 in redraft is crazy.  There are so many proven QB’s and coordinators/systems I’d much rather invest in.  He’s nothing more then a last round flier for me.  I wouldn’t even do that though as I never carry two QB’s.

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Here's a rough list of QB's I would draft before drafting Kyler Murray:
Luck, Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Brees, Watson, Ryan, Goff, Wilson, Wentz, Roethlisberger, Allen, Rivers, Newton, Carr, Brady, Cousins, Trubisky.

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26 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'm not outright dismissing him, but to say he has much value in redraft is questionable. He would be a last round flyer or available on the wire in most redraft leagues. It isn't an attractive team or supporting cast. No one has any clue how the offense will translate to the NFL. And then there is a rookie learning curve.

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

Yeah I wasn't suggesting anyone take him as their QB1, even in a 16-team league. But with injuries and byes it's pretty likely he ends up being started at some point in just about every league. 

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3 hours ago, devaster said:

I'm not outright dismissing him, but to say he has much value in redraft is questionable. He would be a last round flyer or available on the wire in most redraft leagues. It isn't an attractive team or supporting cast. No one has any clue how the offense will translate to the NFL. And then there is a rookie learning curve.

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

Nah, too many safer options out there. I’m curious to know how much leg work he’ll get though. 

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4 hours ago, devaster said:

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

I would be willing to take him as both my QB1 and end of draft pick. Streaming QBs can be a great plan and Week 1 vs the Lions isn't scary for that strategy.

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4 hours ago, devaster said:

I'm not outright dismissing him, but to say he has much value in redraft is questionable. He would be a last round flyer or available on the wire in most redraft leagues. It isn't an attractive team or supporting cast. No one has any clue how the offense will translate to the NFL. And then there is a rookie learning curve.

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

 

I draft late round and stream qb's unless  an elite qb is severely mispriced on draft day. Murray+lamar are my end of draft targets and I am ok playing either of the the firts couple of weeks while I figure things out. Legs are real fresh early season and no nagging injuries and defenses can be caught by surprise

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7 hours ago, devaster said:

Would anyone actually consider taking Murray as their QB1 or higher than an end of the draft pick? A lot of teams ride with 1 QB until the bye week.

 

In my 2qb auction league I'm actually debating on going the zero qb route and was thinking about trying to get Lamar, murray, allen for the cheap, but idk if I got the balls for it. 

So let me have guys tell me how stupid crazy that sounds. 

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23 hours ago, devaster said:

Even if that were to happen it wouldn't mean he has any value in redraft.

 

I thought I just said he had MORE value in redraft. That is what I meant anyhow.

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On 4/26/2019 at 3:22 PM, Jvanspro said:

Murray will be a colossal bust.  

 

nothing colossal about murray other than the potential of his receiving corps.

more like a hobbit-sized bust, but the point remains.

On 4/26/2019 at 6:59 PM, devaster said:

I thought he was 1/4 inch shorter than Wilson.

 

the rookie giants

here murray is standing next to marquise brown who measures 5'8".

maybe we need more in-depth statistics on their hair, but i do not trust the stats that have murray at 5'10" + 1/8 of an inch.

murray-height-final.jpg?quality=90&strip

On 5/28/2019 at 6:02 AM, Jvanspro said:

He has an NFL arm no doubt but his accuracy is very mediocre.  He was able to get away with that at the collegiate level especially against the weak defenses Oklahoma played.  The windows are much smaller and defenses are much faster in the NFL, his accuracy must improve.

 

relatively speaking, kyler murray is much smaller in the NFL and the defenses are both faster and LARGER. they're also harder-hitting.

murray is clearly marquise-brown-sized, but he's not as quick and as a QB murray will have the ball every play and will the focus of attack for some awfully mean and angry defenses. if you've ever seen a rottweiler ripping apart a stuffed animal, you can anticipate what it will be like in arizona.

Brown-Murray.jpg

14f23354ab9ab6f2121090831723.gif

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