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Kyler Murray 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

here murray is standing next to marquise brown who measures 5'8".

I find measurements for Brown alternatively at 5'9 (Pro Football Reference) or 5'10 (NFL).

I'm guessing both are 5'9, but by the end of the season, Murray could be at least an inch shorter.

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11 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm guessing both are 5'9, but by the end of the season, Murray could be at least an inch shorter.

 

murray's corrected height projection at season's end shown here in this simulation

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On 5/28/2019 at 9:24 PM, Stonej14 said:

 

In my 2qb auction league I'm actually debating on going the zero qb route and was thinking about trying to get Lamar, murray, allen for the cheap, but idk if I got the balls for it. 

So let me have guys tell me how stupid crazy that sounds. 

 

Highly doubt they'd all be available in a 2 QB league toward end of draft. Especially if it's 12 man. Might not even get 1. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Highly doubt they'd all be available in a 2 QB league toward end of draft. Especially if it's 12 man. Might not even get 1. 

 

It's an Auction league so I guess I shoulda said "for cheap". I'll atleast always have a chance to try and get them cheap

Edited by Stonej14
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I think it's hilarious that anyone is talking about drafting him at all in redraft except REALLY large/deep leagues. Rookie QBs rarely do much and this team has about oh 100 issues and question marks and he has his share, hardly a Luck-type sure thing. Look for a high draft pick next year. Maybe they'll draft another QB with that #1 pick lol. 

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12 minutes ago, bomont said:

I think it's hilarious that anyone is talking about drafting him at all in redraft except REALLY large/deep leagues. Rookie QBs rarely do much and this team has about oh 100 issues and question marks and he has his share, hardly a Luck-type sure thing. Look for a high draft pick next year. Maybe they'll draft another QB with that #1 pick lol. 

 

Useful rookies are becoming more common but still really rare. I dont know how good he will be early on but I bet by the end of the year he will have some value like Baker or Josh Allen. In 2 QB leagues I'd draft him late. His rushing ability should make him relevant as well. 

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16 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Useful rookies are becoming more common but still really rare.

The past 10 years, 95 QBs had a 4000+ yd season, with a 31/13 TD/INT ratio on average.

Out of those, only 3 were rookies (Newton, Luck, Winston) with on average 22/17 TD/INT.

It's just not worth it. In the current ADP, out of the first 17 QBs, I would feel safe with probably 14 of those. And then I'm supposed to pick Murray at QB12?

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51 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

The past 10 years, 95 QBs had a 4000+ yd season, with a 31/13 TD/INT ratio on average.

Out of those, only 3 were rookies (Newton, Luck, Winston) with on average 22/17 TD/INT.

It's just not worth it. In the current ADP, out of the first 17 QBs, I would feel safe with probably 14 of those. And then I'm supposed to pick Murray at QB12?

 

I agree with you for the most part. Rookies are far more successful than years prior which makes more fantasy useful qbs.

You listed just passing stats which are particularly high so no there isnt many rooks accomplishing that specific feat but as for rookie QBs who should have been drafted in fantasy you have much more recently than the previous eras of football.

Cam, luck, and Winston as you said earlier. RG3, Russell Wilson, and dak were all top 12 guys. 

Then you got guys who were definitely usable in fantasy but took a couple weeks to get off the ground or had some injuries. (Definitely not draftable but usuable later in the year especially if your streaming the qb position)

Deshaun Watson, Baker, Josh Allen,  Lamar Jackson. 

I'd argue that's alot more than previous eras but maybe I'm wrong I dont know all the numbers

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

RG3, Russell Wilson, and dak were all top 12 guys. 

Yeah, fair game; they were #5, #11 and #6 in fantasy points their rookie years.

13 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I'd argue that's alot more than previous eras but maybe I'm wrong I dont know all the numbers

Yes, absolutely. The game is changing (and it always will be). I just don't think this (drafting rookie QBs) is where the smart money is; it's risky, and the pay-off is relatively limited, especially with the top-level of QBs getting wider and wider.

Edit: If you can get a solid QB at a low price, why risk a higher price for a risky rookie who probably won't do better and might well do worse? That's a losing proposition to my mind.

Edited by Boudewijn
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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Edit: If you can get a solid QB at a low price, why risk a higher price for a risky rookie who probably won't do better and might well do worse? That's a losing proposition to my mind.

I think the point is he has humungous upside in the 9th round.  QB#12 or not it's still the 9th round.  If he doesn't work out you pick up a QB on waivers, that's how deep the position is.  Look at what Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen did last season.  Kyler Murray is a better passer than both of them and still provides the rushing floor.

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23 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think the point is he has humungous upside in the 9th round.

Define humungous please. Big Ben is going a round later and had the past three seasons 4400 yd on average with 30/14 TD/INT.

How much upside do you assign to Murray?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Define humungous please. Big Ben is going a round later and had the past three seasons 4400 yd on average with 30/14 TD/INT.

How much upside do you assign to Murray?

Well obviously the upside is the unknown.  We just saw Patrick Mahomes throw 50 TD's is his first season as a starter.  Murray is playing in an innovative air raid offense and provides rushing upside as well.  His upside ranges anywhere from QB1 to complete dud.  The point is in a league that only starts 1 QB(which makes the position easily replaceable) it's worth finding out in the 9th round.

Edited by RMJ_12
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Don’t want to be a victim of overreaction to training camp, however Kyler has looked really impressive thus far. I’m actually thinking about rolling the dice and waiting on QB and making him my QB1 for the season and then drafting my backup a round later. Any thoughts on Murray going forward?

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On 6/18/2019 at 4:38 AM, Boudewijn said:

Define humungous please. Big Ben is going a round later and had the past three seasons 4400 yd on average with 30/14 TD/INT.

How much upside do you assign to Murray?

 

The rushing yards Murray

will give you is what makes Kyler more valuable than big Ben.

 

That and Arizona defense is bad and Kingsbury wants to run as many plays as possible. If he starts all 16 games he could put up really nice #s. The rushing stats are not to be under estimated.

 

Rookie QBs struggle some but Lamar Jackson is a bad passer and he was a stud fantasy QB at the end of the year last year. RGIII was going crazy his rookie year in Washington.  It's always a question mark how a rookie QB will do but there is precedent for some rookies to put up gaudy stats 

 

Just a couple years ago Deshaun Watson was destroying everybody before he blew his ACL out. It is rare but Murray was drafted #1 overall for a reason, his athletic talent is on par with these other guys who set the league on fire.

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Dak Prescott throws 21 or 22 tds a year and never gets to 4000 yards but is always a qb1 because he gets 300 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs a year like clock work. Murray could easily get 20 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs as well but hes athletic enough to get 600 or 700 rushing yards as well. 

 

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Not really sure why there are so many people in this thread who aren't liking Kyler Murray.

Granted, college success doesn't = NFL success, but the dude threw 42 TDs against just 7 INT last year, and completed almost 70% of his passes.

 

Let me lay out some PROS for those who are on the fence:

  • Now, he's going to a system with Kliff Kingsbury, who has openly stated that he wants to run as many plays as possible. More plays = more opportunities.
  • He might just be a better runner than Lamar Jackson, and I'd be willing to bet that he has a much more accurate arm than Jackson as well.
  • David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk - all highly athletic, high IQ players to play alongside Kyler.
  • Yes, his offensive line sucks. But so did Deshaun Watsons his rookie season...We all saw how that went for those first 6 games before he got injured...35 FPPG was it?
  • You can likely count on Murray rushing for 40-70 yards each game and 8-12 carries, with half of those being on broken plays where he makes something out of nothing.
  • The Cardinals will likely be playing from behind in many of their games, forcing them to move away from David Johnson running plays.
  • David Johnson is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league, and Murray will likely use him as a safety valve when plays break down.
  • Lamar Jackson was pretty bad at times last year throwing...only once completing more than 60% of his passes in a game....and he managed that by 0.9%. Murray, especially with weapons in DJ, Fitzgerald and Kirk, should have no problem becoming a much more consistent thrower than Lamar. 

 

FLOOR / CEILING

Floor: 3,200 Passing Yards, 22 Touchdowns, 12 Interceptions // 67 Carries, 475 Rushing Yards, 4 Touchdowns

Ceiling: 4,100 Passing Yards, 34 Touchdowns, 10 Interceptions // 100 Carries, 750 Rushing Yards, 6 Touchdowns

 

CONCLUSION:

I think if you're playing the waiting game for QB, (meaning you're not selecting a QB through the first 60-70 picks of the draft, Kyler lines up next to a bunch of high-upside QBs like Goff, Winston and Wentz. I don't think he's too high, or too low. But you could do a lot worse than picking Murray at say...Pick 75/80. 

 

I think on average, owners will be looking at a floor of about 18 or so points per week. Yes, he'll have some lackluster games. But wouldn't be surprised to see him have a handful of "week winner games" as well. 

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I’m a huge Murray fan this year. The problem is that by draft day, and as the hype machine continues to roll on, everyone else will be too. It doesn’t help that I’ve got two Cards fans and two Sooner fans in my main. 

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The intriguing thing to me about Murray, which sounds stupid, and I usually hate saying things like this, but the guy is just an athlete and a baller.  He seems to be great at everything he does.  I know anyone in the NFL is a "great athlete", but this guy just seems to keep defying the odds and winning at everything.  High round MLB pick and then gets to play a season as the starting QB and ends up going #1 overall despite having millions on the table from the Oakland A's.  Too small for the QB position but then goes out and dominates.

He's just such an elite athlete all around, that I find it hard to believe he won't succeed.  And being such a good athlete, there are many ways he can beat you.  You can say most rookie QB's don't succeed, but most rookie QB's come into the league with huge holes in their game, and aren't half the athlete that Murray is.  

Part of me is scared of drafting him at his current price, but part of me just wants to do it to be on the hype train and see where it takes me.  You can draft Kyler, plus a more "solid" option like Cousins or Garoppolo, and still only be investing pretty minor draft capital.  

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Everything I've read about Murray so far has been positive but I wouldn't draft him before the 10th round with the exception of 2 qb leagues.  

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54 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Everything I've read about Murray so far has been positive but I wouldn't draft him before the 10th round with the exception of 2 qb leagues.  

I don’t draft QBs high but I’d make an exception for Murray. With his running ability and that offense (and they’re bad defense), he’s gonna finish top 5.

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1 hour ago, Fierylady said:

I don’t draft QBs high but I’d make an exception for Murray. With his running ability and that offense (and they’re bad defense), he’s gonna finish top 5.

 

Top 5 is wayyyyy up their. Mahommes, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, luck, Watson, Mayfield, Cam, Wilson, Matt ryan... No way he beats 6 of those guys imo

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Fierylady said:

I don’t draft QBs high but I’d make an exception for Murray. With his running ability and that offense (and they’re bad defense), he’s gonna finish top 5.

That's a very bold prediction.  Unlike Mahomes, most rookie qb's have growing pains and I don't expect Murray to be an exception.  I think that he has an outside chance to finish in the top 15 qb's this year if all breaks right and he doesn't throw a lot of interceptions but I would say no way for the top 5.  Doing well in training camp scrimmages is one thing but Murray is even shorter than Russell Wilson so we'll see how he does in the preseason against teams that aren't his own.  I've seen him likened to Michael Vick who was also short for a qb but Vick was 6'0" and Murray could be 5'8" which is 4 inches shorter.

Edited by sjm76

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3 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

Top 5 is wayyyyy up their. Mahommes, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, luck, Watson, Mayfield, Cam, Wilson, Matt ryan... No way he beats 6 of those guys imo

 

I agree with you completely but you can count out some of these guys as well. 

Wilson probably wont throw enough times to be top 5 and he doesnt run it like he used to. I think his top 5 days are behind him for as long as they want to run it the most times in the league (which is just baffling when your qb is Russell Wilson)

Mayfield hasnt done it yet. Hes had one good rookie year he could just be a top 10 guy or he could flop just like RG3 (but I doubt it he is pretty awesome) 

Matt Ryan is notorious for having up and down years. He is either qb2 or qb15 every other season 

I believe brady and brees' top 5 seasons are behind them as well. They put up good passing numbers but offer zero run game and their passing numbers arnt super elite just good. Brees had been qb 8 or 9 the past several seasons and Brady was qb 14 last year.

Cam, Watson, Rodgers, luck, are top 5 guys if they play 16.. but they've all had season ending injuries lately. 

Top 5 is hard imagine for kyler. I'd say his top 10 odds are pretty good tho.

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2 hours ago, sjm76 said:

That's a very bold prediction.  Unlike Mahomes, most rookie qb's have growing pains and I don't expect Murray to be an exception.  I think that he has an outside chance to finish in the top 15 qb's this year if all breaks right and he doesn't throw a lot of interceptions but I would say no way for the top 5.  Doing well in training camp scrimmages is one thing but Murray is even shorter than Russell Wilson so we'll see how he does in the preseason against teams that aren't his own.  I've seen him likened to Michael Vick who was also short for a qb but Vick was 6'0" and Murray could be 5'8" which is 4 inches shorter.

It’s a spicy take but don’t forget a couple of years back before Watson got hurt he was QB1 as a rookie. The key to rookie QB success is ability to run (Cam, Watson, Jackson, Russ, Josh Allen, RGIII, even Luck had a bunch of rushing TDs)and Murray has that in spades. I don’t care about his height, his athleticism will mitigate it. What I do care about is that they will probably run more plays than any other team in the league, they’ll have to score a lot to stay competitive, Murray will be more comfortable running the offense than maybe any rookie QB in history, and his ability with the ball in his hands. I don’t think he’ll threaten QB1, but that wouldn’t shock me either.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2019 at 3:45 PM, handyandy86 said:

The intriguing thing to me about Murray, which sounds stupid, and I usually hate saying things like this, but the guy is just an athlete and a baller.  He seems to be great at everything he does.  I know anyone in the NFL is a "great athlete", but this guy just seems to keep defying the odds and winning at everything.  High round MLB pick and then gets to play a season as the starting QB and ends up going #1 overall despite having millions on the table from the Oakland A's.  Too small for the QB position but then goes out and dominates.

He's just such an elite athlete all around, that I find it hard to believe he won't succeed.  And being such a good athlete, there are many ways he can beat you.  You can say most rookie QB's don't succeed, but most rookie QB's come into the league with huge holes in their game, and aren't half the athlete that Murray is.  

Part of me is scared of drafting him at his current price, but part of me just wants to do it to be on the hype train and see where it takes me.  You can draft Kyler, plus a more "solid" option like Cousins or Garoppolo, and still only be investing pretty minor draft capital.  

I feel the same way about him. As cliché and non-quantifiable as it may be, he's a "winner". I think it's pretty lazy to point to the statistical improbability of rookie QBs being highly productive as an argument against Murray. It would be more revealing to actually compare him to his peers (i.e fellow 1st overall picks). Some obvious players come to mind - Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RGIII (2nd overall pick behind Luck), Deshaun Watson, and Baker Mayfield (if he had started from day one). Jameis Winston was decent (QB13) and Jared Goff stands out as huge bust during his rookie year.

 

Edited by The Jet
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