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Kyler Murray 2019 Outlook

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Rookie performances of former 1st overall picks:

2018: Baker Mayfield - QB9 (if we extrapolate his 22PPG over the course of 16 games)

2016: Jared Goff - QB36 (huge bust playing in Jeff Fischer's notoriously bad system)

2015: Jameis Winston - QB13

2012: Andrew Luck - QB8

2011: Cam Newton - QB4

He's currently going off the board at QB8. His rushing potential is ultimately what makes him such an interesting choice. If he had no rushing upside, he would need to throw for 4,500 and 30+ TDs to return value. Rushing is such a cheat code for QBs... 100 rushing yards is the same as 250 passing yards. If we put his rushing projections at ~400 yards at the lower end and ~800 yards (what Cam had his rookie year) at the higher end, that's equivalent to an extra 1,000 to 2,000 passing yards. I have no idea where he'll fall in this wide range, but I find it hard to bet against someone like Kyler Murray. Ultimately, If you believe in Kliff Kingsbury and the air raid offense working in the NFL, then his current price should feel like a steal to you. 

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Murray is just going to scramble every down and then when any player attempts a tackle he will duck a bit and it will be a flag every time.  There will be no way for a linebacker to avoid hitting him square in the head.  They will base their entire offense around this strategy.

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26 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Murray is just going to scramble every down and then when any player attempts a tackle he will duck a bit and it will be a flag every time.  There will be no way for a linebacker to avoid hitting him square in the head.  They will base their entire offense around this strategy.

It depends a bit on the LB, the larger ones will just step over him or miss him entirely while he crouches between the legs of the center. Gives a new meaning to "playing under Center".

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Seriously though, we're hearing good news from the training camp, and I'm curious to see how he'll do in 2019.

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8 hours ago, The Jet said:

Rookie performances of former 1st overall picks:

2018: Baker Mayfield - QB9 (if we extrapolate his 22PPG over the course of 16 games)

2016: Jared Goff - QB36 (huge bust playing in Jeff Fischer's notoriously bad system)

2015: Jameis Winston - QB13

2012: Andrew Luck - QB8

2011: Cam Newton - QB4

He's currently going off the board at QB8. His rushing potential is ultimately what makes him such an interesting choice. If he had no rushing upside, he would need to throw for 4,500 and 30+ TDs to return value. Rushing is such a cheat code for QBs... 100 rushing yards is the same as 250 passing yards. If we put his rushing projections at ~400 yards at the lower end and ~800 yards (what Cam had his rookie year) at the higher end, that's equivalent to an extra 1,000 to 2,000 passing yards. I have no idea where he'll fall in this wide range, but I find it hard to bet against someone like Kyler Murray. Ultimately, If you believe in Kliff Kingsbury and the air raid offense working in the NFL, then his current price should feel like a steal to you. 

 

I wonder what kind of pace Deshaun Watson was on before he got injured 2 years ago? I bet he was on Pace to shatter those records.

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9 hours ago, The Jet said:

I feel the same way about him. As cliché and non-quantifiable as it may be, he's a "winner". I think it's pretty lazy to point to the statistical improbability of rookie QBs being highly productive as an argument against Murray. It would be more revealing to actually compare him to his peers (i.e fellow 1st overall picks). Some obvious players come to mind - Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RGIII (2nd overall pick behind Luck), Deshaun Watson, and Baker Mayfield (if he had started from day one). Jameis Winston was decent (QB13) and Jared Goff stands out as huge bust during his rookie year.

 

 

He's just a baller, the same way Baker is. You look around the league and a lot of the best QBs (and best players in general) aren't the ones that have all the measurables or size, they're just plain winners. Kyler reeks of that, to me. 

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This guy is a lock to produce, IMO.  Talent and set up (weak Defense, offensive minded coach, RB that can take a little dump off to the house, etc). 

It's all about if/when he gets hurt.  But I'm willing to ride the train until that happens, if he's available at the right price.  

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Busty Mc'buster.

He is benched by week 4.

This team is a dumpster fire.  They must want next years no.1 pick.       There backup is....Brett Hundley.   0-16 for the team.

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13 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Busty Mc'buster.

He is benched by week 4.

This team is a dumpster fire.  They must want next years no.1 pick.       There backup is....Brett Hundley.   0-16 for the team.

Why would they bench their #1 pick? Nothing is behind him.

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59 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Busty Mc'buster.

He is benched by week 4.

This team is a dumpster fire.  They must want next years no.1 pick.       There backup is....Brett Hundley.   0-16 for the team.

 

What a ludicrous statement.  Look forward to you eating a large plate of crow

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Pat Daughtery said hes one of the players hes been most excited to draft in a long time with him being the biggest dual threat prospect since Vick.  Hes climbing up ADP so you wont be getting him at a discount.  Who's gonna take the plunge?  I had Vick during some of his good years and he wont need to be amazing to put up monster fantasy numbers, but was hoping not to invest draft capital.

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36 minutes ago, WesternSociety said:

Pat Daughtery said hes one of the players hes been most excited to draft in a long time with him being the biggest dual threat prospect since Vick.  Hes climbing up ADP so you wont be getting him at a discount.  Who's gonna take the plunge?  I had Vick during some of his good years and he wont need to be amazing to put up monster fantasy numbers, but was hoping not to invest draft capital.

The difference to me is Murray is 20X the passer Vick ever was. He’s not quite the runner but he’s really close, certainly much closer to Vick as a runner than Vick is to Murray as a passer.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/4/2019 at 4:44 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I wonder what kind of pace Deshaun Watson was on before he got injured 2 years ago? I bet he was on Pace to shatter those records.

He averaged 28.6PPG in 2017 so over the course of 16 games that would be... 457.6 points. Enough to be the QB1 overall in almost any year expect last year where Mahomes put up 494.1 points and probably that year where Peyton Manning went crazy. 

Just for fun, if you took out the 10 point game he had to start the season, he would have averaged 31.5 PPG which would put him at 505 points for the year LOL. I believe this would be the most ever by a QB?

Edited by The Jet
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Still think he's gonna get MDK'd by that offensive line, but he's becoming a FOMO player for me in the last few weeks.   

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Posted (edited)
On 8/3/2019 at 1:36 PM, The Jet said:

Rookie performances of former 1st overall picks:

2012: Andrew Luck - QB8

 

His rushing potential is ultimately what makes him such an interesting choice.

 

Can't forget RGIII. He tore it up in his rookie season...albeit the only season.
But it gives me more thought to go in on Murray.

 

Edited by dropshadows

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This kid gets way to much hate for just being good at football. You don’t make it to the NFL, as the first overall pick, at 5’10” especially, if you aren’t supremely talented, intelligent, and a leader. He is gonna be a special player for years to come. 

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3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

This kid gets way to much hate for just being good at football. You don’t make it to the NFL, as the first overall pick, at 5’10” especially, if you aren’t supremely talented, intelligent, and a leader. He is gonna be a special player for years to come. 

I just worry about him getting hurt behind that line.  He’s not built to take punishment and I know he’s elusive but getting hit a bunch is a worry for me.  That said I’ll have him on more than a few teams as a flyer for sure

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On 8/3/2019 at 9:39 PM, Sivaro said:

Busty Mc'buster.

He is benched by week 4.

This team is a dumpster fire.  They must want next years no.1 pick.       There backup is....Brett Hundley.   0-16 for the team.

 

it won't be worse than last year's disaster, not even close.

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On 8/3/2019 at 8:57 PM, Sternes said:

Murray is just going to scramble every down and then when any player attempts a tackle he will duck a bit and it will be a flag every time.  There will be no way for a linebacker to avoid hitting him square in the head.  They will base their entire offense around this strategy.

Base your entire offense around your quarterback getting hit in the head?

First coach to be fired....

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Man, I want all the Murray shares I can get.  Guy is a generational talent.  Who would of thought that the nfl would become smaller focused...

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2 minutes ago, Mkrak23 said:

Mahomes is hard to top, but Murray just might be better

 

Lol, it's preseason.

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Love the potential upside he brings... his debut wasn’t much he showed supreme confidence and control of that offense. He didn’t try too hard he just took the what defense gave him and we haven’t even seen the flash yet. If there’s a situation to gamble on a rookie QB I believe this is it. 

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6 hours ago, Mkrak23 said:

Mahomes is hard to top, but Murray just might be better

This needs to slow down a bit.  In dynasty I like his prospects, however, I’m not touching him at his redraft price.

 

He reminds me more of Vick then most want to admit.  Great runner but hasn’t shown the ability to work through progressions.  His eyes drop and looks to run far too often.  He also will need to show the ability to hang on to the ball better.  The way he carries the ball will need to change or we will be seeing a lot of fumbles.  

 

He he needs to learn a lot.  Not worth the risk at his price for redraft.

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On 8/4/2019 at 3:44 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I wonder what kind of pace Deshaun Watson was on before he got injured 2 years ago? I bet he was on Pace to shatter those records.

 

He had 1699 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 8 Ints, 269 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 Fum in 7 games.

Over 16 games that would have been:

3883 passing yards

43.5 passing TDs

18 Ints

615 rushing yards

4.5 rushing TDs

2 fumbles

4pts/passTD -2pts/int or fumble scoring league that would make: 250.5 points

Which had made him QB14

 

To be honest, I expected it to be better ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

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