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Kyler Murray 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

He had 1699 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 8 Ints, 269 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 Fum in 7 games.

Over 16 games that would have been:

3883 passing yards

43.5 passing TDs

18 Ints

615 rushing yards

4.5 rushing TDs

2 fumbles

4pts/passTD -2pts/int or fumble scoring league that would make: 250.5 points

Which had made him QB14

 

To be honest, I expected it to be better ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

There is something definitely wrong with your #s. I get 378 pts

Edited by yanksman
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17 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

He had 1699 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 8 Ints, 269 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 Fum in 7 games.

Over 16 games that would have been:

3883 passing yards

43.5 passing TDs

18 Ints

615 rushing yards

4.5 rushing TDs

2 fumbles

4pts/passTD -2pts/int or fumble scoring league that would make: 250.5 points

Which had made him QB14

 

To be honest, I expected it to be better ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The math is way off here.  By my calculations your numbers would put him at 355 points.  Not sure where that lands but surely inside the top 5.

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41 minutes ago, yanksman said:

There is something definitely wrong with your #s. I get 378 pts

 

37 minutes ago, Jvanspro said:

The math is way off here.  By my calculations your numbers would put him at 355 points.  Not sure where that lands but surely inside the top 5.

 

mea maxima culpa!

I put a + 4 instead of a * 4 at the TD numbers :(

 

PassYards PassTDs Int RushYards RushTDs Fum Sum
1699 19 8 269 2 1  
3883,4 43,4 18,3 614,9 4,6 2,3  
155,3 173,7 -36,6 61,5 27,4 -4,6 376,8

 

In my league that even would have been QB1 with Wilson 12 points behind him as a second.

 

Sorry again :(

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59 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

He had 1699 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 8 Ints, 269 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 Fum in 7 games.

Over 16 games that would have been:

3883 passing yards

43.5 passing TDs

18 Ints

615 rushing yards

4.5 rushing TDs

2 fumbles

4pts/passTD -2pts/int or fumble scoring league that would make: 250.5 points

Which had made him QB14

 

To be honest, I expected it to be better ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

I play in 6pt per passing TD.

 

My numbers came out to 439 fantasy points after subtracting fumbles and interceptions.

 

2.5 passing TDs per game x 16 games = 40 TDs. 40 x 6 = 240

3,888 passing yards  divided by 25 yards per point would be 155

38 rushing yards a game x 16 games = 608. 10 yards per fantasy points is 60 points.

4 rushing TDs at 6 points per would be another 24 points.

240+155+60+24=479 points.

 

Subtract 36 points for the 18 interceptions and 4 points for the 2 fumbles.

 

479-40=439 fantasy points.

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If Kyler Murray could produce a fantasy season even 80% of what Deshaun Watson's numbers extrapolate to prior to injury, we're all in for a wild ride. 

Let's just call this 80% level an even 300 fantasy points for the year.  Here's how he would have been ranked for fantasy QB's over the last 10 years:

2018 - 9th
2017 - 2nd
2016 - 6th
2015 - 8th
2014 - 7th
2013 - 3rd
2012 - 8th
2011 - 6th
2010 - 3rd
2009 - 2nd
2008 - 2nd

Not saying he will, but if he could be 80% as good as DW was in 2017, he's a league winner, imo. 

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Posted (edited)

Regardless of what prior rookies have done, Kyler Murray is his own man and his results can completely vary from other rookies. With that said, I went ahead and looked at all top 20 Round 1 QB's from this decade, to see what they did in their rookie season...
(numbers are from Pro Football Reference)
(note that Mahomes and Locker barely played in Year 1, so their Year 2 results are listed)


image.png.e627a3f847eb6ff30c2e38d501b1b607.png

For some of the players (Mayfield, Allen, Watson for instance) would have a higher Fantasy Finish if they played 16 games and stayed at the same pace...which of course is not a given. 

The odds seem to be against Murray providing QB1 value in his rookie season...but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Some of the most successful rookie QB's above did so in large part because of the value they added in the rushing game. 

Edited by Corleone
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I really want to like him and the Cardinals this year.  But I think they are going to struggle.

I haven't followed the Cardinals closely, but have they improved the OL?  Last year they were terrible.

 

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1 minute ago, fruitjacket said:

I really want to like him and the Cardinals this year.  But I think they are going to struggle.

I haven't followed the Cardinals closely, but have they improved the OL?  Last year they were terrible.

 

Not really - the line still projects to be horrid.

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9 minutes ago, fruitjacket said:

I really want to like him and the Cardinals this year.  But I think they are going to struggle.

I haven't followed the Cardinals closely, but have they improved the OL?  Last year they were terrible.

 

Not at all.  If anything they will be worse.  The lost Iupati and Wetzel via FA and signed Sweezy to help address the interior.

They did bring in Gilbert which is an upgrade but losing two Guards will hurt.  However, he can’t ever stay on the field.

Overall, I still put them as the worst line in the league who may be slightly stronger on the edge but much worse on the interior.  Kinda odd for a team that faces Donald twice.

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Everyone can be glad it’s happening in the preseason some optimism here is Deshaun Watson had a rocky pre season as well in his rookie year. Question about his accuracy and decision making. By week 3 he was a star in the league. 

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Posted (edited)

Imagine declaring a player a bust or garbage after 24 plays in the NFL during the pre season. Did that dude have a stroke in the middle of the video?

Edited by TheDoctor
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4 minutes ago, JP_Grizzly said:

Everyone can be glad it’s happening in the preseason some optimism here is Deshaun Watson had a rocky pre season as well in his rookie year. Question about his accuracy and decision making. By week 3 he was a star in the league. 

 

Deshaun Watson is 6'2 ... Kyler Murray is 3 inch shorter than Doug Flutie 

Kyler Murray haven't completed, yet attempted one throw over the middle of the field because he can't see over an NFL line.

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23 minutes ago, ItsMeMario said:

Sums it up

 

"haha dwarf sucks at football"

Image result for fat white guy couch meme

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2 hours ago, ItsMeMario said:

Sums it up

 

“Klingsbury”

”AAAAAAAAAAaaaaaa”

what a goof.

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People talking about Murray doing 80% of Watson? As if Murray has anywhere close to the receiving weapons Watson has?

Come on man!

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Posted (edited)

I say the biggest problem with Murray isn't that he's a rookie, its that his head coach is rookie. During the preseason game Kingsbury didn't know what kind of movement the Qb can make pre-snap. he still playing college rules. he reminds me of people at a new job, when being trained keeps saying "well at my old job, we did it this way". Doesn't look good for any of the Cardinels...DND

Edited by Coprolagnia
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4 hours ago, ItsMeMario said:

Sums it up

 

This post is a prime example of why this forum needs a down vote button. 

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4 hours ago, ItsMeMario said:

Sums it up

 

Even in the end if this guy is right, it’s a god awful take.

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28 minutes ago, Coprolagnia said:

I say the biggest problem with Murray isn't that he's a rookie, its that his head coach is rookie. During the preseason game Kingsbury didn't know what kind of movement the Qb can make pre-snap. he still playing college rules. he reminds me of people at a new job, when being trained keeps saying "well at my old job, we did it this way". Doesn't look good for any of the Cardinels...DND

Shouldn't the position coach know that? That is what assistants are there for.

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10 minutes ago, devaster said:

Shouldn't the position coach know that? That is what assistants are there for.

You shouldn't have to train your boss.

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27 minutes ago, Coprolagnia said:

You shouldn't have to train your boss.

Bosses tend to view activities at a higher level and don't delve into the details that often. They often deal with a much broader view of work compared to the narrower view employees under them might have.

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I was bullish on this guy but from what I've seen so far - wow, this could be ugly.  I know it's preseason and a small sample, and I usually put no stock in preseason, but it's hard to imagine the guy could look that lost...

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I'm certainly not writing him off yet but all the buzz about how great he looked week 1 was quite unfounded. Nothing but outside dinks. He honestly hasn't completed one legit good pass. That's definitely a concern. Next week is gonna be very interesting. 

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