DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Jacobs 2019 Outlook

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Just now, kball09 said:

 

Yeah, I'll make sure to go back in time and not draft him in my YPC league....thanks....

 

You’re the one dying on the hill that says Richardson overperformed his 1.03 draft slot.  How do you think this ends well for you?

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2 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

You’re the one dying on the hill that says Richardson overperformed his 1.03 draft slot.  How do you think this ends well for you?

 

Jesus dude, I'm saying he had a great rookie fantasy year, which he obviously did. But have at it, happy Sunday.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Jesus dude, I'm saying he had a great rookie fantasy year, which he obviously did. But have at it, happy Sunday.

 

I get why you wouldn’t want to extend the conversation.  Okay, just for the sake of furthering the discussion that I concede and we agree that one ‘Bama RB drafted high in the past decade had a good FF year.  That would seem to make that an outlier when compared with all the other seasons accumulated by those guys to date.  

 

So you’re going to pin Jacobs being a success on that track record?  Or could it be that the dominating O line and the surrounding talent could be much more of a factor why ‘Bama RBs look so much better in college than they do in the NFL and that there ought to be a pretty strong red flag attached to him in terms of how he might do this year?

Edited by Bronco Billy
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8 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

You’re the one dying on the hill that says Richardson overperformed his 1.03 draft slot.  How do you think this ends well for you?

 

I dunno about "outperformed" his 1.03 draft slot...I mean, where is it written what the baseline is for that pick? 

I will say that Trent Richardson, from a FANTASY perspective, had a very good rookie year.  His ADP for the following year was in the 1st round.  Nobody cared about his YPC.  Let's not rewrite history here.  Kball09 makes a good point.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I get why you wouldn’t want to extend the conversation.  Okay, just for the sake of furthering the discussion that I concede and we agree that one ‘Bama RB drafted high in the past decade had a good FF year.  That would seem to make that an outlier when compared with all the other seasons accumulated by those guys to date.  

 

So you’re going to pin Jacobs being a success on that track record?  Or could it be that the dominating O line and the surrounding talent could be much more of a factor why ‘Bama RBs look so much better in college than they do in the NFL and that there ought to be a pretty strong red flag attached to him in terms of how he might do this year?

 

There's not really a convo to be had, just pointing out it wasn't a disaster across the board. I hate Bama, pointing out any good from them is not something I'm a fan of doing, I assure you.

And in regards to Jacobs, I could gaf what the other backs from Bama did before him. I don't think that has any impact on his situation. I do like that they drafted a pass catching pack with their first round pick. I think he has a much clearer path to being a 3-down back vs. a bruiser (like our boy Trent!) that needs to learn to pass block and catch the ball. With all the red flags in the RB field this year, I'm comfortable with Jacobs after the 30th pick or so. Notsomuch because I think he's a guaranteed stud, but more because the guys past that range are in worse situations/more competitive backfields.

Edited by kball09
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22 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

There's not really a convo to be had, just pointing out it wasn't a disaster across the board. I hate Bama, pointing out any good from them is not something I'm a fan of doing, I assure you.

And in regards to Jacobs, I could gaf what the other backs from Bama did before him. I don't think that has any impact on his situation. I do like that they drafted a pass catching pack with their first round pick. I think he has a much clearer path to being a 3-down back vs. a bruiser (like our boy Trent!) that needs to learn to pass block and catch the ball. With all the red flags in the RB field this year, I'm comfortable with Jacobs after the 30th pick or so. Notsomuch because I think he's a guaranteed stud, but more because the guys past that range are in worse situations/more competitive backfields.

 

I’m not sure his path is as clear as his proponents are assuming it will be.  I know the word from Gruden and out of camp is that he’ll be the bell cow, but there is one other guy on the roster, who while he hasn’t done a lot the past couple of years does have 2 1400+ yd rushing seasons on his resume; and another guy who has been nothing but productive every time he gets a chance and has averaged 6.0 ypt when he has gotten 10 or more touches in a game.

 

He may not get the volume that some are expecting if all he can do is get what is blocked for him.  He’s not going to have multiple O linemen roaming the second level and beyond on his runs or his coming out of the backfield  on a route completely unaccounted for like he does when you watch his college highlight reel tape

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I’m not sure his path is as clear as his proponents are assuming it will be.  I know the word from Gruden and out of camp is that he’ll be the bell cow, but there is one other guy on the roster, who while he hasn’t done a lot the past couple of years does have 2 1400+ yd rushing seasons on his resume; and another guy who has been nothing but productive every time he gets a chance and has averaged 6.0 ypt when he has gotten 10 or more touches in a game.

 

Richard might pick up some 3rd down work because he's been effective there in the past, but there is no way that Jacobs loses significant touches to Doug Martin and there is no way that Oakland is taking any kind of committee approach. Jacobs is the best RB on that team by far. He will be the workhorse. 

Edited by P@ckersFan

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

He’s not going to have multiple O linemen roaming the second level and beyond on his runs or his coming out of the backfield  on a route completely unaccounted for like he does when you watch his college highlight reel tape

This is a good point.

Personally, I don't think he's going to reach the rookie year heights of guys like Zeke, Kamara, Hunt, CMC, Barkley... but something like Chubb's full season (1200 yds, 10 TDs) is within reach.

Looking at the RB landscape, JJ seems like one of the safer/predictable RB2s out there.  He's going around RB20, so that's about right.  I think he's safer than Freeman, Cook, Fournette, D. Williams - just with a lower ceiling.

There are a lot of guys I like better, but not necessarily going behind him.  I'm hoping to get at least one of Carson, Ingram, Coleman, Jacobs at RB2 or flex.  Ideally, that'd be in the 5th or 6th round, but it depends on how the draft plays out.

3rd round might be a bit high but it depends on your other options.  If you go Gurley, Mixon, Cook, Fournette as your RB1, Jacobs would be a good idea for insurance/stability. He might not blow up, but I predict a steady floor.

I'm not nearly as down on the Raiders offense as most it seems.  Both Lynch and Martin had success at times last year, despite age and all the other problems with the Raiders offense. 

They've invested heavily in their line, including 2 mammoth tackles - one of whom is the highest paid lineman in the league (doesn't mean best, but it's something) and the other is a first rounder touted as raw when coming out but now with a full year of experience. They have another 2nd year tackle with starting experience as a reserve this year, and it's reasonable to expect at least some development from them.  They have a top 10 center.  They also rebuilt the receiving corps with AB and Tyrell, whereas last year they didn't have anyone who presented even a semblance of a threat.

Gruden isn't a 70% pass play caller.  He wants a back who can balance the offense and provide stable pick ups.  He got JJ to be that back.

I wouldn't reach for him, but (to me) Jacobs, despite being a rookie, has fewer question marks than all but a handful of RBs.

Edited by SadFaceHappy

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1 hour ago, SadFaceHappy said:

This is a good point.

Personally, I don't think he's going to reach the rookie year heights of guys like Zeke, Kamara, Hunt, CMC, Barkley... but something like Chubb's full season (1200 yds, 10 TDs) is within reach.

Looking at the RB landscape, JJ seems like one of the safer/predictable RB2s out there.  He's going around RB20, so that's about right.  I think he's safer than Freeman, Cook, Fournette, D. Williams - just with a lower ceiling.

There are a lot of guys I like better, but not necessarily going behind him.  I'm hoping to get at least one of Carson, Ingram, Coleman, Jacobs at RB2 or flex.  Ideally, that'd be in the 5th or 6th round, but it depends on how the draft plays out.

3rd round might be a bit high but it depends on your other options.  If you go Gurley, Mixon, Cook, Fournette as your RB1, Jacobs would be a good idea for insurance/stability. He might not blow up, but I predict a steady floor.

I'm not nearly as down on the Raiders offense as most it seems.  Both Lynch and Martin had success at times last year, despite age and all the other problems with the Raiders offense. 

They've invested heavily in their line, including 2 mammoth tackles - one of whom is the highest paid lineman in the league (doesn't mean best, but it's something) and the other is a first rounder touted as raw when coming out but now with a full year of experience. They have another 2nd year tackle with starting experience as a reserve this year, and it's reasonable to expect at least some development from them.  They have a top 10 center.  They also rebuilt the receiving corps with AB and Tyrell, whereas last year they didn't have anyone who presented even a semblance of a threat.

Gruden isn't a 70% pass play caller.  He wants a back who can balance the offense and provide stable pick ups.  He got JJ to be that back.

I wouldn't reach for him, but (to me) Jacobs, despite being a rookie, has fewer question marks than all but a handful of RBs.

 

CMC had 435 rushing and 651 receiving his rookie year with 7 TDs

This is what you think Jacobs can not reach?

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The bama argument is rudimentary.  Their program is way different than a few years ago.  They pass it and spread it out.  Jacobs skill set translates into the nfl better than the fat plodders.  And since when were Henry and Ingram busts.  

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18 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

And since when were Henry and Ingram busts.  

 

You think taking 3 years to just barely break 1000 yds rushing or 4 years to break 1000 total yds was the ROI their teams expected when they invested the high draft capital they did to draft those guys?

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7 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

CMC had 435 rushing and 651 receiving his rookie year with 7 TDs

This is what you think Jacobs can not reach?

Good catch.

Was unfamiliar with CMC rookie year. Had last year in mind.

Like I said, I don't think 1200 total yards and 10 TDs is at all unlikely. 

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6 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

You think taking 3 years to just barely break 1000 yds rushing or 4 years to break 1000 total yds was the ROI their teams expected when they invested the high draft capital they did to draft those guys?

I would assume so.  Tennessee already had Murray.  Henry wasn’t drafted to be a bell cow right away.  Situations are different.  There’s no Demarco Murray in Oakland.  

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6 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

You think taking 3 years to just barely break 1000 yds rushing or 4 years to break 1000 total yds was the ROI their teams expected when they invested the high draft capital they did to draft those guys?

 

1. Tennessee had Demarco Murray who was only 2 years removed from a league-leading rushing season. Nobody on the Raiders is in the same stratosphere as Murray. 

2. Jacobs is better than Henry. 

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On 8/21/2019 at 12:15 PM, daethfromabove1979 said:

Do we know who really pushed for drafting Jacobs in round one? Was it Gruden or Mayock?

I think it’s pretty common knowledge that this is Gruden’s team in every aspect.  

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Martin cut - so those truthers can put that to rest.

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Top 10 rb this year book it will most definitely get over 300 touches , Antonio brown and big fast 💨 and great blocking TE Waller going to keep defenses honest and open up he game for this young cat ....... gruden has a history of useing his good rbs like horses watch and see

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12 minutes ago, brosephd said:

only reason i was watching hardknocks and he's not even on.

 

Which is great because its like everybody is forgetting him. The hype rookie RB is D.Mont which is setting up Jacobs to be a great value in drafts. 

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got this kid and david montgomery last night in a draft. Both are extremely talented.. Hoping great rookie seasons

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39 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

got this kid and david montgomery last night in a draft. Both are extremely talented.. Hoping great rookie seasons

I got josh Jacobs in the very late 4th round 39th overall in my money league and then at 41st Monty was there but I choose to go with Ingram , I like both rooks but wanted to play it safe a little 

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1 hour ago, Brye said:

I got josh Jacobs in the very late 4th round 39th overall in my money league and then at 41st Monty was there but I choose to go with Ingram , I like both rooks but wanted to play it safe a little 

 

Had same situation. grabbed Jacobs first then the following round Ingram was there and it seemed like the safe bet, but I decided to go for the home run lol let's see how things go.

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