Mr2Saint

David Montgomery 2019 Outlook

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Jordan Howard averaged 5.1 YPC his first year in the league and got over 1,300 yards. Extremely great performance. In his second year he averaged 4.1 YPC and got over 1,100. Stil quite respectable. In his first season under Nagy he couldn't even break 1,000 yards while only having a 3.7 YPC.

Now, you can say Howard is not good at football. However, his first two seasons were very very good. Bad players don't put up those numbers. You can also say that Howard didn't fit his system. However, if you can't make a guy that had back to back 1,000 yard seasons with a 4.6 YPC fit your system there's a bigger issue there. 

My problem isn't Montgomery in this situation. I would suggest people watch the tape for themselves on the type of plays that Nagy ran for Howard. I mentioned before but most of them had absolutely zero chance because it was an absolutely awful running scheme. That's my biggest worry about Montgomery. Nagy demonstrated last season that calling running plays is really not his thing and with all his fancy gadget plays in the most random and ridiculous situations i'll probably want to off myself before the first game is even over. 

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Jordan Howard averaged 5.1 YPC his first year in the league and got over 1,300 yards. Extremely great performance. In his second year he averaged 4.1 YPC and got over 1,100. Stil quite respectable. In his first season under Nagy he couldn't even break 1,000 yards while only having a 3.7 YPC.

Now, you can say Howard is not good at football. However, his first two seasons were very very good. Bad players don't put up those numbers. You can also say that Howard didn't fit his system. However, if you can't make a guy that had back to back 1,000 yard seasons with a 4.6 YPC fit your system there's a bigger issue there. 

My problem isn't Montgomery in this situation. I would suggest people watch the tape for themselves on the type of plays that Nagy ran for Howard. I mentioned before but most of them had absolutely zero chance because it was an absolutely awful running scheme. That's my biggest worry about Montgomery. Nagy demonstrated last season that calling running plays is really not his thing and with all his fancy gadget plays in the most random and ridiculous situations i'll probably want to off myself before the first game is even over. 

 

Playcalling is certainly a factor but the difference between Montgomery and Howard is that Montgomery breaks tackles and Howard goes down like a sack of potatoes.  Howard needs better blocking and playcalling than Montgomery does.  With the same playcalling and touches as Howard got last year, I would expect Montgomery to outperform what Howard did.  And of course there is the pass catching difference.

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Does the light come on for Trubisky this year?  To me, that dwarfs every other issue surrounding Bears players.

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4 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

Does the light come on for Trubisky this year?  To me, that dwarfs every other issue surrounding Bears players.

He’s hasn’t had a good camp from what I hear

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

He’s hasn’t had a good camp from what I hear

 

I've heard it's not what they were hoping for but that he's been better than last preseason. So he's progressing at least it would seem

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50 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Jordan Howard averaged 5.1 YPC his first year in the league and got over 1,300 yards. Extremely great performance. In his second year he averaged 4.1 YPC and got over 1,100. Stil quite respectable. In his first season under Nagy he couldn't even break 1,000 yards while only having a 3.7 YPC.

Now, you can say Howard is not good at football. However, his first two seasons were very very good. Bad players don't put up those numbers. You can also say that Howard didn't fit his system. However, if you can't make a guy that had back to back 1,000 yard seasons with a 4.6 YPC fit your system there's a bigger issue there. 

My problem isn't Montgomery in this situation. I would suggest people watch the tape for themselves on the type of plays that Nagy ran for Howard. I mentioned before but most of them had absolutely zero chance because it was an absolutely awful running scheme. That's my biggest worry about Montgomery. Nagy demonstrated last season that calling running plays is really not his thing and with all his fancy gadget plays in the most random and ridiculous situations i'll probably want to off myself before the first game is even over. 

Exactly my concern and couldn't have said it better myself.  If they couldn't make it work with Howard, why would it work for Montgomery?

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Jordan Howard averaged 5.1 YPC his first year in the league and got over 1,300 yards. Extremely great performance. In his second year he averaged 4.1 YPC and got over 1,100. Stil quite respectable. In his first season under Nagy he couldn't even break 1,000 yards while only having a 3.7 YPC.

Now, you can say Howard is not good at football. However, his first two seasons were very very good. Bad players don't put up those numbers. You can also say that Howard didn't fit his system. However, if you can't make a guy that had back to back 1,000 yard seasons with a 4.6 YPC fit your system there's a bigger issue there. 

My problem isn't Montgomery in this situation. I would suggest people watch the tape for themselves on the type of plays that Nagy ran for Howard. I mentioned before but most of them had absolutely zero chance because it was an absolutely awful running scheme. That's my biggest worry about Montgomery. Nagy demonstrated last season that calling running plays is really not his thing and with all his fancy gadget plays in the most random and ridiculous situations i'll probably want to off myself before the first game is even over. 

kinda reminds me of alf morris. first year was great then steady decline. by year 3 he was pretty much done. 

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50 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Playcalling is certainly a factor but the difference between Montgomery and Howard is that Montgomery breaks tackles and Howard goes down like a sack of potatoes.  Howard needs better blocking and playcalling than Montgomery does.  With the same playcalling and touches as Howard got last year, I would expect Montgomery to outperform what Howard did.  And of course there is the pass catching difference.

Saying Howard "goes down like a sack of potatoes" is extreme recency bias.

I won't act like Howard is some world class elite back. He also struggles making guys miss on the second level due to his lower top speed and lack of elite lateral quickness. However, at the line he was very good his first two seasons. He was good at finding the holes and also good at breaking tackles in those tight situations. There's a decent enough sample size of him making something out of nothing to conclude he doesn't go down like a sack of potatoes. Again, not elite by any measure but he's not some bum.

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I mean the offense went from zone schemes to gap schemes, the latter favoring more lateral agile backs. I think Nagy went back to zone toward the end of the season which had Howard doing "much better" (week 12 -16). 

 

What did Montgomery run at Iowa State? he seems plenty agile enough to run gap fine and gee whiz I think he has the vision for zone schemes as well. 

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27 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Saying Howard "goes down like a sack of potatoes" is extreme recency bias.

I won't act like Howard is some world class elite back. He also struggles making guys miss on the second level due to his lower top speed and lack of elite lateral quickness. However, at the line he was very good his first two seasons. He was good at finding the holes and also good at breaking tackles in those tight situations. There's a decent enough sample size of him making something out of nothing to conclude he doesn't go down like a sack of potatoes. Again, not elite by any measure but he's not some bum.

 

I have to check but I believe I read somewhere that, last year, his elusiveness or tackle breaking metric was really really bad.  "Recent" is a relative term but I'm judging him by the entirety of his play last year, which is 250 carries worth.  I'll try to find that metric and if I can't, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nap Time said:

Does the light come on for Trubisky this year?  To me, that dwarfs every other issue surrounding Bears players.

The Bears were a top 10 offense in terms of points scored in 2018 so even with a marginal improvement from Trubisky you’re still probably looking at one of the higher scoring offenses in 2019.

56 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Exactly my concern and couldn't have said it better myself.  If they couldn't make it work with Howard, why would it work for Montgomery?

Because Montgomery is a much better player? He’s much more elusive, has the ability to change direction laterally without losing too much speed and can actually be a weapon in the passing game. Howard is a 2 down hammer, albeit one of the better ones in the league.

Edited by smeeze

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Saying Howard "goes down like a sack of potatoes" is extreme recency bias.

I won't act like Howard is some world class elite back. He also struggles making guys miss on the second level due to his lower top speed and lack of elite lateral quickness. However, at the line he was very good his first two seasons. He was good at finding the holes and also good at breaking tackles in those tight situations. There's a decent enough sample size of him making something out of nothing to conclude he doesn't go down like a sack of potatoes. Again, not elite by any measure but he's not some bum.

 

This is it.  Article notes that Howard is on a steady decline since his rookie year.  Last year, his Elusiveness rating was 46th out of 47 RBs with at least 100 carries.  His Juke Rate, which is a combination of elusiveness and tackle breaking, was the second-lowest of any back with 150 carries and he was outside the top 100.  He only beat Alfred Blue.  Howard is being replaced by a RB who led all of college football in broken tackles two years in a row.  See link -

https://fantasydata.com/jordan-howard-fantasy-value-in-2019

He may have been better his first 2 years, but something happened to this guy and he's clearly not as good as before.  I mean, if he was hiding an injury or something, I'd evaluate him differently, but he carried the ball 250 times.  That's not a small sample size and IMO is a reflection of what he is currently.

So, I stand by my point that Montgomery will outperform what Howard did last year with identical carries and playcalling.  Montgomery just needs to slide into Howard's role and we should have a solid RB2.  Given the speculation that his receiving chops may eat into Cohen's work and we have upside here too.

Edited by Brownsfan74
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9 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

This is it.  Article notes that Howard is on a steady decline since his rookie year.  Last year, his Elusiveness rating was 46th out of 47 RBs with at least 100 carries.  His Juke Rate, which is a combination of elusiveness and tackle breaking, was the second-lowest of any back with 150 carries and he was outside the top 100.  He only beat Alfred Blue.  Howard is being replaced by a RB who led all of college football in broken tackles two years in a row.  See link -

https://fantasydata.com/jordan-howard-fantasy-value-in-2019

He may have been better his first 2 years, but something happened to this guy and he's clearly not as good as before.  I mean, if he was hiding an injury or something, I'd evaluate him differently, but he carried the ball 250 times.  That's not a small sample size and IMO is a reflection of what he is currently.

So, I stand by my point that Montgomery will outperform what Howard did last year with identical carries and playcalling.  Montgomery just needs to slide into Howard's role and we should have a solid RB2.  Given the speculation that his receiving chops may eat into Cohen's work and we have upside here too.

Howard led the league in his rookie year for yards after contact.

He was 4th in his second year.

So no the drop off was not that significant. In terms of elusiveness, i'll be honest that I don't know too much about it. However, when people throw out these stats i'm always a bit skeptical until I see the list of who leads them. So if you have a link to the full list it would be helpful.

As for last year, I understand there was a HUGE decline. That's my point though. He basically fell off a cliff with his new coach. 

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17 minutes ago, smeeze said:

The Bears were a top 10 offense in terms of points scored in 2018 so even with a marginal improvement from Trubisky you’re still probably looking at one of the higher scoring offenses in 2019.

 

But the offense was #21 in yards.  The defense generated 36 turnovers (#1 in the league) and was #3 in yardage.  The defense gave the offense great field position.  They also scored 6 defensive TDs.

With an unproven QB and 2 veteran RBs ahead of Montgomery, I'm only interested in him as my RB4 or RB5 later in the draft.

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Just now, Gohawks said:

Howard led the league in his rookie year for yards after contact.

He was 4th in his second year.

So no the drop off was not that significant. In terms of elusiveness, i'll be honest that I don't know too much about it. However, when people throw out these stats i'm always a bit skeptical until I see the list of who leads them. So if you have a link to the full list it would be helpful.

As for last year, I understand there was a HUGE decline. That's my point though. He basically fell off a cliff with his new coach. 

 

I'll try to find it for you but I don't subscribe to PFF so I dunno if I can.  Maybe someone else could provide.

I also don't know exactly what goes into the elusiveness or juke rate computation, but I doubt playcalling is a criteria.  I mean, either the RB evades the tackle or gets tackled.  Shouldn't matter who his coach is.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Saying Howard "goes down like a sack of potatoes" is extreme recency bias.

I won't act like Howard is some world class elite back. He also struggles making guys miss on the second level due to his lower top speed and lack of elite lateral quickness. However, at the line he was very good his first two seasons. He was good at finding the holes and also good at breaking tackles in those tight situations. There's a decent enough sample size of him making something out of nothing to conclude he doesn't go down like a sack of potatoes. Again, not elite by any measure but he's not some bum.

 

There is no such thing as recency bias in the NFL. Eliminate recency bias and Mahomes is an unknown, Drew Brees is a top fantasy QB, LeSean McCoy is a first round RB1.

Howard is bad. A few years ago he was passable, but he is not good anymore.

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32 minutes ago, smeeze said:

The Bears were a top 10 offense in terms of points scored in 2018 so even with a marginal improvement from Trubisky you’re still probably looking at one of the higher scoring offenses in 2019.

Because Montgomery is a much better player? He’s much more elusive, has the ability to change direction laterally without losing too much speed and can actually be a weapon in the passing game. Howard is a 2 down hammer, albeit one of the better ones in the league.

I don't know how you can say a 3rd round rookie with 0 NFL snaps is a much better player than a guy who has 2 straight successful NFL seasons under his belt, and only looked bad when he was placed into the exact situation that Montgomery is currently/about to be in.

 

To be clear, I like Montgomery a lot as a player.  But after seeing how Howard was used in the same system, I am hesitant to believe Montgomery will do any more than marginally better in that same role.

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Bears fan and Howard owner last year here.  Howard was a terrible fit for Nagy's scheme.  Under the previous regime he was constantly running with more traditional formations (fullback, double TEs, etc.) and against loaded boxes.  He was a good in those situations because of his vision.  He is very good at being patient and finding the right holes.  When he got passed the first level, there was often nothing in his way.  He had quite a few long runs because of these situations early on.  In Nagy's scheme he didn't see the stacked boxes and his vision didn't matter.  In the situations he would get to the second level, he would get swallowed up.  He was also pretty much nothing in the passing game so teams knew what was coming.

 

I don't think you can compare Montgomery and Howard because they have completely different attributes.  Unlike Howard, Montgomery has excellent short burst and was one of the best at breaking tackles ever in college.  He's also very good in the passing game.  I would not look at Howard's lack of success in the system as a red flag for Montgomery at all.  Just my opinion though.  

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

I don't know how you can say a 3rd round rookie with 0 NFL snaps is a much better player than a guy who has 2 straight successful NFL seasons under his belt, and only looked bad when he was placed into the exact situation that Montgomery is currently/about to be in.

 

To be clear, I like Montgomery a lot as a player.  But after seeing how Howard was used in the same system, I am hesitant to believe Montgomery will do any more than marginally better in that same role.

 

A RB's success is not entirely tied to their system.  They have some control over their own production.  You can have a bad play call, like an inside run that looks like it will get stuffed, and a good RB will have the vision and agility to bounce it outside.  A good RB can make a tackler miss and turn a 3 yard gain into a 15 yarder.  Going by metrics, Howard was personally awful in this offense.  Only got what was blocked.  It's not unreasonable to think that Montgomery will outperform a RB that ranked 46th out of 47 in elusiveness last year.  Possibly by a lot.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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Rb1 in the 3rd round?

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44 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

Rb1 in the 3rd round?

Certainly within the realm of possibility IMO.

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Saying “it didn’t work for Howard, why would it work for Montgomery?” isn’t really a fair statement...

 

Nagy almost completely took Howard out of the equation last season. As a Howard owner last year. I can attest to this.

 

While Howard still received a fair amount of carries, it almost seemed like Nagy had no real motive to pound the ball with Howard. Howard would get 1-3 carries to start the game, and if he didn’t turn those 3 carries into at least 20 yards, Nagy would shift the offense to passing. Nagy seemed to make a point that they weren’t going to pound the rock like they had in years past and after watching multiple games (all after week 5), it felt as though Nagy didn’t really trust Howard with the ball. Howard is one of those players that needs consistency, and many a times, Nagy would give Howard a carry, then go to 6 straight pass attempts regardless of whether they were moving the ball up the field.

 

It seems like the complete opposite with Montgomery. We’ve heard nothing but good things out of camp about Montgomery, and the great thing is is that he can catch the ball out of the backfield.

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17 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

Rb1 in the 3rd round?

 

Yes. 

 

Just like DJ, Hunt, Kamara. 

 

Way too much overthinking on this thread.

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Way too much overthinking on this thread.

If you're not overthinking, you're doing fantasy wrong.

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On 8/13/2019 at 12:53 PM, The Caucasian Sensation said:

Nagy is a disciple of Andy Reid. For reference look at some of the "Walrus" past teams and how they are constructed. In 2017, Nagy was OC for the Chiefs, he had Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, but it was a rookie RB by the name of Kareem Hunt, who would have the biggest offensive impact, and go on to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

In fairness, Hunt only inherited the starting job that season on account of a season-ending injury to Spencer Ware at the zero hour. It wasn’t in KC’s original plans to ride a rookie RB that season. 

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