Mr2Saint

David Montgomery 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, BrianM said:

My best guess is that he'd go where Mike Davis had been going, which FFC says is the 8th round.

 

Monty will go in the 3rd or 4th like Royce did last year.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Nagy was also part of the KC staff that moved up to grab Kareem Hunt in the 3rd, so that would also be a clue as to intent for Montgomery

To be fair he wasn't the starter until Ware got hurt

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30 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

To be fair he wasn't the starter until Ware got hurt

wasnt the starter because his pass protect was bad but he made it a real competition in with ware in camp immediately

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Montgomery.jpg

Jordan Howard wasn’t a fit in Matt Nagy’s offense, but third-rounder David Montgomeryis. The former Iowa State back has a three-down skill set and figures to step right in as the lead early-down option. While Tarik Cohenwill still see the lion’s share of targets out of the backfield, Montgomery has the potential to be an instant RB2.

(PFF draft analysis)

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34 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

While Tarik Cohenwill still see the lion’s share of targets out of the backfield

Should we disregard the other rookie rb they drafted...Singletary's back-up that outproduced him on a per touch basis, the one not invited to the Combine, but put up these #s at his pro day:

 

FAU’s Pro Day was March 26th and Whyte (5'10, 200) absolutely grabbed everyone’s attention with the numbers that he put up.

  • 40 yard dash: 4.36 (99th percentile)
  • Bench Press: 21 reps
  • Broad Jump: 132″ (97th percentile)
  • Vertical Jump: 42″ (98th percentile)

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Posted (edited)

Lets not starting talking like Hunt's success in the NFL happens every year. He was a RB that tested average but he landed in a great offense, Ware got injured, and he outperformed all of his measurables. There are many, many more rookie Rb's that test like Hunt and don't do anything in the NFL. Montgomery's explosive measurables really scare me. Hunt didn't have a Cohen to deal with in KC either. I'm not saying he won't have success, but I think he is riskier then most are saying.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/david-montgomery/

4.63 - 40 YD (38%)

11% Burst

15% SPARQx

*** Hunt has a 25% SPARQx for comparison (more burst, less agility)

Edited by FISH20
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40 minutes ago, FISH20 said:

Lets not starting talking like Hunt's success in the NFL happens every year.

I was curious about that. Kareem was a 3rd round pick (3-86); I checked how many RBs selected 4th round or lower (including undrafted) had a succesful rookie year, and yes, that happens almost every year, even a couple times per year recently:

Player

Year

Age

Draft

Tm

FantPt

PPR

Total yards

Total TD

Tim Hightower

2008

22

5-149

ARI

123.6

157.6

636

10

LeGarrette Blount

2010

24

 

TAM

138.1

143.1

1021

6

Chris Ivory

2010

22

 

NOR

103.3

104.3

733

5

Roy Helu

2011

23

4-105

WAS

119.9

168.9

1019

3

Vick Ballard

2012

22

5-170

IND

114.6

131.6

966

3

Alfred Morris

2012

24

6-173

WAS

241

252

1690

13

Andre Ellington

2013

24

6-187

ARI

126.3

165.3

1023

4

Zac Stacy

2013

22

5-160

STL

157.4

183.4

1114

8

Isaiah Crowell

2014

21

 

CLE

113.4

122.4

694

8

Branden Oliver

2014

23

 

SDG

109.3

145.3

853

4

Andre Williams

2014

22

4-113

NYG

127.1

145.1

851

7

Javorius Allen

2015

24

4-125

BAL

100.7

145.7

867

3

Jeremy Langford

2015

24

4-106

CHI

125.6

147.6

816

7

Thomas Rawls

2015

22

 

SEA

118.6

127.6

906

5

Karlos Williams

2015

22

5-155

BUF

113.3

124.3

613

9

Devontae Booker

2016

24

4-136

DEN

111.7

142.7

877

5

Jordan Howard

2016

22

5-150

CHI

201.1

230.1

1611

7

Robert Kelley

2016

24

 

WAS

120.6

132.6

786

7

Jamaal Williams

2017

22

4-134

GNB

117.8

142.8

818

6

Phillip Lindsay

2018

24

 

DEN

187.8

222.8

1278

10

Obviously this depends a bit on your measure of "success", which is fair; I selected randomly 100 fantasy points as cut-off point.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Should we disregard the other rookie rb they drafted...Singletary's back-up that outproduced him on a per touch basis, the one not invited to the Combine, but put up these #s at his pro day:

 

Yes. Being 'explosive' is generally about genetics. From my quick read on Whyte, both he and Cohen have it. Catching passes out of the backfield is a learned skill, one which coach Nagy values very highly. Of course Cohen has that skill, and according to what I've read, Whyte doesn't.

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12 hours ago, psygolf said:

Idk...Cohen has suitcase-hands, his only downgrade is his small catch radius

I really want to know what this is, btw.
image.png.5a408b8e2b5fc17033bbdbed245d9b6c.png

Does that mean he has hands that are as clumsy as a suitcase, or the size of a suitcase, or as safe as a suitcase, or they are metal with a zipper down the middle?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, andypro77 said:

 

Yes. Being 'explosive' is generally about genetics. From my quick read on Whyte, both he and Cohen have it. Catching passes out of the backfield is a learned skill, one which coach Nagy values very highly. Of course Cohen has that skill, and according to what I've read, Whyte doesn't.

I haven't seen anything that suggests he can't catch, but this was also reported on the FAU pro day

"Whyte also impressed by displaying powerful agility, crisp receiving routes and good hands."

And he did return kicks after all, not the easiest thing to do.

Edited by psygolf

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I was curious about that. Kareem was a 3rd round pick (3-86); I checked how many RBs selected 4th round or lower (including undrafted) had a succesful rookie year, and yes, that happens almost every year, even a couple times per year recently:

Player

Year

Age

Draft

Tm

FantPt

PPR

Total yards

Total TD

Tim Hightower

2008

22

5-149

ARI

123.6

157.6

636

10

LeGarrette Blount

2010

24

 

TAM

138.1

143.1

1021

6

Chris Ivory

2010

22

 

NOR

103.3

104.3

733

5

Roy Helu

2011

23

4-105

WAS

119.9

168.9

1019

3

Vick Ballard

2012

22

5-170

IND

114.6

131.6

966

3

Alfred Morris

2012

24

6-173

WAS

241

252

1690

13

Andre Ellington

2013

24

6-187

ARI

126.3

165.3

1023

4

Zac Stacy

2013

22

5-160

STL

157.4

183.4

1114

8

Isaiah Crowell

2014

21

 

CLE

113.4

122.4

694

8

Branden Oliver

2014

23

 

SDG

109.3

145.3

853

4

Andre Williams

2014

22

4-113

NYG

127.1

145.1

851

7

Javorius Allen

2015

24

4-125

BAL

100.7

145.7

867

3

Jeremy Langford

2015

24

4-106

CHI

125.6

147.6

816

7

Thomas Rawls

2015

22

 

SEA

118.6

127.6

906

5

Karlos Williams

2015

22

5-155

BUF

113.3

124.3

613

9

Devontae Booker

2016

24

4-136

DEN

111.7

142.7

877

5

Jordan Howard

2016

22

5-150

CHI

201.1

230.1

1611

7

Robert Kelley

2016

24

 

WAS

120.6

132.6

786

7

Jamaal Williams

2017

22

4-134

GNB

117.8

142.8

818

6

Phillip Lindsay

2018

24

 

DEN

187.8

222.8

1278

10

Obviously this depends a bit on your measure of "success", which is fair; I selected randomly 100 fantasy points as cut-off point.

 

I would say a good handful of those RB's you listed did not have successful rookie years. Hunt had 240 pts his rookie year and 204 in 11 games his second year (standard scoring). Only 1 RB matched that (Alf), Howard and Lindsay were somewhat close. So I would say that is pretty definitive that Hunt level success does not happen every year. By my count, 4 players in 10 years.

 

If we look at careers, (this forum is a lot of dynasty/keeper talk after all) the list is even worse. I would be interested to see a list that included 3rd round picks and had 160 points as the cutoff (that is still well below what Hunt accomplished).

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7 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

I would say a good handful of those RB's you listed did not have successful rookie years. Hunt had 240 pts his rookie year and 204 in 11 games his second year (standard scoring). Only 1 RB matched that (Alf), Howard and Lindsay were somewhat close. So I would say that is pretty definitive that Hunt level success does not happen every year. By my count, 4 players in 10 years.

 

If we look at careers, (this forum is a lot of dynasty/keeper talk after all) the list is even worse. I would be interested to see a list that included 3rd round picks and had 160 points as the cutoff (that is still well below what Hunt accomplished).

Situation generally trumps talent in the rb position, Hunt couldnt pass protect to save his life yet Reid put him in a situation to succeed despite that deficiency

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Not sure why people are focused on montgomerys speed, he is a rb not a wr running a go route,  His straight line track speed is inconsequential to his ability to see openings, get to and through the holes and break tackles. in other words he is FAST ENOUGH to play in the NFL at 5'10 220 he will not be easy to take down which is what matters and that's the perfect complement to cohen catching passes out of the backfield and doing end arounds. The fact that he can also catch is a bonus because it helps Nagy implement more misdirection and mismatch plays without telegraphing to the defense which means he stays on the field more.

if he can pass protect he should play quite a bit

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Heard one analyst say "if theres 3 yards this kid gets 7, if theres 7 yards he gets 15." I'm sure any coach in the nfl will take that. He may never have the derrick henry 99 yarder but I'm sure with 15-18 touches a game he'll be a fine rb2.

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Don't overthink this, he is their guy.  They traded up in the draft to get him and he will be given the opportunity right off the bat.  He's basically a slightly better version of Jordan Howard that can catch.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Don't overthink this, he is their guy.  They traded up in the draft to get him and he will be given the opportunity right off the bat.  He's basically a slightly better version of Jordan Howard that can catch.

I agree, it's just a question of when he will take the primary role in the backfield. Wk1 or wk 9?

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

Not sure why people are focused on montgomerys speed, he is a rb not a wr running a go route,  His straight line track speed is inconsequential to his ability to see openings, get to and through the holes and break tackles. in other words he is FAST ENOUGH to play in the NFL at 5'10 220 he will not be easy to take down which is what matters and that's the perfect complement to cohen catching passes out of the backfield and doing end arounds. The fact that he can also catch is a bonus because it helps Nagy implement more misdirection and mismatch plays without telegraphing to the defense which means he stays on the field more.

if he can pass protect he should play quite a bit

 

As you know, speed is much more the just the 40 time. For RB, burst is much more important, making it to and through the hole. Montgomery is 11th percentile for burst.

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1 hour ago, FISH20 said:

 

As you know, speed is much more the just the 40 time. For RB, burst is much more important, making it to and through the hole. Montgomery is 11th percentile for burst.

 

Kareem Hunt, 4.62 40 but 68th percentile burst

Another great example, Aaron Jones, 4.56 40 but 88th percentile burst. Jones had multiple carries up the middle last year where he blew by linebackers.

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Don't overthink this, he is their guy.  They traded up in the draft to get him and he will be given the opportunity right off the bat.  He's basically a slightly better version of Jordan Howard that can catch.

 

while montgomery should end up with the majority of the timeshare, there is no reason to believe this will not be a timeshare. cohen is too slippery and too capable to keep on the bench. despite seattle's dropping, signing, using for 2018, and then dropping for 2019, mike davis has shown capable hands and solid running. unless something changes, like we hear the gameplan beyond coachspeak and/or see explosiveness in preseason, this is not a backfield to invest heavily in, certainly not if what varys suggests is true and montgomery goes round 3 / round 4. no thanks: currently in round 3, i'd waaay sooner go damien williams, fournette, derrick henry, aaron jones, and in round 4 i'd go chris carson over montgomery.

 

1 hour ago, FISH20 said:

 

As you know, speed is much more the just the 40 time. For RB, burst is much more important, making it to and through the hole. Montgomery is 11th percentile for burst.

 

as a rule, i never draft a running back with a burst speed lower than my own.

tenor.gif

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

I agree, it's just a question of when he will take the primary role in the backfield. Wk1 or wk 9?

I mean all he really has to do is beat out Mike Davis.  I think we'll know by July.

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11 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

while montgomery should end up with the majority of the timeshare, there is no reason to believe this will not be a timeshare. cohen is too slippery and too capable to keep on the bench.

Obviously I meant Montgomery would take the Jordan Howard role, which was 250 carries last season.  Cohen's role isn't changing, it's locked in.  As long as Montgomery shows he's close to what they thought he was when they traded up for him, I'm not worried about Mike Davis.

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2 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

As you know, speed is much more the just the 40 time. For RB, burst is much more important, making it to and through the hole. Montgomery is 11th percentile for burst.

 

Just to give context to those who may not be informed,  burst and percentiles are taken from the specific combine results and relative to players in their respective combines not the overall population of players in the NFL.  As we know once players take the field all of that combine stuff goes out the window

So yeah I think you are overemphasizing "burst" when success in the rb position relies more on situation/scheme/utilization in other words right fit for the offense

This probably why Nagy traded howard and drafted Montgomery because he is viewed as a better fit for the offense regardless of Howard being faster and having a better "burst" than montgpmery.

Here is a random sample of rb's who I would consider similar to montgomery in terms of speed and I think he profiles closest to Ingram 

Hyde   40yd 4.62  burst 115     35th percentile   
Bell              4.60            113      22nd              
Ingram        4.62            110      14th              
Howard      4.57            119      51st              
Hunt           4.62            122      68th              
Montgomery  4.63        109     11th              

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Obviously I meant Montgomery would take the Jordan Howard role, which was 250 carries last season.  Cohen's role isn't changing, it's locked in.  As long as Montgomery shows he's close to what they thought he was when they traded up for him, I'm not worried about Mike Davis.

Cohen's role could easily change...they had no issue giving him touches as a mid-rd rookie, seems to me they could easily put Whyte to the test with success.

Best group of rbs the Bears have had since '86

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Cohen's role could easily change...they had no issue giving him touches as a mid-rd rookie, seems to me they could easily put Whyte to the test with success.

Best group of rbs the Bears have had since '86

 

 

 I think cohens role is "safe" it's his week to week touches that is unpredictable.  Taylor Gabriel is also a threat to cohens targets because Nagy would misdirect the defense with scheming plays that on one series would use Cohen  as the pass catcher or runner and then another series use Gabriel  in the same formation to catch the defense off guard

Edited by dashoe

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41 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 I think cohens role is "safe" it's his week to week touches that is unpredictable.  Taylor Gabriel is also a threat to cohens targets because Nagy would misdirect the defense with scheming plays that on one series would use Cohen  as the pass catcher or runner and then another series use Gabriel  in the same formation to catch the defense off guard

The addition of Monty, Davis, & Whyte has created at least 2 addition unique roles.  

There’s only so much camera time.

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