Mr2Saint

David Montgomery 2019 Outlook

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For some reason something doesn't smell right here. It is possible Montgomery gets "empty calorie touches" a la carries and minimal targets. Cohen's already made his bread and butter as an elite pass catching back. Mike Davis can do a bit of both but he was signed before the draft, so he should be just a spell / breather back. The problem is:

 

It's a foregone conclusion the bears D regressed. The schedule is seriously hard this year. Its also possible trubisky doesn't take a step forward, and can't make plays to lead the team from behind. It's also possible that in negative game script they put Cohen in there because he is elite at what he does.

 

I don't know- I have a bad feeling. I don't own shares, but feel infinitely more comfortable that Jacobs is way more guaranteed from a volume standpoint.

 

Just a hunch- not hating on the talent. Just not sure the "money" touches are coming as much this year as people expect.

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Is there any cooling off on DMont? I’m making my final decision on whether to reach for him tonight. 

He’s being drafted as the lead back out of the gate. I can see that being the case and I love the upside, but is there sufficient evidence that he is in fact the lead back apart from the Bears trading up to get him and the fantasy community’s perception of who SHOULD be the lead back. Any hard evidence out of Bears camp?

I’ve seen that story before. So just doing my final crossing t’s and dotting i’s.

Edited by gufomel

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8 minutes ago, gufomel said:

Is there any cooling off on DMont? I’m making my final decision on whether to reach for him tonight. 

He’s being drafted as the lead back out of the gate. I can see that being the case and I love the upside, but is there sufficient evidence that he is in fact the lead back apart from the Bears trading up to get him and the fantasy community’s perception of who SHOULD be the lead back. Any hard evidence out of Bears camp?

I’ve seen that story before. So just doing my final crossing t’s and dotting i’s.

If you believe in him, get him, this is why we play, in the end adps don't mean s--- after you draft

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20 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

If you believe in him, get him, this is why we play, in the end adps don't mean s--- after you draft

 

That is so spot on. Great post!

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He's listed as third on the depth chart. I'm a little concerned about drafting him as high as he goes if he isn't gonna be the man right out of the gate.

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Royce Freeman vibes grow stronger by the day.

 

Good luck with that take after week 1.

 

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31 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

If you believe in him, get him, this is why we play, in the end adps don't mean s--- after you draft

 

The thing is I believe in the player, but coaches don’t play players according to how much I believe in them. And that’s what matters for fantasy football.

Let me ask this - what’s the difference between Montgomery and Miles Sanders’ situation besides the fantasy community’s belief in the players’ talents and the fantasy community’s perception of the other players on the backfield/who is going to get the lead role out of the gate.

Montgomery is being drafted as a fantasy RB2 and the lead back out the gate. Miles Sanders is being drafted as an RB3 and one that’s primed to take over the lead role during the season. Those are two different things and significantly impact fantasy value. As I take a step back and look at the situations, I’m losing confidence that DMont’s situation is that much as far ahead as Sanders’. Talent matters, but drafting a player as an RB2 who doesn’t have the lead back role to start the season seems like a mistake.

Are we so sure that Nagy is actually making DMont the lead back from day 1 or is it hope?

Edited by gufomel
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7 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

Are we so sure that Nagy is actually making DMont the lead back from day 1 or is it hope?

There is nothing to indicate otherwise.  They traded up specifically to get him, love him in camp, saw all they needed to see in preseason games, then bubble wrapped him. 

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15 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

The thing is I believe in the player, but coaches don’t play players according to how much I believe in them. And that’s what matters for fantasy football.

Let me ask this - what’s the difference between Montgomery and Miles Sanders’ situation besides the fantasy community’s belief in the players’ talents and the fantasy community’s perception of the other players on the backfield/who is going to get the lead role out of the gate.

Montgomery is being drafted as a fantasy RB2 and the lead back out the gate. Miles Sanders is being drafted as an RB3 and one that’s primed to take over the lead role during the season. Those are two different things and significantly impact fantasy value. As I take a step back and look at the situations, I’m losing confidence that DMont’s situation is that much as far ahead as Sanders’. Talent matters, but drafting a player as an RB2 who doesn’t have the lead back role to start the season seems like a mistake.

Are we so sure that Nagy is actually making DMont the lead back from day 1 or is it hope?

 

Then draft someone else

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I mean... I feel very confident in him... They need someone to be the Lead back and it's not going to be Cohen... Hence the move up to draft Montgomery.

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3 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Then draft someone else

 

I would love to draft him he’s the Bears starter.

That’s what everyone is saying that he is, so I came here for evidence.

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12 minutes ago, Chardo said:

There is nothing to indicate otherwise.  They traded up specifically to get him, love him in camp, saw all they needed to see in preseason games, then bubble wrapped him. 

 

7 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

I mean... I feel very confident in him... They need someone to be the Lead back and it's not going to be Cohen... Hence the move up to draft Montgomery.

 

Thanks. It makes sense. I’m just saying that a lot of time things make sense to us when looking at it for fantasy, but it doesn’t mean that’s what the coaches are thinking.

Is Miles Sanders really in that much different of a situation and/or talent level? The Eagles drafted him higher than the Bears drafted DMont, and the 6th rounder they paid for Howard isn’t exactly a huge blocker in that backfield for Sanders to get the lead role out the gate. Have the Bears told us any more about their intentions for the backfield than the Eagles have?

I’m just not seeing too much difference between the two situations. Maybe DMont is worthy as a pick as an RB2 and so is Sanders? I’m just trying to evaluate the disparity in drafts between these two players. 

Edited by gufomel

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14 minutes ago, Chardo said:

There is nothing to indicate otherwise.  They traded up specifically to get him, love him in camp, saw all they needed to see in preseason games, then bubble wrapped him. 

 

This. Multiple reports from his coaches and teammates praising his vision, ball security, receiving abilities, maturity, study habits etc. etc. His tape is fantastic, and he’s on a likely top-10 offense with a great defense. 

Also Nagy saying they gave Cohen too much volume last year and need to manage his workload/efficiency better this year. 

https://clutchpoints.com/bears-news-matt-nagy-admits-giving-tarik-cohen-a-little-bit-too-much-at-times-last-season/

The difference between him and Sanders’ situations is that Cohen and Davis are not 3-down backs whereas Howard has shown the ability to be that in his career. 

All this is contributing to the hype but yeah we never know if coaches are going to get cute with scheme or a players workload so who knows. 

Edited by Hops

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6 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

 

Thanks. It makes sense. I’m just saying that a lot of time things make sense to us when looking at it for fantasy, but it doesn’t mean that’s what the coaches are thinking.

Is Miles Sanders really in that much different of a situation and/or talent level? The Eagles drafted him higher than the Bears drafted DMont, and the 6th rounder they paid for Howard isn’t exactly a huge blocker in that backfield for Sanders to theoretically get the lead role out the gate. Have the Bears told us any more about their intentions for the backfield than the Eagles have?

I’m just not seeing too much difference between the two situations. Maybe DMont is worthy as a pick as an RB2 and so is Sanders? I’m just trying to evaluate the disparity in drafts between these two players. 


I get it my dude! But it really helps deciphering what 'type' of back each team has in this scenario.

Chicago got rid of their hard-nosed, in-between, and goal-line back in Howard. They have none now. That's why they drafted Montgomery.

You look at Philadelphia... Ajayi was their unquestioned starter at the beginning of last year. He's more talented than Howard but went down. They Trade FOR Howard, draft Sanders (another Ajayi-like player)... and let Ajayi become FA.

Montgomery's situation and talent around him (lack thereof) is baked into his ADP... as is Sanders' situation and talent surrounding him.

Edited by ponza88
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I'd say Davis and Cohen are more talented than Howard and Sproles - but the vibe is that Montgomery will get a larger % of touches than Sanders will...at least to start the season.

 

It will be fun to watch it unfold.  I'd be happy to have both backs, but prefer Sanders at lower (or even if he were at equal) ADP.  I could easily be wrong.

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There are about 5 RBs total nowadays that don’t have some minor RBBC/starter concerns. Shades of gray.  DMont probably a bit higher risk than others though. 

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2 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

I'd say Davis and Cohen are more talented than Howard and Sproles - but the vibe is that Montgomery will get a larger % of touches than Sanders will...at least to start the season.

 

It will be fun to watch it unfold.  I'd be happy to have both backs, but prefer Sanders at lower (or even if he were at equal) ADP.  I could easily be wrong.


Davis, the perennial NFL backup.

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1 minute ago, EWV1 said:

I'd say Davis and Cohen are more talented than Howard and Sproles

 

Jordan Howard - In the NFL 3 years, has 3938 yards from scrimmage and 25 TDs.

Mike Davis - In the NFL 4 years, has 1270 yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs.

 

I won't even bother with Sproles and Cohen.  The reality is, there are much more "proven" running backs in PHI than in CHI which is part of why Montgomery has a higher ADP.

 

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11 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


I get it my dude! But it really helps deciphering what 'type' of back each team has in this scenario.

Chicago got rid of their hard-nosed, in-between, and goal-line back in Howard. They have none now. That's why they drafted Montgomery.

You look at Philadelphia... Ajayi was their unquestioned starter at the beginning of last year. He's more talented than Howard but went down. They Trade FOR Howard, draft Sanders (another Ajayi-like player)... and let Ajayi become FA.

Montgomery's situation and talent around him (lack thereof) is baked into his ADP... as is Sanders' situation and talent surrounding him.

 

That’s fair. Thanks for addressing the two backfields.

I think the hype around DMont is a little higher than it should be (I’ve seen mention of him being taken 22nd overall and being at the top of the Fournette/Kerryon/Aaron Jones/etc tier). That just seems high based largely on speculation that he’ll be the lead back (though seemingly solid foundation for that speculation).

Gotta take risks and DMont seems like a reasonable one to take in the mid-low RB2 range, but higher than that seems like too big of a reach just assuming that he has the lead role locked down.

It just feels like it’s being taken for granted that he’s the lead back out the gate, and I wanted to test that a little bit.

Edited by gufomel
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I'd be surprised if he doesn't at least get a bit of run to open the season. Fantasy aside, the Bears made a pretty big deal about him to their fan base and probably want to show him off. If he bungles the opportunity we could obviously be in trouble, but he's going to get the opportunity. I don't see how he doesn't. Davis is there in case everything doesn't go according to plan.

Edited by LongBalls

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3 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

That’s fair. Thanks for addressing the two backfields.

I think the hype around DMont is a little higher than it should be (I’ve seen mention of him being taken 22nd overall and being at the top of the Fournette/Kerryon/Aaron Jones/etc tier). That just seems high based on speculation that he’ll be the lead back (though seemingly solid foundation for that speculation).

Gotta take risks and DMont seems like a reasonable one to make. It just feels like it’s being taken for granted that he’s the lead back out he gate, and I wanted to test that a little bit.


I definitely wouldn't draft D Montgomery as my RB1... but what I've done routinely is draft someone like Hopkins then go around and possibly get someone like Gurley/Cook + Montgomery.

Edited by ponza88
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29 minutes ago, gufomel said:

 

 

Thanks. It makes sense. I’m just saying that a lot of time things make sense to us when looking at it for fantasy, but it doesn’t mean that’s what the coaches are thinking.

Is Miles Sanders really in that much different of a situation and/or talent level? The Eagles drafted him higher than the Bears drafted DMont, and the 6th rounder they paid for Howard isn’t exactly a huge blocker in that backfield for Sanders to get the lead role out the gate. Have the Bears told us any more about their intentions for the backfield than the Eagles have?

I’m just not seeing too much difference between the two situations. Maybe DMont is worthy as a pick as an RB2 and so is Sanders? I’m just trying to evaluate the disparity in drafts between these two players. 

 

Two totally different situations and running schemes, Howard is more fit for the eagles and there rb need of a power back to complement there receiving counterparts. Also is very good in pass blocking.

Bears traded up to get an all around back who can do it all. Simple as that. Catch block run inside, outside. Fits there scheme a lot better, younger as well

 

Edit, forgot to mention, that even though the DC left to Denver they still have a very good defense which goes hand in hand with a good running game

Edited by CABLE87
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I like Montgomery or Sanders as my number 3 back. I don't trust their situations to feel comfortable starting them at the two spot. I can use them as a flex initially and see how things develop. I like having quality RB depth. 

Rookies in crowded backfields scares me. You just don't know how quickly they will be able to become the man if at all. One fumble or missed block could land them on the bench. 

 

Edited by mongidig

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37 minutes ago, gufomel said:

Thanks. It makes sense. I’m just saying that a lot of time things make sense to us when looking at it for fantasy, but it doesn’t mean that’s what the coaches are thinking.

Is Miles Sanders really in that much different of a situation and/or talent level? The Eagles drafted him higher than the Bears drafted DMont, and the 6th rounder they paid for Howard isn’t exactly a huge blocker in that backfield for Sanders to get the lead role out the gate. Have the Bears told us any more about their intentions for the backfield than the Eagles have?

I’m just not seeing too much difference between the two situations. Maybe DMont is worthy as a pick as an RB2 and so is Sanders? I’m just trying to evaluate the disparity in drafts between these two players. 

I targeted neither and got both, so I'll weigh in on this.

Montgomery will be getting the majority of touches from Week 1. I don't think there's been anything concrete about what the Montgomery/Davis situation is, but I expect them to both get a shot, and while I think Davis can be productive (probably not in Chicago's system after seeing how Nagy (mis)used Howard last year though), Montgomery is an electric back and will separate very quickly. His ADP is appropriate considering the talent level as well as the risk of Nagy letting a billion other players touch the ball, coupled with his use of Howard (who's less of a threat in the passing game than Montgomery) last season.

The Eagles have never had a back that the staff likes as much as Sanders, and they've said as much. But Howard will be the starter from Week 1. Again, that can change quickly, but he's entrenched for now, and the Eagles have shown much more of an interest in running a committee than Chicago. For how trash Howard was for fantasy last year and how many guys they used, he still got a plenty of snaps and carries. The same cannot be said for the Eagles backs, even though they had plenty of injuries.

With the mean expectation for both, you're looking at more volume from Montgomery. That's why Montgomery is going earlier, and the expectation is that Sanders is probably more of a borderline flex guy whose role will grow as the season goes on. That's why there's a disparity. I don't think there's very much of a disparity, nor should there be.

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