Mr2Saint

David Montgomery 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Cohen's role could easily change...they had no issue giving him touches as a mid-rd rookie, seems to me they could easily put Whyte to the test with success.

Best group of rbs the Bears have had since '86

 

Except Cohen wasn't a rookie last season.  He's had the same role for 2 years.  Under 100 carries 50+ receptions.

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38 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Except Cohen wasn't a rookie last season.  He's had the same role for 2 years.  Under 100 carries 50+ receptions.

His carries went up 14% and his targets went up 28%...I wouldn’t call that the same role.

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44 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Except Cohen wasn't a rookie last season.  He's had the same role for 2 years.  Under 100 carries 50+ receptions.

Now what really hasn’t changed over the past 2 years is the total targets the bear rb corps have received as a whole.

Expect the future share going to Monty-Davis-Whyte to take a bigger bite out of Cohen’s take than the Howard-Cunningham-Mizzell trio did last year.

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The only Bears I want in fantasy in 2019 is the Bears D.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

His carries went up 14% and his targets went up 28%...I wouldn’t call that the same role.

I'm not sure you know what "role" means.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The only Bears I want in fantasy in 2019 is the Bears D.

Probably the only one I won't own based on ADP

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I'm not sure you know what "role" means.

Usage?

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28 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Probably the only one I won't own based on ADP

You will own every other Bear in fantasy?  Even Mitchell?  Interesting...

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The only Bears I want in fantasy in 2019 is the Bears D.

 

You must have missed when C. Patterson signed with the team.

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22 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You will own every other Bear in fantasy?  Even Mitchell?  Interesting...

It would be more logical than taking a D/ST in the 8th round...

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Posted (edited)

270 vacated touches from Jordan Howard last year. Have to feel great about the possibility of 225-250 total touches as a rookie for Montgomery. If the Bears D can be as good as it was last year it can definitely result in favorable game scripts for the lead RB.

 

Nagy loves this dude.

Edited by Mr2Saint

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20 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

270 vacated touches from Jordan Howard last year. Have to feel great about the possibility of 225-250 total touches as a rookie for Montgomery. If the Bears D can be as good as it was last year it can definitely result in favorable game scripts for the lead RB.

 

Nagy loves this dude.

Yeah but the Bears D didn't exactly turn into favorable game scripts for Howard last year with Nagy, why would that change?

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3 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Yeah but the Bears D didn't exactly turn into favorable game scripts for Howard last year with Nagy, why would that change?

They were favorable game scripts for Howard, like leads in the 4th quarter, but Nagy kept dialing up pass after pass.  That cost them wins against Miami and Green Bay.  I don't really think it will change all that much.

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47 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

They were favorable game scripts for Howard, like leads in the 4th quarter, but Nagy kept dialing up pass after pass.  That cost them wins against Miami and Green Bay.  I don't really think it will change all that much.

Fuller drop for easy pick 6 in GB, and Cohen fumble late in Miami cost them wins in those games.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

They were favorable game scripts for Howard, like leads in the 4th quarter, but Nagy kept dialing up pass after pass.  That cost them wins against Miami and Green Bay.  I don't really think it will change all that much.

They were 6th in the league in rushing attempts...

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Posted (edited)

D Montgomery seems like a solid RB but there is NO WAY I’m trusting him as anything more than a slightly better than and equally unpredictable/frustrating J Howard/high end RB3 

1. First and foremost is Nagy - he is obviously a very creative coach who loves misdirection to the point of going overboard (passing 4 times in a row on the 1 yard line for first and goal or having defensive players come in for a crucial goal line attempt for example.) I think he is way too impressed with himself to implement anything as vanilla as a 3 down back.

2. Trubinski - He’s not what Alex Smith was when K Hunt blew up. That’s not going to help the run game. It also doesn’t help that Nagy doesn’t seem to care how mediocre Trubinski is, Nagy still had him throw tons especially at the goal line (I don’t have exact stats but it seemed excessive)

3. RBBC is the new norm. Especially after what happened to Gurley, I don’t see Mr. Misdirection leaning on one RB.

4. The trade up - Not impressed with this either because the Bears HAD TO get an RB who could contribute right away in this draft. My understanding is that this was not the most impressive RB class so this could have easily have been a case of necessity rather than infatuation. 

 

I’ll bet this kid does better than Howard but that means he will probably have 6 or 7 useful games leaving 9-10 where he just kills you.

Edited by FreakFries
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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

D Montgomery seems like a solid RB but there is NO WAY I’m trusting him as anything more than a slightly better than and equally unpredictable/frustrating J Howard/high end RB3 

1. First and foremost is Nagy - he is obviously a very creative coach who loves misdirection to the point of going overboard (passing 4 times in a row on the 1 yard line for first and goal or having defensive players come in for a crucial goal line attempt for example.) I think he is way too impressed with himself to implement anything as vanilla as a 3 down back.

2. Trubinski - He’s not what Alex Smith was when K Hunt blew up. That’s not going to help the run game. It also doesn’t help that Nagy doesn’t seem to care how mediocre Trubinski is, Nagy still had him throw tons especially at the goal line (I don’t have exact stats but it seemed excessive)

3. RBBC is the new norm. Especially after what happened to Gurley, I don’t see Mr. Misdirection leaning on one RB.

4. The trade up - Not impressed with this either because the Bears HAD TO get an RB who could contribute right away in this draft. My understanding is that this was not the most impressive RB class so this could have easily have been a case of necessity rather than infatuation. 

 

I’ll bet this kid does better than Howard but that means he will probably have 6 or 7 useful games leaving 9-10 where he just kills you.

I’ll take him if you think he’ll kill my team week 16 - lol

$

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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

They were 6th in the league in rushing attempts...

The team was #8 in rushing attempts but the QB was #6 in rushing attempts . . . 😂

Also the defense gave them advantageous field position which benefited the rushing game given the QB was #18  and the team #26 in pass attempts.

So the question to ask is will Trubisky air out the ball more this season or will the team stay run heavy?

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12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The team was #8 in rushing attempts but the QB was #6 in rushing attempts . . . 😂

Also the defense gave them advantageous field position which benefited the rushing game given the QB was #18  and the team #26 in pass attempts.

So the question to ask is will Trubisky air out the ball more this season or will the team stay run heavy?

 

 

Thats the problem, you don’t know what Nagy is going to do week to week. There were plenty of games last year that set up as a Howard game or a Cohen game or a Burton game and Nagy went in a totally different direction. Nagy is clearly a great NFL coach but the guy is the undisputed reigning satan of fantasy coaches.

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I do not think any League Champ in 2019 will have had any angst on draft day about where to draft a Bear this year.  

They do not have any ff targets worthy of a “reach”...if they fall to you, fine.

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20 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I do not think any League Champ in 2019 will have had any angst on draft day about where to draft a Bear this year.  

They do not have any ff targets worthy of a “reach”...if they fall to you, fine.

Trubisky will be a good streamer if he keeps running the ball

 

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4 hours ago, FreakFries said:

D Montgomery seems like a solid RB but there is NO WAY I’m trusting him as anything more than a slightly better than and equally unpredictable/frustrating J Howard/high end RB3 

1. First and foremost is Nagy - he is obviously a very creative coach who loves misdirection to the point of going overboard (passing 4 times in a row on the 1 yard line for first and goal or having defensive players come in for a crucial goal line attempt for example.) I think he is way too impressed with himself to implement anything as vanilla as a 3 down back.

2. Trubinski - He’s not what Alex Smith was when K Hunt blew up. That’s not going to help the run game. It also doesn’t help that Nagy doesn’t seem to care how mediocre Trubinski is, Nagy still had him throw tons especially at the goal line (I don’t have exact stats but it seemed excessive)

3. RBBC is the new norm. Especially after what happened to Gurley, I don’t see Mr. Misdirection leaning on one RB.

4. The trade up - Not impressed with this either because the Bears HAD TO get an RB who could contribute right away in this draft. My understanding is that this was not the most impressive RB class so this could have easily have been a case of necessity rather than infatuation. 

 

I’ll bet this kid does better than Howard but that means he will probably have 6 or 7 useful games leaving 9-10 where he just kills you.

 

Trubisky will be better than Smith IMO. Agreed with most of the rest.

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7 hours ago, FreakFries said:

I think he is way too impressed with himself to implement anything as vanilla as a 3 down back.

He gave 250 carries to a guy he thought was valued at a FUTURE 6th round pick.

7 hours ago, FreakFries said:

3. RBBC is the new norm. Especially after what happened to Gurley, I don’t see Mr. Misdirection leaning on one RB.

Gurley's injury wasn't caused from overuse, it's from his ACL tear in college.

7 hours ago, FreakFries said:

4. The trade up - Not impressed with this either because the Bears HAD TO get an RB who could contribute right away in this draft. My understanding is that this was not the most impressive RB class so this could have easily have been a case of necessity rather than infatuation. 

Nobody "needs" a RB that badly.  They literally told Montgomery pre-draft that they were gonna draft him and kept their promise.  They wanted him whether he's worth it or not.

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Just bought in dynasty as the 1.06. Didn't think he'd make it that far.

 

I really like the landing spot for him and think Davis is there as insurance more than anything. This is a team that was expected to go to the divisional round in the playoffs. It's nice to have that backup in case Montgomery/cohen go down.

 

(assuming Montgomery doesn't flub in training camp)

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I keep saying to myself "what if they traded up just a little sooner and got darrel henderson?" But the bears gm has been pretty good at finding talent cheap, including cohen and howard, part of me thinks this will work out Montgomery will be a top 15 guy

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