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chris2333

Help!!! 12 Team PPR offer to trade trade position

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Hey everyone currently I am 12th pick in the draft and 6th pick has offered to switch with me (I know it’s way before draft day but he offered no extra picks etc just straight up switch) but I have to do it in now, we determined draft order by the Kentucky Derby results that’s the willingness to switch now and offer is off the table by end of this week. 

 

Any thoughts on what you would do?

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I would make the move and get that 6th overall pick. 

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1 hour ago, chris2333 said:

Hey everyone currently I am 12th pick in the draft and 6th pick has offered to switch with me (I know it’s way before draft day but he offered no extra picks etc just straight up switch) but I have to do it in now, we determined draft order by the Kentucky Derby results that’s the willingness to switch now and offer is off the table by end of this week. 

 

Any thoughts on what you would do?

I don't get it. Somebody offers you a clear benefit without disadvantage? 

If so, just do it, but what am I missing?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I don't get it. Somebody offers you a clear benefit without disadvantage? 

If so, just do it, but what am I missing?

I guess what I’m asking is: is it better to draft 6th or draft 12th. Just to make sure I’m talking about the whole draft not just the first pick  

12’s benefits you get that back to back pick but the 23 pick wait can be killer vs 6 you are always picking every 12

 

Edited by chris2333

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, chris2333 said:

I guess what I’m asking is: is it better to draft 6th or draft 12th. Just to make sure I’m talking about the whole draft not just the first pick  

12’s benefits you get that back to back pick but the 23 pick wait can be killer vs 6 you are always picking every 12

 

Generally, the higher the pick, the better, because the difference between pick 1 and 2 is larger (theoretically) than between pick 23 and 24. Essentially the values of the picks are a logarithmical scale, if that means something.

The only exception is if you feel that the top-N of the draft have more or less equal value; then you should take pick N. Say in this year you consider Zeke/Barkley/Kamara/CMC more or less all good and interchangeable, then position 4 would be ideal.

In any case, position 6 is clearly better than position 12, so take it before he gets to his senses.

Edited by Boudewijn

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I go the other way, I say stay at #12.

Let's say there are about 15 players who are '1st rounders'. That is, a guy who you can see being the best player on your team. If you stay at #12, you get two of them. If you move to #6, you only get one. Sure, you definitely get a good player at pick #19, but you don't get a 1st round type guy.

Right now the FF Calc ADP has Thomas, Julio, OBJ at 12 - 14, and you'd get two of them. (or even JuJu or Mixon). 17-20 is Kelce, Cook, AB, and Chubb. Yea, good players, but a slight notch below.

Now, you could end up winning in this scenario if Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, CMC, or falls to 6, but that probably won't happen. I might make the switch for a top 4 pick, but not top 6.

By the way, I ran a 12 team redraft for 10 years (it was draft and hold, no trades), and I studied draft position vs. points. I came to the conclusion that it doesn't matter where you pick, there's no clear advantage overall. I think the highest ranked number was pick 8, but it was only slightly better than several others.

The point, it probably doesn't matter all that much, and a lot of it is personal preference. I'd take players 12 and 13 over players 6 and 19, but it's probably a wash, so do what makes you feel good.

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I would rather be at 12 than 6. I mostly just like the double picks. Doubt there is a ton of difference results wise between the 2 spots. 

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I'd take the earliest pick I could get. Double picks are fun. Waiting 23 picks in between stinks. In the end, I'd rather pick sooner in the first round. 

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I’m gonna stay with 12. The way my league usually goes they tend to to on runs and love to go RB heavy the first round. So I’ll end up going RB RB knowing primo WRs will be there in the third round or at least someone like diggs and I’ll be set at RB 1 and 2. 

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2 hours ago, Bandito said:

I'd take the earliest pick I could get. Double picks are fun. Waiting 23 picks in between stinks. In the end, I'd rather pick sooner in the first round. 

 

I love it at a live draft. Time to pee/grab beer/ food.

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9 hours ago, andypro77 said:

By the way, I ran a 12 team redraft for 10 years (it was draft and hold, no trades), and I studied draft position vs. points. I came to the conclusion that it doesn't matter where you pick, there's no clear advantage overall. I think the highest ranked number was pick 8, but it was only slightly better than several others.

Did the last place automatically get first pick in next year's draft, or did you distribute random orders? If better teams get low positions, it would make sense that the lower picks get better drafts year over year. If it's random, I would expect the high picks to have better drafts, so that's interesting.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Did the last place automatically get first pick in next year's draft, or did you distribute random orders? If better teams get low positions, it would make sense that the lower picks get better drafts year over year. If it's random, I would expect the high picks to have better drafts, so that's interesting.

Nope, total redraft every season, with a random draft order that has nothing to do with the previous year's finish.

I currently run a 56 team league with four 14 team separate leagues. Once again, total redraft with no trades.

Last season, the 4 league champs picked 9th, 7th, 11th, and 1st. In 2017 the league champs picked 10th, 3rd, and 4th. In 2016 it was 9th, 9th, and 6th. This league has only been in existence since 2016, and only went to 4 leagues last season.

But my old one was 10 years and 4 different conferences a year, and I found zero correlation between draft position and finish. It just doesn't matter.

I know it's counter-intuitive, but it's true. I was in two different drafts last season, and I was randomly assigned the #2 pick in one of them and the #13 in the other. With the #2 pick I took Bell, and with the #13 pick in the other I took Hopkins.

Think about it, Barkley and CMC were the top two scoring RBs last season, and neither was going at the top of the 1st round. Guys like Hopkins and Julio weren't either. Kelce, Ertz, James White, Connor, Mixon, Woods, Diggs could have mostly been picked from any position, and of course any team could have drafted Mahomes no matter what 1st round pick they were assigned.

And yes, if Barkley and Zeke have absolutely historical seasons from the very top of the draft this year, it might skew the results for this season, but over time it just doesn't matter. I used to live and die by what draft position I got, now I don't really care, because the data has convinced me that it doesn't matter.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, andypro77 said:

Nope, total redraft every season, with a random draft order that has nothing to do with the previous year's finish.

I currently run a 56 team league with four 14 team separate leagues. Once again, total redraft with no trades.

Last season, the 4 league champs picked 9th, 7th, 11th, and 1st. In 2017 the league champs picked 10th, 3rd, and 4th. In 2016 it was 9th, 9th, and 6th. This league has only been in existence since 2016, and only went to 4 leagues last season.

But my old one was 10 years and 4 different conferences a year, and I found zero correlation between draft position and finish. It just doesn't matter.

I know it's counter-intuitive, but it's true. I was in two different drafts last season, and I was randomly assigned the #2 pick in one of them and the #13 in the other. With the #2 pick I took Bell, and with the #13 pick in the other I took Hopkins.

Think about it, Barkley and CMC were the top two scoring RBs last season, and neither was going at the top of the 1st round. 

 

This isnt true. I took Saquan 2nd in one league. Pretty sure he was top 6 in every league i was in but would have to look.

Edited by dmb3684

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42 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

This isnt true. I took Saquan 2nd in one league. Pretty sure he was top 6 in every league i was in but would have to look.

 His FF Calc ADP last year was 1.07, in late August to early September drafts. In my four-draft league, he went 6th, 7th, 7th, and 8th. And we're located in Central Pa, so there actually should be a slight bias in his favor.

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19 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

 His FF Calc ADP last year was 1.07, in late August to early September drafts. In my four-draft league, he went 6th, 7th, 7th, and 8th. And we're located in Central Pa, so there actually should be a slight bias in his favor.

 

I have a 1.02 and 1.04. Other 2 were auctions. Not super important either way.

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