Boudewijn

Mark Andrews 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

As per the OJ Howard thread (thanks @Stonej14 for the tip):

Quote

Andrews seems very interesting, especially if you consider he had a 35/550 season as a rookie, while only starting 3 games, AND 2nd year TEs show on average a 50% improvement. For a guy whose ADP is currently in the 200s. Now THAT is interesting.

I should probably keep quiet, but I think this kid deserves his own thread.

 

Some highlights:

OK, these highlights don't say much, especially when you hardly see any of the routes he runs, or the blocks he sets, etc, or any of his drops or misses.
But the routes I see I like, he has speed, he had a 68% catch rate (well above the completion rates of Jackson/Flacco), and 34/552 with 3 TD is very respectable.

This is a kid with future; the main question is I guess, how much can he improve in 2019?

Edited by Boudewijn
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Nice. Ok I’m intrigued. 

3rd round pick last year by the Ravens out of Oklahoma

Baltimore All-Time Rookie Tight End receptions, receiving yards and touchdown record holder

Oklahoma Sooners All-Time Tight End receiving yards record holder

PFF NFL all-Rookie team last year

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Would a run-heavy system like the Ravens’ traditionally be one that favors pass-catching TEs or no?

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I would be all over Andrews this season as a 2nd year breakout TE if Flacco was still running the show, but Lamar Jackson at QB scares me.  Same goes for all the Baltimore pass catchers - Brown, Snead, etc.  Big fan of the Baltimore running game this year, but most likely staying away from the Baltimore passing game. 

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I would be all over Andrews this season as a 2nd year breakout TE if Flacco was still running the show, but Lamar Jackson at QB scares me.  Same goes for all the Baltimore pass catchers - Brown, Snead, etc.  Big fan of the Baltimore running game this year, but most likely staying away from the Baltimore passing game. 

Makes sense. But note that Andrews had solid games from Week 10 on when Lamar was starting. 

Edited by gufomel

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27 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I would be all over Andrews this season as a 2nd year breakout TE if Flacco was still running the show, but Lamar Jackson at QB scares me.  Same goes for all the Baltimore pass catchers - Brown, Snead, etc.  Big fan of the Baltimore running game this year, but most likely staying away from the Baltimore passing game. 

 

His stats are a about the same. 

Flacco (9 games): 31 targets 21 catches 254 yards 2tds

Lamar (7 games) 29 targets 14 catches 298 yards 1td.

Lamarr was thrown in very abruptly. Didnt have any time to sync up and they still did fine. Worth a last round pick too me. Heck get him off the waivers after week 1. Even if he explodes I'm sure most ppl would think it's a fluke. 

 

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I think what is interesting about Andrews is how he played with Baker Mayfield and now Lamar Jackson. Although Baker does not run as much as Lamar Jackson Baker does keep plays alive longer than usual and Andres always seemed to do a good job making himself available to the QB after the play breaks down. I saw the same thing in the highlights where he is playing with Lamar Jackson. He had a lot of highlights where Jackson was rolling right and Andrews did a good job flowing with the play and always being ready for a last minute throw to him. The other couple things that I personally look for in a TE who is going to break out in fantasy is if the QB, OC, HC, trust the TE to throw it to him more than 20 yards down the field, those lead to big plays and improving the stat line and also the TEs ability to run after the catch. In the highlights above Andrews does a good job shedding tacklers, he uses a nice jump step to use defenders speed against them and pushes them out of the way. He catches the ball with his hands and tries hard for extra yardage.

I didn't know much about him before @Boudewijn started talking about him so thank you for that. After watching his highlights I'd say he looks like the perfect TE to play with Lamar Jackson. Playing with Baker Mayfield in college and learning how to make yourself available to the QB seems like it has served him well in an effort to adjust to a similar QB like Jackson who is know for extending plays and looking for guys to come open.

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I dont want any players that Lamar is throwing to. Good luck sirs.

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38 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

I dont want any players that Lamar is throwing to. Good luck sirs.

 

I cant blame anyone who has this opinion. Buy if your gonna take a risk TEs are a pretty safe spot to throw a dart at the wall 

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27 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I cant blame anyone who has this opinion. Buy if your gonna take a risk TEs are a pretty safe spot to throw a dart at the wall 

 

Yeah no risk. Im on Reed and ASJ late

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This isn’t their first round TE right? Man taking TEs in the first is such a s--- show. Can’t believe lions took another TE at 8. 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I cant blame anyone who has this opinion. Buy if your gonna take a risk TEs are a pretty safe spot to throw a dart at the wall 

Yeah but might as well take a risk in a higher passing offense.

 

Also no way ASJ goes late. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, gufomel said:

Would a run-heavy system like the Ravens’ traditionally be one that favors pass-catching TEs or no?

I'm not sure that's entirely the right question, but as I am alwys curious, AND in love with Excel, I decided to throw some data in a sheet. 
I compared for 2018:
- percentage of yards from rushing; highest is Seattle with 45%, lowest is PIT with 22%.
- Total TE yards for a team. Highest is Philly with 1564 (mostly Ertz and Goedert), lowest is Jacksonville (281 yd).

I plotted those against each other to see if there is a clear correlation:

image.png.97807475bd5bbe1a7cab42aed691298b.png

Yeah, not really. Mostly this is an amorphous mess, with a slight correlation that run-heavy teams have fewer TE yards. Three groups stick out somewhat:
- to the left we have Pitsburgh, Tampa and Atlanta. All three are pass-heavy, all three used multiple TEs, none of them had a top TE: Hooper, McDonald and Howard each had around 600 yards.
- on top we have the star TEs: Kittle (SFO), Kelce (KAN) and Ertz PHI). Of the three, SFO ran the most, but still middle of the pack.
- to the right, we have teams that get more than 40% of their yards from rushing: BAL/TEN/BUF/SEA. None of these teams had a fantasy relevant TE, with the borderline exception of... our friend Mark Andrews (TE16).

I repeated the process for a random different but recent year; in 2015 I found a similar pattern, with one exception where Olsen had 1104 yards on the Panthers which had 39% of yards from the run.

So I think that in general his run-heavy team is a risk for his production, but not necessarily blocking.
 

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

So I think that in general his run-heavy team is a risk for his production, but not necessarily blocking.

A word of caution; I collected a bit more data, and tried some other correlations - generally the more I try, the less certain I am.

I may come back to it, because it is still interesting, but take the statement above with a bag of salt.

 

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11 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Yeah but might as well take a risk in a higher passing offense.

 

Also no way ASJ goes late. 

 

Hes in like the 13th round now. How high do you think he is going? Im good anytime after 10.

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On 5/8/2019 at 9:15 PM, Panthers8912 said:

This isn’t their first round TE right? Man taking TEs in the first is such a s--- show. Can’t believe lions took another TE at 8. 

I thought it was a good pick, though passing on Oliver was debatable. They need a TE bad though esp with so-so WR options. Anyway - 

Andrews is certainly worth a late round flyer esp for those whose leagues require a backup TE. Greatness? Nah. Respectable showing? Very possible.

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What makes him better than Hayden Hurst?

 

It seems like there will be 2 TEs competing for targets in a low volume passing attack. Easy pass for me.

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Even a low volume passing attack will generate some numbers and they have little to speak of with receivers. Again not like anyone is saying target him with anything other than a late round pick

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

What makes him better than Hayden Hurst?

 

It seems like there will be 2 TEs competing for targets in a low volume passing attack. Easy pass for me.

 

Well hes younger by about 3 years but both in the same draft class which is nice in dynasty. He won the award for best tightend in college. He was a converted WR so he has natural pass catching and yac talent. And there were several reports in minicamps on how in sync Andrew's and Jackson were. Some went as far to predict him leading the team in receptions this year... but even with all that hes still just a late round dart throw so buyer beware.

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I'm a fan at the current ADP Round 12ish in FFPC best balls. Agree with everyone who questions whether anyone is worth getting in this pass offense, but in FFPC Best Ball, he's a nice fit late since he can score from long it seems (4.67 forty). 

Hard to invest in classic tho, especially standard PPR with only six or seven bench spots. Pretty best ball friendly though. 

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If I don't get one of Howard, Henry or Engram, I find myself waiting til the very end of the draft. Is there REALLY that much difference between Vance McDonald going currently at 7.12 and Andrews going at 14.05? I really like Goedert as a real life football player but I prefer MAndrews over him for sure. 

Hayden Hurst came into the league with a stress fracture in his foot that required surgery and is already dealing with hamstring issues in camp. Not a good look for the 2nd year who will be 26 years old when Week 1 rolls around.

Not getting ahead of myself with Andrews but you can take him with your last pick of the draft in most leagues and I think he has as much upside as anyone going outside the top 6-7 TEs. 

 

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Here. We. Go.

#Blurb-hype-szn

The Athletic's Jeff Zrebiec reports second-year TE Mark Andrews has been the Ravens' "most dangerous and productive offensive player" at training camp.

Zrebiec notes Andrews looked lost at this time last year as a rookie, but things have obviously changed as he heads into year two. Andrews posted a 34-552-3 line as a rookie, one of the better first-year tight end outputs in league history, and looks poised to build on it. Andrews showed solid rapport with Lamar Jackson the second half of last year and in the playoffs. With the Ravens not having a whole lot at receiver, Andrews could realistically see 70-plus targets after getting 50 in 2018.

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I thought just the other day they said John Brown was the most impressive pass catcher in camp.

i think Andrews is one of those could-be-decent dart throws. But pretty much anybody in that bottom tier could be. 

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If I had to pick a player who could have a Kittle type breakout this year it would this man. 

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