Stonej14

Ben Roethlisberger 2019 Outlook

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2018 stats and nfl rank

Pass attempts 675:1st

Completions 452:1st

Yards 5129:1st

Pass TDs 34:5th

Ints 16:1st

Sacked 24: 24th

(Also had 3 rushing tds)

Just signed a new contract extension giving him 80 million over the next 3 years. 

Are we sleeping on this guy or was last year a fluke? The only bad stat there is 16 interceptions and I can live with that if I get 34 TDs and 5000 yards. 

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Posted (edited)

He was the 2018 #3 scoring QB in fantasy but lost AB this offseason, so it's almost certain that the pass attempts/completions, yards & TD will all come down.

However, Big Ben's current QB ADP is QB15 on FFCalculator (pick 113 overall) and QB20 on MyFantasyLeague (overall pick 107).  Obviously the market is assuming a big dip in production (probably overreacting).  Big Ben no longer looking like a possible league winner but seems like a good value at his current ADP.

Edited by J.T. Marlin
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3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Hard pass.

 

Where would ya want him in a 2qb or superflex? Or is he one of your dnd's?

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10 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Where would ya want him in a 2qb or superflex? Or is he one of your dnd's?

 

All my leagues have 1 QB. I usually am the last one to grab one.

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I realize he's old, a POS, and lost Antonio Brown, but I think its kind of crazy that he could go late teens.   I wouldn't have expected a repeat of last year even if Brown was back, but he's still a top 10-12 QB to me.    That defense still gives up a ton of points, and i'm not sold on James Conner being a strong enough runner to make the offense have balance.   He'll throw a f-ton.   I'm not making it a point to chase him, but i'm definitely taking him over a handful of guys that are going before him in drafts.   

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

I realize he's old, a POS, and lost Antonio Brown, but I think its kind of crazy that he could go late teens.   I wouldn't have expected a repeat of last year even if Brown was back, but he's still a top 10-12 QB to me.    That defense still gives up a ton of points, and i'm not sold on James Conner being a strong enough runner to make the offense have balance.   He'll throw a f-ton.   I'm not making it a point to chase him, but i'm definitely taking him over a handful of guys that are going before him in drafts.   

Another reason to go late round QB if u dont get mahommes

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10 hours ago, dashoe said:

Another reason to go late round QB if u dont get mahommes

 

I have Luck over Mahomes but agree with the general statement. Similar to TE, I want either the first 2-3 and if If I dont get them, i will pick one as late as possible.

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Let me take a qb that you can’t play on away weeks that just lost arguably the best wr in football 

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Even in my 14 team league, i'll have at least 3-5 QB's available in the draft for 3 dollars or less that i'm comfortable starting.   In the event that i totally whiff on the two i draft, most people there dont roster more than one, so i'll have waiver options.

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4 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Let me take a qb that you can’t play on away weeks that just lost arguably the best wr in football 

 

That didn't really hold water last year, fwiw.   3 of his 4 worst games were at home.   He played better at Baltimore and at Cincy than he did in the home matchups.  Ben can dud like anyone, so he's not an elite fantasy QB, but I personally no longer have a shred of concern that he's going to be unplayable on the road.   

2017 holds some argument to the home/road thing, but he mostly was just trash all around early in the season, then got red hot in the second half.......though was just ok in the late season road games- his beast weeks were all home.   

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47 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

That didn't really hold water last year, fwiw.   3 of his 4 worst games were at home.   He played better at Baltimore and at Cincy than he did in the home matchups.  Ben can dud like anyone, so he's not an elite fantasy QB, but I personally no longer have a shred of concern that he's going to be unplayable on the road.   

2017 holds some argument to the home/road thing, but he mostly was just trash all around early in the season, then got red hot in the second half.......though was just ok in the late season road games- his beast weeks were all home.   

I thought 2018 was the outlier. As in, even before 2017, Ben had severe home/away splits.

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On 5/9/2019 at 10:55 PM, Panthers8912 said:

Let me take a qb that you can’t play on away weeks that just lost arguably the best wr in football 

And was replaced by arguably a guy who isn't much of a drop-off.

That said FYI this guy is not tossing for 5000 yds this year, in fact I fear he's this close to falling off a cliff. If you're in a big league and really wait on QBs maybe, but I'll be looking elsewhere. 

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On 5/9/2019 at 10:55 PM, Panthers8912 said:

Let me take a qb that you can’t play on away weeks that just lost arguably the best wr in football 

His home and road splits have gotten much better lately. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

His home and road splits have gotten much better lately. 

 

Since his 5 interception game agaisnt the jags in 2017 hes been killing it. Averages over 300 yards a game and 2tds a game since.  

Edited by Stonej14
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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Since his 5 interception game agaisnt the jags in 2017 hes been killing it. Averages over 300 yards a game and 2tds a game since.  

My biggest concern would be volume + running at the goal line. I think it’s a pretty heavy rushing attack this year. Of course Ben is gonna throw the ball. I can’t imagine they are top 8 in passing attempts though. I watch Pittsburgh every year, always have. I’d say a 4200 28/14 season for ben this year. 

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3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

His home and road splits have gotten much better lately. 

 

like @Stonej14 points out, big ben was awakened from hibernation or angered after visiting jacksonville and tossing up 5 INTs.

316 yards per game on the road, 1.75 TD avg on the road, 27.5 / 41 completion avg. on the road:

image.png.fd6acd7e9dd35a269dcb7e411de569c2.png

27 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

My biggest concern would be volume + running at the goal line. I think it’s a pretty heavy rushing attack this year. Of course Ben is gonna throw the ball. I can’t imagine they are top 8 in passing attempts though. I watch Pittsburgh every year, always have. I’d say a 4200 28/14 season for ben this year. 

 

they'll run when the run, pass when they pass: for my two cents, i can predict goal line rushing attempts. i think we'll see whatever works, and keeping defenses off-balance seems to work best. also, conner has great hands, samuels has great hands, and while together they might not equal one bell, it's still a formidable / balanced offense and backfield.

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38 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

like @Stonej14 points out, big ben was awakened from hibernation or angered after visiting jacksonville and tossing up 5 INTs.

316 yards per game on the road, 1.75 TD avg on the road, 27.5 / 41 completion avg. on the road:

image.png.fd6acd7e9dd35a269dcb7e411de569c2.png

 

they'll run when the run, pass when they pass: for my two cents, i can predict goal line rushing attempts. i think we'll see whatever works, and keeping defenses off-balance seems to work best. also, conner has great hands, samuels has great hands, and while together they might not equal one bell, it's still a formidable / balanced offense and backfield.

I just think the balance of the team is really what will limit his numbers. They have put a lot into the defense. It’s going to be a ball control style offense, kind of like Dallas. Which will limit his pass attempts. 

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41 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

conner has great hands, samuels has great hands, and while together they might not equal one bell, it's still a formidable / balanced offense and backfield.

Agree; this isn't Seattle.

PS do you guys really pay much attention to home/away stats? I never have.

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7 minutes ago, bomont said:

Agree; this isn't Seattle.

PS do you guys really pay much attention to home/away stats? I never have.

 

Usually not but the big Ben one was pretty infamous. Drew brees used to have that theme as well.. or maybe it was playing in a dome vs outside.

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19 minutes ago, bomont said:

Agree; this isn't Seattle.

PS do you guys really pay much attention to home/away stats? I never have.

Ben used to throw 5 touchdowns at home against an elite defense and then crap the bed on the road against the raiders. It was bad. 

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17 hours ago, bomont said:

Agree; this isn't Seattle.

PS do you guys really pay much attention to home/away stats? I never have.

Individual home/away splits are useless. Splitting data too much gives too much distortion.

However, the home players do have a 5-10% benefit, but that's over very large groups of data. There is definitely an effect.

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I may be looking for cheap quality QB talent post round 10 in at least two of my leagues which brings me to Big Ben. I haven't even considered him for any mocks or any leagues all summer, but believe it or not, his last preseason game against the Titans was downright impressive and it got me thinking....

why is this guy going so late?

Dominant offensive line, dominant RB's who can catch the ball (Conner + Samuels), Legit WR1 with blooming talent behind Juju and a Very solid TE. 

Big Ben was #3 in QB scoring last season behind Mahomes and Ryan. The Steelers have changed their offense to suit Big Ben even more so that he can take less hits and it has paid off with less sacks and huge YAC numbers.

Just from the interview that was aired yesterday, it seems like this is his team and his voice has even more influence over the team with Bell and Brown gone.

In Round 11, this is some good value. thoughts.

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Managed to grab him as my backup (to Goff), very very happy with the value. I’ll probably end up rotating the 2 of them all year and I don’t see why Ben can’t be a top 10 option again.

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1 minute ago, nonstopfan said:

I may be looking for cheap quality QB talent post round 10 in at least two of my leagues which brings me to Big Ben. I haven't even considered him for any mocks or any leagues all summer, but believe it or not, his last preseason game against the Titans was downright impressive and it got me thinking....

why is this guy going so late?

Dominant offensive line, dominant RB's who can catch the ball (Conner + Samuels), Legit WR1 with blooming talent behind Juju and a Very solid TE. 

Big Ben was #3 in QB scoring last season behind Mahomes and Ryan. The Steelers have changed their offense to suit Big Ben even more so that he can take less hits and it has paid off with less sacks and huge YAC numbers.

Just from the interview that was aired yesterday, it seems like this is his team and his voice has even more influence over the team with Bell and Brown gone.

In Round 11, this is some good value. thoughts.

 

Exactly how I felt. Looks like he's going to be throwing alot and has good weapons. Wish I'd have taken him over Winston

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