Jimmymckrack

David Fletcher 2019 Outlook

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I am shocked that there is no thread on this guy.  Has anyone taken notice to what he has been doing at the plate?!?!

Let me begin to tell you....

To start, not including today, Fletcher owns a 8.0% walk rate while maintaining a 4.5 % K rate.  This is backed up by a 1.5 SwStr%!, 91.1 O-Contact!, and 98.0 Z-Contact%!  In addition, he has lowered his O-Swing percentage from 26.2% to 22.2%. These numbers are absurd.  With over a 100 plate appearances plate discipline metrics are reaching stabilization.  

Fletcher may not have a ton of pop but he has been hot at the plate as of late.  Today, he popped a 105mph screamer over the fence.  His hard hit rate is at a respectable 38.8% which is 9% higher then last year.  In 2018, Fletcher posted a .209 ISO in triple A. There is a chance that 10+ homer potential is possible. 

Finally, Fletcher is hitting leadoff for the Angels, Ohtani is back in the lineup, and Fletcher may have 2nd, 3rd, SS, and OF eligibility by the end of the year.  In a points league, a player like this is gold.

 

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13 hours ago, Jimmymckrack said:

I am shocked that there is no thread on this guy.  Has anyone taken notice to what he has been doing at the plate?!?!

Let me begin to tell you....

To start, not including today, Fletcher owns a 8.0% walk rate while maintaining a 4.5 % K rate.  This is backed up by a 1.5 SwStr%!, 91.1 O-Contact!, and 98.0 Z-Contact%!  In addition, he has lowered his O-Swing percentage from 26.2% to 22.2%. These numbers are absurd.  With over a 100 plate appearances plate discipline metrics are reaching stabilization.  

Fletcher may not have a ton of pop but he has been hot at the plate as of late.  Today, he popped a 105mph screamer over the fence.  His hard hit rate is at a respectable 38.8% which is 9% higher then last year.  In 2018, Fletcher posted a .209 ISO in triple A. There is a chance that 10+ homer potential is possible. 

Finally, Fletcher is hitting leadoff for the Angels, Ohtani is back in the lineup, and Fletcher may have 2nd, 3rd, SS, and OF eligibility by the end of the year.  In a points league, a player like this is gold.

 

 

In the standard 5x5 or 6x6 league this guy is tough to own because the low HR and SB numbers make him a non factor in those 2 cats. 4HR and 6SB in 392 ABs. That makes him a 5-6 HR and 6-8 SB guy over 500+ ABs. The RBIs will be low as he doesn't hit HRs and at the top of the order, so you are pretty much banking on the guy to hit .300 and score a bunch of runs. 

 

That said, the numbers this year are a little more interesting. 3HR and 3SB in just over 100 ABs. I don't think we are looking at a 15-15 or 20-20 season, but maybe 10HR and 10-15 SBs? With the position eligibility and if he can keep the average up at the top of the lineup, he might make for a useful Swiss army knife off the bench like what you get from guys like Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez. Not sure if he is much good in leagues under 14-16 teams.

 

I don't play points leagues but if you are getting positive points for things like singles and negative points for things like K's then I could see him being pretty useful in there.

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14 hours ago, Jimmymckrack said:

Has anyone taken notice to what he has been doing at the plate?!?!

 

Yeah, I noticed him and his crazy numbers a few weeks ago when I was looking at Tommy La Stella and became not as enthused about my La Stella pickup, lol..

Fletcher is playing LF today. Looks like Goodwin is the odd man out... for now. This could be because La Stella is coming back from his injury and Ausmus just wants him to get in a game asap. They might start platooning at 2B at some point to give Goodwin more ABs. Then there's Rengifo, too.

Between all those guys, that's a lot of ABs to give 2 positions. Need to monitor how this shakes out.

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2 hours ago, Bobby Blue said:

 

 

Yeah, I noticed him and his crazy numbers a few weeks ago when I was looking at Tommy La Stella and became not as enthused about my La Stella pickup, lol..

Fletcher is playing LF today. Looks like Goodwin is the odd man out... for now. This could be because La Stella is coming back from his injury and Ausmus just wants him to get in a game asap. They might start platooning at 2B at some point to give Goodwin more ABs. Then there's Rengifo, too.

Between all those guys, that's a lot of ABs to give 2 positions. Need to monitor how this shakes out.

Any idea how many starts at SS he has had this year? I have seen him start at 2B/3B/OF

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13 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

Any idea how many starts at SS he has had this year? I have seen him start at 2B/3B/OF

 

Looks like 2 starts at SS this season, on the 5th and 25th of April, according to bb-ref. No idea why though. Probably just a routine off day for Simmons.

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13 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

Any idea how many starts at SS he has had this year? I have seen him start at 2B/3B/OF

SS: 3 played and 2 starts

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got him very late in a NFBC 15 teamer.  he's a nice fill in for injuries and days off

 

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Seems to hit a ton of doubles too, which as others have noted is great in points leagues. Maybe they start turning into HR’s with the juiced ball. 

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His batting average should actually go up if you believe his Statcast xBA of .340. So few strikeouts and popouts plus good speed makes it very possible.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on any power surges though. His exit velocity is among the league’s worst and his flyball rate is also really low. He’d have to bulk up and change his whole approach and I don’t see that happening. He’s a very valuable real-life player as is, even if he’s kinda meh for roto.

 

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Posted (edited)

Any idea why they keep batting him 9th ?

The 2nd lead off concept or something else. He's hit so well you'd think he would hit higher in the order. Yahoo shows he's 2 played away from SS eligibility which is nice.

Edited by tonywow

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14 minutes ago, tonywow said:

Any idea why they keep batting him 9th ?

 

Tommy La Stella

If it werent for La Stella's break out this season, Fletcher would probably be hitting lead off.

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Can he be productive all season?  I took a flyer on him based on his hot hitting to date and so far so good.  I do wish he would hit higher in the order on a more consistent basis.   In looking at his minor league numbers, there are some positives.  He has an exceptionally low K rate, and projected to have a 10-20 SB upside based on a 500+ AB season.  Career minor league BA of .294 is good, but .102 ISO = Ewww.  He hit for ZERO power outside of the PCL. We're talking a Slg% in the .300's pre PCL, but .456 during his 2 seasons there.  Is that bump cuz of the league alone, or is part it developing more power with age?  Who knows. With the juiced ball being what it is his questionable power might be doable anyway.    I think he will hit for AVG, won't hit many homers, but could chip in 10 +/- SB's on the season.  His plate discipline makes him a nice #1 or #2 hitter in the order.  Good BA, doesn't K, limited power, with solid speed and passable walk rate  on a team that doesn't exactly have the longest lineup at least provides a top of the order opportunity.  1, 2, or 9 is where he will hit.  Let's hope it's 1 or 2.   I can't measure the counting stats because 1 or 2 vs 9 is a big variable, but .285/10/12 the rest of the way seems a reasonable expectation.  Runs would be good if he hits up top. 

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I see Fletcher still gets no respect on this board...Great weekend series and no chatter? Kids been dynamite, and hitting leadoff quite abit lately infront of Mr. Trout. 

 

I think his plate discipline and contact rate will keep him hitting leadoff for a while. WW Gem! 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. 

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I like this guy but isn't he just Tommy LaStella without the power upside.  Both hit for high average and have super low k rates.  They're quite similar.

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Like lastella, is he really a challenge to the batting title? His value is tied into the batting average which is almost sure to go down

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1 minute ago, Dr. Whom said:

Like lastella, is he really a challenge to the batting title? His value is tied into the batting average which is almost sure to go down

it's possible , I was listening to cbs fantasy bb podcast and when discussing both these guys advanced metrics apparently most of their production seems real and sustainable to some extent.  Both have low k rates and  are always putting  the ball in play.   They did note LaStella's power would regress back to pack somebut his high BA was sustainable.

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I'm loving this dude so far. His power/speed isn't going to wow people as a high upside player but that average and on base percentage with some pop and speed is a great steady contributor at MI. His swiss army flexibility is outstanding as well. 

He could have 10-15 HR and SB at year end to go with a great avg/obp... That's a valuable contributor. If he continues to lead off he will be a good run producer.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Like lastella, is he really a challenge to the batting title? His value is tied into the batting average which is almost sure to go down

 

10 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

I like this guy but isn't he just Tommy LaStella without the power upside.  Both hit for high average and have super low k rates.  They're quite similar.

His average is actually 10 points lower than his statcast xBA, and his xBA is the 3rd highest in the league next to Bellinger and Rendon.

La Stella is a 30 year old journeyman... This is a 25 year old in his 2nd season. Before this year La Stella's career high HR was 5 (hit more than 1 only twice coming into the year), career high steals was 2 (his last steal was 5 years ago), and career high average was 288 (every other year was 270 or less)... They are nothing alike.

 

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Just now, StevieStats said:

 

His average is actually 10 points lower than his statcast xBA, and his xBA is the 3rd highest in the league next to Bellinger and Rendon.

La Stella is a 30 year old journeyman... This is a 25 year old in his 2nd season. Before this year La Stella's career high HR was 5 (hit more than 1 only twice coming into the year), career high steals was 2 (his last steal was 5 years ago), and career high average was 288 (every other year was 270 or less)... They are nothing alike.

 

I'm talking about this year and their batting similarities, not their careers.

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9 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

it's possible , I was listening to cbs fantasy bb podcast and when discussing both these guys advanced metrics apparently most of their production seems real and sustainable to some extent.  Both have low k rates and  are always putting  the ball in play.   They did note LaStella's power would regress back to pack somebut his high BA was sustainable.

Here's a flaw to that... When his power regresses, as will his average... La Stella has 12 HR, make 6 of those outs and his average is back to the normal career average of 270.

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I actually got a trade offer this morning with this guy being a piece going to the person who offered it to me.  I think maybe people are beginning to take notice of his season.  I'm in a deeper league so a guy like this is real gold.  I'm tempted to trade high, even tho I do think he will be a decent, high avg 10-15 HR/SB guy going forward.  He's been awesome since I added him.

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26 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

I'm talking about this year and their batting similarities, not their careers.

They still aren't similar even throwing out 30 year old journeyman vs developing young player...

La Stella's numbers are based purely off his unsustainable HR binge, he's hitting 35% FB with 20% HR/FB -- he's hitting .303 and it's due to the HR surge, hes hit 12 HR - if 6 of those are caught on the warning track, hes right back to his career 270 average. His average is pumped up due to that HR binge, when the power regresses as will his average. La Stella also has no speed (slow statcast sprint) and hasnt stolen a base in 5 years. 

Fletcher is succeeding due to his line drive stroke, hitting 28% LD and only 29% FB, resulting in a .323 Average that is 20 points higher than La Stella after his HR binge... Also Fletcher has wheels and has stolen more bases so far this year (5) than La Stella has his entire career.

You got a slow, 30 year old journeyman that is hitting more FB and popped a cluster of HR vs a young developing player with wheels and a line drive stroke more suited for a 300+ Average.

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He's been great especially for any Joram owners. Seems to have hit well everywhere they've put him in the lineup. 

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