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Darrell Henderson 2019 Outlook

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Honestly, if Gurley's knees are as messed up as they seem. He might become a gadget player and may only get max 10 touches a game. Which makes Henderson premier value. I would prefer Henderson over Gurley in dynasty and redraft. If you take the brand name out of it, the decision is easy. Henderson was the most efficient runner in college. He had like a 9 ypc over two seasons. I'm buying wherever I can

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Seriously bringing up his college YPC as an argument is just silly. Memphis was running all over opponents no matter who was in..Henderson, Poland, Taylor Jr..

For me, Henderson is nothing special. Pollard much more electric if you ask me. Rams are for a down year if all rumours about Gurley are true  and Henderson wont change much. Wont buy

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17 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Honestly, if Gurley's knees are as messed up as they seem. He might become a gadget player and may only get max 10 touches a game. Which makes Henderson premier value. I would prefer Henderson over Gurley in dynasty and redraft. If you take the brand name out of it, the decision is easy. Henderson was the most efficient runner in college. He had like a 9 ypc over two seasons. I'm buying wherever I can

 

Henderson over Gurley.  Noted.

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22 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Honestly, if Gurley's knees are as messed up as they seem. He might become a gadget player and may only get max 10 touches a game. Which makes Henderson premier value. I would prefer Henderson over Gurley in dynasty and redraft. If you take the brand name out of it, the decision is easy. Henderson was the most efficient runner in college. He had like a 9 ypc over two seasons. I'm buying wherever I can

 

How would Gurley become a gadget player? do you mean just a decoy? I can't see him taking a jet sweep ... 

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1 hour ago, LuckyLukas said:

Seriously bringing up his college YPC as an argument is just silly. Memphis was running all over opponents no matter who was in..Henderson, Poland, Taylor Jr..

For me, Henderson is nothing special. Pollard much more electric if you ask me. Rams are for a down year if all rumours about Gurley are true  and Henderson wont change much. Wont buy

 

Thanks for that Memphis insight.  Pollard went in my devy dynasty and I had no idea who that was lol.  

 

 Cant agree that Gurley health = Rams success.   Their Oline and unique personnel packages/Mcvay made it all go.  Same 5 line starters for 15 consecutive weeks is a huge advantage.   CJA became Earl Campbell overnight.  We’ll see if they can keep it rolling despite changes.  

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Henderson over Gurley.  Noted.

You gotta take the brand name out of it. If Gurley really has degenerative knees and is going to be out service by week 5, how much value does he really have? I'm not saying he isn't going to get touches, I just think he's going to be limited..and if he is limited, he's not the value everyone thinks he is

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2 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

You gotta take the brand name out of it. If Gurley really has degenerative knees and is going to be out service by week 5, how much value does he really have? I'm not saying he isn't going to get touches, I just think he's going to be limited..and if he is limited, he's not the value everyone thinks he is

Definitely fair-  but it’s all a guess at this point.  And the term “gadget player” doesn’t apply.  More likely he gets additional series off.    Could be 15 touches a game for 16 weeks.   He would be a tremendous value if they’re as productive as 2018.  Risk/reward.  

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Posted (edited)

If Gurley got injured I could see it starting out with Brown getting like 60% of the carries and Henderson the rest.  But after a couple of games I completely think Henderson's explosiveness will shine through and he will start to eat away at Browns carries.  

Brown is a very nice NFL RB.  He could probably start on a team or two out there.  But I just don't think in the long run, he is better than Henderson.  And whether or not it starts out that way, talent will usually win out.  

His size worries me a bit.  I wouldn't want him falling into a Jalen Richard funk, where he never gets a real chance to be a RB and is used almost completely as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

I kind of think JR could have done more with a bigger role, and I certainly think Henderson could. But JR's size might have held him back and it could do so to some extent for Henderson.  I do think Henderson is the superior player though.

Edited by brakeyawself

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I'm less worried about Gurley seeing fewer touches vs just being out mostly or entirely for multiple games. Henderson is a great sneaky late draft pick in bigger leagues IMO. 

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8 hours ago, bomont said:

I'm less worried about Gurley seeing fewer touches vs just being out mostly or entirely for multiple games. Henderson is a great sneaky late draft pick in bigger leagues IMO. 

 

It hasn't been a sneaky move since May 1st or whenever that arthritis report came out that caused everyone to freak out. 

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It might be if Gurley looks fine and the freaking out subsides. He still seems to be pretty highly ranked.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/5/2019 at 12:35 PM, Impreza178 said:

Cant agree that Gurley health = Rams success.   Their Oline and unique personnel packages/Mcvay made it all go.  Same 5 line starters for 15 consecutive weeks is a huge advantage.   CJA became Earl Campbell overnight.  We’ll see if they can keep it rolling despite changes.  

Changes that include 3 OLinemen right?

Goff is terrible under pressure and w Gurley gimped I would bet on the Rams struggling to stay above .500 this year.

Edited by Proteus

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I'll be looking to pick this dude up for free off WWs after Gurley scores 100 points in September with 80% touches. 

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9 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

I'll be looking to pick this dude up for free off WWs after Gurley scores 100 points in September with 80% touches. 

I like your style but I am fairly certain someone in my league will acquire Henderson at auction for about $15, and then hold on for dear life all season in hopes of cashing in a league winner.  That person might be me.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/20/2019 at 10:05 AM, JSA2422 said:

I'll be looking to pick this dude up for free off WWs after Gurley scores 100 points in September with 80% touches. 

He’s been going in round 8-9 from what I’ve seen. I doubt he’s on the wire unless it’s a long while into the season and he’s not getting work. People love upside cuffs 

Edited by bhawks489

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On 6/5/2019 at 11:40 AM, Impreza178 said:

Definitely fair-  but it’s all a guess at this point.  And the term “gadget player” doesn’t apply.  More likely he gets additional series off.    Could be 15 touches a game for 16 weeks.   He would be a tremendous value if they’re as productive as 2018.  Risk/reward.  

 

I think the touches could swing wildly from game to game.

If they've got a big lead or clearly dominating the other teams D-Line, I can see them resting Gurley for long stretches.  Maybe even for the remainder of games.  

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His ADP is currently 6.1 in FFPC best balls, so this guy has a ton of believers out there I guess. I love his film (Pollard's too), and I think there's a chance he could be used enough to warrant that incredibly steep price. I have not bought in there though as that ADP is obviously crazy expensive. That being said, in some ways, I think his ceiling is something similar to Alvin Kamara's rookie year, though I do obviously doubt that happens. Still, if Gurley assumes more of a 2017 Mark Ingram role for the Rams, then I could see Henderson being used similarly to how Kamara was that year. 

Kamara was barely getting drafted in 2017 though. I distinctly remember picking him up off the wire after week one or two in a $250 buy-in half PPR league that year, so people really were not that into him. I know some were of course, who took him probably higher than average, but most were definitely not aware he was going to be amazing. Henderson, way different story obviously with that crazy 6.1 draft cost.

It would not shock me though he was a top 24 RB this year given Gurley's knee woes and how explosive that offense can be. Like others have said, they are in danger of regressing heavily in 2019, but I still think there's more than enough there to keep them as a good fantasy offense, even if they don't dominate the regular season again.

But at that cost, I have not been able to bring myself to pull the trigger. Not even close. Shame because I really do like his tape. 

 

PS- I know Kamara measured 5-10, 214 at the combine compared to 5-8, 208 for Henderson, but their 40s and 3-cones are really close. Kamara obviously is crazy explosive though with a better long jump and vertical and bigger hands. But again, this is ceiling I'm talking about. Rookie year Tarik Cohen is a possibility as well. Maybe MJD rookie year? I guess that's what a lot of people taking him that high are hoping for.

Obviously being nada is a possibility as well, if Gurley is Gurley, but it's looking less and less likely he will be the three down, high snap count workhorse he has been. 

Anyway, this guy is way too expensive for me to take the plunge, but it would not shock me if he was good this year. 

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On 6/5/2019 at 12:35 PM, Impreza178 said:

 

Thanks for that Memphis insight.  Pollard went in my devy dynasty and I had no idea who that was lol.  

 

Least surprising thing i've read all day 😆

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16 hours ago, jetfan1983 said:

but their 40s and 3-cones are really close

giphy.gif

I've rarely seen 3 cones on the field, and RBs only occasionally get to run 40 yard (seriously, Kamara had 2 of those in 2018).

I know I'm being a bit flippant here, but the point is, being an RB is just as much about reading a gap, patience, fooling a LB, burst at the right moment (rather than the right speed), recovering after getting crushed, being a good blocker, knowing the offense, etc. Most of those skills they don't test at the combine, and there are plenty great RBs who didn't do too well there or even chose not to compete. 

What I'm saying is: I'm sure I can show you 2 RBs with similar combine results who couldn't be more different as a runner. Right? Henderson is no Kamara, and that they had similar combine results is irrelevant.

</rant>

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

giphy.gif

I've rarely seen 3 cones on the field, and RBs only occasionally get to run 40 yard (seriously, Kamara had 2 of those in 2018).

I know I'm being a bit flippant here, but the point is, being an RB is just as much about reading a gap, patience, fooling a LB, burst at the right moment (rather than the right speed), recovering after getting crushed, being a good blocker, knowing the offense, etc. Most of those skills they don't test at the combine, and there are plenty great RBs who didn't do too well there or even chose not to compete. 

What I'm saying is: I'm sure I can show you 2 RBs with similar combine results who couldn't be more different as a runner. Right? Henderson is no Kamara, and that they had similar combine results is irrelevant.

</rant>

 

Not flippant at all, I appreciate your input on that, and I would definitely agree. I'll do a better job of not falling into that trap like I did. I admit I'm not grinding film on D.Henderson to really understand if his game will translate to the NFL though what limited film I have seen looks like it will.

Comparing combine results I do think is useful when used correctly, for example with Mecole Hardman and Philip Dorsett since their film does seem eerily similar as well. But to clarify my point more, I do think Henderson could have a similar rookie year impact to Kamara, where in DFS it's correct on some weeks to use both Gurley and Henderson in the same winning GPP lineup and stuff. 

I think the mistake I made with that post is I wasn't clear I was talking about usage and impact, just with Henderson in that role instead of (rookie year) Kamara. And again, I'm talking about ceiling. 

 

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I've rarely seen 3 cones on the field, and RBs only occasionally get to run 40 yard (seriously, Kamara had 2 of those in 2018).

I know I'm being a bit flippant here, but the point is, being an RB is just as much about reading a gap, patience, fooling a LB, burst at the right moment (rather than the right speed), recovering after getting crushed, being a good blocker, knowing the offense, etc. Most of those skills they don't test at the combine, and there are plenty great RBs who didn't do too well there or even chose not to compete. 

What I'm saying is: I'm sure I can show you 2 RBs with similar combine results who couldn't be more different as a runner. Right? Henderson is no Kamara, and that they had similar combine results is irrelevant.

</rant>

 

Add: the importance of the "10 yard split" vs the 40yd time.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/24/2019 at 11:28 AM, jetfan1983 said:

His ADP is currently 6.1 in FFPC best balls, so this guy has a ton of believers out there I guess. I love his film (Pollard's too), and I think there's a chance he could be used enough to warrant that incredibly steep price. I have not bought in there though as that ADP is obviously crazy expensive. That being said, in some ways, I think his ceiling is something similar to Alvin Kamara's rookie year, though I do obviously doubt that happens. Still, if Gurley assumes more of a 2017 Mark Ingram role for the Rams, then I could see Henderson being used similarly to how Kamara was that year. 

Kamara was barely getting drafted in 2017 though. I distinctly remember picking him up off the wire after week one or two in a $250 buy-in half PPR league that year, so people really were not that into him. I know some were of course, who took him probably higher than average, but most were definitely not aware he was going to be amazing. Henderson, way different story obviously with that crazy 6.1 draft cost.

It would not shock me though he was a top 24 RB this year given Gurley's knee woes and how explosive that offense can be. Like others have said, they are in danger of regressing heavily in 2019, but I still think there's more than enough there to keep them as a good fantasy offense, even if they don't dominate the regular season again.

But at that cost, I have not been able to bring myself to pull the trigger. Not even close. Shame because I really do like his tape. 

 

PS- I know Kamara measured 5-10, 214 at the combine compared to 5-8, 208 for Henderson, but their 40s and 3-cones are really close. Kamara obviously is crazy explosive though with a better long jump and vertical and bigger hands. But again, this is ceiling I'm talking about. Rookie year Tarik Cohen is a possibility as well. Maybe MJD rookie year? I guess that's what a lot of people taking him that high are hoping for.

Obviously being nada is a possibility as well, if Gurley is Gurley, but it's looking less and less likely he will be the three down, high snap count workhorse he has been. 

Anyway, this guy is way too expensive for me to take the plunge, but it would not shock me if he was good this year. 

 

I think Justice Hill has a shot at pulling a lesser Kamara.  I can see him being productive with like 15 carries a game.  Hopefully some passing targets, which he will need to make anything close to a Kamara style Impact.

i think Henderson on the other hand has a chance at being a 3 down back.  Even with his height.  But he’s more dependent on Gurley going down than Hill is on an injury in Balts backfield.  

Edited by brakeyawself

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4 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

I think Justice Hill has a shot at pulling a lesser Kamara.  I can see him being productive with like 15 carries a game. 

15 carries for Justice Hill? Per game??

giphy.gif 

What about Ingram, Edwards and Jackson? They all died in a car crash?

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4 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

i think Henderson on the other hand has a chance at being a 3 down back.  Even with his height.  But he’s more dependent on Gurley going down than Hill is on an injury in Balts backfield.  

agreed. henderson absolutely has 3-down capabilities. just that we won't see this ability usage regularly in 2019, or 2020, or 2021. gurley's four-year $57,500,000 disaster contract ($45,000,000 guaranteed---insanity) essentially neuters henderson's upside until the 2022 opt-out.

with gurley's contract so big (and such a screw-up in hindsight), they have to use him... at least until his arthritis flares up, in which case henderson (and/or malcolm brown) step in. when the rams are winning and running out the clock, seems the would spare gurley and play henderson, but all in all doesn't it seem easy to foresee an RBBC? only the percentages of usage within the committee seem unpredictable as playing time might be dictated by arthritic variables (cold weather, stress, pizza, barometric pressure, the moon's proximity to the earth).

HendersonYCoAtt.png

5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

15 carries for Justice Hill? Per game??

 What about Ingram, Edwards and Jackson? They all died in a car crash?

spitballing here, but maybe his post implied that ingram, edwards, and jackson, and hill would all get 15 carries per game?

and maybe once hollywood brown recuperates from his lysfranc, knock the 60 runs per game down to 50 and give 10 targets to the 'lil guy in deeply misplaced long balls.

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On 6/30/2019 at 8:18 AM, Boudewijn said:

15 carries for Justice Hill? Per game??

giphy.gif 

What about Ingram, Edwards and Jackson? They all died in a car crash?

 

I would expect 2 RBs in Baltimore get the majority of plays until either an injury or performance decline force a change.

i expect Ingram, Edwards Zandi Dixon to compete for one of those spots, while Hill takes the other.  Reason being, he is the one out of the 4 with the different skill set.  

I still think Dixon is the most talented all around back on the team, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy.

ingram and Edwards have a lot in common.  They won’t really need to use both as they do similar things.

 

It might not happen right away for Hill.  But I’d expect him to get there by end of the season.

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