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Darrell Henderson 2019 Outlook

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On 6/30/2019 at 5:27 AM, Sack Exchange said:

 

HendersonYCoAtt.png

 

I think what the picture told me the most is.. he could also turn out to be a Devon Johnson, James Butler, Elijah Hood or Josh Adams. 

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He's going early 6th rd in high stakes drafts; would much rather have a top-4 QB (Watson, Rodgers, Luck) or someone like Corey Davis at that ADP.

 

People are acting like Malcolm Brown and John Kelly aren't there just bc the Rams traded up to draft him.

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38 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

He's going early 6th rd in high stakes drafts; would much rather have a top-4 QB (Watson, Rodgers, Luck) or someone like Corey Davis at that ADP.

 

People are acting like Malcolm Brown and John Kelly aren't there just bc the Rams traded up to draft him.

John Kelly means absolutely nothing in this equation. Brown, we’ll see I could see him having a say if Gurley were to go down. But a 6th rounder who looked awful last year means nothing to Henderson.

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

John Kelly means absolutely nothing in this equation. Brown, we’ll see I could see him having a say if Gurley were to go down. But a 6th rounder who looked awful last year means nothing to Henderson.

Did Kelly really look that bad?  I liked him coming out and I know his preseason performance was promising, but I didn't realize he got any meanful regular season work.  I'm kinda hoping he gets cut or traded just to get into a more open situation (KC!), but it's probably not likely.

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2 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

John Kelly means absolutely nothing in this equation. Brown, we’ll see I could see him having a say if Gurley were to go down. But a 6th rounder who looked awful last year means nothing to Henderson.

 

Yeah, because writing off a player after a bad rookie year is 100% foolproof.  LOL. 

 

Henderson is being drafted as though Gurley is the only thing standing in the way of his being a bellcow.  Laughable. 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

Did Kelly really look that bad?  I liked him coming out and I know his preseason performance was promising, but I didn't realize he got any meanful regular season work.  I'm kinda hoping he gets cut or traded just to get into a more open situation (KC!), but it's probably not likely.

I guess you’re right that he didn’t get a ton of regular season work so his 2.7 ypc may not be damning. But that wasn’t good. Being clearly behind Brown all year wasn’t good. Then Brown/Gurley get hurt and the Rams sign CJA off the couch and let him be the lead guy over Kelly. And he performs much better. Then the Rams resign Brown and trade up to draft another back in the early 3rd. All this for a guy who, although I know a lot of people liked prior to last year’s draft, only has 6th round draft capital. If he’s a dent in Henderson’s value then pretty much every rb in the league has to be considered a dent to the backs ahead of them as well.

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yeah, because writing off a player after a bad rookie year is 100% foolproof.  LOL. 

 

Henderson is being drafted as though Gurley is the only thing standing in the way of his being a bellcow.  Laughable. 

 

 

Lol John Kelly isn’t standing in anyone’s way man.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yeah, because writing off a player after a bad rookie year is 100% foolproof.  LOL. 

 

Henderson is being drafted as though Gurley is the only thing standing in the way of his being a bellcow.  Laughable. 

 

 

 

How do you see this shaking out then?  That LA traded up in the 3rd to select their 3rd string RB?

 

Let’s toss Kelly out of the equation.  When he only generates 2.7 ypc on a team where the next least productive RB is going for 4.9 ypc pretty much says what we need to know.

 

A lot of people like to point at the Rams resigning Brown and letting CJA walk as some kind of strong case that Brown is the RB2 and Henderson is just a CoP.  But Brown was brought back at a very cap friendly $1.6M/yr at least as much for his value and versatility on special teams as it was that his price was good and he provided experience and depth at RB - and his coaches have said as much about his special team value.  Most FFers ignore special team players because most leagues don’t credit their stats, but those are very important players to NFL teams.

 

So the Brown advocates point at his 4.9 ypc as being as good as Gurley’s, but want to ignore that a street FA came in late in the year and put up an eye-popping 7.0 ypc and helped carry the O when LA needed it most.  So which player of Brown or CJA has more value as a RB, yet which did LA let go?

 

If Brown is really that productive, then how does he only earn 4 touches - not 4 carries, but 4 touches - a game?  Even as great as Gurley is, he should have been able to get more rest than he did with that kind of bench production.  And Gurley not being able to get some regular season rest hurt LA badly at the end of the season and going into the playoffs when they needed Gurley on the field the most.

 

Now, Henderson hasn’t shown much at all yet at the pro level.  He could be a complete bust if his skills don’t translate well.  But if they do translate, that kid is going to earn some significant playing time.  His home run ability and his capability of generating great yards at the second level and after contact are incredible.  If he pans out, he puts huge pressure on Ds and they can’t afford to make any mistakes against him.  He’s got the potential to be a whole level or two beyond anything that Brown could bring to the table on offense.  

 

If Henderson pans out.  And that’s the rub - he’s an unknown right now and thus we have all the wide range of conjecturing.  But if his skills and ability translate?  Brown is relegated to no more than a special teams afterthought as a RB.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I see Henderson and Brown sharing a 60/40 committee if Gurley goes down.  Gurley gets 80%+ of the touches as long as he is healthy.  And that assumes that Kelley does nothing.  Gurley will not play in the preseason -- just as he didn't last year or in 2017 -- so he will be fully fresh to take the bellcow role of touches starting week 1. 

 

That is not worth a 6th round ADP, but hey, let the suckers draft where they will. 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

I see Henderson and Brown sharing a 60/40 committee if Gurley goes down.  Gurley gets 80%+ of the touches as long as he is healthy. 

 

You think that will be the case after what we saw last season?  That Gurley’s workload will be 80% or more of RB touches?  That McVay learned absolutely nothing after what happened at the end of last year?  

 

You obviously could be correct, but I think myself and many others as seeing that possibility as very remote.  Which is why the move was made to move up for Henderson.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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6.1 for Henderson, given his uncertainties is steep. But give his talent, the Rams offense, and Gurley's woes, 6.1 may end up being cheap. The Kamara comparisons are very intriguing. I'm hoping to get Henderson in several leagues.

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38 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

6.1 for Henderson, given his uncertainties is steep. But give his talent, the Rams offense, and Gurley's woes, 6.1 may end up being cheap. The Kamara comparisons are very intriguing. I'm hoping to get Henderson in several leagues.

 

As would I... 

 

At a much later price though 

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On 7/8/2019 at 12:56 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

"As would I... At a much later price though" 

 

Looking into him two things stand out. The level of competition, although he did dominate.. or as others point out, they did. Reading a player's listed weaknesses at draft tracker you want to read stuff that's just fill. Stuff like; needs better technique in PP, not "elite" at this or that. With Henderson, a number of strengths relate to his production/level of competition. Sometimes we read about a RB's patience, his ability to set up blocks or conversely guys who overrun their blocking or run at a monotone pace. Running upright, playing too fast, average vision & a high center are all related & could be of concern. Some of it is easy, artificial hesitation in the backfield can counter a tendency to overrun. Watching him early (Georgia St.) mid-season (UCF) & later vs Houston & picking up from another source, he tends to carry the ball in his left hand. Not exclusively but there were a number of carries to the right or him bouncing it back to the right with the ball in the wrong hand! An early-entry with small hands & a lot of production vs air.

I happen to see a player with a low center, disproportionately low, with great feet. Some defenders got underneath him but when he anticipates contact he'd finish with good pad level. Tiny catch radius, can't go to these types to win a 50/50 ball, but get it to him out in space, watch out! Ideally, he'd complement Gurley as their down & distance guy. If the perceived issues he has are a mirage or they collectively figure out how to address or mitigate them, besides his own role, he'll cut into the backup's volume. 

  

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Looking into him two things stand out. The level of competition, although he did dominate.. or as others point out, they did. Reading a player's listed weaknesses at draft tracker you want to read stuff that's just fill. Stuff like; needs better technique in PP, not "elite" at this or that. With Henderson, a number of strengths relate to his production/level of competition. Sometimes we read about a RB's patience, his ability to set up blocks or conversely guys who overrun their blocking or run at a monotone pace. Running upright, playing too fast, average vision & a high center are all related & could be of concern. Some of it is easy, artificial hesitation in the backfield can counter a tendency to overrun. Watching him early (Georgia St.) mid-season (UCF) & later vs Houston & picking up from another source, he tends to carry the ball in his left hand. Not exclusively but there were a number of carries to the right or him bouncing it back to the right with the ball in the wrong hand! An early-entry with small hands & a lot of production vs air.

I happen to see a player with a low center, disproportionately low, with great feet. Some defenders got underneath him but when he anticipates contact he'd finish with good pad level. Tiny catch radius, can't go to these types to win a 50/50 ball, but get it to him out in space, watch out! Ideally, he'd complement Gurley as their down & distance guy. If the perceived issues he has are a mirage or they collectively figure out how to address or mitigate them, besides his own role, he'll cut into the backup's volume. 

  

 

I think he can be a good COP back to spell Gurley for breathers. 

 

But if he can't pass protect and needs improvement in receiving he won't be on the field nearly as much as the people of this thread would like. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see him used a bit in stupid packages like how tavon Austin used to be. 

 

I also have no idea who Jojo natson is, but Mayne Henderson can displace him as the return man too. 

 

I don't see him as getting even the 2nd most touches this year until maybe later in the season though like you said. 

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His value is all about gambling on Gurley's health IMO.  Total handcuff.  

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9 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

"I think he can be a good COP back to spell Gurley for breathers. But if he can't pass protect and needs improvement in receiving he won't be on the field nearly as much as the people of this thread would like. I wouldn't be shocked to see him used ... like how Tavon Austin used to be. ... Maybe Henderson can displace ... the return man too. I don't see him as getting even the 2nd most touches this year until maybe later in the season though like you said." 

 

Austin was too diminutive to be a featured WR, tough to throw him anything that's contested. Apart from true bell-cow size, Henderson's isn't lacking in physical attributes & those 11 TD runs of over 50 yds (last year alone) has spiked the kool-aid. I like him too but I agree, where you have to commit, that's betting on Goff, a SB losing team, that offense being as proficient, betting against Gurley... I don't know.    

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

I like him too but I agree, where you have to commit, that's betting on ... a SB losing team

Not sure why that's relevant. 

Edited by smeeze
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16 hours ago, bomont said:

His value is all about gambling on Gurley's health IMO.  Total handcuff.  

 

I can't see him being a complete handcuff without a lot of work though. 

 

If you can't pass protect you can't stay on the field to block for the QB. 

 

I could see him being a "2 down banger", but even those guys aren't allowed on the field for "2 downs" if they can't pass pro.

 

He's dynamic though and I'd think they'd want to keep him on the field. I could see making him a kind of gadget player running sweeps from receiver position, etc. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, smeeze said:

"Not sure why that's relevant." [playing on a SB losing team] 

 

Based on the fact that the losing team is hardly ever an ascending offense the following year.... they're often everybody's punching bag. SB teams are always healthy teams & often times sustain more injuries the next season. They become the target of every divisional rival & the Seahawks, but the 49ers in particular, could make a real run at them. I suppose the Patriots have been the exception, but I think this Rams offense regresses. Often wrong, but that's how I see it.  

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36 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Based on the fact that the losing team is hardly ever an ascending offense the following year.... they're often everybody's punching bag. SB teams are always healthy teams & often times sustain more injuries the next season. They become the target of every divisional rival & the Seahawks, but the 49ers in particular, could make a real run at them. I suppose the Patriots have been the exception, but I think this Rams offense regresses. Often wrong, but that's how I see it.  

I think it’s bound to regress some with a less-than-100% Gurley. They’ll still be a great offense for fantasy in my opinion.

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Based on the fact that the losing team is hardly ever an ascending offense the following year.... they're often everybody's punching bag. SB teams are always healthy teams & often times sustain more injuries the next season. They become the target of every divisional rival & the Seahawks, but the 49ers in particular, could make a real run at them. I suppose the Patriots have been the exception, but I think this Rams offense regresses. Often wrong, but that's how I see it.  

What in the world....

 

Plenty of teams that didn’t play in the Super Bowl suffer more injuries the next year too. As reigning divisions champs they were already the target if that’s even a thing of going into last year. Seems like a really weird thing to be concerned about.

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3 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Based on the fact that the losing team is hardly ever an ascending offense the following year.... 

 

SB losers and their offensive output the year following losing in the SB compared to their SB year:

2010 IND Yds Up Pts  Up

2011 PIT Yds Up Pts Down

2012 NE Yds Same (2 yd diff) Pts Up
2013 SF Yds Down Pts Up
2014 DEN Yds Down Pts Down
2015 SEA Yds Up Pts Up
2016 CAR Yds Down Pts Down
2017 ATL Yds Down Pts Down
2018 NE Yds Down Pts Down
 
That’s 5/9 where the O yds dropped and 5/9 where Pts scored dropped.  It is the majority of the time, but I don’t think it qualifies as “hardly ever” that O gets more productive.
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

"What in the world.... Plenty of teams that didn’t play in the Super Bowl suffer more injuries the next year too. As reigning divisions champs they were already the target if that’s even a thing of going into last year. Seems like a really weird thing to be concerned about."

 

You've misrepresented what I said. I said that teams that go to the SB are healthy teams & the losing team often tends to sustain more injuries the following year. I never said it was a circumstance exclusive to the losing team... I don't know how you got there but it has nothing to do with anything I said! That the teams that go to the SB come back & have a target on their back, more so if I need say, is news to you?  

Accordingly, the Rams were top-3 in rushing yards & rushing TDs. Top-3 in passing yards, 8th in passing TDs. Very impressive & perhaps they will be as productive or near abouts.  But it wouldn't surprise me to see next year's team be middle of the pack in all those categories. To me, if Todd Gurley isn't the same player they've had the last few years & they have to lean on Goff more, I don't know. He's narrow framed & lean-muscled with changes along the interior of the OL. He's not immobile, but he's not going to create much on his own. Accordingly, at Cal he looked to the sideline in a system with a lot of half field reads. Then what came out last year, that they'd get the group up to the LOS so that McVay would have a better look.

I also like teams that add, the cheap old sausage route, I'm not seeing it.

     

Edited by markrc99

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20 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

"That’s 5/9 where the O yds dropped and 5/9 where Pts scored dropped.  It is the majority of the time, but I don’t think it qualifies as “hardly ever” that O gets more productive."

 

Okay, but according to your own material things don't look too good since 2014... 

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The Cardinals lost the 2009 SB, played after the 2008 season. From '08 to '09 their total pass/rush yards were down (-300) & their total pass/rush TDs were down (-2). New England lost the 2008 SB, played after the 2007 season. From '07 to '08 their total pass/rush yards were down considerably (-700+) & total pass/rush TDs were down by 25! 

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