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Darrell Henderson 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

The Cardinals lost the 2009 SB, played after the 2008 season. From '08 to '09 their total pass/rush yards were down (-300) & their total pass/rush TDs were down (-2). New England lost the 2008 SB, played after the 2007 season. From '07 to '08 their total pass/rush yards were down considerably (-700+) & total pass/rush TDs were down by 25! 

Is this a joke? If the Rams offense loses 300 total yards they will go from the 2nd best to the 5th best and if they lose 2 tds they will remain the second highest scoring offense. Drops of 4.5% and 2.3% respectively. Virtually nothing and teams have dips in production like that or worse literally every single season. 

The ‘08 Pats lost Tom Brady to injury prior to the ‘09 season? Think that makes a difference in production? Or are you saying they’ve just been lucky to avoid losing him every other year during their dynasty?

Your previous post lists several things that could cause the Rams offense to decline- OL turnover, Gurley’s injury, they could be decimated by injuries (as could every team). None of those things have anything to do with going to the SB the previous year.

If you have to go back 10 years to find what you think are examples of your point, you probably have no point. Frankly you sound utterly ridiculous.

 

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Is this a joke? If the Rams offense loses 300 total yards they will go from the 2nd best to the 5th best and if they lose 2 tds they will remain the second highest scoring offense. Drops of 4.5% and 2.3% respectively. Virtually nothing and teams have dips in production like that or worse literally every single season. 

 

Your entire post is more of a double down of misrepresentation. I never said that team regression is always significant, but rather a near certainty. Billy established otherwise, but I also said if there were an exception it would be the Patriots. So, his data plus the years I added minus the year the Patriots support his finding leaves 7 of 10 teams experiencing regression. To your last sentence above & I'm already repeating myself, I never said the only teams that experience regression or subject to injury were SB losing teams.  

 

14 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

The ‘08 Pats lost Tom Brady to injury prior to the ‘09 season? Think that makes a difference in production? Or are you saying they’ve just been lucky to avoid losing him every other year during their dynasty?

 

Just to clarify, '09 doesn't apply to New England & Brady was injured week one of the '08 season & of course injuries affect production. Again, I'm not saying Brady got hurt due to the sole fact that he played in the league's final game the prior season. Rather, the ramifications that come with playing in that game. For you & however many others there hasn't been a shred of acknowledgement, it's as if everything is static, nothing really changes. You go to the SB, win 4 games, meh, same difference... so utterly false. For the teams that play in the SB, it's a longer, tougher season. They have a shorter offseason, less rest.  

Conversely & again, with the exception of New England, their opponents level of preparedness is noticeably better! These teams go from a ride to an insurmountable grind, they get everybody's best game, the level of intensity far greater! Whereas the teams that go, when they come back they just don't have the same edge. They're placed under a microscope, everything is magnified, there's distractions, endorsements... stuff adds up! Those teams show why their champions, but they're often not as dominant or consistent. It's tough to repeat & hard to match that fire, while their opponents are like rabid dogs! It's odd that this is news to people in here.  

 

14 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Your previous post lists several things that could cause the Rams offense to decline- OL turnover, Gurley’s injury, they could be decimated by injuries (as could every team). None of those things have anything to do with going to the SB the previous year.

 

Once again, you're making that correlation, not me. I never said Gurley is injured because he played in the SB, a lot of nutty trash. There are any number of contributing factors. I also mentioned Goff, when teams have success the value of their free agents can come at a premium. Then, you get what we see here, adding guys that are past their prime. As for Darrell Henderson, some of what may be of concern to scouts is correctable. If you're drafting after the preseason pay greater attention to how he's carrying the football. Could be wrong, but imo he needs to clean that up.  

Edited by markrc99

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15 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

If you're drafting after the preseason pay greater attention to how he's carrying the football. Could be wrong, but imo he needs to clean that up.  

 

I won’t address the vast predominance of your past few posts, because you posted something incorrect, it was shown to be incorrect, and rather than just saying something like, “Huh, I didn’t realize that.  I guess I was wrong” you continue to double down on it.  That, and it has next to nothing to do with this year’s Rams much less Henderson.

 

However, the quoted above can be a pretty insignificant flaw.  The reason that coaches want players carrying the ball in the sideline arm is that it is further from the reach of interior pursuit and that if they do fumble the ball that it is closer to the sidelines and has a better chance of going OB before it can be recovered.  If the RB simply doesn’t fumble the football, then which arm it is being carried in is pretty much irrelevant.  Watching which arm Henderson carries the ball in is of much less consequence than if he does or doesn’t put the ball on the carpet.

 

Hopefully you won’t pin the next page worth of your posts on this potentially inconsequential point.

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54 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Your entire post is more of a double down of misrepresentation. I never said that team regression is always significant, but rather a near certainty. Billy established otherwise, but I also said if there were an exception it would be the Patriots. So, his data plus the years I added minus the year the Patriots support his finding leaves 7 of 10 teams experiencing regression. To your last sentence above & I'm already repeating myself, I never said the only teams that experience regression or subject to injury were SB losing teams.  

 

 

Just to clarify, '09 doesn't apply to New England & Brady was injured week one of the '08 season & of course injuries affect production. Again, I'm not saying Brady got hurt due to the sole fact that he played in the league's final game the prior season. Rather, the ramifications that come with playing in that game. For you & however many others there hasn't been a shred of acknowledgement, it's as if everything is static, nothing really changes. You go to the SB, win 4 games, meh, same difference... so utterly false. For the teams that play in the SB, it's a longer, tougher season. They have a shorter offseason, less rest.  

Conversely & again, with the exception of New England, their opponents level of preparedness is noticeably better! These teams go from a ride to an insurmountable grind, they get everybody's best game, the level of intensity far greater! Whereas the teams that go, when they come back they just don't have the same edge. They're placed under a microscope, everything is magnified, there's distractions, endorsements... stuff adds up! Those teams show why their champions, but they're often not as dominant or consistent. It's tough to repeat & hard to match that fire, while their opponents are like rabid dogs! It's odd that this is news to people in here.  

 

 

Once again, you're making that correlation, not me. I never said Gurley is injured because he played in the SB, a lot of nutty trash. There are any number of contributing factors. I also mentioned Goff, when teams have success the value of their free agents can come at a premium. Then, you get what we see here, adding guys that are past their prime. As for Darrell Henderson, some of what may be of concern to scouts is correctable. If you're drafting after the preseason pay greater attention to how he's carrying the football. Could be wrong, but imo he needs to clean that up.  

Lol I’m the one misrepresenting? To be clear you took Billy’s data then took out the Pats the year they didn’t meet your criteria but kept in the year they did and added the year their star qb got hurt. Am I correct that’s how you somehow got to 7/10? Come on man. You look more and more ridiculous as you go. Not even mentioning the fact that you admit the regression isn’t always significant when it’s present and that other non SB teams experience regression too. So if it’s not significant and it’s not exclusive to SB teams why would it matter? Hint- it doesn’t because it’s not real. 

 

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Sigh.  Guess I’ll come back in a month or so...

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

"I won’t address the vast predominance of your past few posts, because you posted something incorrect, it was shown to be incorrect, and rather than just saying something like, “Huh, I didn’t realize that. I guess I was wrong” you continue to double down on it. That, and it has next to nothing to do with this year’s Rams much less Henderson."

 

Your information wasn't the first thing I addressed, but I have in fact done so. Not including my stated exception & the specific timeframe you presented, yes, what I said was overstated. However, before you posted I said the one exception would the Patriots. I then went back two seasons prior, the results favoring my contention. Going back two more, the Bears lost the 2007 SB, which is the championship for the 2006 season. In '06 they had 5199 total pass/rush yards & 38 total pass/rush TDs. In 2007 they produced 4692 yards with just 26 total pass/rush TDs. The Seahawks lost the 2006 SB (2005 season). In '05 they had 5915 total pass/rush yards & 54 total pass/rush TDs. In '06 they produced 4977 yards & just 34 total pass/rush TDs (excluding the Patriots, 9 out of the last 12). My saying hardly ever is still overstating, but not by much.

4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

However, the quoted above can be a pretty insignificant flaw.  The reason that coaches want players carrying the ball in the sideline arm is that it is further from the reach of interior pursuit and that if they do fumble the ball that it is closer to the sidelines and has a better chance of going OB before it can be recovered.  If the RB simply doesn’t fumble the football, then which arm it is being carried in is pretty much irrelevant.  Watching which arm Henderson carries the ball in is of much less consequence than if he does or doesn’t put the ball on the carpet.

 

In the three games I reviewed, I did look for it & I didn't see anybody attempting to strip the football from him. I can assure you that his coaches at every level have told him. However, coaches stopped messing with players mechanics years ago. Especially when it isn't an issue & it's a talented player that otherwise produces. I really like his skill set, but that & the other concerns scouts have isn't just filler to appear objective.   

Edited by markrc99

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

"Lol I’m the one misrepresenting? To be clear you took Billy’s data then took out the Pats the year they didn’t meet your criteria but kept in the year they did and added the year their star qb got hurt. Am I correct that’s how you somehow got to 7/10? Come on man. You look more and more ridiculous as you go. Not even mentioning the fact that you admit the regression isn’t always significant when it’s present and that other non SB teams experience regression too. So if it’s not significant and it’s not exclusive to SB teams why would it matter? Hint- it doesn’t because it’s not real." 

 

Yeah you have & you've a done a $h!++y job interpreting what I've said. I'd appreciate you sticking to whatever it is you're attempting to say!!! To me, the Patriots are a team you could bet on, even though they had years that support my contention. I didn't cherry pick the year Brady got hurt. I just went back the two prior to what Billy had added. I've added the figures of the Seahawks & Bears, the tally is now 9 out of 12 .. or 13. You want to reach for SB losing assets, go right ahead! The significance is that if there's a tendency, you'd consider it as you would say, Le'Veon Bell sitting out and now on the Jets. Or, a player coming off a good year but with a history of injury. Not to suggest you'd lend it more weight. If Gurley were a 100% & they had lost 42-35, & they had added, I might not push their adps back as much. If you're liking them great, I hope for your sake you're right. I happen to disagree.     

Edited by markrc99

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49 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Yeah you have & you've a done a $h!++y job interpreting what I've said. I'd appreciate you sticking to whatever it is you're attempting to say!!! To me, the Patriots are a team you could bet on, even though they had years that support my contention. I didn't cherry pick the year Brady got hurt. I just went back the two prior to what Billy had added. I've added the figures of the Seahawks & Bears, the tally is now 9 out of 12 .. or 13. You want to reach for SB losing assets, go right ahead! The significance is that if there's a tendency, you'd consider it as you would say, Le'Veon Bell sitting out and now on the Jets. Or, a player coming off a good year but with a history of injury. Not to suggest you'd lend it more weight. If Gurley were a 100% & they had lost 42-35, & they had added, I might not push their adps back as much. If you're liking them great, I hope for your sake you're right. I happen to disagree.     

Haha. So many logical fallacies I won’t even attempt to address them. Good luck to you. 

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For sanity’s sake please tell us this feud is over.   

 

Henderson isn’t my favorite rookie rb....but he does have talent.   100% dependent on Gurleys health and workload.    Could be a tough role to count on in 2019,  but degenerative knees don’t get better the more you use them.....

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35 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

For sanity’s sake please tell us this feud is over.   

 

 

giphy.gif

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

For sanity’s sake please tell us this feud is over.   

 

But wait.  In 1936 the Boston Redskins lost in the championship to Green Bay, but the following year they became the Washington Redskins and increased their O production and scoring but almost 25%.

 

So based on that, Henderson appears to be the odds on favorite to be the OROY this season.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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3 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

But wait.  [Continues the feud]

giphy.webp

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On 7/13/2019 at 7:36 AM, markrc99 said:

As for Darrell Henderson, some of what may be of concern to scouts is correctable. If you're drafting after the preseason pay greater attention to how he's carrying the football. Could be wrong, but imo he needs to clean that up.  

 

On 7/13/2019 at 8:01 AM, Bronco Billy said:

However, the quoted above can be a pretty insignificant flaw.  The reason that coaches want players carrying the ball in the sideline arm is that it is further from the reach of interior pursuit and that if they do fumble the ball that it is closer to the sidelines and has a better chance of going OB before it can be recovered.  If the RB simply doesn’t fumble the football, then which arm it is being carried in is pretty much irrelevant.  Watching which arm Henderson carries the ball in is of much less consequence than if he does or doesn’t put the ball on the carpet.

 

While, yes, Henderson displays bad fundamentals when it comes to: a) not carrying the ball in the outside arm after moving to one half of the field, and b) not using two arms between the tackles and at the point of contact, he does show outstanding technique carrying the ball, regarding: a) carrying it “high and tight,” and b) employing 5 points of contact: hand, chest, bicep, elbow joint and the forearm...even on break-always. This form is clearly visible in the following video, and employed on a verrry consistent level (side note: you’ll see it “all” on display at the 2:35 mark, he’ll approach the sideline, and yes, keep the ball in the “wrong arm,” 🤦‍♂️ but you’ll notice he uses his free arm to tuck that SOB in there:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rkrt6LkE-xo

IMHO coaching staff will work on carrying ball with the outside arm (to a point...as long as it isn’t an issue 🤷‍♂️) but I’m sure they are encouraged with that outstanding high and tight technique on display 😎

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Posted (edited)
On 7/14/2019 at 10:11 AM, FollowTheLeader said:

"While, yes, Henderson displays bad fundamentals when it comes to: a) not carrying the ball in the outside arm after moving to one half of the field, and b) not using two arms between the tackles and at the point of contact, he does show outstanding technique carrying the ball, regarding: a) carrying it “high and tight,” and b) employing 5 points of contact: hand, chest, bicep, elbow joint and the forearm...even on break-always. This form is clearly visible in the following video, and employed on a verrry consistent level (side note: you’ll see it “all” on display at the 2:35 mark, he’ll approach the sideline, and yes, keep the ball in the “wrong arm,” 🤦‍♂️ but you’ll notice he uses his free arm to tuck that SOB in there:"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rkrt6LkE-xo

"IMHO coaching staff will work on carrying ball with the outside arm (to a point...as long as it isn’t an issue 🤷‍♂️) but I’m sure they are encouraged with that outstanding high and tight technique on display" 😎

 

Thank you, a refreshing transition. I went and looked at the play of interest, vs Georgia St, a game I did review. This was a play I had broken down & was prepared to discuss, for the reason you mention. On this game-specific tape your play is at the very end of the video. I recommend focusing on the replay & running it at half-speed. This is a run to right with Henderson carrying the ball in his left hand on a very well-blocked play. Henderson breaks inside of a double-team & collides with an ILB, lined up on the back side of the play. The LG releases clean into the 2nd tier & is laying on this guy, that's holding! So, this defender isn't able to wrap up & the DB who is also there braces to make contact low, but he isn't able wrap up either. Further, even though he breaks off of these guys the contact is high, he's not running behind his pads here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFmoOHHlBzo

Now, that was a 4th qtr TD run, but the game was already way out of hand. The pursuit when Henderson comes out of that is nonexistent. When he breaks wide like that the ball should be instinctively shifting to that outside hand, his right hand. To better protect the football but also to free up his inside hand to fend off defenders, help maintain his balance thru contact or throw a stiff-arm! That's what I think you're seeing him do there. He's looking to switch hands because it appears a defender is going to make an attempted tackle. When he realizes that player isn't a threat he just reverts back to carrying the ball in the hand he's far more comfortable. Early season game & not good, but this next one is worse.

The video below is Memphis vs UCF, the first matchup around mid-season. They played again for the something something championship, fuq if I know. Here, scroll to 5:04 mark of the video. This is a 1st & 10 play from the UCF 11 yard line. Again, I recommend reviewing this play full screen and at half speed. This is a direct snap to Henderson, a play designed to go to the right. Notice that initially he's in fact carrying the ball in his right hand. Of the three games I reviewed, this is his worst play! UCF easily reads this thing & they're all over it. Henderson fails to recognize that his H-back just runs past the defender setting the edge. Notice the truck-size hole on the back side of this play. If he squares his shoulders to the LOS the moment he sees that guy on the edge coming clean, the line action washes down and that back side daylight comes right to him! 

Now, what he does instead is disturbing! lol Again, the play heads to the right & he's initially carrying the ball in his right hand. However, upon making contact with this defender he poorly reads, HE SWITCHES THE BALL TO HIS LEFT HAND, the one closest to the defender!!! Look, he faced a lot of bad fronts & light boxes vs a lower level of competition. He's an early entry with small hands & I suspect he isn't nearly as comfortable carrying the ball with his right. Don't be shocked when NFL defenses do things with the intent to find out.      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odmrOIgjoZ4

 

 

Edited by markrc99
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21 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Any camp news on Hendo? Haven’t heard any he’s gonna be mvp blurbs or camp chatter../


Not much, but preseason is gonna be where his value skyrockets. 

 

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Got a phone alert saying Henderson expected to receive 9-12 weekly touches....

hype machine building once more? i can see why experts were reaching for him in 5th/6th rounds several weeks ago... 

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7 minutes ago, dannyz6969 said:

Got a phone alert saying Henderson expected to receive 9-12 weekly touches....

hype machine building once more? i can see why experts were reaching for him in 5th/6th rounds several weeks ago... 

You didn't tell the whole story...

Quote
  • The Athletic's Vincent Bonsignore expects Darrell Henderson to handle 9-12 touches per game as a rookie.

    But Bonsignore also suggests Henderson is competing for the change-of-pace role with sophomore John Kelly, who has also been working with the Blake Bortles group this preseason like Henderson. Henderson has shown little as a runner in his preseason action, but the Rams also haven't been using their top-notch offensive linemen. Per Bonsignore, Todd Gurley has looked "fabulous and healthy" all summer. Gurley is still going to be the unquestioned lead back, but how the Rams split up the backfield is a question that has yet to be answered and likely won't be until Week 1 when games start to count. This is a fascinating group to track, and we haven't even mentioned Malcolm Brown yet.

    SOURCE: The Athletic
    Aug 21, 2019, 3:21 PM ET
  •  

I don't know about this guy.  I posted this in the Gurley thread and it sure makes it sound like Malcolm Brown is in the mix.  Henderson seems to be the third down guy at least based on the quotes.  Goff has great things to say about Malcolm Brown.  I'd rather pick up Malcolm Brown in the double digit rounds than to spend on Henderson at his ADP 84.  He's going before Ballage, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard (ok, blech), Jaylen Samuels, and Duke Johnson.  I'd want all of those guys with the exception of Howard before Henderson.

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58 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

Hendo is going to be a Chris Thompson - when Thompson was a solid RB2 - at a minimum in this offense.

 

Even with a beasting Gurley? I think it would be hard to be a RB2

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7 hours ago, CooL said:

You didn't tell the whole story...

I don't know about this guy.  I posted this in the Gurley thread and it sure makes it sound like Malcolm Brown is in the mix.  Henderson seems to be the third down guy at least based on the quotes.  Goff has great things to say about Malcolm Brown.  I'd rather pick up Malcolm Brown in the double digit rounds than to spend on Henderson at his ADP 84.  He's going before Ballage, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard (ok, blech), Jaylen Samuels, and Duke Johnson.  I'd want all of those guys with the exception of Howard before Henderson.

 

Was thinking the same thing. I'll take the actual quotes from the coaches over someone from the Athletic.

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1 hour ago, timexsocialclub said:

Hendo is going to be a Chris Thompson - when Thompson was a solid RB2 - at a minimum in this offense.

 

Totally different situations. Thompson readily played with backs who were not considered "pass catching backs", played with a TE and a slot WR that was regularly hurt and played alongside some uninspiring WR's. 

The Rams have one of the best backs in the league who does a great job of catching the ball and have one of the best WR corps in the league.

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17 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Totally different situations. Thompson readily played with backs who were not considered "pass catching backs", played with a TE and a slot WR that was regularly hurt and played alongside some uninspiring WR's. 

The Rams have one of the best backs in the league who does a great job of catching the ball and have one of the best WR corps in the league.

Yes, different situations. Much better offense and a lead RB who hasn't had more than 20 carries in 8 of his last 9 games and is being scaled back. He's averaged 10.3 carries in his last 5.

Gurley's touches by game last season:

23, 22, 28, 21, 26, 30, 19, 31, 19, 19, 15, 26, 14, 22, 18, 5, 11

Interpret those numbers as you wish. But to me they seem to be going down, not up.

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is he the most expensive handcuff due to the potential and offence? For the price not sure if his situation and potential is better than that of Mattison, Thompson, Justice Hill or others

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