The 7th Beatles

Keston Hiura 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Find it curious why most of the "expert" dynasty rankings I have seen for him have been quite conservative. High 80's on FP and well into the 100s on ESPN. 

Yes, I realize take rankings with a huge grain of salt, but also feel the position + park and the skills should lead to something bigger than that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Nice slide, Keston!

 

 

When you don't like rookies but you need the speed😖😓

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, cad300 said:

Yes, I realize take rankings with a huge grain of salt, but also feel the position + park and the skills should lead to something bigger than that?

In-season rankings from those sites are 10 times more useless than pre-draft. Especially in any sport outside of football. They don't comb the list every update, they just move ~10 players up and 10 down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The kids exciting, but the strikeouts have to be a concern.  Similar to Riley, the roto numbers are there but eventually (unless it changes) the K rate is going to lead to some severe regression.   The sample size is small, and he's a young kid so who knows, but over his last 39 PA's he's K'd 12 times, including 5x in his last 14.    Dare I say, he might be a good sell high candidate at the moment. 

 

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
2019 Totals 30 29 124 113 14 32 3 0 8 15 4 1 7 40 .283 .347 .522 .869 59 1 4 0 0 0 0 .369 100 129
Last 7 days 3 3 14 12 2 6 2 0 1 3 1 0 2 5 .500 .571 .917 1.488 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 .833 240 286
Last 14 days 9 9 39 34 4 10 2 0 2 5 3 0 4 12 .294 .385 .529 .914 18 1 1 0 0 0 0 .400 112 139
Last 28 days 13 13 55 49 6 14 2 0 3 6 3 1 4 17 .286 .364 .510 .874 25 1 2 0 0 0 0 .379 103 126

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@dicka24 If you look at their minor league numbers, that comp isn’t close. As an owner of both in a keeper, I’m not the least bit worried about Hiura.

Hiura was always a 20% K-rate type in the minors. It was a bit higher in AAA this year, but that’s been documented (was crazy high, then he adjusted and was elite). Riley was more of a ~27% K-rate player the last few years in the minors.

Riley has a ton of raw power, but just a 45 future hit tool (Fangraphs), while Hiura’s is a 60. 

If you’re speaking redrafts only, I could see selling if you’ve gotten some crazy offers, but even then I’d look at his AAA game logs this season to see what he does when he adjusts. But in a keeper/dynasty, I’m not selling.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

@dicka24 If you look at their minor league numbers, that comp isn’t close. As an owner of both in a keeper, I’m not the least bit worried about Hiura.

Hiura was always a 20% K-rate type in the minors. It was a bit higher in AAA this year, but that’s been documented (was crazy high, then he adjusted and was elite). Riley was more of a ~27% K-rate player the last few years in the minors.

Riley has a ton of raw power, but just a 45 future hit tool (Fangraphs), while Hiura’s is a 60. 

If you’re speaking redrafts only, I could see selling if you’ve gotten some crazy offers, but even then I’d look at his AAA game logs this season to see what he does when he adjusts. But in a keeper/dynasty, I’m not selling.

 

Agreed. 

Sure he strikes out a little too much but he is a rookie getting adjusted to elite level pitching. So while some could say regression is coming if his K rate continues you could just as easily say that his overall numbers will improve when he gets his K rate down. 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@dicka24 I agree the Ks are very concerning and it might be a good idea to sell, BUT it's impossible to know how he will trend. Looking at other rookies with similar profiles - Fernando Tatis and Austin Riley who both strike out often and don't take many walks - everyone called for regression for Tatis but it's just not happening and same for Riley except he has regressed significantly. I don't know the exact numbers but Tatis has definitely cut his K rate over the course of the year. I think Hiura has to do the same to maintain solid numbers, if the Ks get much worse it will be too late to sell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reason to sell? You got him for nothing. Miss as well trade him and lock in the value to avoid risk if potential regression. Doesn't matter how talented you are, pitchers adjust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Selling" can mean a lot of things as well.  I'm tossing him out in a lot of offers in my keeper league, but mostly for other good keeper options that maybe have a bit less swing and miss speed bump potential.  Kid is going to be special (and probably already is) and I am in no way advocating forcibly moving him. But say if you're in an OBP/OPS league and you have a 2B (weirdly deep position this year) and can use him in a package to get say Alvarez or Soto, that would be a smart move IMO.

If no one bites, meh. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watch this kid swing, it's like he's trying to impersonate Mike Trout. It's uncanny.

 

Sell? lol... This kid is EXACTLY why we play this silly game! All he does is rake, he's a RC who cost nothing, and given his park and surrounding cast he's as good a bet as anyone to provide insane value @ a position not known for power hitters. SMH, who in their right mind is selling? :blink:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

Watch this kid swing, it's like he's trying to impersonate Mike Trout. It's uncanny.

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

My BACKDOOR MAN!!!!!!! Thank you SOOOOO much, I've looked for this GIF endlessly and couldn't find it. You da man... my man! 👏👏👏

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, LarryChip10 said:

Watch this kid swing, it's like he's trying to impersonate Mike Trout. It's uncanny.

 

Sell? lol... This kid is EXACTLY why we play this silly game! All he does is rake, he's a RC who cost nothing, and given his park and surrounding cast he's as good a bet as anyone to provide insane value @ a position not known for power hitters. SMH, who in their right mind is selling? :blink:

 

As always league context is key. In large keeper/dynasty settings that use standard settings I think if you're selling him for anything short of a kings ransom you're a silly goose. If you're in redrafts or very limited keeper league that factor in walks in some way he's still very valuable but not untouchable IMO.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh he’s killing it again? Can’t have that,  Time to send him back down. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This update from Saturday on RotoWire had me in stitches:

Quote

Hiura went 3-for-4 with a walk, a double, a home run and two RBI in Friday's 10-7 extra-inning loss to the Giants.
Spin: The rookie's solo shot in the bottom of the 10th didn't affect the outcome, but it did give Hiura an impressive eight homers in his first 28 big-league games. The 22-year-old is slashing .276/.339/.524 to begin his career, but he'll need to keep producing with Travis Shaw starting to find his stroke at Triple-A.

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

This update from Saturday on RotoWire had me in stitches:

 

Honestly, and I’m not trying to be funny, the way things have gone, it actually has me concerned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

This update from Saturday on RotoWire had me in stitches:

 

Shaw is 10 for his last 24 with 5 home runs, 13 RBIs, 8 walks, and 5 strikeouts. There’s at least a little reason to be concerned. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

This update from Saturday on RotoWire had me in stitches:

 

 

When you bat .150 in the Majors like Travis Shaw and you go to AAA and crush it at a .279 clip you get everyone thinking he's figured things out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Shaw is 10 for his last 24 with 5 home runs, 13 RBIs, 8 walks, and 5 strikeouts. There’s at least a little reason to be concerned. 

Hiura is the Brewers 2nd best hitter already (134 wRC+). But yeah, those 24 ABs in AAA 👌🏼

Shaw can play 1B, 2B, & 3B. He may be the new HPerez utility guy. Or he might get used in a trade. There is zero reason to be concerned, unless Hiura goes into a big funk. The Brewers screwed up once already this season. Can’t imagine they’ll do it again. Their fans will revolt.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13/38 (.342) 4 R 2 HR 6 RBI 4 SB 1.051 OPS over the past 14 days.

 

I think if on one end of the spectrum we have "shaw is hitting and will replace him" and on the other we have "hiura moves higher in the lineup because he's one of our top 3 hitters," we are much closer to the latter of the two scenarios.  I think the days of delusional management of Hiura are over.  With all the non-baseball obstacles out of the way and Shaw given such a long leash, the playing field is level when comparing the two.  Age, years of control, offense, and even defense are all on his side so the person he'd replace in the lineup is Aguilar and Hiura is off the radar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Brewers fan, I seriously can't see them sending Hiura back down again. Not only is he their second best hitter right now, but it's crucial for his development to be seeing major league pitching every day. Stearns may have badly misjudged their pitching this year, but he's smart enough to realize that the team's future depends on Hiura developing as best he can.

There's also a steadily rising probability that the Brewers realize they're going nowhere this year, trade Moustakas, and ride out the rest of the season with Shaw at 3B and Hiura at 2B.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

This is incredible! Thank you for posting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.