MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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7 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Can I ask why? They're very similar.

 

(Chavis/Riley):

Swing% - (51% / 58%)

Outside Swing% - (34% / 41%)

Outside Contact% - (48% / 53%)

SwStr% - (19% / 21%)

Contact% - (63% / 64%)

K% - (33% / 32%)

Minor league track record is why.  Take this as "playful", but I literally said that right after the sentence you bolded. 😉

Obviously nobody can predict what Riley's stats will end up being at the end of the season, but I'm also not one to overly rely on the statcast stats and such either.  They can be helpful obviously, but just because some of his are actually fairly awful doesn't mean he's going to actually be awful.

To get back on point though, I'm more optimistic about Riley than Chavis.  Obviously he had fairly high K totals in the minors as well, but I've seen worse, and the rest of his numbers were pretty solid.  One could make the argument that the numbers for Chavis were actually better on average (Chavis had better numbers through 2018 and this season), but Riley was much more consistent with less dips to around .250 or below in batting average.

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Just checking back in seeing how that benching has been going?

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3 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Just checking back in seeing how that benching has been going?

Sell high... 

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On 6/14/2019 at 2:50 PM, KilloWertz said:

Minor league track record is why.  Take this as "playful", but I literally said that right after the sentence you bolded. 😉

Obviously nobody can predict what Riley's stats will end up being at the end of the season, but I'm also not one to overly rely on the statcast stats and such either.  They can be helpful obviously, but just because some of his are actually fairly awful doesn't mean he's going to actually be awful.

To get back on point though, I'm more optimistic about Riley than Chavis.  Obviously he had fairly high K totals in the minors as well, but I've seen worse, and the rest of his numbers were pretty solid.  One could make the argument that the numbers for Chavis were actually better on average (Chavis had better numbers through 2018 and this season), but Riley was much more consistent with less dips to around .250 or below in batting average.

 Austin Riley is more promisng in a dynasty being far more athleticly gifted, but you couldn't pay to wager him being better than Chavis the rest of THIS season. Chavis current hitting IQ is pretty high. He seems a little more season'd even if he doesn't match Riley's raw talent.

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11 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 Austin Riley is more promisng in a dynasty being far more athleticly gifted, but you couldn't pay to wager him being better than Chavis the rest of THIS season. Chavis current hitting IQ is pretty high. He seems a little more season'd even if he doesn't match Riley's raw talent.

Not really sure how you can make that prediction honestly.  While I still like Chavis and picked him back up recently, he's done very little to make it a near certainty that he will outperform Riley the rest of the season.

My post was also made before Chavis has heated back up again, so it seems like he has indeed made some adjustments and stopped swinging for the fences every time he swings the bat.  He seems to still do it at times, but not every time at least.  With him coming back to life, I wouldn't say Riley is going to blow him away and that Chavis is toast anymore, but I'm still not sure how it's basically a sure thing that he outperforms Riley the rest of the way.  Maybe it does happen, and if it does, great obviously since I own both.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Not really sure how you can make that prediction honestly.  While I still like Chavis and picked him back up recently, he's done very little to make it a near certainty that he will outperform Riley the rest of the season.

My post was also made before Chavis has heated back up again, so it seems like he has indeed made some adjustments and stopped swinging for the fences every time he swings the bat.  He seems to still do it at times, but not every time at least.  With him coming back to life, I wouldn't say Riley is going to blow him away and that Chavis is toast anymore, but I'm still not sure how it's basically a sure thing that he outperforms Riley the rest of the way.  Maybe it does happen, and if it does, great obviously since I own both.

It's been pretty clear from interviews that Chavis has a pretty high hitting IQ. Seems like someone who can make counter adjustments. Riley could be the same, but I wasn't really worried when Chavis started slumping. He's been very consistent getting his power in games since 2017. 

It's probable that the juiced ball makes its easier for free swingers with obviously holes to be sucesful though. I mean people point to Javy Baez, but it took him a few years to actually get into a groove. Don't think people like Riley could have taken off like this pre-juiced ball from the get go. So I may need to simply re-calibrate my thinking.

Edited by Slatykamora

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6 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

It's been pretty clear from interviews that Chavis has a pretty high hitting IQ. Seems like someone who can make counter adjustments. Riley could be the same, but I wasn't really worried when Chavis started slumping. He's been very consistent getting his power in games since 2017. 

It's probable that the juiced ball makes its easier for free swingers with obviously holes to be sucesful though. I mean people point to Javy Baez, but it took him a few years to actually get into a groove. Don't think people like Riley could have taken off like this pre-juiced ball from the get go. So I may need to simply re-calibrate my thinking.

At this point, I think it's just easier to say that they both have a chance of being pretty solid the rest of the season.  I'm not expecting Riley to continue to hit .290, but Chavis' average could continue to creep back up a bit.  They both should be fun to own, which is good enough for me, and it's good to hear about Chavis' hitting IQ.

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Just when people start getting upset at the first sign of faltering...

 

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BOOM! Another HR!

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4 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Just when people start getting upset at the first sign of faltering...

 

spacer.png

 

BOOM! Another HR!

Now's the time to fleece someone. Sell high. Odds are good thst his rookie season will be more Chris Davis than Albert Pujols. 

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On 6/14/2019 at 5:50 PM, KilloWertz said:

Minor league track record is why.  Take this as "playful", but I literally said that right after the sentence you bolded. 😉

Obviously nobody can predict what Riley's stats will end up being at the end of the season, but I'm also not one to overly rely on the statcast stats and such either.  They can be helpful obviously, but just because some of his are actually fairly awful doesn't mean he's going to actually be awful.

To get back on point though, I'm more optimistic about Riley than Chavis.  Obviously he had fairly high K totals in the minors as well, but I've seen worse, and the rest of his numbers were pretty solid.  One could make the argument that the numbers for Chavis were actually better on average (Chavis had better numbers through 2018 and this season), but Riley was much more consistent with less dips to around .250 or below in batting average.

 

Ha! Yea, I pulled a Riley and completely whiffed on reading that. (Kidding).

Fair points all around.

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19 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

Now's the time to fleece someone. Sell high. Odds are good thst his rookie season will be more Chris Davis than Albert Pujols. 

 

Why in the world would anyone sell .285/.331/549 17/51/55 over 80 games? 

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21 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

Now's the time to fleece someone. Sell high. Odds are good thst his rookie season will be more Chris Davis than Albert Pujols. 

giphy.gif

 

I'd buy a Chris Davis rookie season.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

Now's the time to fleece someone. Sell high. Odds are good thst his rookie season will be more Chris Davis than Albert Pujols. 

Awesome news!  Better aim high if selling in the case of Chris Davis!

Edited by BMcP

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I'd sell if someone paid the freight.  So far my ask has been to high for people's liking.  The good thing is he's still hitting.

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Remember a week ago when there were people on here talking about benching him.  Here’s the week they missed out on...

 

 
9-28, 0.321 BA, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 8 R
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8 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Why in the world would anyone sell .285/.331/549 17/51/55 over 80 games? 

I take it you are combining his minor league and major league stats from this season?  Might not be the best thing to do since minor league pitching is not what it is in the majors, but still, I wouldn't sell right now unless I got a really great offer like dicka24 said.

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3 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I take it you are combining his minor league and major league stats from this season?  Might not be the best thing to do since minor league pitching is not what it is in the majors, but still, I wouldn't sell right now unless I got a really great offer like dicka24 said.

 

Those are Chris Davis' rookie year numbers. I thought that he was comparing rookie years and insinuating that Chris Davis' 2008 was something not worth having. Because in 2019, neither of those guys are really worth rostering so why even bring them up in that context?

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Why in the world would anyone sell .285/.331/549 17/51/55 over 80 games? 

Well maybe not Chris Davis. Forgot that his rookie year was actually decent. Insert the name of someone with great minor league numbers and underwhelming major league rookie numbers. Like Matt Wieters. Or Kyle schwarber. 

Edited by Kaii23

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4 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Those are Chris Davis' rookie year numbers. I thought that he was comparing rookie years and insinuating that Chris Davis' 2008 was something not worth having. Because in 2019, neither of those guys are really worth rostering so why even bring them up in that context?

My bad.  I misunderstood your post obviously, and of course his rookie season would be more than worth rostering.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

1/20 since his last homer with 1 walk and 10 Strikeouts. Yikes. 

Hopefully everyone got out before the house burned down. You were warned. 

Edited by Kaii23
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16 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

Hopefully everyone got out before the house burned down. You were warned. 

You should drop him...I dare you...

Riley rules...everyone slumps...patience padawan...

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He had a brutal stretch from 6/5 to 6/11, and then he caught fire.  Now he’s  having another brutal stretch.  He’ll probably catch fire pretty soon, but then he’ll likely go on another cold stretch after that.  Then he’ll probably catch fire again, but after that, I’m guessing there will be another cold stretch.

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1 hour ago, Kaii23 said:

Hopefully everyone got out before the house burned down. You were warned. 

So a 20 AB stretch is about five games, give or take.  Methinks the house is still standing.

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18 minutes ago, BMcP said:

So a 20 AB stretch is about five games, give or take.  Methinks the house is still standing.

I seriously think he sits there on a daily basis praying that Riley does bad just so he can be right and come in here and brag.

Riley will be fine.  Sure, he's not going to hit for a sparkling average, but he'll be fine.  Maybe not quite up the 3B version of Pete Alonso, but still, he should be good enough for me.  The house was insured.

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