MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

I sold this week.  I got a great run from him for free, and I turned him into a roll of the dice, 30 to 40 range (preseason rankings) veteran who's struggled this year, and a proven top 8-10 range closer.  While I think he will hit some homers the rest of the way, the plate discipline and pending return of Inciarte (it will eat into his playing time whether we like it or not) rang the sell bell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dfstout said:

You should drop him...I dare you...

Riley rules...everyone slumps...patience padawan...

Traded him last week 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is some stupid awesome stuff.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main league I've played for YEARS is a weekly lock league..... I sometimes wonder what daily leagues do to some people's heads.  Riley is a young hitter and is going to have cold spells.  I had Bellinger his first year, and picked up his 2nd after his struggles.  For most people complaining - it's YOUR expectations that are the real problem.  Age, experience, health are all variables in the ODDS.  And that's all you can do in this game.  Improve your odds of winning

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just bought 2 shares.  Very happy.  Very excited.  Braves lineup is a dream boat.  He’ll run into stats on accident a lot of times.  Very soft landing spot for a rook.  Still buying anywhere I can.  

Edited by Cmilne23
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

The main league I've played for YEARS is a weekly lock league..... I sometimes wonder what daily leagues do to some people's heads.  Riley is a young hitter and is going to have cold spells.  I had Bellinger his first year, and picked up his 2nd after his struggles.  For most people complaining - it's YOUR expectations that are the real problem.  Age, experience, health are all variables in the ODDS.  And that's all you can do in this game.  Improve your odds of winning

 

Same, and traded him, and regretted it. You're better off riding the wave of a guy you got for free (that raked as much as Belli or Riley) than trading them for someone who you have to wait for to come around

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with rookies is that you don't know if you're on a, highway to heaven or hell. I prefer some sort of major league track record to serve as a, frame of reference. Riley could end up hitting 200 this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

WOW this guy has slowed down. Felt nervous selling high a few weeks ago but now glad I did. 

Edited by Jyeatbvg
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The counting stats will be there, but he has zero plate discipline. In points leagues, he's pretty much an average player due to the strikeouts. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

The problem with rookies is that you don't know if you're on a, highway to heaven or hell. I prefer some sort of major league track record to serve as a, frame of reference. Riley could end up hitting 200 this year. 

 

 

yeah but with a ton of counting stats,  BA isn't the end all for fantasy baseball. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

 

yeah but with a ton of counting stats,  BA isn't the end all for fantasy baseball. 

The homers will slow down too. Not just batting average. He'll be plarooned anyway if his average drops too low. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure at all he’ll be plarooned.  He will be fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Not sure at all he’ll be plarooned.  He will be fine.

If he drops below say 230ish he'll definitely either get benched or relegated to one side of the plate. The Braves are contenders. They're putting wins before development this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

If he drops below say 230ish he'll definitely either get benched or relegated to one side of the plate. The Braves are contenders. They're putting wins before development this year. 

I think a platoon can safely be thrown out.  He kills lefties and is respectable against righties.  I know if the average drops more, the splits obviously drop as well, but you have to be obviously weak against one or the other to get put into a platoon, and that hasn't been the case.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

If he drops below say 230ish he'll definitely either get benched or relegated to one side of the plate. The Braves are contenders. They're putting wins before development this year. 

I realize you traded him a short while ago and would like to see your decision justified.  But there is absolutely no reason based in fact for believing this.  Truthfully, this is misleading advice, unless you can back it up somehow factually.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I realize you traded him a short while ago and would like to see your decision justified.  But there is absolutely no reason based in fact for believing this.  Truthfully, this is misleading advice, unless you can back it up somehow factually.

His 56:8 k:bb ratio and the fact that he only has 170 major league at bats justifies my decision. No one can see the future, but based on his peripherals he's a bad risk. Even if he ended up having a great year I wouldn't regret trading him because odds are much better that he won't. It's the smart move. And I'm a long time braves fan so I definitely don't want to see him fail. But it is what it is. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

His 56:8 k:bb ratio and the fact that he only has 170 major league at bats justifies my decision. No one can see the future, but based on his peripherals he's a bad risk. Even if he ended up having a great year I wouldn't regret trading him because odds are much better that he won't. It's the smart move. And I'm a long time braves fan so I definitely don't want to see him fail. But it is what it is. 

Leaving aside my hatred of the “it is what it is” phrase, you have objectively lost out on a lot of production already if you wrote Riley off due to expected PD issues.  Hell, Khris Davis has PD issues.  You just need to adjust your roster accordingly to off-set the BA/OBP hit in order to take full advantage of the counting stats.

 

Edited by BMcP
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Leaving aside my hatred of the “it is what it is” phrase, you have objectively lost out on a lot of production already if you wrote Riley off due to expected PD issues.  Hell, Khris Davis has PD issues.  You just need to adjust your roster accordingly to off-set the BA/OBP hit in order to take full advantage of the counting stats.

 

Again.. It's not just his lack of plate discipline. It's his lack of major league experience. We have no idea what type of player he is. I could confidently put Khris Davis in my lineup because he consistently hits 250ish with homers. I don't know if Riley is a 280 hitter or a 210 hitter. Rookies are totally unpredictable. History tells us that as a rookie, he will likely struggle this year. Most do. And I haven't lost out on much production because I got a top closer for him. He's someone else's gamble now. 

Edited by Kaii23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gambled and won!

4 hours ago, Kaii23 said:

Again.. It's not just his lack of plate discipline. It's his lack of major league experience. We have no idea what type of player he is. I could confidently put Khris Davis in my lineup because he consistently hits 250ish with homers. I don't know if Riley is a 280 hitter or a 210 hitter. Rookies are totally unpredictable. History tells us that as a rookie, he will likely struggle this year. Most do. And I haven't lost out on much production because I got a top closer for him. He's someone else's gamble now. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, dfstout said:

Gambled and won!

 

Lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dfstout said:

Gambled and won!

 

That's to be determined in about 3 months. But he's sitting at 218 over the past month. 174 over the past week. So.... 

Edited by Kaii23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

That's to be determined in about 3 months. But he's sitting at 218 over the past month. 174 over the past week. So.... 

Blast-phemy!

Kid rakes...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

All this just to prove a banal point that less MLB experience = greater risk?

Well the original point was to help people to cash in on Riley's amazing first month before he regressed to the point that he was no longer tradeable. Yes, a big reason for my wanting to trade him is because rookies are a, bad risk. May as well try to trade him for some real sustainable value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

All this just to prove a banal point that less MLB experience = greater risk?

Well, technically that much is actually true if you compare a rookie to an established producer.

Obviously I've always been on the side of keeping Riley in here though, even though I just recently dealt him myself.  Not because I don't believe in him, because obviously I still do, but the offer was a good one.  With that said, I would still say hold onto him unless the offer was a pretty good one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...