MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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Only saw one of his at bats but he did a great job at staying off those down and out pitches.  Hopefully a sign of things to come. 

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He is Dan Uggla but he’s already peaked. Yes the best is over 

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On 7/10/2019 at 12:00 PM, BMcP said:

Well, he hit .100 over a week.  Time to bail, I guess.

Would you prefer his .202 Batting average across his last 168 PAs, which also represents 3/4th of his entire MLB time? Or cling the first 2 weeks when he went nuts before most pitchers got wise to fact he has very little bat control or PD?

Javy Baez took a couple of years before his aggressive approach started working in his favor. Riley's issues are not ones I think you can expect in season adjustments to remedy. This is something that needs an off-season to work on like the cubs did with Baez. (Baez actually needed 2 off-seasons, 1 to change his swing and 1 to get better at hitting breaking pitches)

I'm sure he will run into mistakes and get some HRs here and there, but the BA and the OBP are going to kill where its hard to justfly the Braves having him anywhere near the middle of it.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Would you prefer his .202 Batting average across his last 168 PAs, which also represents 3/4th of his entire MLB time? Or cling the first 2 weeks when he went nuts before most pitchers got wise to fact he has very little bat control or PD?

Javy Baez took a couple of years before his aggressive approach started working in his favor. Riley's issues are not ones I think you can expect in season adjustments to remedy. This is something that needs an off-season to work on like the cubs did with Baez. (Baez actually needed 2 off-seasons, 1 to change his swing and 1 to get better at hitting breaking pitches)

I'm sure he will run into mistakes and get some HRs here and there, but the BA and the OBP are going to kill where its hard to justfly the Braves having him anywhere near the middle of it.

Are we talking about what the Braves should do or what fantasy owners should do?  I haven’t heard anything to the effect that they’re considering sending him down.  And from a fantasy perspective, I don’t think anyone was rostering him expecting his early AVG/OBP to hold up.  But the prodigious power he’s displayed so far, both in the minors and at the MLB level, is valuable (in fantasy), particularly at 3B where there are only a few elite contributors.

Edited by BMcP
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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Are we talking about what the Braves should do or what fantasy owners should do?  I haven’t heard anything to the effect that they’re considering sending him down.  And from a fantasy perspective, I don’t think anyone was rostering him expecting his early AVG/OBP to hold up.  But the prodigious power he’s displayed so far, both in the minors and at the MLB level, is valuable (in fantasy), particularly at 3B where there are only a few elite contributors.

Lower in the Order=Less R/RBI. Not demotion.

  We are in the middle of a HR record breaking season. He was a great WW pick up for those who nabbed him. They got great value with 16 HRs in a 2 month window. That would be tied for 10th in HRs in that time frame with a .249 BA...but most of that surplus value comes from his very first 2 weeks. 

  Which is the problem...because since the start of June(Which represents 75% of his games played thus far) He has hit 9 HRs. Which sounds solid, until you realize that its only tied for 32nd in that time frame and 81 players have hit at least 7 HRs(over 15-16 of them being 3B). Most of which come with a better BA or some SBs. 

  I get if you gambling on another hot streak and maybe there is a mini one somewhere. I'm not entirely optimistic about it. I'm not the one saying drop him, but you are likely going to put with rather JAG like production ROS at best. At least JAG for this specific juiced season.

Edited by Slatykamora
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11 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Lower in the Order=Less R/RBI. Not demotion.

  We are in the middle of a HR record breaking season. He was a great WW pick up for those who nabbed him. They got great value with 16 HRs in a 2 month window. That would be tied for 10th in HRs in that time frame with a .249 BA...but most of that surplus value comes from his very first 2 weeks. 

  Which is the problem...because since the start of June(Which represents 75% of his games played thus far) He has hit 9 HRs. Which sounds solid, until you realize that its only tied for 32nd in that time frame and 81 players have hit at least 7 HRs(over 15-16 of them being 3B). Most of which come with a better BA or some SBs. 

  I get if you gambling on another hot streak and maybe there is a mini one somewhere. I'm not entirely optimistic about it. I'm not the one saying drop him, but you are likely going to put with rather JAG like production ROS at best. At least JAG for this specific juiced season.

Thank you for the response.  I appreciate the context.  If it’s a fantasy-specific question, I would highly recommend just replacing him with one of those 15-16 3Bs you referenced (you either have one or can probably find one), and giving him some time on the bench to counter-adjust.  He really should not have been expected to complete those counter-adjustments in such a short period, as you alluded to earlier.

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Drop city. We definitely saw what he's capable of, but he needs to work on his approach.

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4 hours ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Are there any rumblings about him being demoted? Has been awful for over a month now. 

It's only a, matter of time. He's totally lost at the plate and the power shots are coming less frequently now. He'll be platooned initially maybe. He's still hitting 325 vs lefties. But his days as a, full time hitter are almost over this season I think. 

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23 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

It's only a, matter of time. He's totally lost at the plate and the power shots are coming less frequently now. He'll be platooned initially maybe. He's still hitting 325 vs lefties. But his days as a, full time hitter are almost over this season I think. 

 

Not if there is an adequate left handed batter against RHP; none of the inciarte, Camargo screams confidence either. Also, Braves manager Snit has a hard time understanding the concept based on his bullpen usage.

So far with what has been said by Snit, sounds like they want Riley to learn to fix his issues with CB and SL through MLB pitching. 

 

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“He’s going through some growing pains right now,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “They have video on him and he’s working and it’s probably as much a mental thing as anything else; just staying with his approach and the confidence in what he’s got going on.”

“We watched Ozzie (Albies) go through that last year. It’s the same-type thing. He’s an intelligent kid. He has a great baseball feel. When he came here, and as good as he was doing, I figured at some point in time he’s going to have to go through this and it’s going to make him a better player for it.”

Despite those struggles, Snitker still has plenty of confidence in Riley.  

“Any time he’s up there, he’s capable of doing something big,” Snitker said. “You’ve got to just be patient and kind of grow with him. Allow them their chance. And, he’ll keep working and studying and learning. He’s got a good feel and good instinct and all that. It’s not anything that you didn’t expect him to go through.” 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/riley-still-looking-for-way-out-long-slump/JOTUVLBTSF5yIBBw2yz6tM/amp.html

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40 minutes ago, BMcP said:

“We watched Ozzie (Albies) go through that last year. It’s the same-type thing."

 

Oh god Albies was useless for like half the year! Maybe it is time to dump

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11 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

 

Oh god Albies was useless for like half the year! Maybe it is time to dump

Albies was never this bad... 

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5 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

Albies was never this bad... 

 

.226 with a .624 ops and 4 home runs in the 2nd half last year is pretty awful

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45 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I think this Sunday is a possibility.

imagine he might eat into some of rileys pt....

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13 minutes ago, herschel said:

imagine he might eat into some of rileys pt....

Thought I saw Sunday. Guess that was wrong.

 

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2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Thought I saw Sunday. Guess that was wrong.

 

That's a wrap on Riley's full time gig. Inceierte is a huge upgrade over him at this point. Best he can hope for is a platoon.. More than likely he'll be demoted tho. 

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