MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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13 hours ago, illasakhil said:

Would you have traded soto last year?

 

Unfortunately I did (say I'm an idiot, it's ok), but I'm not making the same mistake with these really high end prospects, especially one that has come up and immediately become a hitting machine.

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16 hours ago, dicka24 said:

Any fellow owners considering selling right now?  The hype train might never be any higher than it is right now.  Or of course, he's a genuine stud and trading him away might be moronic.  What say you all, shop or keep?

I'm always open to selling every player I own if the price is right. I definitely wouldn't be shopping Riley but I would listen to offers.

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Starting at 3B today. I was hoping he’d get that 5th OF start (and therefore OF eligibility on yahoo) but it’s nice to see they’re doing whatever they can to keep his bat in the lineup.

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9 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Starting at 3B today. I was hoping he’d get that 5th OF start (and therefore OF eligibility on yahoo) but it’s nice to see they’re doing whatever they can to keep his bat in the lineup.

Yeah, I hate to be greedy, but.....

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1 hour ago, Bandito said:

Yeah, I hate to be greedy, but.....

if he can get 4 more starts at 3B, then he can keep his eligibility there for next season (at least on Yahoo).  His OF eligibility is a given.  It's just a matter of another game, or just another week for ESPN.

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1 hour ago, Hatfieldodger said:

What kind of 3B fielding skills does Austin have?

 

He's got a cannon for an arm and has put in a ton of time dropping weight and working on his foot quickness. He can handle the position. 

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Yeah. I need that OF eligibility as well. He’s on the bench today in favor of Vlad and J-ram in my DH spot. The pitcher and the wind being the factor. Otherwise, J-rams been riding the bench.  

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I mentioned this in a game day thread, but with Dansby stinking it up in front  of Freeman....

 

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 2nd 12 12 55 51 6 11 2

1

2 7 0 1 2 8 .216 .236 .412 .648 21 2 0 0 2 0 0 .209

 

...I can see him working his way into batting 2nd real quick. 

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Wouldn't be extremely shocking to see it happen eventually, especially if he continues to mash (which he should).

One could say that wouldn't be the greatest for RBIs, but he'd still have Acuna to knock in, and obviously hitting in front of Freeman would be golden.

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If this is bench coach feel free to move but I am trying to assess how I feel about Riley the remainder of the year. I own him and have been offered a couple of trades for him but with players like this it is difficult to have a sense of what selling at a fair price looks like, especially because projection systems are bearish on call ups and he has had a first week which makes us all think Juan Soto.

 

Obviously he has 70 grade power and the opposite field power is really impressive. All of the projection systems have him at 45-75 games but I think we have to project on the idea that if he stays up and hits he has a nearly full time role. Atlanta has 115 games remaining after today - so let’s say he plays in 100-105 games and has 400AB. Zips would say that equates to:

 

400AB / .255 AVG / 17 HR / 50 R / 55 RBI

 

To me, based on what I have seen in his AAA numbers and first week that is probably closer to the floor as opposed to the midpoint if he gets nearly full time AB’s so the question is what is the ceiling? My guess is the ceiling would have to be something like.

.265 / 25 HR / 65 R / 75 RBI 

That would assume he gets bumped in the lineup, maintains the power surge and doesn’t go through any prolonged adjustment periods. As a reference point last year Soto went 

.292 / 22 HR / 77 R and 70 RBI - a season which saw him finish as a top 75 player.

So I guess selling high probably means looking at a top 75 player at this point - May have answered my own question but would love to hear other thoughts! 

 

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13 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

if he can get 4 more starts at 3B, then he can keep his eligibility there for next season (at least on Yahoo).  His OF eligibility is a given.  It's just a matter of another game, or just another week for ESPN.

 

4 more starts at 3B this year? that will happen, easily. Donaldson gets a good amount of days off. Does he not have 3b eligibility already now? Regardless, he most likely is ATL's starting 3b next year.

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3 hours ago, vmo1059 said:

 

4 more starts at 3B this year? that will happen, easily. Donaldson gets a good amount of days off. Does he not have 3b eligibility already now? Regardless, he most likely is ATL's starting 3b next year.

Yes, but I was more thinking of him getting enough starts to keep his eligibility going into next year.  Forgot about Donaldson only being signed for one year.

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Austin Riley's primary position will be 3rd base. That the position he played on his way to the show. ESPN designates a players primary position. He wouldn't have to qualify at 3rd.   

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OF eligibility in 5 appearance leagues incoming. 

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What are the Braves gonna do when Inciarte returns? Can't imagine they'll take Riley's bat out of the lineup so does Inciarte move to a bench role?

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Just now, smeeze said:

What are the Braves gonna do when Inciarte returns? Can't imagine they'll take Riley's bat out of the lineup so does Inciarte move to a bench role?

Yes.

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24 minutes ago, smeeze said:

What are the Braves gonna do when Inciarte returns? Can't imagine they'll take Riley's bat out of the lineup so does Inciarte move to a bench role?

We hope so.

Sometimes things work out on their like maybe Riley "Kiebooms" or Inciarte's injury is more serious.

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2 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

We hope so.

Sometimes things work out on their like maybe Riley "Kiebooms" or Inciarte's injury is more serious.

Oh, I really hope it's not the first one.  The difference here though (aside from Riley hopefully continuing to rake) is that Kieboom was inevitably going back to AAA anyway as a fill-in for Trea getting healthy.  Obviously, his play caused him to get the boot even sooner, but he wasn't going to get regular PT anyway with Turner back.  In contrast, Inciarte hasn't been good, so they'd be foolish to slot him right back into the OF and cost Riley everyday ABs.  Then again, look at what TEX is doing with Calhoun, so you just never know.  I'm more optimistic with Riley though, given that he can also play 3B and give Donaldson a breather, so versatility may help keep him around, especially if he continues to hit.  His minor league stats were terrific and while the pace he's setting since his promotion probably isn't sustainable, he does look like a legit fantasy star in the making.

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