Boudewijn

Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I think that's a very important caveat!  It's kind of cherry picking a set of data that isn't really relevant to the current situation.  With Wentz under center, Ertz has always been fed.  This time period above also coincides with the acquisition of Golden Tate and them trying to work his short route game into the offense, another wrinkle that has now left town.  

I'm not projecting a career best for Ertz or anything, but I also think there isn't a lot of relevance to that data set in predicting how he'll be used this year.  At any rate, a TE that consistently averages 7-8 targets a game in a high scoring offense with a high end QB, will easily put up top 3 fantasy TE numbers.  If Week 1's stat line included a TD then everyone would be back-patting themselves on a good draft choice.

I'll stand by what I said, other than that I should have written the caveat as follows: "The caveat to this is that Wentz was QB only for the first game and last game in the above-mentioned stretch, so that's certainly worth considering.". It's not as if I was ignoring the caveat...as I was the one who wrote it.

As for Tate, yes, he has left town...but others have entered town since then as well. 

As mentioned, I think there is room for concern, for those expecting another huge season. He can still do well with 112 to 128 targets (7 to 8 targets per game). But his numbers could be closer to 2017 (which is still a good season), versus being in between 2017/2018 as I initially posted about.

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On 9/17/2019 at 1:50 AM, Bluecore said:

Double digit target floor with the WR core banged up? 

Floor is a strong statement. Last season he had an insane target share, and he still had 4 games of less than 8 targets.

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But 10 targets average sounds good. Let's call his floor 7-8 targets.

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I'm not sure what his floor is, but last week with Jeffery, Jackson, and Goedart all going down he had 16 targets. Even Mack friggin Hollins had 8 targets. 

If all 3 of those guys are out this week then choo choooooo

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4 hours ago, matthew berry said:

That was very disappointing 😑

The guy gets 4/64 on 7 targets (still TE13 if I counted correctly) and people are disappointed?

Wow, tough gig.

RedTerrificAtlanticbluetang-max-1mb.gif

Edited by Boudewijn

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

The guy gets 4/64 on 7 targets (still TE13 if I counted correctly) and people are disappointed?

Wow, tough gig.

RedTerrificAtlanticbluetang-max-1mb.gif

I don't have Ertz anymore, but in a game where Philly's top 2 WR's were both out with injury, I think most people expected more than 4-64-0 in Week 3. 4 for 64 without a TD doesn't make a huge impact on many lineups.

Ertz was closer to the #18 TE on the week (he beat #18 Witten by exactly 2 points), than he was #10. 

In my 1 point PPR league, these are his weekly ranks...
--Week 1: #16 TE (5-54-0)
--Week 2: #6 TE (8-72-0 and a 2-point conversion)
--Week 3: #12 TE (4-64-0)
--Overall: #9 TE

Are any of the weeks terrible? No. Are any of the weeks great? No. Ertz has been decent/okay, but so far hasn't been worth the price (in snake or auction) that owners would have paid to get him...which is disappointing IMO.

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20 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Any concerned about the trade rumors? Im screwed if he goes to the jags lol


I haven't really heard any trade rumors about Ertz. Saw his name come up in a couple articles, but they were pure hypotheticals with no real backing and used more of a "fantasy trade" mindset than real life so to speak (i.e. a top player for top player deal, which you don't see a whole lot of in real life). The speculative trades that had the most traction and made the most sense were Goedert + picks for Ramsey, but that's if Philly was willing to give Ramsey the big contract he wants. And that if that kind of deal were to happen, it likely would have happened by now. I think Philly was likely just kicking the tires and doing their due diligence to see what it would take to get a player like Ramsey, just like any team would do when a top player becomes available.

So unless there's something that you've come across that I haven't, I wouldn't be too worried about it.

Edited by Idoolittle

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On 9/23/2019 at 2:36 AM, Boudewijn said:

The guy gets 4/64 on 7 targets (still TE13 if I counted correctly) and people are disappointed?

Wow, tough gig.

 

Around here if a guy doesn't go for 20 points in PPR people are complaining.

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How do we feel about Ertz this week? Deciding between him and Waller has got me in a bind. I feel like the Eagles will have to throw to keep up and I see Ertz as the primary beneficiary. GB is currently #1 against TE's but they have played CHI, MIN, and DEN. If DEN's TEs put up 57 yards I'm not too worried about Ertz. I feel like we are still in the start your studs phase even though they are both studs for different reasons right now. Tough decision but I feel like Ertz could pop off for 100+ in this game especially with Jaire (who has been lockdown) on Jeffrey.

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Has anyone seen the rumors of ertz getting sent to Jacksonville as a part of a package for Ramsey? Could be inactive tonight if true.

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Just now, shindeep said:

Has anyone seen the rumors of ertz getting sent to Jacksonville as a part of a package for Ramsey? Could be inactive tonight if true.


Source?

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2 hours ago, MyDawgggg said:

How do we feel about Ertz this week? Deciding between him and Waller has got me in a bind. I feel like the Eagles will have to throw to keep up and I see Ertz as the primary beneficiary. GB is currently #1 against TE's but they have played CHI, MIN, and DEN. If DEN's TEs put up 57 yards I'm not too worried about Ertz. I feel like we are still in the start your studs phase even though they are both studs for different reasons right now. Tough decision but I feel like Ertz could pop off for 100+ in this game especially with Jaire (who has been lockdown) on Jeffrey.


I've got this situation in one of my leagues and I'm going Ertz. Simply because I have more trust in the Philly offense than I do the Oakland offense. With Alshon still not 100% and DJax being out, Ertz is still their #1 receiver. As you mentioned, the Philly offense had some stiff competition in the first few weeks. So I'd expect it to be better than it has been thus far.

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11 minutes ago, shindeep said:

Has anyone seen the rumors of ertz getting sent to Jacksonville as a part of a package for Ramsey? Could be inactive tonight if true.

I don't wanna say the source wasn't credible, but no one really is familiar with that outlet outside of diehards in Philly. Could there be truth to it? Sure, but I'd say it's pretty unlikely. Especially since it's gained no traction since first being reported. 

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13 minutes ago, shindeep said:

Has anyone seen the rumors of ertz getting sent to Jacksonville as a part of a package for Ramsey? Could be inactive tonight if true.

12 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

Source?

 

To add: Just looking again and I'm seeing pretty much the same things I was seeing from a couple posts ago. Basically just a reddit thread, some random Youtube videos, and a few reporters with little-to-no track record saying their sources heard Philly sent out an offer (most of these reporters don't even primarily cover football). So given that there really hasn't been anything from credible sources about this, I wouldn't worry about it.

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18 minutes ago, shindeep said:

Has anyone seen the rumors of ertz getting sent to Jacksonville as a part of a package for Ramsey? Could be inactive tonight if true.

 

There is virtually no chance this is true.  Why would the Eagles, who are trying to win now, be trading an elite performer like Ertz (instead of draft picks) for Ramsey?  

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4 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

There is virtually no chance this is true.  Why would the Eagles, who are trying to win now, be trading an elite performer like Ertz (instead of draft picks) for Ramsey?  

 

Cause they got Goedert rotting on da bench?

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Kind of an overlooked bust so far.  Seems to be alligator arming/dropping everything and is struggling to get open.  Not catching any contested 50/50 balls either... Better get his act together because Goedert possesses all of the same skills, is more athletic and is a lot better of a blocker. 

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22 hours ago, richiec26 said:

Kind of an overlooked bust so far.  Seems to be alligator arming/dropping everything and is struggling to get open.  Not catching any contested 50/50 balls either... Better get his act together because Goedert possesses all of the same skills, is more athletic and is a lot better of a blocker. 

He's had 7+ targets and over 50 yards in each game so far, def wouldn't categorize him as a bust. Just hasn't had a big game or many touchdowns (just 1) yet. He's still a locked in TE1, and those are still quite valuable 

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22 hours ago, richiec26 said:

Kind of an overlooked bust so far.  Seems to be alligator arming/dropping everything and is struggling to get open.  Not catching any contested 50/50 balls either... Better get his act together because Goedert possesses all of the same skills, is more athletic and is a lot better of a blocker. 

 

Huh?  He's on pace for 88 catches and 976 yards; his second best seasons are 78 catches and 853 yards, respectively.  Unless you were expecting him to repeat last season's insane 116 reception performance (few were), you certainly can't think of this as a bust season.  

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I regretted drafting Ertz the second I drafted him. As long as Alshon is healthy, Ertz's upside is extremely limited. [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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18 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Huh?  He's on pace for 88 catches and 976 yards; his second best seasons are 78 catches and 853 yards, respectively.  Unless you were expecting him to repeat last season's insane 116 reception performance (few were), you certainly can't think of this as a bust season.  

He was a 3rd round pick in almost every draft... hes currently on the outside looking in of the top 75 overall players in points right now....  and looks really bad on film.  That's a BUST so far my guy.

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