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Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook

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GRONKOWSKI left Ertz out of his Top 5 TEs and he said because he loves big tight ends. Isn’t Ertz about the same size as most that were in top 5? Hooper, Andrews, Henry, Kelce, and Kittle. Was Gronk actually talking about football or his preference in women?

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1 minute ago, richiec26 said:

Like I said.... big fat BUST. 

Yeah his one hurts, I just needed a decent game from him. 

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Ertz is no longer an autostart. After watching the game last night, it left me wondering. Are they planning on trading Ertz or something? It’s clear they are involving Dallas more and more, and Ertz is becoming much less of a factor. What are your thoughts?

 

For now, Ertz will stay on my bench unless something changes.

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Just traded for him, this guy has the targets. With this kinda volume in this kinda dumpsterfire of a TE pool, you're a fool if you bench this guy. I'm not saying i like what I see, but hey, I have started Noah Fant as well.

 

 

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1 minute ago, the holy one said:

Just traded for him, this guy has the targets. With this kinda volume in this kinda dumpsterfire of a TE pool, you're a fool if you bench this guy. I'm not saying i like what I see, but hey, I have started Noah Fant as well.

 

 

 

Agree that the TE position is such trash, but Zach Ertz isn’t what he once was. They are involving the other TE so much more now, plus lots of other receiving options. Of course, you can start him easily but I don’t think he’s an auto start anymore. More of a matchup type.

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3 minutes ago, Squidward said:

 

Agree that the TE position is such trash, but Zach Ertz isn’t what he once was. They are involving the other TE so much more now, plus lots of other receiving options. Of course, you can start him easily but I don’t think he’s an auto start anymore. More of a matchup type.

 

I agree on the situation, but i'm not agreeing you can only play matchups with him. If he catches 50% of his targets you have a decent floor, right?

 

I tried the matchup strategy as well, with Noah Fant against one of the worst defenses, which backfired (1 pt - 1 target). It doesn't make sense to play these garbage TE's matchup based, they just need the volume and this guy has it.

 
Edited by the holy one

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He's not getting the same volume as last year but he's still, at worst, a top 6 TE. 

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53 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

He's not getting the same volume as last year but he's still, at worst, a top 6 TE. 

 

Last year he had remarkable stats, but let's compare. The numbers:

 

- Volume. He has received a total of 59 targets so far, he is on pace for 143 targets. Last year he received 156 targets, so i guess you're right but he is still heading for his second best season (targetwise). 

- Catch rate. He caught 116 (75%) of his targets last year. This year he is catching 60% of his targets, so far. He is on pace for 85 catches with this rate. 

- Yards per Catch. He had an average of 10 yards per receptation last year. So far, that number is up to 11,5 yards per reception this year. Extrapolated, that would mean 977 yards this season. Last year he had 1163 yards. Just a difference of 20 points, fantasy wise.

- TD per game rate. He averaged slightly below 50% last year, this year it's abysmal with just 1 TD so far. Huge difference.

___

 

I agree he is regressing based on his superb year of 2018, but volume is not the biggest issue here. 

 

🙂

 

 

 

 

Edited by the holy one
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In 1 point PPR, these are his weekly ranks; Week 7 is unofficial as there's still MNF to be played tonight...

image.png.5b9d5dbc07b2ec40ff1e967995ace55a.png

Beyond ranks, his two best games of the season were:
--8-72-0 and a 2-point conversion
--5-57-1 

He's #9 in PPG amongst TE's (including Henry, who has only played 3 games, and also including Dissly who is out for the rest of the season). Ertz is also behind Greg Olsen in formats that are not a full point for PPR.

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Even in garbage time he barely does anything. He would kill it in garbage time last year.

Pretty disappointed how involved Dallas Goedert is, he even fumbled the ball (was very costly) and was still more involved than Ertz after that.

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33 minutes ago, the holy one said:

 

Last year he had remarkable stats, but let's compare. The numbers:

 

- Volume. He has received a total of 59 targets so far, he is on pace for 143 targets. Last year he received 156 targets, so i guess you're right but he is still heading for his second best season (targetwise). 

- Catch rate. He caught 116 (75%) of his targets last year. This year he is catching 60% of his targets, so far. He is on pace for 85 catches with this rate. 

- Yards per Catch. He had an average of 10 yards per receptation last year. So far, that number is up to 11,5 yards per reception this year. Extrapolated, that would mean 977 yards this season. Last year he had 1163 yards. Just a difference of 20 points, fantasy wise.

- TD per game rate. He averaged slightly below 50% last year, this year it's abysmal with just 1 TD so far. Huge difference.

___

 

I agree he is regressing based on his superb year of 2018, but volume is not the biggest issue here. 

 

🙂

 

Agreed with your overall points, though minor updates to the numbers listed...

TD per game rate: Ertz was right at 50% last year, with 8 TD's in 16 games.

Volume: With 59 targets in 7 games, that's an average of 8.43 targets per game. Over 16 games, that projects to 135 targets (versus 143). With that said, I agree with you that he is still on his way to a high target season. 135 is right in line with what I had come up with over the summer:

On 7/30/2019 at 11:30 AM, Corleone said:

Let's say in 2019, his targets drop to 8.3 per game. Less than 2018 but more than 2017 is not unreasonable IMO. If Ertz plays 16 games (and of course for any player we draft highly, we're hoping for 16 games), that would give him 133 targets

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@Corleone, you are right, i didn't account for the bye and calculated/compared to 17 games 🙂. The overall point still stands obviously, he gets the targets.

Edited by the holy one

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Just now, the holy one said:

@Corleone, I have extrapolated the numbers for an entire NFL season, that's 17 games. Also compared with 17 games of last year!

 Umm....each team plays 16 games in an NFL season. There are 17 weeks and every team has a bye week, for 16 games for every team.

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1 minute ago, the holy one said:

@Corleone, I have extrapolated the numbers for an entire NFL season, that's 17 games. Also compared with 17 games of last year!

 

Just now, Corleone said:

 Umm....each team plays 16 games in an NFL season. There are 17 weeks and every team has a bye week, for 16 games for every team.

As you didn't understand how many games each team plays in an NFL season, I just went back and see that your yards number is thus off as well...
Ertz is on pace for 923 yards this season (not 977).

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2 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 Umm....each team plays 16 games in an NFL season. There are 17 weeks and every team has a bye week, for 16 games for every team.

 

You were quicker to respond than I was able to edit, you are right . 🙂 Editing my post as well.

Edited by the holy one

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Was not able to edit my post anymore, but based on 16 games:

-Volume.
 He has received a total of 59 targets so far, he is on pace for 135 targets. Last year he received 156 targets, so i guess you're right but he is still heading for his second best season (targetwise). 

- Catch rate. He caught 116 (75%) of his targets last year. This year he is catching 60% of his targets, so far. He is on pace for 81 catches with this rate. 

- Yards per Catch. He had an average of 10 yards per receptation last year. So far, that number is up to 11,5 yards per reception this year. Extrapolated, that would mean 923 yards this season. Last year he had 1163 yards. Just a difference of 20,5 points, fantasy wise.

- TD per game rate. He averaged 50% last year, this year it's abysmal with just 1 TD so far. Huge difference. 

Edited by the holy one

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I wouldn’t mind seeing him get traded to the Seahawks before the deadline. Other than that I guess we just hope Goedert gets less share moving forward...

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Sanders took his targets and Goedert is going to take his job.

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