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Amari Cooper 2019 Outlook

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My issue with Amari is and always has been the number of targets. Until that consistently is higher for a season he isn't worth selecting as a WR1 in fantasy, That is the streakiness. And it persisted with the Cowboys, albeit a smaller sample size.

I've seen numbers that he runs good routes to get separation and get open. Why the lack of targets? For a #1 receiver of teams that don't have a surplus of receiving talent around him there is no reason he should not be seeing more than 140 targets. It was better his first two seasons, but he was woefully inefficient catching the ball his first three seasons.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jonasdash said:

 

uhh probably because he went to an entirely new team, with an entirely different offense.   

 

 

 

Some context added to his bad games.  Also, even truly elite WR's have a couple stinkers each year 

For example in 2018:

Julio Jones: 2/18/0 and 4/28/1 

Deandre Hopkins: 3/50/0 and 4/36/1 

Michael Thomas: 4/47/0, 4/48/0, 5/40/0, and 5/29/0

 

Now, is Amari at the same level as those guys when he has an average or good game?  No, not quite.  He's spiked a few times though to levels that blow away games from all three of these guys though, so it's certainly possible he could do it --- the key is consistency.  

When you factor in he was coming to a new team mid-season, and he only had 3/11 games that were bad, 6/11 that were solid, and 2/11 that were outstanding, I think a full off season with an improved Dak, a better OC, a better healthier line, and better WR's around him - he's a no brainer for WR1 level numbers. 

 

Amari Cooper in 61 career games

Has 11 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 14 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 20 games of 30 yards or less.

 

Julio Jones in 111 career games

Has 1 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 5 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 12 games of 30 yards or less.

 

Hopkins in  94 career games

Has 5 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 7 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 10 games of 30 yards or less.

 

Thomas  in 47 career games

Has 0 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 1 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 2 games of 30 yards or less.

 

I used pro football reference.  Sorted career gamelogs by yardage. Some similar players listened has a wide variance.  Anyone from Landry to Adams.  I threw a couple down below at random.

 

Landry in 80 career games

Has 0 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 1 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 2 games of 30 yards or less.

 

DeVante Parker in 54 career games

Has 17 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 24 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 26 games of 30 yards or less.

 

Marvin Jones in 83 career games

Has 11 games of 10 yards or less.

Has 17 games of 20 yards or less.

Has 23 games of 30 yards or less.

 

You are also confident in Dak, no Zeke (possibly), and who are these better receivers on this Dallas roster?

Edited by Sternes

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5 hours ago, sneakerfreak said:

 

70% catch rate last year, but I guess the key word here is HAD. ;)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoopAm00.htm

 

Otherwise I agree that Cooper is streaky but not to a point where I wouldn’t draft him. Just pair him with some more consistent producers to even it out.

 

Catch rate isn't drops.  There is a lot variance in it, because it isn't officially charted, or charted systematically the same way.  He has been near the top of the league in this category every year since he came out.

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How does the drop list look like last season? I would expect some correlation with catch percentage at least which would indicate Cooper did good. I owned him last season and didn’t notice drops.

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16 minutes ago, sneakerfreak said:

How does the drop list look like last season? I would expect some correlation with catch percentage at least which would indicate Cooper did good. I owned him last season and didn’t notice drops.

 

There are a bunch of articles on his drop issues if you google it.  One example:

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Coopers-Drop-Rate-Ranks-Among-NFLs-Worst-479158283.html

This is before last season,

Over the past three seasons, Cooper has had a drop rate of 13.62 percent, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL (among qualifying receivers) behind Torrey Smith (16.82), J.J. Nelson (15.91) and Raiders teammate Seth Roberts (14.39). Wrote Scott Barrett of PFF: “Cooper led the league in drops (18) and drop rate (20.0 percent) in his rookie season (2015), but then seemed to get past the issue in 2016, dropping only four passes. In 2017, Cooper again led the league in drop rate (17.2 percent). Not only are these numbers bad, but they’re historically bad. Since 2007, there have only been three players to see at least 100 targets and post a drop rate of 17 percent or worse: Braylon Edwards (2007 and 2008), Greg Little (2011) and Cooper (2015 and 2017).”

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Thanks. I agree this is the common perception of Cooper’s game. What I am interested in is his drop numbers from 2018 since his catch percentage improved drastically in 2018.

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Posted (edited)

cooper 101 targets 6 drops 

landry 149 targets and 11 drops

Edelman 108 targets 8 drops

tate 113 targets 7 drops

ajg 77 targets 5 drops

dt 89 targets 6 drops

 

a lot of wr have problems with drops. dt, b marshall, always had problem and I want to say mike evans did early on but cant find drop pass leaders from before 2018

maybe im blind but that's terrible that on pro football reference there isn't a column for drops

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen
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I own him, have him for a decent value in my auction keeper league, but I would rather have Robbie Anderson for $1 I think than Amari at $24 and then spend that $23 extra for elite level WR1.  Tremendous skills here, but there is a lot to be cautious about going into 2019.  

* 1 - Team and QB - ask Gallup owners or Cowboys fans about Dak's downfield accuracy, big pass plays take a lot of things to fall into place and the Cowboys do not take that many shots and just lends itself to boom bust.   Team also has some weapons to go to, so we will see. 

2. His boom - bust nature - he did not win any folks much down the stretch in the playoffs last year as his week 15 and 16 were pretty bad.  This year, not a big fan of his matchups down the stretch. 

 

To me in an auction, I think he is almost better being one of those guys I call out early and let the name and the team inflate him a bit.  I think overall he might finish with number totals around where he is being ranked, kind of that borderline WR1 in a 12-teamer, but that said, of the guys in the top 12, my guess is he will have among the fewest total weeks where he produces WR1 numbers for that particular week.  

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, sneakerfreak said:

Thanks. I agree this is the common perception of Cooper’s game. What I am interested in is his drop numbers from 2018 since his catch percentage improved drastically in 2018.

 

2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

cooper 101 targets 6 drops 

landry 149 targets and 11 drops

Edelman 108 targets 8 drops

tate 113 targets 7 drops

ajg 77 targets 5 drops

dt 89 targets 6 drops

 

a lot of wr have problems with drops. dt, b marshall, always had problem and I want to say mike evans did early on but cant find drop pass leaders from before 2018

maybe im blind but that's terrible that on pro football reference there isn't a column for drops

 

 

 

Catch percentage, catch rates and drops are way overrated. For example, players like Chester Rogers, Taylor Gabriel, Jordy Nelson and Rashard Higgins all had a higher catch percentage than DeAndre Hopkins in 2018. There are just so many variables including double teams, extra coverage and down right bad passes by the quarterback.

 

Edited by nonstopfan
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1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

 

 

Catch percentage, catch rates and drops are way overrated. For example, players like Chester Rogers, Taylor Gabriel, Jordy Nelson and Rashard Higgins all had a higher catch percentage than DeAndre Hopkins in 2018. There are just so many variables including double teams, extra coverage and down right bad passes by the quarterback.

 

It is something to consider with Amari since it has plagued him in the past. If a receiver is getting elite WR1 amount of targets then the drops are less of an issue, but he has never really seen that amount of targets either. And likely never will in a run-heavy Dallas offensive scheme.

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Amari is by far an amazing option if you can pair him with Hopkins or Adams. If not, the other amazing route to go with him this year is if you 0-rb and he is your 3rd WR at round 3z

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24 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Amari is by far an amazing option if you can pair him with Hopkins or Adams. If not, the other amazing route to go with him this year is if you 0-rb and he is your 3rd WR at round 3z

 

I play in a rotoworld league, one guy did that 

 

He has Hopkins, AB, Amari, Chris Godwin

 

Starting RBs are jerrick McKinnon and Dion Lewis.

 

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Did find it interesting that from the moment he signed with Dallas to the end of the season he was the #4 wr behind only AB, Adams and Julio and got 7 or more targets in 7 of 9 games. That’s a large enough sample size to dismiss his time in Oakland. Drops or not. I’m going contrarian and ranking him as a back end WR1 would can be had for the price of a 2

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38 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Did find it interesting that from the moment he signed with Dallas to the end of the season he was the #4 wr behind only AB, Adams and Julio and got 7 or more targets in 7 of 9 games. That’s a large enough sample size to dismiss his time in Oakland. Drops or not. I’m going contrarian and ranking him as a back end WR1 would can be had for the price of a 2

Targets are great. But Literally half his production came from two games. That's not nearly enough to dismiss his inconsistencies and vault him into WR1 territory 

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Cooper was a different player with the Cowboys.

1100/7TD's is probably a safe bet.  1400/13TDs is probably his ceiling.

 

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44 minutes ago, fruitjacket said:

Cooper was a different player with the Cowboys.

1100/7TD's is probably a safe bet.  1400/13TDs is probably his ceiling.

 

 

This feels like a realistic range to me, and he was certainly different on the Cowboys.  It's impressive how quickly Dak and Cooper linked up when we saw him struggle to hit Dez consistently, and Amari is confidently playing for that contract.  I think that kind of rapport means something and I'm guessing he gets closer to the higher end, so I'm happy to take him in the third if I have my first RB.     

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11 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

Did find it interesting that from the moment he signed with Dallas to the end of the season he was the #4 wr behind only AB, Adams and Julio and got 7 or more targets in 7 of 9 games. That’s a large enough sample size to dismiss his time in Oakland. Drops or not. I’m going contrarian and ranking him as a back end WR1 would can be had for the price of a 2

 

On 8/3/2019 at 10:31 AM, Sternes said:

5 of his TDs came in those two games, against secondaries that seemed to be made of players from local rec leagues. 

 

Outside of those two games he racked up TDs against PHI and WAS, he had one other catch that went for 20 or more yards while on the Cowboys. That catch was also against Philly.

 

In his 9 games in Dallas he had 725 yards and 6 TDs. He had 397 yards and 5 TD in the two big games against Philly and Washington. He had 328 yards and 1 TD in the other 7 games for Dallas. 

 

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11 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Would you take the over or under for 128 targets this year for Cooper?

8 targets a game every game without any time missed to injury is steep.   I think I’d take the under even tho I’m a big Amari fan this season 

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21 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Would you take the over or under for 128 targets this year for Cooper?

Good number. I'd say under because of the team philosophy. But that could all change this season.

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

Good number. I'd say under because of the team philosophy. But that could all change this season.

Agree-  good number.  

 

Team philosophy isn’t changing.   If they can’t dominate on the ground it’s a mediocre qb trying to play Aaron Rodgers.   Bad news and Dallas knows it.    That team is built around the running game. 

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I'd feel more comfortable with Amari in a best ball format rather than a season long redraft.  Too Whac a Mole-ish for me.

And is there something in the water in Dallas that makes people nuts?  Amari wants to wait until Julio signs because he wants presumably a comparable deal?  What?  He thinks he is on Julio's level?!  Dak wanting $40 million and more money than Russell Wilson?  I hope JJ holds his ground.

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45 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

8 targets a game every game without any time missed to injury is steep.   I think I’d take the under even tho I’m a big Amari fan this season 

 

That's basically it. 8 target average for 16 games. 

I'm not sure how Kellen Moore calling plays will change anything but I'm hoping that he keeps peppering Amari with targets. If he can reach 128 targets or more he will have 100 catches. If he has 100 catches he will have 1,200 yards or more and his TD could fluctuate from 6 all the way up to close to 10.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, fruitjacket said:

Cooper was a different player with the Cowboys.

1100/7TD's is probably a safe bet.  1400/13TDs is probably his ceiling.

 

 

1400/13TDs isn't his ceiling. Its the wet dream that he has when he's thinking about how great life would be if he was Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill or Julio Jones.

Edited by nonstopfan

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