Boudewijn

Marlon Mack 2019 Outlook

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4th rounder in 2017 for the Colts; spent one year behind Gore, and in 2018 got to 1000 yards total in 12 games, which is pretty good.
He missed 4 games at the start of the 2018 season due to a hamstring; if we extrapolate from 12 to 16 games, he has a potential of 1350 yards, 22 receptions and 13 TDs. Great numbers, of course except if you play PPR, because then you want a bit more receiving work out of your backs.

I also noted that in 2018 he had 4 games of 100+ yards; but he also had 4 games of less than 40. That's quite a bit of boom/bust and something to consider. 
It's not really his fault: there were 4 days that the entire Colts O ran for 50 yards or less. With a guy like Mack who doesn't catch a lot, if the running game isn't working (or is ignored by the coaches for tactical reasons), you're fuXX0red.

All in all, this is probably not a guy for PPR, but in standard (maybe .5 PPR), this is a guy with RB1 production in total yards, and who can win you some games on his own.

 

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Everything working in this guys favor. Good defense to keep game scripts positive, elite offensive line to open up holes, elite QB to discourage defenses from stacking boxes against him. Health is my only concern for him going into 2019, seems to be dinged up quite a bit. 

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Even in PPR hes a top 15 RB to me. Right after Chubb and Cook go hes right there in that grouping of D.Williams,Fournette,Jones,Freeman,Sony and Henry. To me the only guy of the ones I just listed I'd take over him would be Williams. 

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Colts showed a lot of confidence in Mack by not signing a big time free agent (Spencer Ware doesn't really count) and not going after an RB in the draft.

So he's clearly their guy.  Only problem as mentioned is that he doesn't get much passing work, since Nyheim Hines is obviously the 3rd down guy.

He had four games of 24+ carries which is great, and a 4.4 ypc average for the year.

He'll probably cost a high 3rd round draft pick.  An acceptable RB2 in PPR.  But like the post above, I might lean Damien Williams in a PPR format.

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1 hour ago, buzzkilloton said:

Even in PPR hes a top 15 RB to me. Right after Chubb and Cook go hes right there in that grouping of D.Williams,Fournette,Jones,Freeman,Sony and Henry. To me the only guy of the ones I just listed I'd take over him would be Williams. 

 

i like marlon mack enough that i’m not concerned about his lack of targets, even in PPR. i think the solidity of the indy defense will create enough opportunities for mack to somewhat offset his limited role through the air.

 

i would draft mack over cook (because of health), chubb (because of hunt), dwilliams, fournette.

 

i would draft derrick henry and mixon over mack.

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

i like marlon mack enough that i’m not concerned about his lack of targets, even in PPR. i think the solidity of the indy defense will create enough opportunities for mack to somewhat offset his limited role through the air.

I would draft mack over cook (because of health), chubb (because of hunt), dwilliams, fournette.

i would draft derrick henry and mixon over mack.

 

Mack's current ADP is 28.  Mixon is in another tier, his ADP is 14. Mack over Cook (18) and Chubb (20) is bold, but for reasons you state, I could see why you might avoid.  But unless you're going to take Mack with a 15-20 pick, you won't really have a shot at any of those three anyways.  That's a little rich for Mack.

I'm looking at Mack as a top of the 3rd round pick in a 12 or 14 team league.  Henry's ADP is at 35.  I could see the argument for Henry, but he's disappointed so much that I just can't do it. 

I think really for most (depending on draft slot), your decision will be Mack, Damien Williams, or Fournette.  That's where most of the debate is going to come regarding Marlon Mack this year.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, CooL said:

Colts showed a lot of confidence in Mack by not signing a big time free agent (Spencer Ware doesn't really count) and not going after an RB in the draft.

So he's clearly their guy.  Only problem as mentioned is that he doesn't get much passing work, since Nyheim Hines is obviously the 3rd down guy.

He had four games of 24+ carries which is great, and a 4.4 ypc average for the year.

He'll probably cost a high 3rd round draft pick.  An acceptable RB2 in PPR.  But like the post above, I might lean Damien Williams in a PPR format.


I disagree; Colts have been reportedly in the RB market. They brought in Jay Ajayi, who has a history with Reich in Philly, but didn't reach a deal (yet). Ajayi is probably looking for either a bigger role, more money or longer contract. He won't find it.

But the fact that they entertained the prospect of adding Ajayi is evidence that Mack is "clearly" not their guy, and are open to bringing in competition (or at least some very good insurance). Don't be surprised if they bring in another RB soon which may put a dent in Mack's value. 



 

Edited by AirForceOne
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9 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


I disagree; Colts have been reportedly in the RB market. They brought in Jay Ajayi, who has a history with Reich in Philly, but didn't reach a deal (yet). Ajayi is probably looking for either a bigger role, more money or longer contract. He won't find it.

But the fact that they entertained the prospect of adding Ajayi is evidence that Mack is "clearly" not their guy, and are open to bringing in competition (or at least some very good insurance). Don't be surprised if they bring in another RB soon which may put a dent in Mack's value. 



 

Agree with the general premise, but there isn't a lot out there. Other than Ajayi, who could they sign that would be a threat. Alex Collins? Doubt it. Buck Allen? No way. The RB market is pretty barren.

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

Mack's current ADP is 28.  Mixon is in another tier, his ADP is 14. Mack over Cook (18) and Chubb (20) is bold, but for reasons you state, I could see why you might avoid.  But unless you're going to take Mack with a 15-20 pick, you won't really have a shot at any of those three anyways.  That's a little rich for Mack.

I'm looking at Mack as a top of the 3rd round pick in a 12 or 14 team league.  Henry's ADP is at 35.  I could see the argument for Henry, but he's disappointed so much that I just can't do it. 

I think really for most (depending on draft slot), your decision will be Mack, Damien Williams, or Fournette.  That's where most of the debate is going to come regarding Marlon Mack this year.

 

agreed, that right now it looks like mack, dwilliams, and fournette regarding decisions. and i agree that top of the third seems like a good value for mack right now. but we've all seen how some drafts surprise us, how some players go  very early, some very late, some where there's a run on QBs, others a run on TEs. drafts are somewhat fluidic, regardless of ADP, as owners reach for who they want.

with henry, i do believe the titans look to feature him more, to build an offense around him more, and the weapons at WR (and delanie coming back) should keep defenses legit and prevent them from continually stacking the box. last year, to mack's success, he faced one of the least stacked boxes overall (5.5 to 6.5 players) due to luck's arm (certainly not do to WR talent). the wildcard in tennessee is QB, and mariota (if healthy) has not looked threatening. i'd bet we see henry go in the second round in some drafts and fourth round in others. i will take him in round 3 every time. you mention how henry has disappointed so much, and really this is what i'm counting on to keep his draft cost lowered.

we all play in multiple leagues, and we're all surprised. while i think mixon is in another tier talent-wise, his offense undermines his success; we might see kittle and ertz and mahomes go before mixon, whether or not we agree it's a smart or stupid move. last year i saw rashad penny go in round 2 in one league, and devonta freeman get taken in round 1, and so on. ADP is one aspect to consider, but another is the high/low: footballcalculator shows mixon going as high as 1.06, mack going as high as 1.09, and for me both of these are insane. AJ Green has been taken as late as 4.01 (criminal), mahomes as early as 1.01 (crazy in all but mandatory two-QB leagues).

i usually play auction, so there's a lot more flexibility and variability, but i hope to land mack on the cheap while other owners overpay for dwilliams. i don't fall in with the fournette basher crowd here regarding his ypc, though his health is a concern. @AirForceOne just posted regarding ajayi's visit, but i'm not concerned, in part because i like the way mack played last season, and how he was used, and how the coaches speak of him, and in part because ajayi's explosiveness includes his body parts and he's not a season-long candidate, if he's taken on. i think mack will see double-digit TDs this season, that the colts' defense will help to create these red zone opportunities, so that early third round price tag for a 1000-yard / 10TD floor seems solid. my two cents.

 

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57 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:


I disagree; Colts have been reportedly in the RB market. They brought in Jay Ajayi, who has a history with Reich in Philly, but didn't reach a deal (yet). Ajayi is probably looking for either a bigger role, more money or longer contract. He won't find it.

But the fact that they entertained the prospect of adding Ajayi is evidence that Mack is "clearly" not their guy, and are open to bringing in competition (or at least some very good insurance). Don't be surprised if they bring in another RB soon which may put a dent in Mack's value. 



 

 

Mack is a lot better than Ajayi. Teams bring in players all the time for depth purposes.

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1 hour ago, AirForceOne said:

They brought in Jay Ajayi

And he left without a deal, and still doesn't have one.  That should tell you about all you need to know about how the league feels about Ajayi at this point.

 

They ended up signing Ware, which is a great depth signing.  Mack is better than Ware in every aspect save the passing game, and they already have Hines for that.  From Week 6 on last season, Mack was the RB7 in standard leagues.  He'll lose some touches to the other guys, but this is his backfield.  

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9 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Love Mack this year.

 

Agree. What's not to love? If his ADP stays in the 3rd round he has a chance to be a league winner IMO. He could easily be a top 5 RB if he stays healthy and the Colts offense is as good as expected.

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Posted (edited)

The colts  added more pass catchers so it makes me wonder what macks potential value in ppr is this season. .

I like his current value as the primary rb  on what may be an  explosive offense this season  but I'm not sure as to what his actual  potential is with the  pass catching additions.  I think Hines value has definitely plummeted

Edited by dashoe

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33 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The colts  added more pass catchers so it makes me wonder what macks potential value in ppr is this season. .

I like his current value as the primary rb  on what may be an  explosive offense this season  but I'm not sure as to what his actual  potential is with the  pass catching additions.  I think Hines value has definitely plummeted

 

He seems like a lock for 10+ TDs. Prob wont catch a ton.

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Pretty glad I've kept Mack in my keeper league.

I've seen Mack's ADP lower than 28 in a few different rankings. If I could get him in round four, I'd be pretty stoked.

But I'd like to hear an argument why one should draft Dalvin Cook over Marlon Mack. Is it cause of RBBC? Which offense will be better, Vikings or Colts?

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13 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

Pretty glad I've kept Mack in my keeper league.

I've seen Mack's ADP lower than 28 in a few different rankings. If I could get him in round four, I'd be pretty stoked.

But I'd like to hear an argument why one should draft Dalvin Cook over Marlon Mack. Is it cause of RBBC? Which offense will be better, Vikings or Colts?

I think everyone is enamored with Dalvin Cook's 3 down skillset.  He had an explosive 19/136/2 game last year and another where he caught 8 balls.  So obviously perhaps a safer PPR asset.  And with Murray gone, the RBs behind him are some dudes named Mattison, Boone, Roc Thomas, and the always underwhelming Ameer Abdullah.  Mack's gotta contend with Hines, Wilkins, and Spencer Ware. 

But I'm starting to think that the ADP gap between these two should narrow.  Cook has injury concerns.  And Mack was awesome last year and scored 10 TDs and looks like to be the redzone RB.  Now if Cook is indeed a bellcow and won't get pulled at the goalline, then things could change.  Will have to see how things develop in camp.

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8 hours ago, dropshadows said:

Pretty glad I've kept Mack in my keeper league.

I've seen Mack's ADP lower than 28 in a few different rankings. If I could get him in round four, I'd be pretty stoked.

But I'd like to hear an argument why one should draft Dalvin Cook over Marlon Mack. Is it cause of RBBC? Which offense will be better, Vikings or Colts?

 

I think Cook is the superior athlete and player. If you could guarantee me that both would play 16 games I'd rather have Cook 100% of the time. 

 

That's not to trash Mack though. I think he's solid and plays on a great offense with a great QB. And as long as there aren't 5 RB's to feed generally great offense + great QB = great RB fantasy production. 

 

I do believe Vikings offense is even better this year than it was last year too though. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I do believe Vikings offense is even better this year than it was last year too though. 

in terms of personnel it's more or less the same (TE/WR/QB), minus Lat Murray, plus a year of experience for Cousins, and they drafted a center in the first round, which is really interesting. For Cook, both losing Murray (who had 162 touches last season) and the changes to the O-line could be crucial.

It should be noted that Mike Zimmer rarely has anyone with more than 200-225 touches; the notable exception was AP in 2015, partially because he was AP, but also because they essentially had nobody else. So I think the limit for Cook under normal circumstances would be around 200 touches, slightly more than 2018.

Reich in Indianapolis is a similar kind of coach, but Mack had 200 touches in just 12 games. That tells me Mack has more room for growth than Cook. It's definitely an interesting situation for both.

 

Edited by Boudewijn

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8 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

If you could guarantee me that both would play 16 games I'd rather have Cook 100% of the time.

 

I definitely don't disagree with this. I got burned by drafting Cook last year so some of that disappointment residue is still there, haha.
I have to remember to keep an eye on team's offensive lines before I start drafting.

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I dont love Mack the player, but he's in an ideal situation, and they dont have much other than what I believe to be complimentary backs riding alongside him.   Even if they get Jay Ajayi in there, just wait a few weeks, he'll be inactive again and your anxiety fades.     

 

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

I dont love Mack the player, but he's in an ideal situation, and they dont have much other than what I believe to be complimentary backs riding alongside him.   Even if they get Jay Ajayi in there, just wait a few weeks, he'll be inactive again and your anxiety fades.     

 

 

What are the reasons you don't like Mack as a player? Particularly interested in the running portion as I think he is good running the ball.

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19 hours ago, Geaux Saints said:

He could easily be a top 5 RB if he stays healthy and the Colts offense is as good as expected.

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21 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What are the reasons you don't like Mack as a player? Particularly interested in the running portion as I think he is good running the ball.

 

I just think he's a good, not great runner, and not a great receiver.    I said don't love him, not don't like him- a mild difference but the tone might've been misinterpeted.  He's fine.   

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