Boudewijn

Marlon Mack 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

I just think he's a good, not great runner, and not a great receiver.    I said don't love him, not don't like him- a mild difference but the tone might've been misinterpeted.  He's fine.   

 

I dont think he is a very good reciever either. He is a good runner though. I feel like he has already proven that in the league.

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Who has the better opportunity to catch more passes this year? 

 

Derrick Henry or Marlon Mack? 

 

I'm liking both guys and thinking I'm going to be put into a situation to choose 1 or the other and I'd probably prefer the guy that would catch more. 

 

Why is Nyheim Hines even on on the field anyway? That guy is hot garbage. He can have 10 yards of running room and need to pick up 6 for a first down and still manage to put the Colts into a 4th and 3.

 

And D Henry let himself forfeit breaking a record to give Dion Lewis a shot at a TD and he was completely worthless at it. That guy is finished. I owned Lewis last year, had a Lewis vs Henry bet last year and was all in on wanting Lewis to succeed. The complete ineffectiveness popped out of the TV screen though. That guy is washed. 

 

Why are scat backs that are worthless even a thing actually? These guys (Mack / Henry) are football players. Are these coaches really trying to convince us that a football player can't catch a football? 

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Are these coaches really trying to convince us that a football player can't catch a football? 

Sorry, what?

 

Seriousy, there is a difference between catching a ball, and being a good or great receiver. True pass-catching backs become more and more common in the NFL, but not every back can run a route, or catch a defended pass, or a badly thrown wobbler. Henry and Mack are great rushers, but just OK receivers, and for teams that have enough options, there's not always a reason to force it into their hands more than a couple times a game.

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Sorry, what?

 

Seriousy, there is a difference between catching a ball, and being a good or great receiver. True pass-catching backs become more and more common in the NFL, but not every back can run a route, or catch a defended pass, or a badly thrown wobbler. Henry and Mack are great rushers, but just OK receivers, and for teams that have enough options, there's not always a reason to force it into their hands more than a couple times a game.

 

What is your YouTube video trying to tell me here?

 

You don't think Mike Evans or Julio Jones can catch a football cause they dropped a pass?

 

What if I told you that as long as the NFL will exist players both good and bad players will continue to eventually drop a catchable pass?  Would you believe me?  Because it's true.  

 

Marlon Mack and Derrick Henry can catch a football and make defenders missed if called upon.  Their route tree might not be as extensive as some, but they are football players and can play football and you or anyone else will never convince me otherwise.  I have played a low level of football and no one can convince me that everyone of us practicing 2x a day for months on end didn't have a good understanding of football, what is happening at all times, and what needs to be done.

 

Now Mack and D Henry... they did their 2 a days and turned it into a full time job that they do literally all the time, every day, all day.  No one will ever convince me they can't run a route and catch a ball.  Ever.  Sorry.  If you want to argue that point with me, I will simply have to block it, cause I will NEVER get behind it and it will be a waste of time.

 

I don't like to bring in a "running" RB on a predictable rush situation then remove him for a different "pass catching" RB on a predictable pass situation.  I never have and never will.  The Patriots destroyed football because the GOAT was willing to play for Peanuts and build a super team around him and convince every other team in the NFL that this is how you win football games.  Give me backs that do everything and keep defenses guessing and don't try to convince me a football player can't play football.

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11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

What is your YouTube video trying to tell me here?

I was just having fun :)

11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I don't like to bring in a "running" RB on a predictable rush situation then remove him for a different "pass catching" RB on a predictable pass situation.  I never have and never will.  The Patriots destroyed football because the GOAT was willing to play for Peanuts and build a super team around him and convince every other team in the NFL that this is how you win football games.  Give me backs that do everything and keep defenses guessing and don't try to convince me a football player can't play football.

Well, yes, but, except, that's not necessarily what the Patriots do. Take for instance White and Michel in 2018. Both had around 200 touches for the year, but their usage is completely different:

image.png.ff1a4651f5c364fec81b85604f9a6e20.png

If you split it by down as a percentage of the snaps, you also see that on later downs, they used less Michel and more White.
image.png.8c9540e50ce0e892502b67137dbfeb33.png

Both you and me like Belichick as a smart coach, who uses players to the maximum of their abilities. So what would you say is going on here? 

I mean we're getting a bit far from Mack, but the point is (I guess) that smart coaches make these choices too, and if they didn't use Mack last year a lot in the passing game, then I don't see a big reason to expect a major uptick there for 2019.

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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I was just having fun :)

Well, yes, but, except, that's not necessarily what the Patriots do. Take for instance White and Michel in 2018. Both had around 200 touches for the year, but their usage is completely different:

image.png.ff1a4651f5c364fec81b85604f9a6e20.png

If you split it by down as a percentage of the snaps, you also see that on later downs, they used less Michel and more White.
image.png.8c9540e50ce0e892502b67137dbfeb33.png

Both you and me like Belichick as a smart coach, who uses players to the maximum of their abilities. So what would you say is going on here? 

I mean we're getting a bit far from Mack, but the point is (I guess) that smart coaches make these choices too, and if they didn't use Mack last year a lot in the passing game, then I don't see a big reason to expect a major uptick there for 2019.

 

If Tom Brady earned $30 M a year no other coaches would copy cat this strategy because the Patriots would not be 6 time champions.

 

Tom Brady is the GOAT.  He gets paid less than half what he should.  This frees up giant money for the rest of the team.  If he had demanded max money his entire career these strategies would be meaningless because the Patriots would not have nearly the amount of rings they have today. 

 

Don't forget that before Tom Brady became elite Tom Brady they were winning Super Bowls giving their RBs 400 touches a season.  

 

Tom Brady destroyed football and Bill B destroyed the RB position by convincing the rest of the NFL it wasn't necessary to pay a good one when you could have 4 OK ones.  But this strategy would have never worked had Tom Brady accepted max money at his position.

 

That's just how I feel.  

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1 minute ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

If Tom Brady earned $30 M a year no other coaches would copy cat this strategy because the Patriots would not be 6 time champions.

 

Tom Brady is the GOAT.  He gets paid less than half what he should.  This frees up giant money for the rest of the team.  If he had demanded max money his entire career these strategies would be meaningless because the Patriots would not have nearly the amount of rings they have today. 

 

Don't forget that before Tom Brady became elite Tom Brady they were winning Super Bowls giving their RBs 400 touches a season.  

 

Tom Brady destroyed football and Bill B destroyed the RB position by convincing the rest of the NFL it wasn't necessary to pay a good one when you could have 4 OK ones.  But this strategy would have never worked had Tom Brady accepted max money at his position.

 

That's just how I feel.  

Fine. But how is that in any way related to what I wrote? :D

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On 5/28/2019 at 2:00 AM, Boudewijn said:

 there is a difference between catching a ball, and being a good or great receiver.

You'd think that'd be stating the obvious. Some RBs are weak receivers, and Mack is one of those.

 

Quote

Henry and Mack are great rushers, but just OK receivers

I disagree. Mack is a pretty good rusher whose OL makes him (or his stats anyway) look great. And they are both poor receivers, though I think Henry is worse.

Overall I have Henry just ahead of Mack. I think Mack will catch a few more but barely and won't score as much.

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Mack can catch, Henry can catch, neither will see many catches bc they aren’t great route runners and other rbs are better in that area. However, from a general strategy standpoint, idk why more coaches don’t just use their “2 down” rb more in the passing game. Why tip your hand so much for the defense when you have a 2 down guy and a COP guy? 

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I'm not sure what's so hard about what "not a good receiver" means. Saying someone "can catch" is meaningless. I'm sure all RBs can kick too, yet amazingly you don't see any pulling duty as PKs or punters. 

Believe me, if Mack was a good receiver, he'd be seeing more tossed his way. Ditto Henry. Or any other back who catches very few balls. 

 

 

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This guy scares me, I don’t think he’s very good and his tape really isn’t very impressive. He doesn’t create anything himself, he’s got a great o-line that is creating huge holes for him. But does it even matter if he’s a JAG in this offense with little competition for touches? Hines will get action in the passing game but Mack should get a ton of action on the ground and some dump offs. I guess as long as he’s healthy he should return value in the third round.

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If I'm forced to choose between Henry and Mack, both of whom I value about equal, when I pick in a draft, I would choose Mack simply because he's in a higher-powered offense.  

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If I had to choose between Mack & Henry, I'd definitely choose Henry. Higher ceiling and more durable IMO.

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16 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Mack simply because he's in a higher-powered offense.  

 

Yup. Indy has a top-rated Offensive Line.


My worst decisions on draft day are made because of my lack of knowledge on teams' OLs.

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From what I have seen he is erratic. Looks great at times, looks pathetic others. Can't catch. If the Colts had a truly good RB he would tear it up on this team. I think Mack will be OK and have a few big games but nothing amazing overall. Your basic RB2 with a modest upside.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, The G Man said:

If I had to choose between Mack & Henry, I'd definitely choose Henry. Higher ceiling and more durable IMO.

 

I would definitely choose Mack because of improved o-line, more dynamic offense that includes a competent QB and the fact that Titans LG Lewan (who is a great run blocker as well) will be suspended for 4 games.

Edited by nonstopfan
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5 hours ago, dropshadows said:

 

Yup. Indy has a top-rated Offensive Line.


My worst decisions on draft day are made because of my lack of knowledge on teams' OLs.

I notice this a lot too!  Many of my mistakes can be directly traced back to me not knowing how bad their O Line was.  A poor O Line just breaks an offense in many cases

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Maybe I'm crazy but I think Mack is a stud.  As a rookie he had zero patience, didn't grasp the blocking scheme.  Last year he made huge strides in those areas.  Would it shock anyone if he made improvements in the receiving game next?

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12 hours ago, bomont said:

From what I have seen he is erratic. Looks great at times, looks pathetic others. Can't catch. If the Colts had a truly good RB he would tear it up on this team. I think Mack will be OK and have a few big games but nothing amazing overall. Your basic RB2 with a modest upside.

 

How did he perform in the second half of last year when he was healthy?

 

No one is going to confuse Mack for Gurley or Zek but he is the clear lead back, will be running behind a great oline, in a very good offense. Hines will get his catches but he did last year too and Mack still produced in the 2nd half. If Mack stays healthy he will put up RB1 numbers.

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I’m starting to think we’re a little too concerned with RBs catching passes. Of course, it’s a factor in PPR, but just one factor. Other factors are talent, situation, opportunities, goal line work, etc. So, while Mack may not necessarily excel as a pass catcher, the others factors in his favor more than make up for that concern imo.

With RBBC being prevalent in the NFL, RBs that have every factor in their favor are very rare. Once the top 5 or so are off the board, the rest all have at least one question or another. Marlon Mack actually seems to have very few questions surrounding him. Clear lead back in an excellent situation, great offensive line, great passing game to free up running lanes, and maybe most importantly, talented enough to have stat lines of

19/126/1

25/132/2

27/139/2

25/119/1

even after starting the season slowly due to injury. How concerned should we really be about his role in the passing game if he’s putting up numbers like above? Obviously he’s not going to do that every week, no RB will. But Mack proved that he doesn’t need a major role in the passing game to be a fantasy star. If we assume health, and a step forward in year three, there is a ton to love about Marlon Mack in 2019, even without a large role in the passing game. If his role in the passing game does take a step forward, lookout.

Marlon Mack is a great value right now, and being underrated by the fantasy community in general due to Frank Gore’s presence in year one, and an injury hampered start to year two. If your league mates aren’t as high on Mack as they should be, acquire him wherever possible and get an RB1 at RB2 prices.

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9 hours ago, FISH20 said:

How did he perform in the second half of last year when he was healthy?

Just like I said: erratic. In fact I checked and it was even more erratic than I thought.

No one denies his situation is ideal. But it was ideal last year too. Not trying to slam the guy, but I sure as hell wouldn't want him as my RB1. I think he's going to drive owners nuts with his streakiness.

 

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In my research I now came across Mack. Fantasy Pros currently have him at an ADP of 36 as RB16.

Thinking about it this may be a barghain. Here are a few reasons why I think so:

 

He is THE RB in Indi

Although they had many picks they didn‘t draft one. They had the most money and did not sign one (imagine what Lev Bell could do in that offense). Mack is their guy!

 

There is no competition

Mack is the only capable RB on the team. He may be no Saquon, but he is the best they have. He therefor will get the touches!

 

They have to run the ball to win games

Remember how bad they started last year? Remember who was missing during the first few games? Spoiler: it was Mack! After Mack returned they did not have do depend on Luck to do everything. And with that they went on a winning streak that had Frank Reich in the Coach of the year conversation.

 

The offense line is great, Luck has the most weapons he ever had, which all benefits Mack. They should be a top team and have the lead often.

 

Downside is the lack of receiving and that he probably wont upheld his 1 td/game ratio he had the last weeks of the season.

 

If you go for 2 WR early and you can get him in round 3, that would be really good.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, bomont said:

Just like I said: erratic. In fact I checked and it was even more erratic than I thought.

No one denies his situation is ideal. But it was ideal last year too. Not trying to slam the guy, but I sure as hell wouldn't want him as my RB1. I think he's going to drive owners nuts with his streakiness.

 

 

Marlon Macks last 11 games of 2018 (once he came back healthy) likely put him in the top 10 of RB's during that time. I'm sure someone that can look up stats better then me can tell us exactly but he put up 1000 yards total and 10 td's in those 11 games. In 5 of those games he had poor rushing yards but scored td's in two of them. Two were against a tough Jax run defense, and one was his first game back from injury. The common theme in those games was a lack of rushing attempts.

 

And who is taking this guy as their RB1? Maybe with a zero RB strategy but this guy is an upside RB2 all day.

 

Edit: Lets not forget his great game in the playoffs against Hou. Only 9 attempts against KC but 5.1 per

Edited by FISH20
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On 7/26/2019 at 10:00 AM, The G Man said:

If I had to choose between Mack & Henry, I'd definitely choose Henry. Higher ceiling and more durable IMO.

I’ll choose the guy non in a walking boot.

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Maybe this will turn out to be nothing, but Mack may have to move towards DND territory for me if there’s not total confidence in Luck’s health come end of August. 

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