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Marlon Mack 2019 Outlook

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With the injuries to Damien Williams and Derrick Henry as well as uncertainty surrounding other backs like Fournette and Devonta Freeman who are coming back from injuries, Mack looks that much more appealing as an rb2 in that 2nd-3rd round area.

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Was giving Marlon Mack a lot of thought recently, but with this news of Andrew Luck coming in with yet another nagging injury, I'm staying away from Mack.

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1 hour ago, CORTEz said:

Was giving Marlon Mack a lot of thought recently, but with this news of Andrew Luck coming in with yet another nagging injury, I'm staying away from Mack.

Forgot about Luck's latest injury but Jacoby Brissett is a decent backup if he has to play.  He had some big games a couple years ago when Luck was out.  Mack shouldn't suffer too much with him in there.

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1 hour ago, CORTEz said:

Was giving Marlon Mack a lot of thought recently, but with this news of Andrew Luck coming in with yet another nagging injury, I'm staying away from Mack.

Mack gets hurt as well. They're going to baby Luck all offseason. Luck is going to be ok.

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26 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Forgot about Luck's latest injury but Jacoby Brissett is a decent backup if he has to play.  He had some big games a couple years ago when Luck was out.  Mack shouldn't suffer too much with him in there.

 

Just now, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Mack gets hurt as well. They're going to baby Luck all offseason. Luck is going to be ok.

 

Brissett will have some good games for sure, but Mack is a definite downgrade in games that Luck misses. We'll see what happens over the next couple weeks with Luck.

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Posted (edited)

I think if Mack can stay healthy, there is a definite chance he can finish as an RB1 this year no matter who is playing QB.  The guy has been hurt since he got into the league and has been pretty impressive while being hurt. I realize they signed Spencer Ware but I don't see him taking away a lot of goal line chances from Mack.

The only problem I could see is Nyheim Hines taking passing down work from Marlon, but I don't believe it will be that much of a problem since the Colts are going to put up a lot of numbers and should spend the majority of the game in the winning column thus he will be running more. Although Hines is better in the pass game that doesn't mean his presence on the field is necessarily an upgrade and it won't make it easier on Brissett too if he were to come in, I see a lot of Theo Riddick in Hines. The Colts best bet would be to develop Mack in the pass game and have him go off to the races.  Late 3rd round is where I've been finding Mack and there aren't many safer options at that position in my opinion.

Edited by GodGivenTalent

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10 minutes ago, GodGivenTalent said:

I think if Mack can stay healthy, there is a definite chance he can finish as an RB1 this year no matter who is playing QB.  The guy has been hurt since he got into the league and has been pretty impressive while being hurt. I realize they signed Spencer Ware but I don't see him taking away a lot of goal line chances from Mack.

The only problem I could see is Nyheim Hines taking passing down work from Marlon, but I don't believe it will be that much of a problem since the Colts are going to put up a lot of numbers and should spend the majority of the game in the winning column thus he will be running more. Although Hines is better in the pass game that doesn't mean his presence on the field is necessarily an upgrade and it won't make it easier on Brissett too if he were to come in, I see a lot of Theo Riddick in Hines. The Colts best bet would be to develop Mack in the pass game and have him go off to the races.  Late 3rd round is where I've been finding Mack and there aren't many safer options at that position in my opinion.

With the injuries to other rb2 candidates that are being drafted in Mack's area, I expect Mack's ADP to gradually rise as we enter August.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is a mid-late 2nd round pick by the end of August.

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6 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

With the injuries to other rb2 candidates that are being drafted in Mack's area, I expect Mack's ADP to gradually rise as we enter August.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is a mid-late 2nd round pick by the end of August.

 

If that happens, he won't be on my team that's for sure.

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Posted (edited)

A little surprised to see how much love there still is for Mack even if Luck is out. The hype is seeming a little too strong for my taste.

I like Mack. I think he’s pretty talented. He was big for me last year. But he’s not world class. He’s not going to carry this offense. Brissett would be a massive downgrade for Mack’s fantasy outlook. One of the biggest things Mack has going for him is being on an elite offense. It’s not that without Luck. 

Edit: With that said, Luck is probably fine. But I can’t say I’m not factoring in some level of concern. And if his ADP really is rising into the late 2nd, I probably have to be out on a still relatively unproven RB that’s probably not going to catch a lot of passes and has missed a lot of time due to injury. 

Edited by gufomel
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21 minutes ago, gufomel said:

A little surprised to see how much love there still is for Mack even if Luck is out. The hype is seeming a little too strong for my taste.

I like Mack. I think he’s pretty talented. He was big for me last year. But he’s not world class. He’s not going to carry this offense. Brissett would be a massive downgrade for Mack’s fantasy outlook. One of the biggest things Mack has going for him is being on an elite offense. It’s not that without Luck. 

Edit: With that said, Luck is probably fine. But I can’t say I’m not factoring in some level of concern. And if his ADP really is rising into the late 2nd, I probably have to be out on a still relatively unproven RB that’s probably not going to catch a lot of passes and has missed a lot of time due to injury. 

 

I think Luck is just one of the pieces that helps Mack's value, but not the only one.  Colts have a top-ranked OL and they will be there opening lanes for Mack to run through whether Luck is behind center or Brissett.  The offense as a whole would be weaker without Luck, but you also have to think they aren't going to have Brissett passing 40 times a game either.  The offense will probably shift a bit more to the ground game to compensate.  

Also as others have said Brissett is one of the better backups in the league.  He's also much more of a threat with his legs than Luck, so defenses would have to respect that scrambling ability, which again is a plus for Mack.  The defense is also expected to improve so game scripts could still be positive if they aren't bleeding points.

I certainly prefer Mack with Luck as his QB, but I'm also not that scared about Brissett starting some games.  There are much worse situations around the league I'd worry about.

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I'm a little surprised too.

I believe Mack gets an instant downgrade if Luck ends up missing 4 or more games this year. The argument that IND has the best offensive line holds true. However, defenses aren't going to be playing Brissett the same way they would play Luck. There will be a little more "stacking of the box" against Brissett, and defenses are going to dare Brissett to throw more than they would with Luck.

I wouldn't downgrade him too much...but if we get closer to the season and Luck's still not healthy, I personally wouldn't grab Mack unless he fell to me somewhere past the 35th Pick.

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On 7/26/2019 at 9:08 AM, dropshadows said:

 

Yup. Indy has a top-rated Offensive Line.


My worst decisions on draft day are made because of my lack of knowledge on teams' OLs.

But this isn’t always easy to tell in the offseason. Last year at this time Indy was coming off a streak of seasons as a historically bad offensive line, then they simply became one of the best overnight. I know they drafted Nelson but he was still a rookie and that kind of improvement doesn’t usually happen. Even best case scenario, no one saw this. On the flip side the Lions had two expensive FAs, two first round draft picks and a 3rd rounder starting, and they were below average.

Same thing two years back with the Rams. They added Whitworth in the offseason who was seen as an upgrade but he was already 36, nobody thought they’d pave the way for Gurley to do what they did. It’s a tricky thing to sort out.

If I had to guess which o-line could show major improvement this year, I’d start with Denver. They brought in the Steelers long time O-Line coach, Mike Munchak, and with Fangio at the helm (and their talent) they should have a defense capable of keeping them in a running script. I also think the addition of Ja’Wuan James could prove to be as successful as the Rams signing of Whitworth, and Dalton Risner was my favorite interior lineman in this year’s class. Everyone’s fading Lindsay for Freeman, but I think they both could have big years.

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Posted (edited)

I'm seeing this guy going middish second to early third in mocks pretty consistently. I'm afraid he's going to be more expensive come draft time.

Edited by yahyahtrick

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Why not nothing to lose. And they were looking for something (anything) after losing Ware for at least about half the season.

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Seeing as I just drafted Mack last night, the Foreman signing has me ticked off. He’s really shown nothing as a pro so far because of rumored poor practice habits. I can just see him being force-fed the short-yardage & goal-line plays away from Mack

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14 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

Seeing as I just drafted Mack last night, the Foreman signing has me ticked off. He’s really shown nothing as a pro so far because of rumored poor practice habits. I can just see him being force-fed the short-yardage & goal-line plays away from Mack

That has absolutely zero impact on Mack imo. This is about Wilkins or whoever the two down back behind Mack is. Ware is dealing with injuries and Mack isn’t exactly injury free himself. Pure depth move. 

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Just now, Panthers8912 said:

That has absolutely zero impact on Mack imo. This is about Wilkins or whoever the two down back behind Mack is. Ware is dealing with injuries and Mack isn’t exactly injury free himself. Pure depth move. 

I certainly hope so.  I have high hopes for Mack this year after the way he took control of that backfield next year. Fingers crossed!

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10 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Hope the Achilles guy signing here drops Mack’s adp. Would love him in the 4th

With the 12th pick, I have been getting him almost every time at the 3/4 turn, ppr.

 

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I don't think Foreman is much of a threat here.  He couldn't hack it even as a backup with Houston, and their RB depth chart isn't exactly impressive.  

I read the other day that Ware is basically going to be released to sign with whatever other team he pleases once he's healed from this injury, so I think this is just the Colts re-filling Ware's spot on the depth chart.  And I doubt Foreman is coming in with any guarantees on making the roster.  If he was cut for work ethic issues and is coming off an Achilles tear, he's going to have to work pretty hard to go up the depth chart.

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10 hours ago, lvsaint429 said:

Seeing as I just drafted Mack last night, the Foreman signing has me ticked off. He’s really shown nothing as a pro so far because of rumored poor practice habits. I can just see him being force-fed the short-yardage & goal-line plays away from Mack

 

I don't have stats on hand to back me up at the moment, but I seem to remember Mack being quite good at goal-line situations, so I have to agree that (hopefully) this won't hurt him too much come real games.

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On 7/30/2019 at 4:52 PM, sjm76 said:

With the injuries to Damien Williams and Derrick Henry as well as uncertainty surrounding other backs like Fournette and Devonta Freeman who are coming back from injuries, Mack looks that much more appealing as an rb2 in that 2nd-3rd round area.

 

After doing a ton of mocks, this area is really stressful. I just went Mack over Fournette. But I might go Devonta over Mack.

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 Love the price.   Top 5 offense that will score in bunches- Mack only needs a slight majority of carries as well as GL and a few targets to threaten top 15.  

You don’t have the 3 down upside of a LF...nor the downside of sub 4 ypc and needing 20+ carries and a GL plunge for a decent day.       

 

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I forgot to mention that they also signed him to get info from the Texans, a division rival.

 

Anyone else concerned that luck might not be ready to start the season though? He’s a big part of why I love Mack 

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