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Didn't see a thread so allow me to get it cracking... 

 

Delanie is back. 

 

Rookie AJ Brown was drafted. 

 

Adam Humphries brought in during free agency. 

 

Rishard Matthews is gone (he was weird and didn't last very long last year anyway though). 

 

Marcus Mariota still sucks. But he 100% absolutely has to increase on his 11 TD passes from 2018. 

 

Lot of extra bodies are gonna be trying to catch passes this year, but at the same time if titans actually use D Henry correctly all year and move the chains they can create more first downs thus creating more plays thus creating more red zone opportunities. 

 

Y'all think too many mouths to feed or you ready for a natural progression in the offense coupled with the " year 3 WR breakout" can make Corey D a strong value at current ADP? 

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Marioata and Corey had zero chemistry the last 2 seasons. .  every game i watched the 2 of them were rarely on the same page when it came to where the pass was and where the wr was relative to the pass and i dont know if that was a function of coaching or QB play.

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On 5/30/2019 at 2:02 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Y'all think too many mouths to feed or you ready for a natural progression in the offense coupled with the " year 3 WR breakout" can make Corey D a strong value at current ADP? 

love the talent, and i am absolutely positive corey davis will break out. thing is, that might not happen until either 1) the titans get a new QB, or 2) he is traded once the rookie contract expires. with that in mind, i see corey davis as a keep in dynasty, and even a buy-low in dynasty.

in redraft, regarding ADP, corey davis is sandwiched between emmanuel sanders and adrian peterson in late Round 9. yes, between an elderly WR recovering from an achilles tear and an elderly RB who will have to split touches with a sophomore.

far too much talent in tennessee at WR, far too little talent at QB: i'm avoiding corey davis in redraft entirely. at his ADP, i'm choosing mecole hardman, golden tate, james washington, courtland sutton, all over corey davis. his day will come, but not in 2019.

marcusnoo.0.gif

 

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Devil's advocate:   What I see is last year's WR27 going outside the top 40 WR's in PPR drafts, some value there.  They have more mouths now, but that could be good or bad- he was playing with JAG's all around last year and I can't imagine he wasn't the entire focus of game planning in the first half of the season.     He could see his target share dip of course, or this could be a case of new players helping open things up a bit.    I do love the Tannehill signing.   Before this, you had no chance of whatever backup QB crap they had producing anything on offense.   Tannehill is probably one of the better backups in the league, so when Mariota's elbow struggles again, you're not sweating Yo Gabba Gabbert anymore.

One thing I don't like:  He didn't produce much at all once Henry started feasting.  Some of those were Gabbert games, but not all.   That late season offense has to be what the Titans want to do week in and week out.  If Davis isn't getting runoff from that, it's gonna be a long year.  

So, i do see red flags, and i wouldn't aggressively argue in his favor, but I think there's at least some potential he outperforms that ADP.   If he's your WR4 at that price, its not as painful as if you took him last year in the 5th or 6th hoping he was that breakout player that never materialized 

 

 

 

 

 

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Solid sleeper IMO.  I'll probably look at him to fill one of my early bench WR spots.

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This dude had like a 30% target share last year and was barely a top 36 wr. They Bring in 2 new wrs and get walker back (probably not his “old” self but still a proven TE), why would we expect him to do better? Basically counting on Davis to take a giant step forward to hit

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8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

This dude had like a 30% target share last year and was barely a top 36 wr. 

He was #25 in targets and yards; he underperformed points-wise because he had only 4 TDs on 90 yards, which is very low by WR standards.

However, that's just how terrible the TEN offense was. Except for Henry, there were few highlights in their offense, and I won't expect that to change suddenly; it seems that's just who Mariota is as a QB.

I expect some improvement for Davis, and 1000 yard should be possible, but he'll do well to get 6 TD.

One more "fun" fact (for sufficiently low values of fun): CD had 9 targets inside the 10, for a grand total of 2 rec and 1 TD.

That's... Not good.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

This dude had like a 30% target share last year and was barely a top 36 wr. They Bring in 2 new wrs and get walker back (probably not his “old” self but still a proven TE), why would we expect him to do better? Basically counting on Davis to take a giant step forward to hit

 

27th overall in PPR points is not barely in the top 36.    He doesn't have to do any better than that to bring value because he's now drafted outside the top 40 WR's.    

This is another case of recency disgust I think.  That's not unfair- we've all done that with players.   After Davis's 2017 playoffs, he was the next big thing.   Then he farted a bit, but that doesn't mean he's completely useless.   If you get a WR3 for a WR4 price, is that not a decent move to make?  He might even wind up on your bench as a great fill in player.   He's also capable of putting up big weeks- sometimes you can trade those guys after they get hot.      

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Warning: long post coming from a Corey Davis fan boy. 

 

I loved this kid coming out. He checked every box except the level of competition one. He had a ridiculously early breakout age and a crazy dominator score. He was big, strong, fast, could make contested catches and run after the catch. Ran great routes. Had his share of concentration drops but didn’t seem to be a large issue. Got elite draft capital when the Titans took him #5 and paired him with Mariota coming off a 3500 yard season with 26 tds to 9 picks in his second year. What wasn’t to like? He was going to be a star.

 

Then the hammy happened. He missed all preseason, came back week 1, looked great, then hurt it again week 2. Missed several weeks then came back, made some highlight catches but never was full strength and had no timing with his qb. He did flash though. He flashed his talent and he commanded a decent target share. I remember it was tops on the team in the games he played. Mariota looked awful but I’ll take some blame off him. He was throwing to Walker, fine te over the middle, a banged up rookie who barely practiced in Davis, R. Mathews who couldn’t even get on the field for the Jets the following year, Decker who couldn’t find a team the next year, and Taywan Taylor an unpolished rookie. That’s a pretty awful group to work with.

 

Then last year was just a cluster of awful circumstances broken down into 3 groups: qb play, volume, and elite CBs faced. His Qb play was as bad as it gets. The Titans were forced to allow Blaine Gabbert who as we all know is terrible to throw over 100 passes for them. And Mariota hurt his throwing elbow week 1 and reported something between no feeling in his hand and numbness in the hand most of the rest of the year. Completely guessing here, how many of Davis’ 112 targets actually came from a healthy Mariota? 25%? 50%?  That’s a pretty huge circumstance.

 

Now you look at the passing volume of the Titans offense. Saddled with terrible qb play but with a decent defense, a good OL, and a favorable schedule the Titans understandably shied away from throwing the ball. It used to make me mad that they did that. But I get it. If you need to beat the Jags on the road and you’re starting Blaine Gabbert are you going to have him challenge Jalen Ramsey and that Jags D line or run the ball and see if Bortles will beat himself for you? Prob the latter. The Titans played so many mediocre to garbage qbs/offenses that they were more than content to hide their own gimpy/terrible qb play and grind it out. Buffalo, the Giants game in the slop, the Jags x2, Skins with Josh Johnson, even the home Houston game they hid Gabbert and grinded it out.  That’s 6 games where passing was an afterthought and doesn’t even include the game vs the Jets 29th ranked offense because they somehow fell behind big in that one. The Titans 10 OOD games were against these offensive ranks: 3, 12, 13, 16, 17, 22, 28, 29, 30, 31. Average of 20.1. And in division the Colts games and home Houston game were all Gabbert games and Jags were 27th. This year they face: 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18, 23, 30. Average is 11. Should be a lot more points and possession in Titans games this year. The Titans only threw the ball 437 times last year. With improved qb play and more scoring on tap that HAS to go up. About 500 seems the norm the past few years and I’d put them a little higher than that given their investments in the passing game. I’m hoping for 510-520 attempts. Still bottom part of the league here but adds 70-80 more targets for the offense.

 

On to the CBs Davis faced last year. We know he gets Ramsey in division, that’s not changing this year. OOD last year Davis faced Byron Jones, Gilmore, Tre White, Xavien Howard, Smith/Humphrey, Hayward, Norman, Jenkins. That’s 8/10 games with very good-elite corners. Not all those guys shadow all game long but I think most do. And I think Davis can beat that kind of coverage but it’s no question it makes it harder and with gimpy Mariota/Gabbert throwing the ball its gotta be damn near impossible to do it consistently. This year he gets Hayward and White again but swaps out the others for the top cover guys of: Cleveland, Kc, Oakland, Denver, Atl, NO, Car, TB. That is much much MUCH more friendly. 

 

Btw Davis averaged 3.1 yards of separation according to NextGen stats even against that shadow coverage with no one around him to take any attention off him. That’s pretty good. Just glancing at the list it looks like it’s the top mark amongst #1 outside wrs. Also let me rant for a second about this market share thing. Davis had 26% of the Titans targets. I see on Twitter a lot of OMGGG Davis has this much market share but only finished 27th in points lmao he sucksssss. Market share in this context requires you to take into account how large the market is. In this case it’s 437 total passing attempts which is really small. So if you want to compare his end of year point totals you should be looking at his 112 targets which was tied for 19th and is easily explained away by his awful qb play. His market share being high (tied for 7th I think) and his air yards being high (tied for 6th I think) are VERY GOOD things. It means he’s being treated like an alpha #1 wr just in a deflated, terrible market. Both of which can change. It’s why I’m not terribly concerned about the return of Walker or the addition of Humphrey/Brown. Walker is 35 coming off a season ending injury, Humphrey is fine as a slot guy and Brown is a rookie. A rookie that I like and got in my dynasty league. But he went 49th overall while Davis went 5th. The Titans want Davis to be and think that Davis is their alpha dog wr. He’s going to get fed.

 

Whew. Had to get all that out there. TLDR version: I love Corey Davis, draft Corey Davis last year was his absolute rock bottom floor, I love Corey Davis. That’s all.

  

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This guy is a complete scrub. Won’t be on any of my teams. 

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15 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

This guy is a complete scrub. Won’t be on any of my teams. 

Ah a well supported argument! Do you have a newsletter I could subscribe to?

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2 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Ah a well supported argument! Do you have a newsletter I could subscribe to?

lol that was a good laugh. No I really I don't honestly. I like corey Davis. Hate Mariota. he needs a real qb.

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39 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

lol that was a good laugh. No I really I don't honestly. I like corey Davis. Hate Mariota. he needs a real qb.

Haha. His play/health concerns me no doubt. Nevertheless I feel good that the qb play has to be better than last year. 

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6 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Nevertheless I feel good that the qb play has to be better than last year. 

I'm always wary of those statements, so let's exmine that a bit (although maybe I should create a Mariota thread).

Mariota has so far made a career out of being average; his only decent season was 2016 when he had 3400 yd passing plus 350 rushing; and 26 + 2 TD (vs 9 INT and 9 fumbles). That was his best season, and the past 2 seasons he was worse. If anything his numbers have been trending downward since he entered the NFL.
image.png.b854fc5ca5072d38bfd7f3bb3253bbdd.png

Of course the story is complicated; he never had a decent coach, he never had a great O-line, he hasn't had consistently great players so far (yes yes Henry but he wasn't consistent, Walker was injured, etc), and he was injured himself last season. All that could be better next season, but I honestly don't expect him to suddenly throw for 3500+ yards.

One note though, and this might help; from 2015-2017 Mariota consistently threw 30 attempts per game; last season that was a quarter less. Clearly the coaches limited him, and that should mean more volume for Corey, which sounds like a good thing. With a quarter more targets, Corey could get 80 rec for 1100/5 TD, which sort of matches his ADP.

24    5.09    Allen Robinson    WR    CHI    56.5    5.6    4.01    7.01    568    
25    5.10    Marvin Jones    WR    DET    58.3    5.7    4.03    8.02    588    
26    6.05    Corey Davis    WR    TEN    64.6    5.4    3.12    7.10    572    
27    6.07    Golden Tate    WR    PHI    67.0    6.1    4.10    8.02    580    
28    6.08    Will Fuller    WR    HOU    67.6    6.5    4.02    8.08    503    

 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm always wary of those statements, so let's exmine that a bit (although maybe I should create a Mariota thread).

Mariota has so far made a career out of being average; his only decent season was 2016 when he had 3400 yd passing plus 350 rushing; and 26 + 2 TD (vs 9 INT and 9 fumbles). That was his best season, and the past 2 seasons he was worse. If anything his numbers have been trending downward since he entered the NFL.
image.png.b854fc5ca5072d38bfd7f3bb3253bbdd.png

Of course the story is complicated; he never had a decent coach, he never had a great O-line, he hasn't had consistently great players so far (yes yes Henry but he wasn't consistent, Walker was injured, etc), and he was injured himself last season. All that could be better next season, but I honestly don't expect him to suddenly throw for 3500+ yards.

One note though, and this might help; from 2015-2017 Mariota consistently threw 30 attempts per game; last season that was a quarter less. Clearly the coaches limited him, and that should mean more volume for Corey, which sounds like a good thing. With a quarter more targets, Corey could get 80 rec for 1100/5 TD, which sort of matches his ADP.

24    5.09    Allen Robinson    WR    CHI    56.5    5.6    4.01    7.01    568    
25    5.10    Marvin Jones    WR    DET    58.3    5.7    4.03    8.02    588    
26    6.05    Corey Davis    WR    TEN    64.6    5.4    3.12    7.10    572    
27    6.07    Golden Tate    WR    PHI    67.0    6.1    4.10    8.02    580    
28    6.08    Will Fuller    WR    HOU    67.6    6.5    4.02    8.08    503    

 

Good post. Maybe this is oversimplifying it but my assumption is that healthy Mariota > Tannehill >>> unhealthy Mariota >>>>>>Gabbert. Coaching, who knows what we’ll get from this latest new OC but the exotic smashmouth stuff from 2-3 years ago was atrocious. And LaFleur never really had a chance because as you say they were severely limited by Mariota’s injury and Gabbert’s birth.

 

Where do you see that ADP? I’m seeing him at Wr43 110 overall in ppr leagues on FF Calc and at 91 in best ball drafts on Draft.

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14 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Good post. Maybe this is oversimplifying it but my assumption is that healthy Mariota > Tannehill >>> unhealthy Mariota >>>>>>Gabbert. Coaching, who knows what we’ll get from this latest new OC but the exotic smashmouth stuff from 2-3 years ago was atrocious. And LaFleur never really had a chance because as you say they were severely limited by Mariota’s injury and Gabbert’s birth.

 

Where do you see that ADP? I’m seeing him at Wr43 110 overall in ppr leagues on FF Calc and at 91 in best ball drafts on Draft.

That's interesting?

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/standard/12-team/wide-receiver/2018

image.png.32a401c48dff969b1ceeb4b1574a3002.png

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4 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Looks like that’s from last year. I was referring to what they’re showing so far for this year. 

I am a moron. Yes, thank you :)

(I was doing some research and had that tab open, and forgot it was last year's ADP. That also means I probably have to redo some other stuff...)

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6 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I am a moron. Yes, thank you :)

(I was doing some research and had that tab open, and forgot it was last year's ADP. That also means I probably have to redo some other stuff...)

Hah I’ve been there. You gave me quite a scare I really hope his ADP stays much lower than that.

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Good thing to point out though on that goof- ADP was 26 last year, finish was 27.......and he's loathed by folks.       If that was your biggest miss last year, you must've done very well overall.    

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Good thing to point out though on that goof- ADP was 26 last year, finish was 27.......and he's loathed by folks.       If that was your biggest miss last year, you must've done very well overall.    

Agreed it wasn’t the disaster people made it out to be. Although he was 38th in points per game (more like 32-34 depending how many guys you want to exclude for playing just a few games). He got drafted as a high end wr3 and turned in a low end wr3 season amidst a myriad of awful circumstances. And staying healthy for 16 games shouldn’t be completely taken for granted either given how his rookie season went. 

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If Tannehill wins the starting job, I will be bumping this guy up and he becomes one of the best sleeper WR's.  If it's still Mariota, I may avoid completely.  Had him last year.  It was painful.  Hurt you way more often than helped.

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