tonycpsu

2019 June Closer Thread

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18 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Diaz BS - 2 run HR to Franco

Been awful from what he was last year.

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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

He has pitched in 35 games w/26 IP. So he’s often being used as a LOOGY, and not as an elite RP. He has an ERA over 4 (5.22 FIP) just as he did last season. 

So I guess I’d ask what you like about him that you think he should leapfrog Gant and Martinez.  Because he used to get saves in 2015 & 2016?

Ummm, Yes! That is correct.  

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Posted (edited)

I'm amazed that people are still reaching all over the place for random numbers to try to excuse Iglesias' garbage performances and deflect it over to David Bell as a garbage manager instead. The Cincinnati Reds are trash, yet they somehow have the 5th best run differential in the league because Bell has been able to manage their pitching staff such that they have given up the fewest runs in the league and 2nd fewest in all of baseball. Yet fantasy baseballers will still trash him as a manager because things aren't working out with their fantasy closer on their fake baseball team. I mean, it's ok to be frustrated if you drafted Iglesias. But when your own frustration is forcing you to leap to the conclusion that it's not all Iglesias' fault because David Bell is somehow mismanaging the situation in real life is a bit much.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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Posted (edited)

The other facet not really talked about w/ the ridiculous HR #’s, is the effect on SP’s... wins. 

The SP’s have seen huge K spikes, but a direct correlation in ERA spike given all the long balls... but what goes unnoticed is the propensity for late inning HR’s vs. Closers, has constantly taken away dub-ya’s from the starters. Nola threw and absolute gem, and Wheeler did today as well... yet a couple dingers that are the new norm in the 8’th/9’th and nobody will remember. We will all just talk about another Diaz meltdown, what’s wrong w/ Neris.?

The Juiced balls are affecting everything and it’s kinda getting ridiculous IMO.

Edited by LarryChip10

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I'm amazed that people are still reaching all over the place for random numbers to try to excuse Iglesias' garbage performances and deflect it over to David Bell as a garbage manager instead. The Cincinnati Reds are trash, yet they somehow have the 5th best run differential in the league because Bell has been able to manage their pitching staff such that they have given up the fewest runs in the league and 2nd fewest in all of baseball. Yet fantasy baseballers will still trash him as a manager because things aren't working out with their fantasy closer on their fake baseball team. I mean, it's ok to be frustrated if you drafted Iglesias. But when your own frustration is forcing you to leap to the conclusion that it's not all Iglesias' fault because David Bell is somehow mismanaging the situation in real life is a bit much.

 

Can't give Bell credit for success but ignore the failure, IMO.

 

As an analogy, did the Braves keep Acuña in the 4 hole and just blame him for poor performance? No they moved him to leadoff to do what's right for the player and the team to succeed.

 

The way he is using Iglesias isn't working. Blame whoever you want. It's not working, it's black and white:

 

1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

I was curious to see exactly how much Iglesias' performance dropped based on usage and... wow (2019 splits):

image.png.adc9e843936ee353be5a88d7c8c86745.png

image.png.8d4ff38efe02e9d6342a2851404a5f51.png

The career splits aren't quite as stark, but still notable:

image.png.175a72bf90c72a37ae5198521c6748c0.png

image.png.203cf0c4eb8b1cdb3ad46babcc731087.png

Some relievers can maintain most or all of their performance in a "fireman" role.  Iglesias is not one of them.  David Bell seems to be the only person on the planet who doesn't understand this.

 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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17 minutes ago, LarryChip10 said:

The other facet not really talked about w/ the ridiculous HR #’s, is the effect on SP’s... wins. 

The SP’s have seen huge K spikes, but a direct correlation in ERA spike given all the long balls... but what goes unnoticed is the propensity for late inning HR’s vs. Closers, has constantly taken away dub-ya’s from the starters. Nola threw and absolute gem, and Wheeler did today as well... yet a couple dingers that are the new norm in the 8’th/9’th and nobody will remember. We will all just talk about another Diaz meltdown, what’s wrong w/ Neris.?

The Juiced balls are affecting everything and it’s kinda getting ridiculous IMO.

 

I 100% get the frustration but at the same time it is a level playing field for everyone.

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Interesting debate.  

Numbers are stark,  almost crazily so. Why is it he can get outs in sv situations but can't in others?  Seems a weird mental thing.  

 

Would using him only in traditional sv situations hamper the success the rest of the pen has had?  Team pitching numbers are also starkly successful.  

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8 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Can't give Bell credit for success but ignore the failure, IMO. 

 

Right.  Leaning on aggregate metrics that include other relievers isn't responsive to the question of whether a particular reliever is being used in the correct role.  A sample of ~200 career innings pitching in the 8th or 9th innings isn't "random" numbers -- it's a statistically meaningful sample of how he's done in those innings, certainly large enough to shake out any bias.

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I mean, Sweet Child O’ Mine is a great song, but coming out to an 80s rock ballad? 

 

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1 minute ago, WahooManiac said:

Numbers are stark,  almost crazily so. Why is it he can get outs in sv situations but can't in others?  Seems a weird mental thing.   

 

Here's some light reading material:

Bill James: Do closers lose intensity in non-save situations?  (TL;DR: Yes, at least they did in 2005.)

Performance Variation among Major League Baseball Closers:Field Evidence of Situational Pressure Effects (PDF)

Quote

Despite immense analytical advances in Major League Baseball (MLB), some traditional methods of player labor allocation continue to be used. Closers, a subset of pitchers, are primarily substituted into particular game states that qualify as save situations (SS), and conventional wisdom suggests that they enjoy motivational benefits that lead to improved performance in these states. Thisstudy investigates the persistence of theperformance discrepancy after the inclusion of key variables, including controls for pitcher and hitter skill levels, and examines other potential causes. Analysis of a data set of more than 26,000 plate appearances supports a significant and positive effect of the SS state on closerperformance. The results further suggest a significant and positive effect of the SS state when combined with high-pressure at-bats that considerably impact the game’s outcome. The study also contributes a “clutchness” ranking system that quantifies the heterogeneous effects of situational pressure on theperformance levels of individual closers.

 

I'm sure there are other studies out there that find otherwise, but at the very least, we see enough evidence that Iglesias (a) doesn't like pitching in non-save situations and (b) isn't as good as he is in save situations.

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Kimbrel on for his first save attempt of 2019.

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

I mean, Sweet Child O’ Mine is a great song, but coming out to an 80s rock ballad? 

 

 

at least they could've done Welcome to the Jungle.

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26 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I'm amazed that people are still reaching all over the place for random numbers to try to excuse Iglesias' garbage performances and deflect it over to David Bell as a garbage manager instead. The Cincinnati Reds are trash, yet they somehow have the 5th best run differential in the league because Bell has been able to manage their pitching staff such that they have given up the fewest runs in the league and 2nd fewest in all of baseball. Yet fantasy baseballers will still trash him as a manager because things aren't working out with their fantasy closer on their fake baseball team. I mean, it's ok to be frustrated if you drafted Iglesias. But when your own frustration is forcing you to leap to the conclusion that it's not all Iglesias' fault because David Bell is somehow mismanaging the situation in real life is a bit much.

 

I brought this up the other day, but its only gotten worse since then. Reds Pythagorean is now 10 games over .500, but here they are, chasing the end of June at 6 under. It takes a special lack of talent to manage your team out of that many wins in just 1/2 a season.

You have the supposed best bullpen in the bigs, but continually forcefeed its most important component into situations that he isn't comfortable with or ones that simply don't make sense to put him into. In turn, he's failing at it. Of course there's blame to be lied at Iglesias feet, but isn't it the manager's job to put players in the best place for them, and the team, to succeed?  When neither the team or the player is seeing success, and the manager stubbornly keeps going to the same dry well, who is really left to blame? 

 

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4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I mean, Sweet Child O’ Mine is a great song, but coming out to an 80s rock ballad? 

 

 

Thought the same thing, awful choice. 

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2 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Thought the same thing, awful choice. 

It does remind me of childhood memories. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

It does remind me of childhood memories. 

 

giphy_6_.gif?cb=1481579930

 

Kimbrel in trouble, 2 men on, 2 out.

 

edit, got the save!

Edited by Members_Only_76
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Kimbrel is back! 1st game of the season....save against the top of the Braves lineup

 

👏

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Kimbrel converts, but looked like he has some rust to shake off.  Benefited by an excellent defensive play by Rizzo (where he forgot to cover) and a ball called strike three on McCann.

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16 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Surprised there isn't more outrage about Diaz in here lol

Well, it's the Mets... Calloway is still there somehow, it's almost not surprising to watch. now I own him, and just watched him single handedly undo my last week of good pitching in Roto. I'm disgusted, but by no means surprised. (FWIW, just saw the highlights and Diaz piping elevated fastballs w/ two strikes, right down the heart... inexcusable and he knows better!!!) Era pushing 5, WHIP pushing 1.4     Is this a MUTS microcosm, or is Diaz just one of those guys who can't hang in the NY setting? IDK, maybe a mets fan has more insight...?

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Kimbrel converts, but looked like he has some rust to shake off.  Benefited by an excellent defensive play by Rizzo (where he forgot to cover) and a ball called strike three on McCann.

The velocity was up there 97-98 which was a very encouraging sign from the reports of his rehab games 93-95

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29 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

at least they could've done Welcome to the Jungle.

Given his recent postseason, November Rain would have been apropos.

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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Given his recent postseason, November Rain would have been apropos.

 

tenor.gif

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Posting Iglesias’ numbers and concluding that “ maybe I shouldn’t have drafted him in fantasy baseball” would be fine. Jumping from those numbers to the conclusion that David Bell is a bad manger is obviously absurd given the facts I posted earlier regarding run prevention and the Reds’ otherwise garbage team. That’s all I’m saying.

Bell is paid to manage the team and Iglesias is paid to get guys out. That’s it, simple really. Much simpler than some convoluted cherry picking of Iglesias’ stats. 

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