Schmakky141

8 team 0.5ppr league strategy. WHIR

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Hey guys.

Whats everyones thoughts? Im drafting at 8th in our 8 team league in my real draft... have a strategy planned that im thinking about. Its Only early days.... but what are your thoughts on taking Kelce at 2.1 (9th overall).... plan is to get the league to reach on Kittle and Ertz between my 2nd round (9th overall) and 3/4 round picks (24/25th overall) essentially causing more players to drop to my pick.... before people say “who takes a TE that early, the last few seasons i have guaged that our league dynamic understands the worth of a set and forget TE that can post RB or top teir WR numbers consistently. They demand high trade value if need be aswell...

 like i said, early days.... and this is why we mock and do preseason forums i guess, but if me taking Kelce at 2.1 could cause a domino effect on Ertz and Kittle before my 3/4 picks at the loop, effectively 2 guys that “shouldn’t” of been available - now are...... and i got Kelce. Not to mention to depth if WRs in those rounds, and guys like Fournette, Dwilliams, MIngram etc all RBs going in those 3/4 rounds also...

Cheers guys. Really appreciate everyones opinions...

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So by grabbing Kelce at pick #9 (6 picks early) you think this will give you the advantage of a slightly better WR at your pick 3/4 (2 picks early)?

Let me rephrase that again: you want to pick a guy 6 picks early in the second round to gain 2 picks in the 4th?

That doesn't sound like good math. I think there are defendable reasons to pick Kelce early, but that ain't it.
Good luck though!

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Thanks for your response mate, even if it is a little condescending...... i may of not got my idea across properly.

 

The other 7 coaches all mock and pre plan. They all understand the value of a elite TE.

the main idea behind this strategy is to cause a stir...... i only need for 2 or 3 of the 7 coaches to panic and steer away from preseason plans for it to have some advantage for me.

None of the guys in my league will be planning on a TE going in the top 10, and i know “atleast” 2 guys that will want to follow trend and take Ertz and/or Kittle as soon as they can to avoid the TE headache later on the board......

 

i have mocked with this approach and without, and the WR/RBs left when i do it and Ertz and kittle have followed, are names like Dalvin cook, Juju, Chubb, Evans.

all these names that arent there when i dont do the Kelce at 2 move... and im left with Amari, Fournette, etc...

 

 

basically its -

2,Kelce 3,Juju 4,cook/chubb

Or

2, Hopkins/Mixon, 3 Fournette, 4, Amari

(and take a bust TE later in draft)

 

 

 

i hope that makes sense

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Posted (edited)

Yeah you are fine to take Kelce at 8. Its an 8 team league so there will be plenty of talent on the wire at WR/RB. Just grab the best TE if you want him.

Edited by bhawks489

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1 hour ago, Schmakky141 said:

Thanks for your response mate, even if it is a little condescending...... i may of not got my idea across properly.

Yeah, fair enough, sorry if it came across that way. 
I stand by by thinking though. I think I understand what you're trying to do, but I think the benefit doesn't outweigh the cost.

Still, as said (and as bhawks said) I don't think grabbing Kelce early is necessarily bad. Just remember that if you don't, Ertz may still be there at the 3/4 turn.
 

I'm also not sure what you base your projection on? I use https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php

1 hour ago, Schmakky141 said:

basically its -

2,Kelce 3,Juju 4,cook/chubb

Or

2, Hopkins/Mixon, 3 Fournette, 4, Amari

(and take a bust TE later in draft)

 

Player.....ADP.... Pick
Kelce.......16......9 (2.1)
Juju.........19......24 (3.8)
Cook........21.....25 (4.1)
or Chubb..17.....25 (4.1)

Hopkins....6......9 (2.1)
Mixon.......15......9 (2.1)
Fournette..36......24 (3.8)
Amari.......32.....25 (4.1)

Of course early ADPs are notoriously inconsistent. Still, think about it.

 

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29 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah, fair enough, sorry if it came across that way. 
I stand by by thinking though. I think I understand what you're trying to do, but I think the benefit doesn't outweigh the cost.

Still, as said (and as bhawks said) I don't think grabbing Kelce early is necessarily bad. Just remember that if you don't, Ertz may still be there at the 3/4 turn.
 

I'm also not sure what you base your projection on? I use https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php

 

Player.....ADP.... Pick
Kelce.......16......9 (2.1)
Juju.........19......24 (3.8)
Cook........21.....25 (4.1)
or Chubb..17.....25 (4.1)

Hopkins....6......9 (2.1)
Mixon.......15......9 (2.1)
Fournette..36......24 (3.8)
Amari.......32.....25 (4.1)

Of course early ADPs are notoriously inconsistent. Still, think about it.

 

Thanks mate. Easily mistaken without tone or sarcasm over written formats I guess. my bad.

 

as for the ADPs you've listed, I use the same... but as for Hopkins falling, and some of those other varying ADPs that might seem puzzling to my previous message.... I KNOWWWW my league will be RB heavy in the first 2 rounds and that TE is seen as a pivotal area. it has been crucial in our playoffs the last 4 season and everyone is aware of it.

TE, is easily the shallowest position to fill after those 3 mentioned names and im sure you are aware of that, granted OJ Howard, Engram, Henry etc could perform awesomely... but after the big 3, there isn't much left and its somewhat a headache. so I know the lads in my league will panic.

 

like I said, just spit balling, passing on Hopkins, Adams, Mixon etc. at my 9th pick will be very hard to do. but to gain Kelce in a positional value area where he posts basically RB numbers when most of the league will be running the wire a lot of the weeks, is also very tempting..... given it causes panic and ruins everyones draft planning..

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5 minutes ago, Schmakky141 said:

given it causes panic and ruins everyones draft planning

That depends of course on how smart and flexible your league mates are; just don't shoot yourself in the foot.

It's like that guy opening with 1. h4 in a chess game: "he'll never expect that!" No indeed, I didn't, but I'm not exactly bothered either, so now you have a slightly worse position and you wasted a move.

Or to stay in Football terms: that smart coach who called for a pass on the 1-yard line when he had the best RB in the league. Indeed, they didn't expect that... But they were ready nonetheless.

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Target Kelce he's the leagues best TE who plays the weakest spot on the field. There are plenty of RB's & WR's to get later on. 

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