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Adrian Sampson 2019 Outlook

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I went to look at this kid cuz he's at the top of the wire with respect to recent stats.  I did a deep dive into his minor league numbers and they aren't impressive.  IIRC he has a career K/9 of like 6.0.   He's had good walk rates, but hard pass imo.  Especially with this weeks match ups.

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27 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

I went to look at this kid cuz he's at the top of the wire with respect to recent stats.  I did a deep dive into his minor league numbers and they aren't impressive.  IIRC he has a career K/9 of like 6.0.   He's had good walk rates, but hard pass imo.  Especially with this weeks match ups. 

 

I wouldn't dismiss a player because their minor leagues numbers aren't great, lots of guys overachieve when they get called up to majors. He isn't a must own guy but if you own him, you might as well keep him for the rest of June and see how things shake out.

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Sampson is not just a flash in the pan whipping poor teams.....from what I have seen...the guy is doing something that its a shame more pitchers dont learn to do by the time they are 27 years old....he is actually starting to learn how to pitch and not just throw and hope they don't hit it.......do I think he is a cae in the making...shoot no....do I think he will fall to total garbage and no one will remember him in a few weeks.....no sir to that one also.....what I think we have here is a guy that has learn to get the most out of what he has to use......far too many young pitchers never learn this never learn how to pitch...they come up through high school and college and have a decent enough fast ball or curve to get hitters at weaker levels out...they never learn how to really pitch though...they then reach the upper minors or the show and cant get people out because they have no clue what they are doing....they keep throwing a fastball that doesnt blow by advanced hitters and is now considered mediocre instead of above average like in high school or college...or even lower minors......Sampson is smart enough that he is learning how to get hitters in the majors out even though he doesnt have blazing heat......I still to this day find it so funny that so many young fans with all their modern stats think still a pitcher is nothing if he cant throw it 98mph.....fact is in my almsot 30 years of playing fantasy baseball that started before the internet was made available to the public.....I have seen tons of successful pitchers that never had over powering fastballs but knew how to really pitch and get the most out of what they have to pitch with...that is what I am starting to see when I watch Sampson Pitch.....he seems like a guy that is starting to figure out to think and stay a step ahead of the hitter keep the hitter guessing.....instead of just throwing a fastball in a fastball count he isn't afraid to come with an off speed pitch....he trust what he has and is starting to look like a pitcher that isnt afraid to throw any pitch he has at any time in any count...he also is hitting his spots....and that is credit to the fact his control has been dang good.....he isnt just not walking batters.....he is hitting his spots with all his pitches...and what that means is he is making hitters more times than not swing at a pitchers pitch.....and anytime you have a guy that can hit his spots and make hitters even major league hitters swing at his pitch instead of the pitch the hitter is wanting or where he is wanting.....that pitcher is going to succeed more than he looses even if he throws 65 mph like Jamie Moyer once did.....Just saying....what I think we have here is a guy kinda like Trevor Williams of Pittsburgh......who also was a guy no one was all that hyped about everyone said he just didnt have the stuff to be more than a back end innings eater...and yet until he got injured this year he had enjoyed a year and a half of pretty dang good success with the mediocre fastball because he learned how to pitch........I will take a guy that can hit his spots and knows how to pitch all day everyday over a kid who throws 98mph but has no idea what the hell he is doing or where the pitch is going and cant repeat it 2 times in a row if he wants as far as location....because the key isnt always can I get by throwing a fastball to a fastball hitter in a fastball count....the key is can I throw my fastball to the spot I want it at where this fastball hitter has less chance to drill it because he likes them on the other side of the plate or he likes them up or down in the zone......its all about can you hit your spots and Sampson the last several starts is not only hitting his spots with that fastball and getting ahead of hitters throwing strikes but he is pitching to contact as well...but he is able to hit his spots so even when a hitter guesses right...and hits the ball...more times than not he is only getting weak contact from hitting a pitch just outside of where he could drill it or just outside the strike zone....I think Sampson could very well turn into this years Trevor Williams type story.....that guy surprised a lot of people last year...and is a guy who I  picked up last year and he helped me stay in contention the rest of the season and filled a injury hole in my 18 team dynasty league for me....in a deep league like mine...if you can get a guy that offers any upside potential at all off waive wire you better jump and we have no limit to roster moves.....so am I taking a chance on Sampson...yes and I am giving him rope until yes Trevor Williams comes off the D.L  who I still have from last year in our 25 keeper and 5 round redraft league..with minor league spots also....I didnt pick him up until right before his last start....but I am ready to see what he can do until Williams comes back at least...if he keeps pitching well...I may keep him and cut one of my bench bats....but that is a wait and see.

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[ Welcome to the forums, @Stetson.  We're very happy to have you as a member of the community, and welcome your contributions here, but your post is a bit hard to read.  Adding some sentence and paragraph breaks will go a long way toward ensuring that people can read and respond to your posts.  Thanks for stopping by, and we hope you stick around! ]

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6 hours ago, Stetson said:

Sampson is not just a flash in the pan whipping poor teams.....from what I have seen...the guy is doing something that its a shame more pitchers dont learn to do by the time they are 27 years old....he is actually starting to learn how to pitch and not just throw and hope they don't hit it.......do I think he is a cae in the making...shoot no....do I think he will fall to total garbage and no one will remember him in a few weeks.....no sir to that one also.....what I think we have here is a guy that has learn to get the most out of what he has to use......far too many young pitchers never learn this never learn how to pitch...they come up through high school and college and have a decent enough fast ball or curve to get hitters at weaker levels out...they never learn how to really pitch though...they then reach the upper minors or the show and cant get people out because they have no clue what they are doing....they keep throwing a fastball that doesnt blow by advanced hitters and is now considered mediocre instead of above average like in high school or college...or even lower minors......Sampson is smart enough that he is learning how to get hitters in the majors out even though he doesnt have blazing heat......I still to this day find it so funny that so many young fans with all their modern stats think still a pitcher is nothing if he cant throw it 98mph.....fact is in my almsot 30 years of playing fantasy baseball that started before the internet was made available to the public.....I have seen tons of successful pitchers that never had over powering fastballs but knew how to really pitch and get the most out of what they have to pitch with...that is what I am starting to see when I watch Sampson Pitch.....he seems like a guy that is starting to figure out to think and stay a step ahead of the hitter keep the hitter guessing.....instead of just throwing a fastball in a fastball count he isn't afraid to come with an off speed pitch....he trust what he has and is starting to look like a pitcher that isnt afraid to throw any pitch he has at any time in any count...he also is hitting his spots....and that is credit to the fact his control has been dang good.....he isnt just not walking batters.....he is hitting his spots with all his pitches...and what that means is he is making hitters more times than not swing at a pitchers pitch.....and anytime you have a guy that can hit his spots and make hitters even major league hitters swing at his pitch instead of the pitch the hitter is wanting or where he is wanting.....that pitcher is going to succeed more than he looses even if he throws 65 mph like Jamie Moyer once did.....Just saying....what I think we have here is a guy kinda like Trevor Williams of Pittsburgh......who also was a guy no one was all that hyped about everyone said he just didnt have the stuff to be more than a back end innings eater...and yet until he got injured this year he had enjoyed a year and a half of pretty dang good success with the mediocre fastball because he learned how to pitch........I will take a guy that can hit his spots and knows how to pitch all day everyday over a kid who throws 98mph but has no idea what the hell he is doing or where the pitch is going and cant repeat it 2 times in a row if he wants as far as location....because the key isnt always can I get by throwing a fastball to a fastball hitter in a fastball count....the key is can I throw my fastball to the spot I want it at where this fastball hitter has less chance to drill it because he likes them on the other side of the plate or he likes them up or down in the zone......its all about can you hit your spots and Sampson the last several starts is not only hitting his spots with that fastball and getting ahead of hitters throwing strikes but he is pitching to contact as well...but he is able to hit his spots so even when a hitter guesses right...and hits the ball...more times than not he is only getting weak contact from hitting a pitch just outside of where he could drill it or just outside the strike zone....I think Sampson could very well turn into this years Trevor Williams type story.....that guy surprised a lot of people last year...and is a guy who I  picked up last year and he helped me stay in contention the rest of the season and filled a injury hole in my 18 team dynasty league for me....in a deep league like mine...if you can get a guy that offers any upside potential at all off waive wire you better jump and we have no limit to roster moves.....so am I taking a chance on Sampson...yes and I am giving him rope until yes Trevor Williams comes off the D.L  who I still have from last year in our 25 keeper and 5 round redraft league..with minor league spots also....I didnt pick him up until right before his last start....but I am ready to see what he can do until Williams comes back at least...if he keeps pitching well...I may keep him and cut one of my bench bats....but that is a wait and see.

Love this post... Even if it was a bit hard to read. lol.

thanks so much for the input.

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Sampson has had a 60 percent hard-hit rate on balls put in play over his last two starts, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports.

Analysis:The league average hard-hit rate on balls in play is at 37 percent and the balls hit off Sampson had an exit velocity of 95-plus mph. If Sampson were a veteran, the Rangers may shrug it off as a couple of rough starts, but as starter in his first full season in the majors, they view it as potential warning signs. "We are going to have to dig into that because he was hit pretty hard," manager Chris Woodward said. "Feel like his sharpness is kind of not there. I know he has had times where his slider has been sharp and times when it has been a little off. I know (pitching coach) Julio (Rangel) will dig into it tomorrow and see if anything stands out." Sampson lasted just three innings in his start Tuesday, giving up five runs on six hits.

 

He gave up 3 HR in April, 4 in May, he has given up 7 in June.

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Breaking news: he sucks 

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Every time I see this guy's name I think of the line from "Half-Baked".  "I wanna talk to Sampson, fly me to the moon like that b**ch Alice Kramden."

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