Iron-cock

2019 Rotoworld Mock Real League

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Tyreek Hill, WR, KC.

 

spacer.png

 

This was gonna be my pick. But I backed away after deciding that Goodell would spinelessly give in to the outrage and hand out a 4-6 week suspension. It's so easy to outrage over situations involving kids, and there was a precedent set by the 6 game suspension handed out to an innocent Zeke a few years ago.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was kinda being sarcastic 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

With the 3.10 pick, after WR/WR, time to get some running power, and I am a believer in Kerryon Johnson, on the Lions. He's mine, and our Australian friend @PackersFan1979 is next.

 

I was going to make that pick, but then I sniped myself because I didn't think Thielen would drop to 35 in a 0.5 PPR.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ZidaneValor said:

 

I was going to make that pick, but then I sniped myself because I didn't think Thielen would drop to 35 in a 0.5 PPR.

 

Vikings are more run-heavy this year, so I'm guessing one of Diggs/Thielen will fall short of 1000 yards. 1 of the 2 will still have a big season though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Vikings are more run-heavy this year, so I'm guessing one of Diggs/Thielen will fall short of 1000 yards. 1 of the 2 will still have a big season though.

 

I've heard that; I'm not buying it yet.  I like Cook, but Thielen and Diggs are still their best chances on offense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

It's 11am in Australia right now. Where is @PackersFan1979

Don't tell me he's working when he should be on the forum. Bastard.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we think packersfan will make a pick or are we done for the night?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

No worries packersfan... would have been fine to start again tomorrow, but you turned it around!
(and you nailed the pick)
 

Edited by Winky
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who needs to can leave me picks - I’ll be up for another 3-4 hours.  I’d imagine the Asia/Aussie gents as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I Channeled my inner Berry during the down time.  If you don't care... that makes 2 14 of us.

Let me start off by saying this is the latest I've ever been to the party.  My Fantasy Football research, realistically, began Saturday Afternoon.  I dabbled a bit Friday evening, but have had zero interest or care in fantasy thus far.  While each passing year this draft is typically what forces my hand to start making decisions that matter, I always kept up on everything from Feb-July.  This year I did not.  This leaves a 6 month gap in my fantasy knowledge, which basically means I might as well be in my first year ever.  Thank god I got the 4 spot which meant I only had to research 4 players before I could cruise control to the 2nd round... I thought.

Normally after the fantasy season ends, I immediately make a ranking of as many players as I can, while the entire season , good and bad, is fresh on my mind.  People who I liked, didn't liked, who let me down, got injured, came on strong, fell off a cliff, or simply how the general population views a player, relative to my personal thoughts.  I... did NOT do that this year, which is truly unfortunate, because I genuinely believe it helps you eliminate so much off season noise that can persuade you to value players the way 'experts' do or how ADP data says to, and I despise that sheep mentality.

So when I opened up my ADP of choice, I set up 14 teams and checked standard, PPR, and Half point PPR only to realize... I don't know who these players are or who they play for.  Where the hell did Jay Ajayi go?  What happened to the Crow Show?  What team do the #1 WR and RB in the game play for now, because I don't see them on PIT anymore?!?!

 

Anyways, my general strategy has remained consistent for the past 4 or 5 years for better or worse.  I look at my draft spot, highlight every player I like to see what the likelihood of any of them aligning with my position in each round and try to roughly estimate what I expect to happen in the middle to late rounds of the draft and use that to help determine what would best suit my overall team for the early rounds, where more often than not the player values and quality are close enough that it really doesn't matter who you get, or what position they play, all that matters is who you avoid, and dodging any land mines or complete busts.  In the past I've called it Bottoms Up or 150-1, or some lame name in an attempt to be catchy, but it all boils down to the theory that I don't care if I get a top 5 RB or top 5 WR in the first round, nor if I get a top 10 WR or RB in the 2nd round, all that matters is I avoid a complete bust, and so if I know my middle-late draft picks are favoring RB, I'll lean WR early.  If I see my middle/late tendencies favoring WRs then I'm more likely to go RB early.  The same logic applies for flag players, sleepers, or whatever.  If you know there are 3-4 RBs late in the draft you've been keying in on every mock, then drafting 2-3 RBs in the first round, might not make as much sense.

After deciding a general guideline of what I'd like to do in a perfect draft (which will never occur (especially in this group) but whatever) I try to focus on QB and TEs and map a strategy.  They're typically the easiest players to snake draft around, because they're always so evenly spread out across every round evenly.  This allows you to roughly say "I'd take Mahomes if he's there in 3, if not I like the value of P.Manning in 6, and if neither of those happen, I'd be perfectly fine with Dick, Mary, and Jane in 10, 12, or 15.  Same exact mental flow chart for TEs.  If Kelce falls to me at 2 fine, if Kittle lasts until 4 cool, I'd really like Tony Gonzo in the 7th, if that doesn't work out I'll grab Aaron Hernandez in the 12th and I feel comfortable with that, but if worse comes to worst I'll stream JimBob and Cooter and see what happens.  This can be done with DEF as well.

Once that's out of the way, I can focus every other round on WR vs RB and create contingencies for each.  So, I look at the ADP and what do I see?  A ton of WR names I don't know, rookies I didn't research because I stopped playing Dynasty, and a ton of guys who switched teams, or QBs, yadda yadda yadda.  That made it pretty clear to me, I was going to want to get 2 or 3 WRs in the first handful of rounds, because I don't know enough to reliably play the lotto odds as of today.  I compare the WRs I like in each round, relative to my draft position.

Picking 4th gives me a solid opportunity to take the #1 WR, Anton... oh wait he's a Raider.  Well f---, who's the #1 WR then?  Hopkins, Adams, or M.Thomas are the consensus top 3, I do my diligence and it was a fairly easy decision for me, Hop is my #1 WR this year.  I have now made my first 'decision' of the fantasy season.  That's why I am in this league, because it forces me to care before my real leagues ever begin.  My rankings have officially started.

I do a similar analysis of the WRs in the 2nd and 3rd round.  Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, Thielen, Amari and the off chance someone like Evans or AB fall to me.  This looks like the money spot for my WR targets.  Plenty of names in that group that I would love to be my top 2 WRs and the RB options in the same spot are slim, with the only one worth consideration (imo at this time; subject to change) is Fournette.  I have zero interest in owning Damien, Chubb, Jones, or Mack.  I don't have a strong reason to justify it yet, but they don't move the needle for me so for the time being I can just ignore them and move on.


3.04 A.J. Green
2.11 Keenan Allen
Glancing down the board, it's easy to see I wanted to come out of the first 3 rounds with 2 WRs, maybe 3, and the 2/3 wrap had the ripest fruit.  I would have been ecstatic if AB fell to me, but I ended up getting 2 of the 3 guys I liked (Allen, Green, Hilton in that order).  Amari is a player who reinforces why I like to make rankings at the end of the season.  So much hype because of 'how amazing he was once he became a Cowboy' and 'Finished the season strong' but 1 look at his game logs and I was reminded that people were drastically blowing that out of proportion.  2 Amazing games, everything else seemed exactly like the guy he's always been.  More time, chemistry, whatever, I don't question his talent or ability in any way, but his production always seems to be lacking, perhaps just due to expectations too high.  At the 2nd round I was deciding between Hilton/Allen but Allen's upside seems higher and then I noticed Hilton's ankle woes and that made it an easy decision to just take Keenan, who incredibly somehow just turned 27, Hilton will be 30 this year.  That dropped TY down a notch and at 3 I was going to take whichever one of Hilton(Ankle) or Green(Toe) fell to me, or be sadly forced to choose between them.  Choice was made for me, which works out.  These guys both have injury risks, but when on the field are top 6-8 WRs in my opinion, and to have 2 of them in a 14 team league feels great 'on paper'.

1.04 Ezekiel Elliot
The first round was suppose to be the easiest.  Only 4 players to decipher, but that went out the window fast.  It seemed universal Zeke and Barkley would be the top 2 players off the board, I do have them in a tier of their own there as well.  After that, I don't think it's nearly as simple as everyone else is making it out to be.  CmC and Kamara are very similar and were my next stop for analysis, but I wasn't enthralled with either one.  After them you get to DJ and Melvin Gordon.  DJ is great but his injury history is far higher than people give credit because he's had some lucky timing, the Cardinals are a disaster of an offense, new QB, new HC... bleh.  So many variables, that's not really what I desire for the 4th overall pick.  I've never been a fan of Melvin Gordon, combined with the holdout, he wasn't even a consideration for me.  At this point, I'm thinking I'm going Hopkins all the way.  But then we get to Le'Veon Bell (who's dick I've been on for years now) and Gurley, last years undisputed #1 back in the game.  All questions and concerns are valid, I won't dispute that, but these guys are cream of the crop and talent wise are equals to Zeke/Barkley (and due to pass catching, I'd even say superior to Zeke for fantasy purposes).  I think these 2 are being slept on.  So much so that they were the key targets of wanting to trade down.  I'm not excited about a pick from 3~7 and if I could trade down, pay a cheaper price for Bell or Gurley, and pick up a 2nd/3rd round pick for it... I would have been all over that.

As fate would have it, all of my research was for naught, slitting hairs between CmC and Kamara was for nothing, deciding if I wanted to be the first one to shake up the ADP by just grabbing Bell or Gurley and saying fugggit.  And then this loveable knuckle-headed wookie-lookin' mother f---er fell in my lap, and it was an easy decision for me.  He's an idiot, exposing women in public, knocking security guards guards over, or getting suspended for 6 games because... hell I don't think they ever decided what he did but he's probably guilty.  Regardless this is fantasy football not moral heroes and he's an absolute monster.  Amari to open things up for the offense, Zeke actually averaged more carries, more yards, more TDs, more targets, more receptions, and more receiving yards, to the tune of 5, yes 5 more fantasy points PER game.  He's never 'paced' less than 1500 yards rushing in his 3 season career thus far.  Scoring only 9 TDs total last year screams progression to the mean.  I doubt anyone needs reasons to draft Zeke other than trust he doesn't do some dumb s--- and get suspended.

For what it's worth, I believe my RB rankings will look something like this given my research thus far:

Barkley, Zeke (T1)
CMC, Kamara...DJ? (T2)
Bell, Gurley (T3)

Then after that it's probably a lot of nit picking between Gordon, Mixon (T4) followed by Conner, Cook, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say Fournette for T5.  Williams, Chubb, Jones, and Mack just don't do it for me, but to be fair I haven't done my due diligence.  If I don't look for anything to like, I obviously won't find it, so they deserve some attention, but given my draft position I was able to cut those corners for the time being.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

[long-a** post]

I like your long-a** post. If I am bored, I will try to do something similar, albeit possibly slightly less long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.