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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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9 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Both lasers to center. But he’s like 22 years old and runs like he’s 40. 🤔 

Big Papi wasn’t a burner , either. 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Never heard of em

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, nlm said:

And if the player can provide top-75 value the ROS? Coupled with what Yordan was doing at Round Rock, in Houston's lineup, in a juiced ball era... comparing him to Lawrie is not in the same ballpark--sorry. Their pedigree isn't even close to one another's/

Have to agree here.  I understand what the other person is saying, but there are certain players that come up where you just know they are going to be good and stick.  Obviously sometimes it still doesn't work out the first time (Trout, Betts), but obviously this time it has with Alvarez.  Like you said, what he was doing at Round Rock gave us all the confidence he would be, and now what he is doing and continues to do gives us confidence he will continue to be very valuable.

Also, while he does strike out a little over once per game, he takes some walks, which is another reason to believe he will continue to be really good.  Not saying that players like Riley aren't good in their own right, but I would say ones that takes walks have a much more stable floor.

Edited by KilloWertz
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Posted (edited)
On 6/21/2019 at 11:19 AM, Members_Only_76 said:

Someone has been cloned...

 

43_092503_tbtor_delgado_4hrs_tw_ieelmj5z

 

20 minutes ago, twistedude said:

Who is a good comparison for Alvarez? Perhaps a Manny Ramirez?

 

Carlos Delgado. 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

 

Carlos Delgado. 

 

Hadn't thought about Delgado, but now that you mention it, I think it's a great comparison. Especially early in Delgado's career. Similar body types too.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, nlm said:

And if the player can provide top-75 value the ROS? Coupled with what Yordan was doing at Round Rock, in Houston's lineup, in a juiced ball era... comparing him to Lawrie is not in the same ballpark--sorry. Their pedigree isn't even close to one another's/

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

Edited by dkrocka
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11 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

 

So you’re saying he could end up with a 1.5xx OPS? Now that’s scary. 

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59 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

 

Are you anti-Yordan or just anti-Rookie?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

Have you seen his September schedule?  

Mariners 

A’s

Rangers 

Royals 

Mariners 

Angels 

 

doesnt take a lot of adjusting to the Mariners 19.29 era openers lead by Matt Kerosine Caraseti, Mike Piss Leake, amongst other horrific f****** losers.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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The chase for 60 hrs:

2019 Baseball's Overall Home Run Leaders:

1-Kevin Cron (33)

2-Yordan Alvarez (32)

3-Christian Yelich (31 - 55-homer pace as of 7-11)

4-Cody Bellinger (30 - 53-homer pace as of 7-11)

5-Peter Alonso (30 - 54-homer pace as of 7-11)

 

2019 Fangraph's MLB Hard Hit % Leaders (90 PA min):

1-Nelson Cruz (56.2%)

2-Yordan Alvarez (56.1%)

3-Joey Gallo (55.1%)

4-Matt Olson (54.4%)

5-Christian Yelich (54.4%)

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Does there have to be a person that basically wants players to fail in so many threads?  Gary Sanchez's has been ruined basically, Austin Riley's is probably still a mess even though he's slowed down anyways, and now Yordan's?  It doesn't always have to be rosy, but I guess there has to be one person out there that thinks they know that a player is going to fail for really no apparent reason.

2 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

So you’re saying he could end up with a 1.5xx OPS? Now that’s scary. 

Lol, I like it.  Technically he could ruin teams in the playoffs if you don't own him. 😀

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Does there have to be a person that basically wants players to fail in so many threads?  Gary Sanchez's has been ruined basically, Austin Riley's is probably still a mess even though he's slowed down anyways, and now Yordan's?  It doesn't always have to be rosy, but I guess there has to be one person out there that thinks they know that a player is going to fail for really no apparent reason.

Lol, I like it.  Technically he could ruin teams in the playoffs if you don't own him. 😀

 

Read his original post. He actually wanted Yordan. Go figure. The topic you bring up frustrates the hell out of me though.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

 

Sorry you missed out. :)

Edited by nlm
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1 hour ago, nlm said:

 

 

Read his original post. He actually wanted Yordan. Go figure. The topic you bring up frustrates the hell out of me though.

That's strange. I guess he's just sore then.

I would say you have no idea, but obviously you do.  I finally had to give up in the Gary Sanchez thread, and kind of luckily since I traded Riley I don't have to worry about that crap anymore either.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, dkrocka said:

I regret not picking this guy up early. Need to establish dominance against 3rd seed to feel good about getting a bye week. He has this cat. Be careful though, rookies are wildcards. Remember how great Brett lawrie was on call up, and how bad Trout was.

 

Lol. He just contradicted himself. Some people can't be the 1/10th bit wrong in a debate, though. I still do not see how he is comparable to Trout or Lawrie at all. That was also years ago. Come up with a more recent sample, at least...

And the whole argument on trading rookies for top 75 value... Yordan IS top 75 value ROS. Easily. That's just a stupid argument again made for the sake of arguing...

 

Edited by nlm

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, nlm said:

 

Lol. He just contradicted himself. Some people can't be the 1/10th bit wrong in a debate, though. I still do not see how he is comparable to Trout or Lawrie at all. That was also years ago. Come up with a more recent sample, at least...

And the whole argument on trading rookies for top 75 value... Yordan IS top 75 value ROS. Easily. That's just a stupid argument again made for the sake of arguing...

 

Explain why two months into this season Austin Meadows started seeing a ton of curveballs and slumped. Scouting "books" are very real. If you trade now you lock in the value you got from getting yordy so late with far less risk... Because these boring guys like Eugenio suarez? You know what you're getting. There isn't gonna be some revelation 6 years into Suarez's career that he doesn't like fastballs up and in or curveballs or whatever. That takes... about 200 at bats. That book isn't closed on yordy and growing pains are right around the corner, especially with a 400babip and 37 HR/FB. And just so we're clear, I never offered a trade for Yordy, didn't even even pick him up off free agency. This isn't propoganda, it's calculated risk and it's why sophomore slumps are common. You don't think pitchers will adjust to Yordy's tendencies?

Edited by dkrocka
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[Long-ish derail removed.  This thread needs to be focused on Yordan Alvarez's fantasy outlook, not a forum member's correct / incorrect calls.]

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Posted (edited)

400 babip

37% HR/FB

25% k rate

It does not matter how good you are, that 350 average isn't sticking around. 

You know what that kind of a season that hr ratio is? An 70ish HR season. 

25% k rate doesn't suggest a 300 average. Could happen, but unlikely.

 

For reference:

League average 310 babip

12.5ish HR/FB

In terms of what kind of numbers you should expect in a standard league rest of the way?. Javy Baez without the steals.

Edited by dkrocka
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17 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

400 babip

37% HR/FB

25% k rate

It does not matter how good you are, that 350 average isn't sticking around. 

You know what that kind of a season that hr ratio is? An 70ish HR season. 

25% k rate doesn't suggest a 300 average. Could happen, but unlikely.

 

For reference:

League average 310 babip

12.5ish HR/FB

In terms of what kind of numbers you should expect in a standard league rest of the way?. Javy Baez without the steals.

Using advanced metrics to predict stats isnt the be all end all.  Its only a tool, a very useful one but always needs to be looked at further.  Most high power guys will have a high k rate.  The increased launch angle leads to more ks since the uppercut motion makes it easier to miss the bat.  More importantly it leads to more homeruns and a way to beat the shift.  Strong guys like alvarez would be expectdd to have a higher than average hr/fb rate.  Guys that strong would also be expected to have a higher .babip because of fhe high exit velocity. Theres nothing average about him,so comparing him to league average isnt a perfect way to measure.  I dont rhink anyone expexts .350, 70 but at this point posturing is irrelevant. (Almost) No ones selling because hes too fun to own,no ones buying becaise the cost is too high and everyones starting.

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And if he hovers around a 20% hr/FB you're still cutting half his home runs. And if his babip is 330? Your still dropping his average 70 or 80 points. Those are realistic projections and they put him closer to 250 than 300 with 30-35 HR over a full season. Thats also assuming he won't have to make any adjustments over an indefinite amount of time.

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7 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

And if he hovers around a 20% hr/FB you're still cutting half his home runs. And if his babip is 330? Your still dropping his average 70 or 80 points. Those are realistic projections and they put him closer to 250 than 300 with 30-35 HR over a full season. Thats also assuming he won't have to make any adjustments over an indefinite amount of time.

I think the excitement comes from the fact that he is 22 years old and has been basically on fire since his call up. So, it's more of a "wow, this guy might have a great career ahead of him.", rather than, "OMG this guy is going to singlehandedly win my league this season.", in my humble opinion. 

Still, he's more than welcome to win me my fantasy league (omg).

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33 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

And if his babip is 330? Your still dropping his average 70 or 80 points

This is not necessarily true. We have no idea what his true talent BABIP/avg relation is at this point. It's not as simple as "oh his BABIP is surely going to drop 70 points so his average will also drop 70 points"

 

 

(Also, *you're)

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, cs3 said:

This is not necessarily true. We have no idea what his true talent BABIP/avg relation is at this point. It's not as simple as "oh his BABIP is surely going to drop 70 points so his average will also drop 70 points"

 

 

(Also, *you're)

Exactly, who's to say he's not a legit high BABIP player?  Plus, like you said, just because one drops 70 points doesn't mean the other does too.

Honestly, this whole argument is just stupid, especially for a player that has a whopping 90 career ABs.  Will he continue to have a BABIP of .400?  Unlikely.  Will he continue to have an OPS over 1.100?  Doubt it.  Are some of his other metrics inflated?  Probably.  Do we have any idea what they will end up being?  Nope.  What we do know is Yordan Alvarez completely crushed minor league pitching this season and so far has done the same in the majors.  I'd say the odds are higher he becomes a star like he is looking like so far than a guy who ends up being just an ordinary power hitter.  While he is striking out a decent amount, his plate discipline is solid enough that the former is much more likely than the latter.

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed passive aggressive subtweeting of other members. Make your points without this nonsense.

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