kwelch

Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

This is all assuming that his K rate is stable. Which, it really is not.  As with any rookie.

Its a constant  ebb and flow of pitchers adjusting to him and himself adjusting to MLB pitching. The debate about BABIP is rather moot if his K rate lowers or rises. Which it probably will.

No, one cannot sustain a .400 BABIP in the long run..but that doesn't prevent him from being a .300 hitter. Don't think anyone here thinks he's keep having a BA nearly 40 points above Trout anyway. 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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A rough estimate is a 100 point drop in BABIP is a 50 point drop in BA. 

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15 hours ago, dkrocka said:

And if he hovers around a 20% hr/FB you're still cutting half his home runs. And if his babip is 330? Your still dropping his average 70 or 80 points. Those are realistic projections and they put him closer to 250 than 300 with 30-35 HR over a full season. Thats also assuming he won't have to make any adjustments over an indefinite amount of time.

 

A .330 BABiP doesn’t automatically mean someone’s avg drops by 70 to 80 points. That’s a very flawed theory. As long as Alvarez can maintain a solid LD% his average will not drop 70/80 points. 

Bringing up league average HR/FB% makes zero sense when Alvarez has good power. His HR/FB% is never going to be league average. Peter Alonso or Franmil Reyes will never have a league average HR/FB%. With the juiced ball it’s going to be even easier for these power hitters to have high HR/FB%. Especially a power hitter playing half his games in Houston. 

You’re only bringing up metrics to help support your theory that he will regress. Of course he won’t bat .400 and hit 70 HR. I don’t need metrics for that. But you don’t bring up his 28,6 LD%, 8 Doubles or 10,8 BB%. You don’t bring up his below league average Swing% and SwStr%. So far he has shown he’s not a one trick pony who only wants to hit bombs. Those types usually do regress fast. Yet you call him “Baez without the steals” when Alvarez is not the free swinger that Baez is. He has always shown to be able to take a BB, something Baez has never been known for. 

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30 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

A .330 BABiP doesn’t automatically mean someone’s avg drops by 70 to 80 points. That’s a very flawed theory. As long as Alvarez can maintain a solid LD% his average will not drop 70/80 points. 

Bringing up league average HR/FB% makes zero sense when Alvarez has good power. His HR/FB% is never going to be league average. Peter Alonso or Franmil Reyes will never have a league average HR/FB%. With the juiced ball it’s going to be even easier for these power hitters to have high HR/FB%. Especially a power hitter playing half his games in Houston. 

You’re only bringing up metrics to help support your theory that he will regress. Of course he won’t bat .400 and hit 70 HR. I don’t need metrics for that. But you don’t bring up his 28,6 LD%, 8 Doubles or 10,8 BB%. You don’t bring up his below league average Swing% and SwStr%. So far he has shown he’s not a one trick pony who only wants to hit bombs. Those types usually do regress fast. Yet you call him “Baez without the steals” when Alvarez is not the free swinger that Baez is. He has always shown to be able to take a BB, something Baez has never been known for. 

Standard leagues use R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG. I did mention that was my reference for comping Baez to Alvarez. Don't invent things or change what I said.

From a statistical standpoint a 275ish average with 30 home runs... is a 275ish average with 30 home runs. Swing tendencies/walks don't do much besides quality of pitch to hit, and even then you're opening up the counterargument of increased strikeouts. 

Better hope Yordy adjusts quick when pitchers start attacking him up in the zone

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*sigh*

"AJ Hinch told reporters before Wednesday's game against the Angels that he's still being bothered by his left knee injury.

Alvarez missed a few games because of the injury at the end of June, but he's returned to playing (almost) everyday, and has had several quality offensive games since. He's in a 2-for-16 funk right now, however, and Hinch noted that he's seen him swing at some bad pitches and that he's "not moving great." He also mentioned that he could be given a day off or two to help manage things for the remainder of the season." 

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Yordan's back in the lineup... again.

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1 hour ago, KilloWertz said:

Yordan's back in the lineup... again.

 

 

::crosses fingers that he remains in lineup::

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39 minutes ago, The_Real_Deal said:

 

 

::crosses fingers that he remains in lineup::

Same here.  The one plus is he still remains productive, but hopefully he can put the knee injury behind him sooner rather than later.

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You guys think he’s only an every day player at home and AL parks? With the sore knee especially.

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3 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

You guys think he’s only an every day player at home and AL parks? With the sore knee especially.

 

Does he even have any NL parks on the schedule this year? I suppose he would not play multiple games in a series right now as a fielder.

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10 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Does he even have any NL parks on the schedule this year? I suppose he would not play multiple games in a series right now as a fielder.

 

He sat each game @ COL. He has @ STL next week.

 

He plays a couple games @ MKE early Sept. Overall not a concern, but something to note for weekly leagues especially next week.

 

 

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where do u guys see him being drafted next year? hard to gauge on small sample size

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2 hours ago, floppy said:

where do u guys see him being drafted next year? hard to gauge on small sample size

 

11th overall. Just after Mookie...before Baez.

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He'll have OF in yahoo, but CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, and NFBC defaults will have him at DH only unless he picks up like 15 games in OF

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1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

I would guess in the 100 range where devers and Eloy went this year...but maybe a little before??

Are you joking? His numbers are way better than Devers last year, and he's on Houston. If he keeps this up he's going to go wayyyyyyyy earlier in redrafts.

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Just now, miasma16 said:

Are you joking? His numbers are way better than Devers last year, and he's on Houston. If he keeps this up he's going to go wayyyyyyyy earlier in redrafts.

No I was not. That's why I said I would guess lol settle down.

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28 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

OF2 in 12 teamers?

I like this one, assuming OF eligibility.  Am I WAY off, or is he a little similar-ish to Juan Soto (so far) in terms of hype, production and rapid rise?  It seemed like Soto was “bigger.” In standard 12s Soto was going late 2 to about late 3 I think, so maybe 2 rounds after that? Maybe just over 50.  Wherever it is, I’m assuming it’s gonna have to be a reach.  People love hype and potential.  This is purely guesswork on my part and assuming no injuries or production nosedives.

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39 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

OF2 in 12 teamers?

 

35 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

He'll have OF in yahoo, but CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, and NFBC defaults will have him at DH only unless he picks up like 15 games in OF

 

Yeah, I forgot the OF eligibility thing is not a given yet.

 

UTL1 :)

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4 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I like this one, assuming OF eligibility.  Am I WAY off, or is he a little similar-ish to Juan Soto (so far) in terms of hype, production and rapid rise?  It seemed like Soto was “bigger.” In standard 12s Soto was going late 2 to about late 3 I think, so maybe 2 rounds after that? Maybe just over 50.  Wherever it is, I’m assuming it’s gonna have to be a reach.  People love hype and potential.  This is purely guesswork on my part and assuming no injuries or production nosedives.

 

Give me Yordy, 45-50 HR with .285-.300 avg. in 2020.

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Give me Yordy, 45-50 HR with .285-.300 avg. in 2020.

 

A decent floor, to be sure, but I think folks are mostly excited to see what his ceiling might be.  

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Posted (edited)

That bomb Yordy hit yesterday...has it landed yet?

Edited by lavaman
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He's just simply too good. For those of us who waited on him in redrafts... we're definitely being rewarded.

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