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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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10 hours ago, lavaman said:

That bomb Yordy hit yesterday...has it landed yet?

Not sure.  I never actually saw it land in the video that was posted, so I can't confirm nor deny that it's ever landed yet. 😀

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I think you'd have to consult with NASA to figure out its trajectory; there might be an asteroid or something out there eventually in its way.

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FWIW, the guy hits the ball hard.  According to Statcast he is 10th in average exit velocity 93mph and 14th in barrel % per plate appearance.  His expected batting average according to them is .287.  So there will be some regression in the batting average department but the guy is gonna hit for a very good average. His BABIP will be high because he makes excellent contact and hits to all fields.  His swing is compact for a big guy.  Reasonable expectation is .280-.290 with 30-40 HRs, where does that put him in redraft leagues next year?

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1 minute ago, jradMIT said:

FWIW, the guy hits the ball hard.  According to Statcast he is 10th in average exit velocity 93mph and 14th in barrel % per plate appearance.  His expected batting average according to them is .287.  So there will be some regression in the batting average department but the guy is gonna hit for a very good average. His BABIP will be high because he makes excellent contact and hits to all fields.  His swing is compact for a big guy.  Reasonable expectation is .280-.290 with 30-40 HRs, where does that put him in redraft leagues next year?

Assuming hes OF elligible, a .290,35 reasonanle assumption as a yr 2 player puts him mid to late second.  Id hes util only im thinking about 2 rounds later.

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2nd Round seems about right. Even late 1st Round.

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Also, I would add being in that lineup should give his draft status a decent boost.  His counting stats are gonna be great with the lineup around him.  

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That lineup is stacked, and if/when Tucker arrives, it could become even more dangerous. Depending on his utility vs. of status, he would be a late 1st/early 2nd w/ of eligibility or 4th with utl status.

His stats will still be there. Ortiz was amazing utility fantasy player near the end, if I'm not mistaking.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, lavaman said:

2nd Round seems about right. Even late 1st Round.

 

 

Mid second round. Not a first 

Edited by The_Real_Deal

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16 hours ago, lavaman said:

2nd Round seems about right. Even late 1st Round.

Prisoner of the moment. Hard sell for a non steal guy w/ limited track record. No matter how talented a pure hitter he is.

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Prisoner of the moment. Hard sell for a non steal guy w/ limited track record. No matter how talented a pure hitter he is.

Doesn't matter, hype always wins out come draft time. Remember how high a guy like Jorge Soler was drafted after 25 games the year before?

If Yordan plays to his potential ROS he will be a 2nd Rounder, no doubt in my mind... Doesn't mean you will draft him there, but guarantee someone else will.

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25 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Doesn't matter, hype always wins out come draft time. Remember how high a guy like Jorge Soler was drafted after 25 games the year before?

If Yordan plays to his potential ROS he will be a 2nd Rounder, no doubt in my mind... Doesn't mean you will draft him there, but guarantee someone else will.

Juan Soto did not go in the 2nd round, but people this time last year felt like it would trend that way. It's not that he isn't going to hyped. It's under-estimating how many others will also get hyped after a slew of off-season articles and rankings will influence ADP.

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40 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Juan Soto did not go in the 2nd round, but people this time last year felt like it would trend that way. It's not that he isn't going to hyped. It's under-estimating how many others will also get hyped after a slew of off-season articles and rankings will influence ADP.

True, good point.

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Juan Soto did not go in the 2nd round, but people this time last year felt like it would trend that way. It's not that he isn't going to hyped. It's under-estimating how many others will also get hyped after a slew of off-season articles and rankings will influence ADP.

Acuna was a first-rounder after putting up first-round numbers last year. Alvarez is putting up 2nd round numbers since being called up; in leagues where he has OF-eligibility, he'll be going in the Top 30 at a minimum.

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what do people think of this write up (bold/red) about the future for Alvarez?

https://www.pitcherlist.com/travis-sherers-top-100-dynasty-assets-part-3-2/

Quote

56. Yordan Alvarez, 1B, HOU, Age: 22
Last Ranked: NR

 

It really is amazing how deep the Astros farm system really is. If Yordan Alvarez didn’t explode this season, it’s very likely he would be supplanted by the next big bat in Houston’s system: Seth Beer. Good thing for Alvarez that they finally decided they wanted to see if his 1.100 OPS would translate in the majors. So far, it has. If I thought this was a more permanent thing, obviously he’d be up there between Josh Bell and Pete Alonso. Regression is coming, but it’s not going to be ugly.

 

Alvarez does currently have 28.1 K%, along with .412 BABIP.

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Yordans numbers are still insane so regression is just starting the obvious. He's going to regress to very good territory. 

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2 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

what do people think of this write up (bold/red) about the future for Alvarez?

https://www.pitcherlist.com/travis-sherers-top-100-dynasty-assets-part-3-2/

 

Alvarez does currently have 28.1 K%, along with .412 BABIP.

It's a pretty awful write-up. Why compare him to Josh Bell? Bell was useless last season. 

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4 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Acuna was a first-rounder after putting up first-round numbers last year. Alvarez is putting up 2nd round numbers since being called up; in leagues where he has OF-eligibility, he'll be going in the Top 30 at a minimum.

When the top ranked prospect actually lives to his billing as a 5 cat stud. Its a little different. At least i'd like to think so.

The the top of the draft order and all the player in there tend to be looked into from way too many angles in the off-season. Way more then projected mid-round picks. Don't really see how his hype is going to be better than Soto, IMO. Given there is more offense this year then last year. More competition, more emphasis on SB/BA chasing. Which, granted he provides potential in one of those, but not the other.

 Finishing the season strong plays a big role..but it doesn't define ADP. There can be a good argument for top 30 here. Using Acuna as an example is not one of them.

 

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

It's a pretty awful write-up. Why compare him to Josh Bell? Bell was useless last season. 

That's not really comparing him to either Bell or Alonso.  It's just stating that Yordan would be up there in the tier of 1B with them if he thought that his numbers wouldn't regress.

The obvious issue is he will likely never have 1B eligibility, so that does kind of mess with the ranking in more ways than one.

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2 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Why compare him to Josh Bell? Bell was useless last season. 

 

Easy, because he's not comparing him to last year's season of Josh Bell.  Not even talking about Bell specifically, but lots of very good players have bad years, a comp to them isn't comparing them to a previous season in which they performed badly in. 

 

56th ranked asset is pretty good

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4 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

what do people think of this write up (bold/red) about the future for Alvarez?

https://www.pitcherlist.com/travis-sherers-top-100-dynasty-assets-part-3-2/

 

Alvarez does currently have 28.1 K%, along with .412 BABIP.

 

I think the blurb says it fine, regression is coming but it's not going to be ugly. Lots of times you see people in these threads or your league message boards quick to say "regression is coming" or "so and so regression train".  Anytime a player is hitting god awful or unbelievable, regression is coming. They are very obviously going to have performances start to go in the other direction. His .333 average very obviously wont continue.  I think Alvarez can be a plus average hitter, probably closer to the 280 range and obviously has a lot of power. 

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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think the blurb says it fine, regression is coming but it's not going to be ugly. Lots of times you see people in these threads or your league message boards quick to say "regression is coming" or "so and so regression train".  Anytime a player is hitting god awful or unbelievable, regression is coming. They are very obviously going to have performances start to go in the other direction. His .333 average very obviously wont continue.  I think Alvarez can be a plus average hitter, probably closer to the 280 range and obviously has a lot of power. 

I agree with everything.  And a .280,34 hr type season with excellent countinf stats given that he hits cleanup in the best lineup in baseball is reaspnable.  Not a floor or a ceiling. But given his age,how on earth is he 56 on a dynasty list??

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Posted (edited)

Yordan is a 300 AVG 120RBI 120R 40HR player in a full season in that lineup. Wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeded those stats.  Excited to own him.

Edited by bjvance5

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Posted (edited)

If you combine with AAA he already has 34 HR with 106 RBI. Crazy.

(11 HR / 35 RBI at MLB)

Edited by lassetjus
Math

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