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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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I have to keep two players between Bellinger, Betts, Bogaerts , J. Ram and Yordan and I honestly haven’t ruled out keeping big Yo. Baseball has turned into a young man’s game over the last few years and there doesn’t seem to be any indication that he’s going to be anything less than a top tier power bat. So at draft time I guess he goes somewhere in between the guys I just listed and he looks like a good bet to bring a lot of owners home a championship in 2019.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Where did Prime Papi end up in rankings? Not where he was drafted, but ended up. Because he was also a guy vastly underrated year in and year out. Anyway, that’s where your Yordan should go. 

Hitting is more preventlant now it was in Papi's prime. He was more a cut above the rest back then. So, not sure that makes sense since the environment of baseball has changed.

Will say the increase in hitting has made position scarcity irrelevant. Though UT only guys still are at a dis-advantage to the rest. That being said, people are still lagging behind in adjusting to the new environment. Since guys like Hoskins were a top 40 pick coming into this year. So he should easy fit into top 40 ADP next year.

I mentioned earlier that Juan Soto's ADP was around 30 coming into this year. That is probably the range.

Edited by Slatykamora

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Whole lot of bad analogies ITT, comparing position players to UTIL players. UTIL guys have their draft day value seriously depressed. Naming off people like Hoskins is simply nonsense.

It's hard to find old ADP data. Ortiz in 2011 finished the year ranked 35th, according to Baseball Monster. Vlad Guerrero, who I think is a better comp, finished 2010 ranked 23rd (Yordan is 17th in per game on Yahoo!). 

https://web.archive.org/web/20120311175907/https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

You can find 2012 draft ADP though. And yes, Yordan is on the way up, and Ortiz was on the way down. Ortiz's ADP was 102. I think you're fooling yourselves if you're so certain he won't last into the 5th round. People value (and yes, in my opinion, overvalue) positional versatility every single year come draft day. There is definitely the possibility that someone reaches for him because he's young, and that happens in drafts, and I think he'd be worth it because I end up with a UTIL guy every year, because they're undervalued. But his ADP is likely to be in the 6th come next March, I'd say, right or wrong. In formats where he's got OF eligibility it's a completely different story.

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8 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Whole lot of bad analogies ITT, comparing position players to UTIL players. UTIL guys have their draft day value seriously depressed. Naming off people like Hoskins is simply nonsense.

It's hard to find old ADP data. Ortiz in 2011 finished the year ranked 35th, according to Baseball Monster. Vlad Guerrero, who I think is a better comp, finished 2010 ranked 23rd (Yordan is 17th in per game on Yahoo!). 

https://web.archive.org/web/20120311175907/https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

You can find 2012 draft ADP though. And yes, Yordan is on the way up, and Ortiz was on the way down. Ortiz's ADP was 102. I think you're fooling yourselves if you're so certain he won't last into the 5th round. People value (and yes, in my opinion, overvalue) positional versatility every single year come draft day. There is definitely the possibility that someone reaches for him because he's young, and that happens in drafts, and I think he'd be worth it because I end up with a UTIL guy every year, because they're undervalued. But his ADP is likely to be in the 6th come next March, I'd say, right or wrong. In formats where he's got OF eligibility it's a completely different story.

 

He's played 7 games in the OF this year since being called . If he doesn't earn OF eligibility from this year he will earn it in short order in 2020. I do not agree with your assessment. 

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1 hour ago, treyjuice said:

 

He's played 7 games in the OF this year since being called . If he doesn't earn OF eligibility from this year he will earn it in short order in 2020. I do not agree with your assessment. 

It'd behoove you to read posts you reply to. It doesn't matter what you think about whether or not he gets OF eligibility by the end of the year. He either will or won't get it on different sites, and his ADP will greatly vary accordingly.

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29 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

It'd behoove you to read posts you reply to. It doesn't matter what you think about whether or not he gets OF eligibility by the end of the year. He either will or won't get it on different sites, and his ADP will greatly vary accordingly.

Nah he’s right you’re talking in circles 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Whole lot of bad analogies ITT, comparing position players to UTIL players. UTIL guys have their draft day value seriously depressed. Naming off people like Hoskins is simply nonsense.

It's hard to find old ADP data. Ortiz in 2011 finished the year ranked 35th, according to Baseball Monster. Vlad Guerrero, who I think is a better comp, finished 2010 ranked 23rd (Yordan is 17th in per game on Yahoo!). 

https://web.archive.org/web/20120311175907/https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

You can find 2012 draft ADP though. And yes, Yordan is on the way up, and Ortiz was on the way down. Ortiz's ADP was 102. I think you're fooling yourselves if you're so certain he won't last into the 5th round. People value (and yes, in my opinion, overvalue) positional versatility every single year come draft day. There is definitely the possibility that someone reaches for him because he's young, and that happens in drafts, and I think he'd be worth it because I end up with a UTIL guy every year, because they're undervalued. But his ADP is likely to be in the 6th come next March, I'd say, right or wrong. In formats where he's got OF eligibility it's a completely different story.

(This is not a talent comparison, but in response your UT argument)

Yahoo K. Davis had OF with a 37 ADP

ESPN K. Davis had UT with a 43 ADP.

 It's not "irrelevant", it matters, but its' really not a big deal when people feel the talent is worth it (Like they thought Davis was for his bankable 40 HRs a year)  Davis's ADP was not vert different across all sites despite having different eligibility. Yordan might have more variance, but that will likely more due to being more unproven/higher upside. Then his eligibility.

Feel that applies more then 2011-2012, where a lot of things have changed.

Edited by Slatykamora

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10 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

(This is not a talent comparison, but in response your UT argument)

Yahoo K. Davis had OF with a 37 ADP

ESPN K. Davis had UT with a 43 ADP.

 It's not "irrelevant", it matters, but its' really not a big deal when people feel the talent is worth it (Like they thought Davis was for his bankable 40 HRs a year)  Davis's ADP was not vert different across all sites despite having different eligibility. Yordan might have more variance, but that will likely more due to being more unproven/higher upside. Then his eligibility.

Feel that applies more then 2011-2012, where a lot of things have changed.

Much better example, and you're right. It still appears that people are overdrafting guys that do have a ton of positional eligibility, but it looks like the logic has finally caught up to the ADP on the DH. 4th round seems reasonable for 2020, assuming this historic start continues.

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Much better example, and you're right. It still appears that people are overdrafting guys that do have a ton of positional eligibility, but it looks like the logic has finally caught up to the ADP on the DH. 4th round seems reasonable for 2020, assuming this historic start continues.

But do you think Yordan will go inside 4 rounds? 

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Someone in the Hiura thread pointed out a lot of guys are losing 2B eligibility this coming year. I would imagine the weight fantasy owners place on position eligibility coorelates closely to position scarcity in a given year. This past year seemed relatively deep at historically shallow positions (eg 2B, SS) so that could have something to do with a boost to DH-only types value.  

He'll be an interesting case. We don't today see DH only guys this young either, just to throw another variable into the mix.

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15 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

But do you think Yordan will go inside 4 rounds? 

If you want him youre going to have to reach well above his adp because someone else will.  Not arguing whether or nor its the right move or not,just that it will happen.

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

But do you think Yordan will go inside 4 rounds? 

He probably won't slip past the 4th if he keeps this up. Kind of a waste to talk about this stuff in summer. But he's hitting about as well as Davis did last year in terms of rank (Davis overall vs Yordan per game) and Yordan is younger. Obviously could be a fair bit higher. And if he keeps up and has OF eligibility on a site, still different. Just not as different as I thought, nor as it used to be. 

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Posted (edited)

Assuming he stays within the general range of his performance thus far, in standard 12 team leagues I see him going as early as last few picks of the second round to somewhere in the third round.  Maybe he sneaks into the 3rd/4th bookend in a few leagues, but anyone who thinks he's going to last well into the fourth or even fifth round is probably projecting a significant tapering off of performance over the next few months.  

He's currently ranked 349 in Yahoo.  Given his call-up date and lack of at-bats, that's truly remarkable.  When you realize he's done it with zero stolen bases it's even more surprising.  The list of relatively high draft players who have been out there all year and are being passed by Yordan is surprisingly long.  

Edited by Overlord
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In my points league, which has pretty standard scoring, he has the 6th most PPG for all hitters:

Yelich - 6.3

Trout - 6.1

Bellinger - 6.1

Rendon - 5.8

Springer - 5.6

Y Alvarez - 5.5

Devers - 5.4

Betts - 5.3

Bogaerts - 5.2

F Freeman - 5.2

I doubt he can keep up that pace ROS but that’s some elite company.

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On 8/5/2019 at 6:54 PM, Von Hayes said:

In my points league, which has pretty standard scoring, he has the 6th most PPG for all hitters:

Yelich - 6.3

Trout - 6.1

Bellinger - 6.1

Rendon - 5.8

Springer - 5.6

Y Alvarez - 5.5

Devers - 5.4

Betts - 5.3

Bogaerts - 5.2

F Freeman - 5.2

I doubt he can keep up that pace ROS but that’s some elite company.

 

It’s looking more and more like he is going to keep up this pace as the season rolls along. 

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He hit that HR ball like it owed him money. 

 

If you listen closely, you can a actually hear the ball scream in pain.  

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He's a David Oriz clone.

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On 8/6/2019 at 10:39 PM, B&F said:

He's a David Oriz clone.

Big Yordi

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ROYdan

Yeah, I don't care if I stole the announcer's new name for him...

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6 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

ROYdan

Yeah, I don't care if I stole the announcer's new name for him...

 

Just hope he’s not ROIdan. JK 🙃

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1 minute ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Just hope he’s not ROIdan. JK 🙃

You're dead to me.  Maybe JK

😉

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