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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

You can talk all you want, just be mindful that pretty much everyone in the lineup had 3 hits that day against the Orioles. I'll return around around Sept 20ish and I'll either admit I was wrong or laugh at every single one of you that are gauging top30+ on 100-170 at bats

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Posted (edited)

Of course the league will try to adjust to get him out. However there are certain hitters that simply pass the “eye test”, ones that you know are special. This is one of those hitters. There is no doubt in my mind that once the league adjusts he will counter and make his own adjustments. This guy is a professional hitter in its truest form. 

Edited by Sonny_D

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15 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

You can talk all you want, just be mindful that pretty much everyone in the lineup had 3 hits that day against the Orioles. I'll return around around Sept 20ish and I'll either admit I was wrong or laugh at every single one of you that are gauging top30+ on 100-170 at bats

 

Yeah, and only one had 3 home runs. 

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I think there are going to be some disappointed keepers next year in ESPN leagues when they realize this guy is DH-only. Especially if they already have Nelson Cruz or something.

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2 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I think there are going to be some disappointed keepers next year in ESPN leagues when they realize this guy is DH-only. Especially if they already have Nelson Cruz or something.

If he keeps raking like he has been, i'll buy him a satin laced cushion for my DH spot.

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15 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I think there are going to be some disappointed keepers next year in ESPN leagues when they realize this guy is DH-only. Especially if they already have Nelson Cruz or something.

 

There have been a few (speculative) reports that they'll be working Alvarez and/or Tucker some at 1B in the off season.  So there's a chance he'll end up with some kind of position eligibility at some point. Probably not though.

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On 8/13/2019 at 1:40 PM, Fiveohnine said:

I think there are going to be some disappointed keepers next year in ESPN leagues when they realize this guy is DH-only. Especially if they already have Nelson Cruz or something.

does any one have his position history on hand? my league requires 20 starts at a given position for eligibility the next year. 

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12 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

does any one have his position history on hand? my league requires 20 starts at a given position for eligibility the next year. 

7 starts/8 total appearances in LF.  Otherwise it's been all DH.

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On 8/13/2019 at 11:40 AM, Fiveohnine said:

I think there are going to be some disappointed keepers next year in ESPN leagues when they realize this guy is DH-only. Especially if they already have Nelson Cruz or something.

You have to assume he will gain OF eligibility during the year considering it will only takes 10 appearances to gain it in ESPN. I’ll be keeping him and expecting him to have OF eligibility within 2 months next season. 

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I would rather him have OF eligibility, but if he's hitting 35+ bombs with a 300 average in one of the best lineups in baseball, it matters not as much as some will make it out to be.  Again, most importantly he's an elite hitter than what position he has. 

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18 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

Stud

 

But, but, but he doesn’t play OF. He sucks. 

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Good lord.  Redraft 2nd round ADP is looking more and more likely whether justified or not.

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Best hitter in mlb in his time there and I'm pretty sure he was the best milb hitter this year as well so if he keeps that pace he will not make it to the 3rd round next year, could go earlier

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I would rather him have OF eligibility, but if he's hitting 35+ bombs with a 300 average in one of the best lineups in baseball, it matters not as much as some will make it out to be.  Again, most importantly he's an elite hitter than what position he has. 

Exactly.  I'm sure everybody plays at least one or two players at UTIL.  Elite production there still helps you win leagues.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I would rather him have OF eligibility, but if he's hitting 35+ bombs with a 300 average ....

 

Why are you limiting him to first half numbers?

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On 8/17/2019 at 6:23 PM, brockpapersizer said:

I would rather him have OF eligibility, but if he's hitting 35+ bombs with a 300 average in one of the best lineups in baseball, it matters not as much as some will make it out to be.  Again, most importantly he's an elite hitter than what position he has. 

 

Well, Nelson Cruz is already doing that this year. I mean we basically agree, but that was also part of my point.

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Well, Nelson Cruz is already doing that this year. I mean we basically agree, but that was also part of my point.

 

If Nelson Cruz was in his early 20s with his projection he'd go a lot higher in drafts. Log of people don't want to be left holding the bag on Cruz and thus he's been a great value for years. Same with Ortiz at the end. Yordan might be better than Cruz now and is in a better lineup without fear of age dropoff. 

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35 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If Nelson Cruz was in his early 20s with his projection he'd go a lot higher in drafts. Log of people don't want to be left holding the bag on Cruz and thus he's been a great value for years. Same with Ortiz at the end. Yordan might be better than Cruz now and is in a better lineup without fear of age dropoff. 

Well, my point wasn't that one is better to own than the other either. It's just that it won't be possible to roster both in most leagues next year whereas it is this year. The same for any other DH only guy. Like say Khris Davis has a comeback year.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Well, my point wasn't that one is better to own than the other either. It's just that it won't be possible to roster both in most leagues next year whereas it is this year. The same for any other DH only guy. Like say Khris Davis has a comeback year.

 

I would rather have Yordan have OF than not, totally agree, there is a benefit there. But at the end of the day, you take him, you don't take any other DH and he hits those numbers, you won't be upset. You look at your draft in any league from this past year and you see good picks and everyone has a multiple if not a lot of bad picks (that were later replaced). Nelson Cruz's rate of being a good pick over a bad pick based on ADP has been great for nearly a decade. He's in rare company honestly.

People will point to ADP of guys like Cruz and say they are less valuable dynasty assets because of DH only, but when guys routinely outproduce their ADP because people shy away from those guys (like Cruz and Ortiz), their ADP becomes irrelevant, and a buying opportunity if their owner in a dynasty league discounts them too much because of DH only.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I would rather have Yordan have OF than not, totally agree, there is a benefit there. But at the end of the day, you take him, you don't take any other DH and he hits those numbers, you won't be upset. You look at your draft in any league from this past year and you see good picks and everyone has a multiple if not a lot of bad picks (that were later replaced). Nelson Cruz's rate of being a good pick over a bad pick based on ADP has been great for nearly a decade. He's in rare company honestly.

People will point to ADP of guys like Cruz and say they are less valuable dynasty assets because of DH only, but when guys routinely outproduce their ADP because people shy away from those guys (like Cruz and Ortiz), their ADP becomes irrelevant, and a buying opportunity if their owner in a dynasty league discounts them too much because of DH only.

Right or wrong, I avoided Cruz for about the past 5 years because of his age.  That was a bigger deterrent to me than position eligibility.  Certainly won’t have that with a 21 year old.  At the same time, I can’t imagine the astros would pigeon hole Alvarez as a dH only at such a young age.  Maybe have him work on defense in the AFL or something, and of course I’m not privy to any astros insider information, but I’d expect him to gain a position in the near future.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

  Maybe have him work on defense in the AFL or something, and of course I’m not privy to any astros insider information, but I’d expect him to gain a position in the near future.

 

He's certainly not going to the AFL.   I think if you need 10 games in season from him to qualify, he'll qualify somewhere at some point next year, 1b or OF. Hard to predict when.

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