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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

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Just now, lavaman said:

Apparently you don't know how to read. Scroll up...

 

so in 2 years hes better than trout? lets just agree to disagree if that is your stance.

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

so in 2 years hes better than trout? lets just agree to disagree if that is your stance.

LOL

It's going to take more than two years to be mentioned in the same breath as Trout.

All I'm saying is this guy is something special and if he stays healthy, will be mentioned with the greats.

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6 hours ago, B&F said:

 

I am on the exact opposite side of that spectrum.  I have passed on Cruz every year due to age.  NO WAY I can take him a this point and be left with the "poop" bag.

Back to Alvarez.  It is to the point where Alvarez is going to being overvalued.

Haha..seems like I’ve been passing on Cruz since like 2012 because of age.  

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14 minutes ago, lavaman said:

LOL

It's going to take more than two years to be mentioned in the same breath as Trout.

All I'm saying is this guy is something special and if he stays healthy, will be mentioned with the greats.

How many “greats” would you say there’s past 10 years? Trout? Miggy? Pujols? (just barely qualifies) arenado?  It’s a very select group.  A few guys enter it for a few years, but i really have trouble thinking of many who have been great, year in, year out for like 6 or 7;years in a row.

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Even if Yordan were to put up Trout’s offensive production, a pure DH would never be considered anywhere near Trout, whose glove is among the best CFs in baseball.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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15 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Even if Yordan were to put up Trout’s offensive production, a pure DH would never be considered anywhere near Trout, whose glove is among the best CFs in baseball.

 

How many points do you get in your fantasy league per web gem? 

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Are you reading the thread? The point is that this guy will never be considered “great” on the level of Mike Trout even if he put up comparable offensive numbers, which itself is doubtful. 

Edited by Fiveohnine

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31 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Frant Thomas the only DH in the HoF

I think you're missing a few. Molitor, Rice, Edgar Mart... And what does that have to do with this thread? 🥴

Edited by MSkibisky
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There's a lot of youth hype in the league right now.  Guys like Acuna and Soto came onto the scene basically already elite, and now Alvarez, Bichette, Tatis, Alonso, etc are all running on those coat tails.  Truth is the majority of fantasy managers vastly overpay for youth.  Just look at JoRam who is only 25 years old and who is chopped liver after a bad half season.  For example, in CBS' 2020 first two rounds, Alvarez and JoRam are both listed in the "notable omissions," which is odd given that JoRam has had exactly one bad half over a number of years while Alvarez has had exactly one good half, period. 

Ultimately there will be someone in every league who reaches for guys like Alvarez and thereby makes the decision easy, as the question of where to draft him is taken away.  The real question is who slips due to people reaching.

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15 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

There's a lot of youth hype in the league right now.  Guys like Acuna and Soto came onto the scene basically already elite, and now Alvarez, Bichette, Tatis, Alonso, etc are all running on those coat tails.  Truth is the majority of fantasy managers vastly overpay for youth.  Just look at JoRam who is only 25 years old and who is chopped liver after a bad half season.  For example, in CBS' 2020 first two rounds, Alvarez and JoRam are both listed in the "notable omissions," which is odd given that JoRam has had exactly one bad half over a number of years while Alvarez has had exactly one good half, period. 

Ultimately there will be someone in every league who reaches for guys like Alvarez and thereby makes the decision easy, as the question of where to draft him is taken away.  The real question is who slips due to people reaching.

While I partly agree with this, owners also need to take into consideration the cost of potential floor vs. potential ceiling. Take JoRam, a guy I am very familiar with because I have owned him for years in many leagues. JoRam, when playing to his ceiling, is a top 3 fantasy player. Take last season for example. With the exception of a medicore BA (.270), he damn near went 40/35/105. I consider that his ceiling. What is he floor? Look at his first half this year - stinky, sure sure. Sure, he started to explode before getting hurt, but those are the risks owners take with guys like JoRam, with a history of playing at both ends of the spectrum. Personally, (and I am well aware there are owners who prefer consistency over waves of hot bats) I don't mind riding that wave of inconsistency, because when someone like JoRam is raking, I get to sit back and reap the benefits. When he isn't? I have no problem having him warm my bench or play to matchups. 

 

When I think of a guy like Yordan, I think the same thing - A guy who has the opportunity to play some of the season as one of the best hitters in baseball, however, I am well prepared for the sophomore slump. If it doesn't happen, great, I have a top 20 guy. If it does, thats okay too, his ceiling remains the same, he will just need to find it again. He is proving he can hit at a big league level, and while factors will affect him such as BABIP, HR/FB%, K%, and simply pitchers starting to figure out his weak spots, I think he has proved he can hit at this level in enough AB to be considered a "notable omission" if not in the first two rounds. In full disclosure, I plan on keeping JoRam, Yordan, AND Bo for those reasons. 

Edited by MSkibisky

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18 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

.  Just look at JoRam who is only 25 years old and who is chopped liver after a bad half season. 

 

Is he? He isn't.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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18 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Just look at JoRam who is only 25 years old and who is chopped liver after a bad half season.

 

13 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Is he? He isn't.

 

@ veritas - Second half splits

 

.327 13hr/40rbi/6sb in 41 games before injury. Sign me up for that chopped liver please.

Edited by MSkibisky
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18 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Ultimately there will be someone in every league who reaches for guys like Alvarez and thereby makes the decision easy, as the question of where to draft him is taken away.  The real question is who slips due to people reaching.

 

Ironically, probably Jose Ramirez. 

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Ironically, probably Jose Ramirez. 

the name that comes to mind for me is Harper. He is quietly putting up a huge year but will probably go 3rd/4th round next year. Definitely a name that Yordan will push down.

Edited by MSkibisky

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2 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

the name that comes to mind for me is Harper. He is quietly putting up a huge year but will probably go 3rd/4th round next year. Definitely a name that Yordan will push down.

 

dont know if id call it huge.  but i will def take harper a round or 2 after yordan if thats the case

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1 pinch hit AB.   Three run bomb.

I wouldn't fault someone taking this beast early in the 2nd round.

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9 hours ago, B&F said:

1 pinch hit AB.   Three run bomb.

I wouldn't fault someone taking this beast early in the 2nd round.

Me neither. Only those who are baseball ignorant will let him past the 2nd round period.

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Looks like I'm eating cro this past week with Yordy. 333/500 with a 5-3-5 line. The score is now tied 1-1. Two weeks to go. I would draft him mid 30's. There's just too many sure things for me to go earlier than that. Arenado might even slip to the end of round one. That's how rich the pool is.

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2nd round is way too early for a 2nd year DH-only hitter projected for 0-1 SBs. I mean I'm sure someone will take him there. But it won't be his ADP.

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June (16 GP): .317, 7 HR, 11 XBH, 21 RBI, 1.139 OPS, 13,0 BB%, 192 wRC+

July (21 GP): .333, 5 HR, 12 XBH, 15 RBI, 1.045 OPS, 11,6 BB%, 177 wRC+

August (27 GP): .309, 9 HR, 17 XBH, 26 RBI, 1.095, 17,5 BB%, 179 wRC+

September (18 GP): .348, 6 HR, 12 XBH, 15 RBI, 1.146 OPS, 11,8 BB%, 200 wRC+

He has been so incredibly consistent. That’s what impresses me the most.

Alvarez doesn’t have enough AB but he ranks first in wRC+ (186) and OPS (1.103)   when you look at all hitters with at least 300 PA. Despite being a DH, he has already put up a 4.0 fWAR in 82 GP. That would rank him slightly behind Freeman, Rizzo and Suarez and ahead of Torres, Altuve, JD Martinez, Marte, Pham, Machado and Goldschmidt.

Yea, this kid is good, 

 

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I know it doesn’t matter to Air Yordan...but his manager sees lefties on the bump 4 outta the next 5. What are the odds of that championship week???

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3 hours ago, bluntbros said:

I know it doesn’t matter to Air Yordan...but his manager sees lefties on the bump 4 outta the next 5. What are the odds of that championship week???

 

figures, and he sat yesterday. good stuff.

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10 hours ago, bluntbros said:

I know it doesn’t matter to Air Yordan...but his manager sees lefties on the bump 4 outta the next 5. What are the odds of that championship week???

 

6 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

figures, and he sat yesterday. good stuff.

I don't think it really matters who is pitching.  I'm taking last night as simply a day off, which is unfortunate, but I understand with the regular season winding down.  I expect him to be in there for the majority of the rest of the week, as he has no real difference in his lefty/righty splits.  Not sure where that concern came from.

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