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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

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Pretty obvious this kid is special, it’s not a hot streak or a sample space thing.  People doubting him are gonna miss the train next year.  The ball flies off his bat, the combination of power, plate discipline, youth and line up make him a  first round guy.  He is gonna absolutely terrorize the league next year.

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Highest SLG by a Rookie (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Rudy York (1937).

Highest OPS by a rookie (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Shoeless Joe Jackson (1911).

Highest wRC+ by a rookie (min 300 AB) since 1911 (Shoeless Joe Jackson). 

Highest fWAR by a rookie DH (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Eddie Murray (1977).

Yea, he had himself a pretty good rookie season. 

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Posted (edited)
On 10/1/2019 at 4:00 AM, Sine_cera said:

Highest SLG by a Rookie (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Rudy York (1937).

Highest OPS by a rookie (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Shoeless Joe Jackson (1911).

Highest wRC+ by a rookie (min 300 AB) since 1911 (Shoeless Joe Jackson). 

Highest fWAR by a rookie DH (min 300 AB) in MLB history, breaking the record held by Eddie Murray (1977).

Yea, he had himself a pretty good rookie season. 

 

in a year where brett gardner hit 28 hrs...

 

 

Edited by jfazz23

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

 

in a year where brett gardner hit 28 hrs

 

 

but hey, Khris Davis only hit 23. Your move :P

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Posted (edited)
On 9/25/2019 at 10:45 PM, jradMIT said:

Pretty obvious this kid is special, it’s not a hot streak or a sample space thing.  People doubting him are gonna miss the train next year.  The ball flies off his bat, the combination of power, plate discipline, youth and line up make him a  first round guy.  He is gonna absolutely terrorize the league next year.

 

i like him alot, but you are insane to take him in the first round.(redraft)

Edited by jfazz23

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i like him alot, but you are insane to take him in the first round.(redraft)

As much as i LOVE Yobomb.. i agree. Especially at DH only. In a redraft I would expect him 3rdish round. I'm keeping though.

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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

in a year where brett gardner hit 28 hrs...

 

 

Someone needs to create a juiced ball conversion model so we can type in the numbers from this year and see what they would've been in a year with a normal baseball.

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19 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Someone needs to create a juiced ball conversion model so we can type in the numbers from this year and see what they would've been in a year with a normal baseball.

 

nice idea.  problem is i dont think it effected (affected?) everyone equally.

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On 10/3/2019 at 4:00 PM, jfazz23 said:

 

i like him alot, but you are insane to take him in the first round.(redraft)

 

Nah. You should really state your league type when making a blanket statement like this.

In head to head, he's a first round pick. No different than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Ortiz back in the day. Sb's are too unpredictable, oh and you can punt that.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

Nah. You should really state your league type when making a blanket statement like this.

In head to head, he's a first round pick. No different than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Ortiz back in the day. Sb's are too unpredictable, oh and you can punt that.

 

in no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer

Edited by jfazz23
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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

in no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer

Actually i agree with him.  In a h2h where you go in punting sbs, i could see the pick easily. 

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9 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

in no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer

 

There is an argument to be made in OBP leagues.

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16 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Actually i agree with him.  In a h2h where you go in punting sbs, i could see the pick easily. 

The more people in a H2H who punt SB. The more impact they become to winning. Only play in one H2H, but the winner has always been one the leaders in SB. Why? Because they get a near automatic win in SB the vast majority of the year. Not 100%, but you can't build a H2H to win 100% of anything. 

Trea Turner has gone in the first round every-time and there is good reason for that in H2H. The weekly threshold to win that category is so so so low. Good luck trying to build that same advantage in HRs or any other hitting category. You'll have way too much competition to reasonably win that more than 2/3rds of the time.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

The more people in a H2H who punt SB. The more impact they become to winning. Only play in one H2H, but the winner has always been one the leaders in SB. Why? Because they get a near automatic win in SB the vast majority of the year. Not 100%, but you can't build a H2H to win 100% of anything. 

Trea Turner has gone in the first round every-time and there is good reason for that in H2H. The weekly threshold to win that category is so so so low. Good luck trying to build that same advantage in HRs or any other hitting category. You'll have way too much competition to reasonably win that more than 2/3rds of the time.

 

 

Im sorry but after a decade plus of h2h this just isn't true.  For one,  in h2h the majority of your sbs are wasted efforts anyway,  as you only need to win by one.  And for two,  i can't remember how many league winners I've seen who punt sbs in h2h. 

 

One doesn't HAVE to punt them,  but its a perfectly viable strategy that's stood the test of time for the format. 

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To me, it's more about the lack of track record than the lack of SBs or lack of defensive versatility.  If you project out his per-game 2019 production, then he definitely gets a late first round valuation, but as great as he's been, and as legit as it looks, I prefer a high floor approach in the early rounds, and I think a lot of other fantasy players do as well.  Plenty of blue chip prospects have had great rookie seasons and failed to replicate it in their second year.  The guys you'd have to push out of the first round to make room for him are right there with him in points per game (or player rater ranking) but have generally done it for longer.

And let's remember that this discussion started not with "should people draft him in the first?" but "will he have a first round ADP?".  The market matters, and the market in early mocks shows that he's a mid third rounder.  That's a lot of names to jump over to get to the back end of the first round.

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10 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

To me, it's more about the lack of track record than the lack of SBs or lack of defensive versatility.  If you project out his per-game 2019 production, then he definitely gets a late first round valuation, but as great as he's been, and as legit as it looks, I prefer a high floor approach in the early rounds, and I think a lot of other fantasy players do as well.  Plenty of blue chip prospects have had great rookie seasons and failed to replicate it in their second year.  The guys you'd have to push out of the first round to make room for him are right there with him in points per game (or player rater ranking) but have generally done it for longer.

And let's remember that this discussion started not with "should people draft him in the first?" but "will he have a first round ADP?".  The market matters, and the market in early mocks shows that he's a mid third rounder.  That's a lot of names to jump over to get to the back end of the first round.

 

While the discussion may have started with "will he have a first round ADP?" we've had comments such as "in no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer".

 

 

 

 

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Yeah, I took that to mean "in no standard format" -- hence the 30 teamer caveat. Obviously in some leagues people are going to plant their flag on Yordan early, and he's certainly got as much upside as anyone else at the back end of the 1st, so it's not crazy. But even if you like him as a first rounder, just from a game theory perspective, you have to see if you can get him in the 2nd, don't you? Is there another guy in your league who's going to take the plunge that early? 

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There are millions of fantasy drafts/leagues every season. So it’s pretty obvious someone will take Yordan Alvarez in the first round in at least one of them. You could probably say the same for just about anyone with a sub-100 ADP. So that discussion is pointless. 
 

In fact, it’s almost equally pointless to discuss whether a DH-only player with 300 career ABs will have a first round ADP.

He won’t.

Even if you think he’s a first ballot HOF’er you’d have to value him even higher to justify jumping that early on a guy whose market value is so much lower than the pick you use on him. 

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35 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

In fact, it’s almost equally pointless to discuss whether a DH-only player with 300 career ABs will have a first round ADP.

He won’t.

thissssssssssss

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On 10/3/2019 at 5:29 PM, meh2 said:

Someone needs to create a juiced ball conversion model so we can type in the numbers from this year and see what they would've been in a year with a normal baseball.

Gardner would have negative 3 homers

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, I took that to mean "in no standard format" -- hence the 30 teamer caveat. Obviously in some leagues people are going to plant their flag on Yordan early, and he's certainly got as much upside as anyone else at the back end of the 1st, so it's not crazy. But even if you like him as a first rounder, just from a game theory perspective, you have to see if you can get him in the 2nd, don't you? Is there another guy in your league who's going to take the plunge that early? 

 

He literally said "in no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer".  In OBP leagues he is arguably a top 150-20 player preseason. The 30 team caveat is silly.

Anthony Rendon was the #9 player on the player rater in OBP leagues.

.412 OBP

117 runs

34 home runs

126 rbis

5 sb

 

Yordan Alvarez had a rookie 155 game pace of

.413 OBP

104 runs

48 home runs

140 rbi

0 sb

 

 

Of course there is risk with Alvarez because he only did it in the big leagues for a half of a season, but there's also upside because he did it as a 22 year old rookie.

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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15 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

There are millions of fantasy drafts/leagues every season. So it’s pretty obvious someone will take Yordan Alvarez in the first round in at least one of them. You could probably say the same for just about anyone with a sub-100 ADP. So that discussion is pointless. 
 

In fact, it’s almost equally pointless to discuss whether a DH-only player with 300 career ABs will have a first round ADP.

He won’t.

Even if you think he’s a first ballot HOF’er you’d have to value him even higher to justify jumping that early on a guy whose market value is so much lower than the pick you use on him. 


If you don't like these "pointless discussions" you should direct some of your response to both sides of it. "In no league is he a first round pick unless you play in a 30 teamer". So in a 28 team OBP league Alvarez isn't worth a first round pick? Come on, now. There's a reasonable middle ground between those saying Alvarez is a 1st round pick and saying he isn't worth a top 28 pick.

 

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Nerd Alert: 

I ran z-scores for all hitters that had 300 plate apperances. When I normalized all scores for 600 PA (i.e. basically what a players value was per PA x 600), Air Yordan was #5 between Acuna and tatis.  

We use OBP though, and I cut the list off at about 215 players just because the guys after that weren't really viable at all this season.

The only true knock on him is that he will at least start next year as utility/DH only in most leagues. 

Edited by 2ndCitySox
Clarity on my data set
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Yordan has been EXPOSED this yankee series

 

im telling you again. do NOT take this guy in the first 2 rounds.  probably not 3rd round either

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On 10/13/2019 at 9:39 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

Nerd Alert: 

I ran z-scores for all hitters that had 300 plate apperances. When I normalized all scores for 600 PA (i.e. basically what a players value was per PA x 600), Air Yordan was #5 between Acuna and tatis.  

We use OBP though, and I cut the list off at about 215 players just because the guys after that weren't really viable at all this season.

The only true knock on him is that he will at least start next year as utility/DH only in most leagues. 

Yeah. On a per game basis he was stud last year. There are a ton of example of mid-season call up guys who don't sniff their rookie year per game production the very next year. Of all talent levels. So i prefer to avoid per game metrics for mid-season rookies. IMO.

Touched on this last year, but its a combination of counter adjusting to him and the fact April and May are least favorable months for established hitters. 

He's very talented, but saying he isn't an 1st rounder in any re-draft format is a more then fair assessment. Regardless how you weigh SB value.

Edited by Slatykamora
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