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THE BOARD! by FanGraphs- Updated Prospect List

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They hopefully are bearish on their ETA predictions - A lot of 2022's and even 2023's.  Three and four seasons from now seems pretty drastic - do they mean full time cemented into the starting line-up from ST with that time line?

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29 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

They hopefully are bearish on their ETA predictions - A lot of 2022's and even 2023's.  Three and four seasons from now seems pretty drastic - do they mean full time cemented into the starting line-up from ST with that time line?

I am nearly certain Kiley has said he does not like ETAs and puts little thought into them because there are so many factors that go into them...which I can see, we are all mostly guessing and no development is linear...then toss in all the economic team manipulations and it's frustrating.

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haha, Yordan Alvarez didn't even make their top 60

 

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No Dylan Carlson or Grayson Rodriguez.  Very adamantly disagree with both of those decisions. 

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Yordan sucks defensively.  Fangraphs isn't doing a fantasy baseball top 100.  They are doing a baseball top 100.  The fact that Yordan is basically stuck at DH (or atrocious fielder) his entire career limits his value.

I agree that both Grayson Rodriguez and Dylan Carlson should be in the top 100.  They are both just outside (Carlson is 101; Rodriguez is 102).

But I'd think both should be much higher.

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Posted (edited)

maybe i misunderstand how raw and game power work, but i find it quirky that andrew vaughn has 65/65 game power and 45/60 raw power. surely these are accidentally swapped, right?

edit: if it's an accident, there are more than one. luis urias 40/45 game, 20/35 raw, but not all of them.

Edited by osb_tensor

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

No Dylan Carlson or Grayson Rodriguez.  Very adamantly disagree with both of those decisions. 

Both are there. They have the same FV grade as the back half of the top 100. Not sure why you dis-agree when's obviously extremely subjective when deciding which 50 grade prospects should be ahead of others.

Numerical rankings tend to not matter in general after the top 20-30. As talent level difference merges after the elite.

 

Edit: they are 101 and 102. Not really a big deal when its the same FV grade as the 45th best prospect.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Posted (edited)

Keibert Ruiz is #13.  They are obviously big believers.  I know it's not a 'fantasy list', but that is still a fairly ringing endorsement.

They have also kept Chisholm pretty high regardless of his K rate.

Edited by BigPapi44

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11 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

maybe i misunderstand how raw and game power work, but i find it quirky that andrew vaughn has 65/65 game power and 45/60 raw power. surely these are accidentally swapped, right?

edit: if it's an accident, there are more than one. luis urias 40/45 game, 20/35 raw, but not all of them.

 

In both cases their insane hit ability and ability to square up the baseball allows them to hit more homers than you would expect just watching batting practice. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, The Man said:

Yordan sucks defensively.  Fangraphs isn't doing a fantasy baseball top 100.  They are doing a baseball top 100.  The fact that Yordan is basically stuck at DH (or atrocious fielder) his entire career limits his value.

Why?  What "fans" look at this stuff other than "fan"tasy players?  Do they think Non-Fantasy Playing Joe Six Pack finishes mowing the lawn and then kicks back and reads their site for s--- and giggles?  Or "real" GM's get up every morning and look for inspiration from them?  Why would anyone ever go to their site at all unless they were under the belief it is a site to help them in "fan"tasy baseball? ... I am not a "fan" of this site.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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They’re still selling Wander short on his FV with the bat. He’s at least a 70 without a doubt. His combo of contact skills, ability to make hard contact consistently, and ability to have more walks than strikeouts is hardly ever seen in an 18 year old.

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1 hour ago, killa3312 said:

They’re still selling Wander short on his FV with the bat. He’s at least a 70 without a doubt. His combo of contact skills, ability to make hard contact consistently, and ability to have more walks than strikeouts is hardly ever seen in an 18 year old.

 

They have him (a single A hitter) ranked ahead of Fernando Tatis (who has a 151 WRC+ in the majors). Gives him a 15 point higher hit tool and just 5 lower on the power than Tatis.

 

This is not selling him low IMO.  He's literally their #1 prospect.  I think disagreeing 5 points or so on a hit tool is not really disagreeing.  He has a 70 FV overall. I'm not sure a 65 FV hit tool is anything to be that disappointed with. That's still very high.

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9 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

They have him (a single A hitter) ranked ahead of Fernando Tatis (who has a 151 WRC+ in the majors). Gives him a 15 point higher hit tool and just 5 lower on the power than Tatis.

 

This is not selling him low IMO.  He's literally their #1 prospect.  I think disagreeing 5 points or so on a hit tool is not really disagreeing.  He has a 70 FV overall. I'm not sure a 65 FV hit tool is anything to be that disappointed with. That's still very high.

 

What have you seen from Franco that would cap his hit tool at 65?

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

What have you seen from Franco that would cap his hit tool at 65?

 

My thoughts exactly. A 65 rating is a very good, all-star caliber hitter but Franco has the potential to be so much more than just that. A 65 just seems to be selling him short.

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34 minutes ago, killa3312 said:

 

My thoughts exactly. A 65 rating is a very good, all-star caliber hitter but Franco has the potential to be so much more than just that. A 65 just seems to be selling him short.

 

It basically comes down to this: If Franco's hit tool isn't FV 70, then what is?

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

What have you seen from Franco that would cap his hit tool at 65?

 

I have seen his fangraphs page and a couple of videos posted on twitter here and there. I'm not a professional scout.

Caps change. It's not permanent. You can't give everyone a high grade just because they might get there. I guess I'd give him a 70 FV, but again this is 5 imaginary pointless points. 

 

Heading into 2018 Vlad's highest level was A+ (higher than Wander Franco currently) and he was a 65 FV hit tool.  They bumped it to 70 eventually. Maybe they just want to see it at a higher level first.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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On 6/14/2019 at 10:35 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Why?  What "fans" look at this stuff other than "fan"tasy players?  Do they think Non-Fantasy Playing Joe Six Pack finishes mowing the lawn and then kicks back and reads their site for s--- and giggles?  Or "real" GM's get up every morning and look for inspiration from them?  Why would anyone ever go to their site at all unless they were under the belief it is a site to help them in "fan"tasy baseball? ... I am not a "fan" of this site.

Believe it or not there is a huge population of people who do it because they love baseball, their team and prospects.  There is a forum called the sons of sam horn that has been around forever that was set up to discuss red sox prospects.  No fantasy angle there just baseball fans.

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28 minutes ago, adwilk1231 said:

Believe it or not there is a huge population of people who do it because they love baseball, their team and prospects.  There is a forum called the sons of sam horn that has been around forever that was set up to discuss red sox prospects.  No fantasy angle there just baseball fans.

Besides that, the fantasy community has biases and always assumes that good-hitting weak-fielding prospects will be given 400 AB's to figure things out at the Major League level. It's nice to get the full picture from Fangraphs and the like, so you can realistically make your own guess at their eventual position, chances of a call-up, and leash once they get there. In reality, prospects almost never get the leash we think they will and the non-fantasy skills tend to play a big part in that.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, adwilk1231 said:

Believe it or not there is a huge population of people who do it because they love baseball, their team and prospects.  There is a forum called the sons of sam horn that has been around forever that was set up to discuss red sox prospects.  No fantasy angle there just baseball fans.

One lone board online?  I rest my case.   And I bet these guys play fantasy baseball too but don't discuss it on "the board".  And this "the sons of sam horn" board must be "bored" out of their trees the last few years given how bad the Sox farm system is.  They all probably walk around with voodoo dolls of Dave Dombrowski full of pins, haha.  (And even John Henry who basically gave Dombrowski his marching orders to go out and win now so bye-bye farm).

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

One lone board online?  I rest my case.   And I bet these guys play fantasy baseball too but don't discuss it on "the board".  And this "the sons of sam horn" board must be "bored" out of their trees the last few years given how bad the Sox farm system is.  They all probably walk around with voodoo dolls of Dave Dombrowski full of pins, haha.  (And even John Henry who basically gave Dombrowski his marching orders to go out and win now so bye-bye farm).

 

It's not one board it is one teams board and it has been around for much much longer than dynasty leagues.  I'm sure their are equivalents for the dodgers and yankees and other teams.  Believe it or not people were interested in prospects before fantasy baseball.  I used to look at the minor league box scores every day when I was a kid.  I remember telling my friends about a kid coming up to take John Valentin's SS job named Nomar Garciaparra.  Of course I also told them about Phil Plantier......

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, adwilk1231 said:

It's not one board it is one teams board and it has been around for much much longer than dynasty leagues.  I'm sure their are equivalents for the dodgers and yankees and other teams.  Believe it or not people were interested in prospects before fantasy baseball.  I used to look at the minor league box scores every day when I was a kid.  I remember telling my friends about a kid coming up to take John Valentin's SS job named Nomar Garciaparra.  Of course I also told them about Phil Plantier......

But my point is in these days -- not days of yore -- people interested in prospects or baseball in general enough to read forums like this usually play fantasy baseball as well.  Why wouldn't they in this day and age of the internet and every other person they know interested in baseball playing fantasy ball as well.  I mean you are a perfect example yourself. 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But my point is in these days -- not days of yore -- people interested in prospects or baseball in general enough to read forums like this usually play fantasy baseball as well.  Why wouldn't they in this day and age of the internet and every other person they know interested in baseball playing fantasy ball as well.  I mean you are a perfect example yourself. 

 

Some sites cater directly to fantasy players.  Others are more tied into established baseball and see it through that lens.  I think all of the lists have certain bias built in.  Your job is to take that info and and make adjustments for your needs.  

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4 minutes ago, adwilk1231 said:

 

Some sites cater directly to fantasy players.  Others are more tied into established baseball and see it through that lens.  I think all of the lists have certain bias built in.  Your job is to take that info and and make adjustments for your needs.  

 

My main problem with some fantasy prospect rankings is they overvalue steals, and dont factor in if a player can hit well enough for his steals to end up mattering. 

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