Trench Mob

Zion Williamson 2019-2020 Season Outlook

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Strengths: literally every muscle in his body

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Posted (edited)

Look I've three-peated in my money league by drafting smart & safe & boring year after year...  NOW even if it means I won't win 4 str8 I HAVE TO OWN ZION. I'm all in late 2nd - early 3rd round !

Cheers ! 
🍹

Edited by Stefan

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I'm gonna reach for this guy on draft day. Normally I like to play it conservative too but dammit Zion is just too much fun to not have on your squad. Also, he just seems like a really good kid.

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I'm going to take the contrarian point of view and say that Zion will win more slam dunk contests than All-NBA honors.  I know this is a highly unpopular take, but here is my logic:

 

1) At 19, the guy weighs 285 pounds.  He plays like a small forward, and I don't think that frame can support the athletic style.  His weight will only go up as he gets older and his body continues to mature, and that could lead to injury problems unless he drastically alters his style of play.  Shaquille O'Neal had similar size and traits, but was a far worse shooter.  But Shaquille O'Neal was nearly unstoppable in the post.  Zion has no post game, he works off the dribble or the run.  That will have to completely change in the NBA for him to be a perennial All-star.  

2) He didn't even average 9 boards per game in college, playing against babies nearly half his size.  This is alarming to me, because with his athleticism size and strength he should have slept-walked to double-digits.

3) I believe his skills are vastly over-rated and he's very undisciplined defensively.  As mentioned, he's not a rebounder, whether that is skill or desire.  He can block shots, but often times puts the defense in bad positions going for highlight blocks where a simple pump on the outside turns it into a 5 on 4.  He's powerful and can jump, but so can everyone in the NBA, maybe not the combined package like Zion, but offensively he doesn't really have a top level skill set to fall back on if he can't bulldoze his way to the hoop or get an alley oop.  He's a pretty good dribbler for 285 pounds.  He's pretty quick for 285 pounds.  He has a pretty good first step.  Is not a spot up shooter, and is a decent shooter off the dribble.  He's shown some passing ability, but always off the dribble and not in the post.

4) Duke was awful in the NCAA Tournament, and had the #1, #3, and #10 pick in the NBA Draft.  They essentially were the Golden State Warriors of the NCAA and nearly lost to UCF, Virginia Tech, and got beat by a far inferior Michigan State team.  Is it possible that one (Zion) or some combination of these 3 players are given more credit than they deserve?

 

**In closing, I predict Zion's career to be similar to Shawn Kemp, including the fade to oblivion when he loses control of his weight.  From a Fantasy perspective, his usage will be off the charts on a crappy Pelicans team that will probably lose 55 games, so he could very well end up averaging 20 Pts, 7 Boards, and 3 Assists out of the gate, but I don't know if there is much upside from that in the future with his style of play unless he develops a post game.  He WILL be 300 pounds soon.

 

 

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1 hour ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

I'm going to take the contrarian point of view and say that Zion will win more slam dunk contests than All-NBA honors.  I know this is a highly unpopular take, but here is my logic:

 

1) At 19, the guy weighs 285 pounds.  He plays like a small forward, and I don't think that frame can support the athletic style.  His weight will only go up as he gets older and his body continues to mature, and that could lead to injury problems unless he drastically alters his style of play.  Shaquille O'Neal had similar size and traits, but was a far worse shooter.  But Shaquille O'Neal was nearly unstoppable in the post.  Zion has no post game, he works off the dribble or the run.  That will have to completely change in the NBA for him to be a perennial All-star.  

2) He didn't even average 9 boards per game in college, playing against babies nearly half his size.  This is alarming to me, because with his athleticism size and strength he should have slept-walked to double-digits.

3) I believe his skills are vastly over-rated and he's very undisciplined defensively.  As mentioned, he's not a rebounder, whether that is skill or desire.  He can block shots, but often times puts the defense in bad positions going for highlight blocks where a simple pump on the outside turns it into a 5 on 4.  He's powerful and can jump, but so can everyone in the NBA, maybe not the combined package like Zion, but offensively he doesn't really have a top level skill set to fall back on if he can't bulldoze his way to the hoop or get an alley oop.  He's a pretty good dribbler for 285 pounds.  He's pretty quick for 285 pounds.  He has a pretty good first step.  Is not a spot up shooter, and is a decent shooter off the dribble.  He's shown some passing ability, but always off the dribble and not in the post.

4) Duke was awful in the NCAA Tournament, and had the #1, #3, and #10 pick in the NBA Draft.  They essentially were the Golden State Warriors of the NCAA and nearly lost to UCF, Virginia Tech, and got beat by a far inferior Michigan State team.  Is it possible that one (Zion) or some combination of these 3 players are given more credit than they deserve?

 

**In closing, I predict Zion's career to be similar to Shawn Kemp, including the fade to oblivion when he loses control of his weight.  From a Fantasy perspective, his usage will be off the charts on a crappy Pelicans team that will probably lose 55 games, so he could very well end up averaging 20 Pts, 7 Boards, and 3 Assists out of the gate, but I don't know if there is much upside from that in the future with his style of play unless he develops a post game.  He WILL be 300 pounds soon.

 

 

I agree basically with everything you said. His bust potential could be on a Michal Olowakandi, Kawame Brown level when we look back at him 20 years from now.

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I applaud the contrarian take, @The_Truth_Returns

A few things:

Shawn Kemp... had a helluva career. So if you think that's as bad as it gets, well, that ain't bad at all! I can't go with him being an all-time bust, though, as @Code of Hammurabi says, though. I think Kemp is a pretty realistic prediction about his career. They aren't the same player in significant ways, but they do have some similarities. Still: If you put what they accomplish in their careers at the end and say "Zion wasn't better than Kemp," that is still very nice.

Rebounds... There's a Ringer article about him putting up crazy numbers -- including rebounds -- in fewer minutes than some past great players averaged. He eventually got up to an even 30 by end of the season, but that's not even in the top 250 (and much much more, probably -- that's as far as I could go on that ranking) in the NCAA last year.

Post game... disagree. He's got a lot of moves down there. Not a lot of traditional stuff like hook shots, but this analysis explains and shows pretty well, methinks, that he's a good post scorer.

Defense... The desire is there big time. Maybe too much, thus the tendency to hunt for big blocks. That's not a flaw that can't be fixed. He's a lot better defensively than a lotta guys coming out of college, and he has the tools and interest, so he's well ahead.

Can't bulldoze... Giannis is the most recent to show that you can, which is NOT AT ALL to say Zion is as good as one of the best few players in the league today, or that he ever can be.

Where I agree with you: He very well might get fat like Kemp, because of his body type, but he seems more determined (for now) than Kemp, with no sign of off-court issues. He WILL run significant injury risks because of the playstyle he currently has, and will need to diversify it with improved shooting.

Where I'm not sure I agree with you: No idea what to make of Duke in the tourney. They weren't "awful" because they made it to the Elite Eight, but they seemed to underachieve and skate into said Elite Eight (and lost to a Michigan State team that beat superior squads besides Duke). I don't know whose fault that was. Chemistry from Zion's return? Reddish's injury? Zion's numbers looked similar per game. It does raise questions, I'll give you that.

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On 6/20/2019 at 5:48 AM, Stefan said:

Look I've three-peated in my money league by drafting smart & safe & boring year after year...  NOW even if it means I won't win 4 str8 I HAVE TO OWN ZION. I'm all in late 2nd - early 3rd round !

Cheers ! 
🍹

 

On 6/20/2019 at 11:45 PM, fabrar said:

I'm gonna reach for this guy on draft day. Normally I like to play it conservative too but dammit Zion is just too much fun to not have on your squad. Also, he just seems like a really good kid.

Idkk this seems risky

65% ft , 0.3 3pointers and 2assists won’t cut it.

he has to average like 18ppg , 8.5 rebounds and 3.0stocks to be a top 20-30 contributor 

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Posted (edited)

Although i like the kid, the hype based on athletiticsm is just unbelievable..

Luka was a waaaay skilled player than Zion when entering the league, and sorry, in his first season no way I can see Zion:

1. Staying healthy

2. Be a top 50 (even 75) fantasy player.

No threys, bad FT and probably high TO rate.. Must collect stocks at Mitchell robinson level to be considered as top 30 player but with his body, I dont see it coming.

Maybe in few years when he develops a jumper but in his first season - no way..

 

Edited by Akauders
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I just read the RW blurb on him and the blurb writer said, " At this point, it feels like there's no chance Zion will make it out of the second round of a standard league, and he makes a case to go in the first, as well.

To me, that's sheer insanity.  I'm not sure how anyone could see a 1st or 2nd round value from a guy who will be an efficiency nightmare and probably average under 1 3PM a game.

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1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

I just read the RW blurb on him and the blurb writer said, " At this point, it feels like there's no chance Zion will make it out of the second round of a standard league, and he makes a case to go in the first, as well.

To me, that's sheer insanity.  I'm not sure how anyone could see a 1st or 2nd round value from a guy who will be an efficiency nightmare and probably average under 1 3PM a game.

 

Concur. I bet some people reach for him there, though. Should he make it out of the second round? Yes. He still might not.

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As a rookie, I don't think he will be a great fantasy player. First or second round seems ridiculous. But he should be good. He could put up Julius Randle type stats (~ rank 80) and easily win the ROY, but as we all know those awards are based on popcorn stats and are not the same as fantasy impact. As others have mentioned, he will have a large negative impact in at least two categories: FT% and 3PM. Probably TO and AST will be low. I probably won't end up with him because someone else will overvalue him.

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Posted (edited)

Normally, I'd shy away from the over-hyped, early-round rookie by default, a category which Zion would seemingly fall into. That being said, I don't think it's impossible for him to be a 2nd-round value this season. The problem is, I think it's much more likely he underperforms that valuation than meets or exceeds it.

It really all comes down to the defensive stats. They should be good at a minimum (let's say, 2.5+ stocks), but for him to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere (3PM, AST, FT%) they need to be Giannise-esque. The FG% will be good, but I'm not confident it's going to be great off the bat as he adjusts to life in the NBA, even if many of his shots would come around the rim.

For a guy who only averaged 30mpg in college to go to 34mpg on a fast-pace squad and who is expected to be a strong contributor on both sides of the ball, I can see fatigue also being an issue at some point. That would be a problem for a guy who will need his strength to handle contact in the paint.

Plus, if you're going to draft him, you'll probably want to be punting FT% given his expected high volume of attempts from the line. While I think there's a good chance he can get his FT% up to more acceptable levels in the future, I doubt that happens next season. And since I'm not really a punt FT% guy, I doubt I'll be taking him.

Anyway, it's basically a moot point because even if I would warm up to the idea of taking Zion early, it won't be early enough to beat out the crazies who take him late-1st.

Edited by shadowmoses
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Posted (edited)
On 6/22/2019 at 7:09 PM, El_Chingon said:

I just read the RW blurb on him and the blurb writer said, " At this point, it feels like there's no chance Zion will make it out of the second round of a standard league, and he makes a case to go in the first, as well.

To me, that's sheer insanity.  I'm not sure how anyone could see a 1st or 2nd round value from a guy who will be an efficiency nightmare and probably average under 1 3PM a game.

Did you catch this article https://www.rotoworld.com/article/draft-analysis/zion-williamson-fantasy-basketball-preview Guy has him at #12 behind guys like Embiid and Beal. 

The hype is unreal on Zion. He wont make it out of the middle 2nd round in any leagues we play in. Esp after last years rookie class. Hes going to be the most hyped rookie ever. 

I already know i wont be touching him. Give me a safe lock in the 2nd round. Someone else can own the "fun player".

Edited by buzzkilloton

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Will shoot a low FT%, will have a high amount of TOs, probably won't hit many 3s, don't think he get many assists. For a 2nd round price tag? Hard pass. Doesn't take away from my long term view on him but definitely passing on him at the moment.

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Per usual Gallagher is aggressively pushing his guys.  While his numbers regarding TS% and usage are compelling, he's forgetting a few key things.  I can foresee him getting 18/9/3 and 1.5/1.5/1 with 50% FG.  But he's likely to only shoot 65% from the line and rookies are typically turnover prone, ala 3.0 TO per game.  His most similar comp is Ben Simmons, perhaps with another half block, and Zion can actually hit threes.  Probably under 100 for the season, but more than 0.  However, he should have fewer assists.  Simmons was a popular pick around the turn last year, the same place Zion is projected this season, and he finished barely inside the top 75.  I think Zion can be a little better, maybe top 50, but I think rookies are capped in redraft by their propensity to commit TO not to mention his other weaknesses.

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I think this is the year that the hype is lived up to by the rookie. Gentry has already said that Zion has the green light and will let him shoot as much as he wants. Then surrounding him with low usage low maintenance players like lonzo jrue ingram that all can pass and play defence (if ingram tries), i think will only help his game more. He has all the opportunity to be a star in his first year and the only thing stopping him is his efficiencies. If he can be a 35%+ 3pt shooter he should be able to hit 1 per game and all he needs to do then is improve his ft% and he should easily be a 2nd round value player. Gentry will allow him to free roam defensively which should translate to more stocks and also more fast break points. I think his stats comparison can be very similar to Doncic except swapping out some assists for a block and a half. Something around 22.5 points 7.4 rebounds 3.2 assists 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks 1.2 threes with 56 fg% 69 ft% and 34 3pt% is VERY realistic and easily 2nd round value. I know a lot of people are gonna say im crazy for suggesting this but come back at the end of the season and i reckon i wont be too far off.

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45 minutes ago, PaddyAustralia said:

I think this is the year that the hype is lived up to by the rookie. Gentry has already said that Zion has the green light and will let him shoot as much as he wants. Then surrounding him with low usage low maintenance players like lonzo jrue ingram that all can pass and play defence (if ingram tries), i think will only help his game more. He has all the opportunity to be a star in his first year and the only thing stopping him is his efficiencies. If he can be a 35%+ 3pt shooter he should be able to hit 1 per game and all he needs to do then is improve his ft% and he should easily be a 2nd round value player. Gentry will allow him to free roam defensively which should translate to more stocks and also more fast break points. I think his stats comparison can be very similar to Doncic except swapping out some assists for a block and a half. Something around 22.5 points 7.4 rebounds 3.2 assists 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks 1.2 threes with 56 fg% 69 ft% and 34 3pt% is VERY realistic and easily 2nd round value. I know a lot of people are gonna say im crazy for suggesting this but come back at the end of the season and i reckon i wont be too far off.

How many TO?  My assumptions are based on 9 cat roto rankings,  He might be second round value in 8 cat or in punt FT/To builds.

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

How many TO?  My assumptions are based on 9 cat roto rankings,  He might be second round value in 8 cat or in punt FT/To builds.

Ahh true, i play in leagues without t/o so thats what my assumptions are based off. I believe he will sit around 3 TO a game which isnt too bad for a rookie, but he is very disciplined so he shouldnt do anything too outlandish unless he is dunking the ball haha. If you are in a TO league late 2nd round is still his value i believe. With over 20 points a game and over 50% FG with near 3 stocks, its too good not to take. Could be the Oladipo of 2017-2018 season.

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i Would still take his teammate Jrue holiday over him , personally I wouldn’t touch Zion until the turn of the 4th round ( around pick 35 ). I’ll let someone else take the gamble

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20 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

Will shoot a low FT%, will have a high amount of TOs, probably won't hit many 3s, don't think he get many assists. For a 2nd round price tag? Hard pass. Doesn't take away from my long term view on him but definitely passing on him at the moment.

yea it doesn't make sense even with 20/10 and stocks if hes trash in ft and t/o doesn't seem possible to return 25 type line

 

he would have to be Drummond out the gate to be drafted as top 25 player. drums line 17/15/1 3.5 stocks 53% 59% 2.2 t/o 

doable but wont be doing it on my teams outside some very specific punts

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58 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea it doesn't make sense even with 20/10 and stocks if hes trash in ft and t/o doesn't seem possible to return 25 type line

 

he would have to be Drummond out the gate to be drafted as top 25 player. drums line 17/15/1 3.5 stocks 53% 59% 2.2 t/o 

doable but wont be doing it on my teams outside some very specific punts

I don't even think he gets to 20/10 his first season. No way he's putting up Drummond's 17/15 line. He won't be on my teams either. I don't hate the guy, I just think he's overhyped in fantasy this year. You'd have to be crazy to spend a 2nd rounder on this guy.

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

yea it doesn't make sense even with 20/10 and stocks if hes trash in ft and t/o doesn't seem possible to return 25 type line

 

he would have to be Drummond out the gate to be drafted as top 25 player. drums line 17/15/1 3.5 stocks 53% 59% 2.2 t/o 

doable but wont be doing it on my teams outside some very specific punts

I agree with your conclusion but would use a different comp.  I don't think Zion's FT% impact will be nearly as bad as Drummond nor will Zion approach 15 rebs particularly because with DeAndre Jordan on the decline no one else in the league will even approach Drummond's rebs.  I like my Simmons comp or one could even say he's a poor man's Giannis.  A lot of Giannis's numbers are approachable for Zion but I'd predict he scores about 10 points less and gets fewer rebs/assists as well.  The St3cks are doable and the efficiency numbers will be pretty similar.  I think Zion will be better than say Ben Simmons.  People may not like this but I'd draft Zion in the same round as say Nurkic.  

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree with your conclusion but would use a different comp.  I don't think Zion's FT% impact will be nearly as bad as Drummond nor will Zion approach 15 rebs particularly because with DeAndre Jordan on the decline no one else in the league will even approach Drummond's rebs.  I like my Simmons comp or one could even say he's a poor man's Giannis.  A lot of Giannis's numbers are approachable for Zion but I'd predict he scores about 10 points less and gets fewer rebs/assists as well.  The St3cks are doable and the efficiency numbers will be pretty similar.  I think Zion will be better than say Ben Simmons.  People may not like this but I'd draft Zion in the same round as say Nurkic.  

Then u will not draft him at all 😋because Zion will be drafted at least 2 rounds before Nurk, early 3rd Round. Especially If he has some monster games in the preseason people will not hesitate to draft him at 2nd Round. 

Ayton didn't have a crazy rookie season but he almost finished with top30 value.. There is no doubt that people will reach for Zion.. 

Edited by x_Nemesis_x
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11 minutes ago, x_Nemesis_x said:

Then u will not draft him at all 😋because Zion will be drafted at least 2 rounds before Nurk, early 3rd Round. Especially If he has some monster games in the preseason people will not hesitate to draft him at 2nd Round.  

Ayton didn't have a crazy rookie season but he almost finished with top30 value.. There is no doubt that people will reach for Zion.. 

Zion will be gone in the second or in some leagues the turn of the 1st/2nd bc Mike Gallagher will hype him to the point where he cannot possibly live up to the hype.

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