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Zion Williamson 2019-2020 Season Outlook

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree with your conclusion but would use a different comp.  I don't think Zion's FT% impact will be nearly as bad as Drummond nor will Zion approach 15 rebs particularly because with DeAndre Jordan on the decline no one else in the league will even approach Drummond's rebs.  I like my Simmons comp or one could even say he's a poor man's Giannis.  A lot of Giannis's numbers are approachable for Zion but I'd predict he scores about 10 points less and gets fewer rebs/assists as well.  The St3cks are doable and the efficiency numbers will be pretty similar.  I think Zion will be better than say Ben Simmons.  People may not like this but I'd draft Zion in the same round as say Nurkic.  

 

imo the most likely comp is Julius Randle last season, with a few more stocks and slightly worse FT/TO

Randle: 22ppg, 9 reb, 3 ast, 0.9 3pm, 1.1 stocks, 53% fg, 73% ft (7 attempts), 2.8 to 

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On 6/23/2019 at 1:29 PM, StifleTower2 said:

Per usual Gallagher is aggressively pushing his guys.  While his numbers regarding TS% and usage are compelling, he's forgetting a few key things.  I can foresee him getting 18/9/3 and 1.5/1.5/1 with 50% FG.  But he's likely to only shoot 65% from the line and rookies are typically turnover prone, ala 3.0 TO per game.  His most similar comp is Ben Simmons, perhaps with another half block, and Zion can actually hit threes.  Probably under 100 for the season, but more than 0.  However, he should have fewer assists.  Simmons was a popular pick around the turn last year, the same place Zion is projected this season, and he finished barely inside the top 75.  I think Zion can be a little better, maybe top 50, but I think rookies are capped in redraft by their propensity to commit TO not to mention his other weaknesses.

 

Yup, he does this every year with the young guys he's in love with. He obviously knows his stuff, but I always make sure to take his rankings with a grain of salt, particularly when they involve young, unproven guys.

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People: What round are you looking to draft Zion ?

Me: Yes

aahahahha

 

 

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On 6/22/2019 at 2:02 AM, terribleswedes said:

I applaud the contrarian take, @The_Truth_Returns

A few things:

Shawn Kemp... had a helluva career. So if you think that's as bad as it gets, well, that ain't bad at all! I can't go with him being an all-time bust, though, as @Code of Hammurabi says, though. I think Kemp is a pretty realistic prediction about his career. They aren't the same player in significant ways, but they do have some similarities. Still: If you put what they accomplish in their careers at the end and say "Zion wasn't better than Kemp," that is still very nice.

You forgot to mention The Reign Man's off court achievements:

Quote

No. of kids / No. of baby mamas: 7 / 6

As we know, The Reign Man has a confirmed seven kids from six different women. If the rumors are true that the number is closer to 11 children by nine baby mamas, then this baller was officially racking up near double-doubles on and off the court. And yes, and this epic sonning officially added Alton Lister to Kemp's constantly growing number of children.

SOURCE: https://www.complex.com/sports/2014/06/athletes-with-the-most-children-by-the-most-women/shawn-kemp

Zion has a long way to go to reach Kemp's pantheon...

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11 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

He won’t even be better than his teammate jrue holiday next year ( fantasy wise )

 

could actually be closer than you think. Jrue's been top 25 the last few season, Zion could flirt with that in his rookie year.

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2 hours ago, n3gative said:

 

could actually be closer than you think. Jrue's been top 25 the last few season, Zion could flirt with that in his rookie year.

I agree Zion COULD be a top 20 candidate, but there’s also the possibility he’s a top 75 player. I’m not risking a 2nd round pick on somebody who can fall out of top 30 value yet alone top 75. 

I’ll take kemba/jrue/kyrie all day over Zion 

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With the ball handlers that the Pels have (Ball, Jrue) I dont think his TO will be that bad; As they will likely handle the offense, atleast early on in the season. 

If he can operate properly as a roll man for Jrue and Lonzo, then he COULD return top 30 value for a punt ft team at the very least.

Something like 19ppg (50% fg, 70% ft), 8 rpg, 3 apg, 2+stocks and 2.8 TO is realistic, especially since Gentry likes to push the pace and is a great offensive coach.

but I think the main factors that may cap his ceiling, are:

1) Ingram, who may fancy himself as the go to

2) Some of the shots he could pull off in college will get swatted in the next level. 3) The concerns about his durability, given his style of play + adjusting to an 82 game season are also valid.

He could be a nice value pick in the 50s (or earlier if u punt his weak cats), but he isnt a top 25 guy this season IMO

 

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On 6/20/2019 at 5:48 AM, Stefan said:

Look I've three-peated in my money league by drafting smart & safe & boring year after year...  NOW even if it means I won't win 4 str8 I HAVE TO OWN ZION. I'm all in late 2nd - early 3rd round !

Cheers ! 
🍹

 

You mean you have to govern Zion

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From a fantasy perspective I think he will be this year's Ben Simmons from last season. He's a dynamic player to watch and all the hype around him will make people draft him in the 2nd round but he'll end up finishing somewhere in the 60s on a per game average. 

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7 minutes ago, young_styler said:

From a fantasy perspective I think he will be this year's Ben Simmons from last season. He's a dynamic player to watch and all the hype around him will make people draft him in the 2nd round but he'll end up finishing somewhere in the 60s on a per game average. 

yup,people who will draft him in the 2nd to 3rd round will regret it at the end of season

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Posted (edited)
On 6/24/2019 at 5:28 AM, StifleTower2 said:

Zion will be gone in the second or in some leagues the turn of the 1st/2nd bc Mike Gallagher will hype him to the point where he cannot possibly live up to the hype.

 

Josh Lloyd also said his ceiling (for dynasty) is a top 3 fantasy player and possibly even #1 overall in a few years. 

Edited by hipriest69
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Posted (edited)

It would be interesting to pair him with Drummond and punt FT, giving you 2 of the top big men in steals (I wouldn't do this, but just seems interesting).  Or, in a similar draft scenario where you're picking at the back end, I'm wondering if Drummond/Simmons is a better pick in the 2nd than Zion b/c of the assists?  I haven't researched it yet so I'm sure what the rest of the team would look like, maybe Fox for assists and steals, then one of Porter, Covington, Hield as you try to make up 3's while boosting other stats.  Here are two initial off the top of my head scenarios...I don't like to punt 3 cats so I wouldn't take the first team.

 

Punting FT, Assists, and Points

(12) Drummond

(13) Zion

(36) Covington

(37) Porter

 

Punting FT, Points...If you're semi-punting points anyway, maybe drafting Draymond makes the most sense at 36/37, rather than Fox due to lower usage and less negative impact on FG.  This is a team I might consider in H2H, I'm too chicken to punt in roto.

(12) Drummond

(13) Simmons (in this case Simmons would work better than Zion)

(36) Draymond/Fox

(37) Porter/Covington/Hield  (warming to Hield in this scenario as you might say, I'm already stacked in stocks, so let's go with the player who will get the most 3's, but Covington would probably be my choice to just completely obliterate the league in stocks and not even have to think about it the rest of the way.)

Edited by hipriest69
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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Josh Lloyd also said his ceiling (for dynasty) is a top 3 fantasy player and possibly even #1 overall in a few years. 

I don't reasonably see how one can make that projection regarding a rookie we've never seen play in the NBA.  Now, I'm not saying he's wrong bc highly touted rookies have hit: LBJ, AD, KAT.   Others have missed.  The memory of guys such as Simmons being taken on the turn of the 1/2nd in too many of my dynasty leagues (not by me) is too much.  If you draft Curry/Harden/AD/KAT sure you're limited how long you can use them, but you might not even be in the league in five years.  If you draft Zion in the first round and he doesn't hit, you're ******.   

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Based on this first 9 minutes in SL - yeah, his shooting is really awful and if he doesn't somehow fix it until november, i really doubt he will even be a top 75 player this season.

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it was 9 mins of a summer league game so we should overreact of course.

definitely needs to drop some weight and work on his conditioning though.

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Due to volume and 55-65% FT shooting he will be a punt guy next year. With 30mpg I dont see anyway he shoots less than 6 FTs per game, and I'd bet he's closer to 10 attempts.

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On 7/6/2019 at 8:35 AM, n3gative said:

it was 9 mins of a summer league game so we should overreact of course.

definitely needs to drop some weight and work on his conditioning though.

Doncic started off last season as a dough boy too. I'd say zions first half of season rank will be around 80, but have a great 2nd half/final quarter. Come fantasy playoffs I see him very likely putting up top 30 stats. Either way I will hold on him until the 4th or 5th unless putting ft% (which I almost never do). Why take Zion when Myles Turners right there etc. 

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He definitely has top 20 upside IMO, but I don't think we see it this season (his FT% and 3PM will be the main issue).

People are going to be taking him in the 2nd or 3rd round, but I've got him projected to be a fringe top 50 player this season.

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I think his bad FT shooting on high attempts will be the biggest detriment to his overall value.

That alone makes it less likely hes even top 50

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You are crazy if you draft this guy in any non-dynasty setting this season. The level of hype pushes him out of the realms of viable value, and the amount of weight he is carrying, combined with the fact New Orleans is going to be exceptionally cautious with him and has no need to try and win now, make him a huge risk of 60- games.

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6 hours ago, JStyles said:

the amount of weight he is carrying

Do you mean physical or metaphorical?  haha

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