1972Miamidolphins

A.J. Green 2019 Outlook

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I checked the index and there was not a link.

 

We got vintage A.J.for roughly the first 9-10 weeks before a toe injury.  He's since had surgery and expects to be ready for camp.  With Zac Taylor in town and a contract year, could we be in line for another big vintage AJ season?

 

Hes early 3rd adp in a 14 teamer ppr, you could have him as part of your trio of an elite rb, choice of elite te, High End rb2/wr2, I think his price is pretty good this season

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He looks like about 15% ish in auctions now. Too rich for my blood. I don't trust him to stay healthy and the team is so dicey anyway.

Yet I am interested in Mixon lol

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I checked the index and there was not a link.

 

We got vintage A.J.for roughly the first 9-10 weeks before a toe injury.  He's since had surgery and expects to be ready for camp.  With Zac Taylor in town and a contract year, could we be in line for another big vintage AJ season?

 

Hes early 3rd adp in a 14 teamer ppr, you could have him as part of your trio of an elite rb, choice of elite te, High End rb2/wr2, I think his price is pretty good this season

I also like him at his current price, he's almost guaranteed to finish as a top-15 WR as long as he finishes the season.  The injuries are a bit concerning but not enough for me to stay away.

Edited by ZappB

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2 hours ago, ZappB said:

I also like him at his current price, he's almost guaranteed to finish as a top-15 WR as long as he finishes the season.  The injuries are a bit concerning but not enough for me to stay away.

Talent wise he could easily do around 1250 yard for next season, which is top 12, except:

- he will be 31

- he still has Andy Dalton

- Tyler Boyd proved serious competition last season

- new HC and OC. Although those have plenty experience coaching QBs, which should benefit Dalton, which should benefit AJ

- a dent in the O-line as of today (Jonah Williams)

- last but not least: in the past 5 seasons he missed in total 16 gamrs, which is a lot.

I put him at 1000 yd/6 TD, which means I'm out at his current ADP (WR13), and instead I'll be targeting Tyler Boyd as a sleeper (WR27).

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If he is cheap enough, I would love to have him on my team again in 2019.  Dude can ball.  31 does not scare me.

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If he is cheap enough, I would love to have him on my team again in 2019.  Dude can ball.  31 does not scare me.

 

Well what range is considered cheap enough for you?  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Well what range is considered cheap enough for you?  

Redraft around WR18, say 5th round; or auction under $20. Neither of those are going to happen.

Edited by Boudewijn

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6 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Redraft around WR18, say 5th round; or auction under $20. Neither of those are going to happen.

 

Egad man.....you're not even in the same stratosphere of hope.  I expect his services to be acquired in the 3rd round.

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Just now, theSPANKER said:

Egad man.....you're not even in the same stratosphere of hope.  I expect his services to be acquired in the 3rd round.

Yes yes, I made it clear I hope that I don't expect that to happen. But I think I also quoted why I think he won't get the 1250 he needs to be a borderline WR1 (which is where he's drafted).

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yes yes, I made it clear I hope that I don't expect that to happen. But I think I also quoted why I think he won't get the 1250 he needs to be a borderline WR1 (which is where he's drafted).

 

Yes indeed you did.  However isn't this quote a positive instead of a negative?  Not disagreeing with you.  His injury history does not compute with the amount of capital being invested in the 3rd round.

I want to see how he looks in the preseason. 

- new HC and OC. Although those have plenty experience coaching QBs, which should benefit Dalton, which should benefit AJ

 

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Why would Dalton be a detraction when Dalton has been the one who has given him his great seasons?

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5 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:
59 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

- new HC and OC. Although those have plenty experience coaching QBs, which should benefit Dalton, which should benefit AJ

However isn't this quote a positive instead of a negative? 

Yes it is. I should have made that clear by making it a + instead of a - but the evil mod overlords won't give me that power retroactively ;)

tenor.gif

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I paid $38 in 2018. $20 would be amazing but honestly I would probably go up to $28 depending on who was left.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Talent wise he could easily do around 1250 yard for next season, which is top 12, except:

- he will be 31

- he still has Andy Dalton

- Tyler Boyd proved serious competition last season

- new HC and OC. Although those have plenty experience coaching QBs, which should benefit Dalton, which should benefit AJ

- a dent in the O-line as of today (Jonah Williams)

- last but not least: in the past 5 seasons he missed in total 16 gamrs, which is a lot.

I put him at 1000 yd/6 TD, which means I'm out at his current ADP (WR13), and instead I'll be targeting Tyler Boyd as a sleeper (WR27).

Curious if you think Boyd just straight out performs both? If healthy, I’m hard pressed to believe AJG posts 1000/6

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My guess is 28 minimum in my auction league for this fella, and he probably gets into the low 30's.   He's not a guy I'm super eager to draft but he doesn't scare me much either.   I'm fine with him as my 2nd WR.      

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I’m not sure I’m seeing how Tyler Boyd proved he is stiff competition/a negative for AJ. Last year AJ was on pace for ~90/1400/12 before he got hurt, with Boyd around.

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

My guess is 28 minimum in my auction league for this fella, and he probably gets into the low 30's.   He's not a guy I'm super eager to draft but he doesn't scare me much either.   I'm fine with him as my 2nd WR.      

You're paying low 30s for your WR2?? 

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$200 vs $100 budget thing again I think here, right?

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Curious if you think Boyd just straight out performs both? If healthy, I’m hard pressed to believe AJG posts 1000/6

I have Boyd a bit lower, but with good upside. Boyd eventually had 1000 yd on 14 games. If both stay healthy I assume Green is still #1, but Boyd shouldn't be far behind, and at his ADP, he's pretty attractive to me.

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6 minutes ago, BrianM said:

$200 vs $100 budget thing again I think here, right?

Nope!  15% ish for a WR2 sounds awfully steep to me, but I assumed (never assume!) that you were also grabbing a stud RB and WR1. Curious what your strat is if you're thinking low 30s ($200 cap) for your WR2...

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2 minutes ago, bomont said:

Nope!  15% ish for a WR2 sounds awfully steep to me, but I assumed (never assume!) that you were also grabbing a stud RB and WR1. Curious what your strat is if you're thinking low 30s ($200 cap) for your WR2...

AJG is a wr1 barring injury.    I have no problem spending $30 on him unless I’ve already spent closer to $50 on my wr1.     Especially in 3 wr leagues. 

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Just now, bomont said:

Nope!  15% ish for a WR2 sounds awfully steep to me, but I assumed (never assume!) that you were also grabbing a stud RB and WR1. Curious what your strat is if you're thinking low 30s ($200 cap) for your WR2...

 

That i basically would skip the depth tiers and be building a stud/scrub team with that plan.    Clarity though, I'm not targeting Green, just imagining a scenario in which I draft him in my auction.   There's no way he'd be my first WR because I love too many guys that are more expensive.    What I do with my money after that is still a question mark, but I will almost certainly get one of Evans or Hilton and am prepared to shoot for the moon to do it.   

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14 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I put him at 1000 yd/6 TD, which means I'm out at his current ADP (WR13), and instead I'll be targeting Tyler Boyd as a sleeper (WR27).

Seems like a 16 game floor to me.  If you're saying he does that in say 13 games then he's still more valued than those around his adp.

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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

AJG is a wr1 barring injury.    I have no problem spending $30 on him unless I’ve already spent closer to $50 on my wr1.     Especially in 3 wr leagues. 

"Barring injury" seems to be the part you're more or less ignoring and mostly why I wouldn't want the guy. It's a huge concern IMO.

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He does seem to get hurt about every year...

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