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A.J. Green 2019 Outlook

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If you own AJ in Dynasty sell now while you can...i guess. Dudes hurt alot and old.. or atleast getting old

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4 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

If you own AJ in Dynasty sell now while you can...i guess. Dudes hurt alot and old.. or atleast getting old

Who the hell is buying this guy in dynasty?? 

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7 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

If you own AJ in Dynasty sell now while you can...i guess. Dudes hurt alot and old.. or atleast getting old

 

While you can?!?

Why not wait until he’s healthy and has some trade value? 

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7 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Good thing you’re an internet doctor with grammar like that.  👀

 

8 weeks puts him back within the first third of the season,  right before byes get heavy.    

Can’t wait for the discount 

 

Okay 

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5 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

If you own AJ in Dynasty sell now while you can...i guess. 

Sell now, while he has no trade value? I’d personal advise against that unless a truly lopsided deal presents itself. 

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Think I've had this guy 2/3 seasons, maybe 3/4. Guy is great when healthy. Disappears towards the end of the season, but that's mostly due to injuries.

 

I have to say I think he's a DND for me this year. If he falls to the 5th, I might be tempted to drop the DND, but I think it's best to look elsewhere. Don't want the headache of him playing hobbled all year. Torn ligaments are no joke and it seems like he can never get through a full season.

 

So watch him do the opposite this year and finish how he usually starts...He got his injury over with early.

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Perhaps the silver lining here is that AJ Green will no longer be able to rely on past performance to get a big new contract. Now, teams will want to see that this injury is not going to be a problem going forward, and they’ll want to see him play like a star again before committing long term. So Green is going to do everything in his power to get back on the field asap, play like a WR1, and make a case for what may be his last big pay day. Had he not been injured, he may have actually played cautiously to avoid injury while he waits for a new deal, relying on past performance. That’s no longer an option.

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If you were drafting today, where does he go?

Previously was in the Thielen, Diggs, Cooper, Edelman tier.

I think now he's behind Cooper Kupp, Landry, Mike Williams.  So like a round 5 or 6 pick.

Somebody is going to gamble on him in every league.  If he comes back in week 2 or 3, that's tremendous value.  But if the injury lingers?  Then that's worse than drafting a guy that is suspended.

I've been bitten too many times by owning injured guys hoping they come back sooner than expected.  I could envision seeing him as DNP every single Wednesday this year and you'll have no idea about his status.  I'd feel more comfortable owning him in a best ball format, where if he plays, great, and let's see what happens.  But in a season long redraft where you have to make a start-sit decision every Sunday?  Not sure if he's worth the headache.

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9 minutes ago, CooL said:

If you were drafting today, where does he go?

Previously was in the Thielen, Diggs, Cooper, Edelman tier.

I think now he's behind Cooper Kupp, Landry, Mike Williams.  So like a round 5 or 6 pick.

Somebody is going to gamble on him in every league.  If he comes back in week 2 or 3, that's tremendous value.  But if the injury lingers?  Then that's worse than drafting a guy that is suspended.

I've been bitten too many times by owning injured guys hoping they come back sooner than expected.  I could envision seeing him as DNP every single Wednesday this year and you'll have no idea about his status.  I'd feel more comfortable owning him in a best ball format, where if he plays, great, and let's see what happens.  But in a season long redraft where you have to make a start-sit decision every Sunday?  Not sure if he's worth the headache.

It’s a tough call. Like you said, if the injury lingers it could be quite a headache. On the other hand, Green is getting a second opinion and Zac Taylor still won’t rule him out for week 1. Green is presumably upset about the injury/contract situation, so like I said above, he’s going to push to get back on the field asap and make a case for $$$. He suddenly has a lot to prove which is actually great for fantasy purposes. 

The fact that it was originally thought to be an ankle sprain indicates that it didn’t appear to be incredibly debilitating. “Torn ligaments” sounds much worse, but if it’s a minor tear it may not be as bad as it sounds. I have a feeling Green is only going to miss a couple games, if any, which shouldn’t really effect his value much at all. If he were suspended for the first two games we wouldn’t be freaking out, so assuming the healing process/timetable goes as planned he should be confidently back in fantasy lineups within the first few weeks of the season.  

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

It’s a tough call. Like you said, if the injury lingers it could be quite a headache. On the other hand, Green is getting a second opinion and Zac Taylor still won’t rule him out for week 1. Green is presumably upset about the injury/contract situation, so like I said above, he’s going to push to get back on the field asap and make a case for $$$. He suddenly has a lot to prove which is actually great for fantasy purposes. 

The fact that it was originally thought to be an ankle sprain indicates that it didn’t appear to be incredibly debilitating. “Torn ligaments” sounds much worse, but if it’s a minor tear it may not be as bad as it sounds. I have a feeling Green is only going to miss a couple games, if any, which shouldn’t really effect his value much at all. If he were suspended for the first two games we wouldn’t be freaking out, so assuming the healing process/timetable goes as planned he should be confidently back in fantasy lineups within the first few weeks of the season.  

 

 solid reasoning.  There is of course risk but it’s still very early and this is not the foot he had previous issues with.  

 

 I can’t see letting him fall past round 5.   Zero chance I pick a M Williams or Landry over him.  

Edited by Impreza178
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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Perhaps the silver lining here is that AJ Green will no longer be able to rely on past performance to get a big new contract. Now, teams will want to see that this injury is not going to be a problem going forward, and they’ll want to see him play like a star again before committing long term. So Green is going to do everything in his power to get back on the field asap, play like a WR1, and make a case for what may be his last big pay day. Had he not been injured, he may have actually played cautiously to avoid injury while he waits for a new deal, relying on past performance. That’s no longer an option.

 

Good points.

However, I think that there is two sides to this. Sure, he will do everything in his power to get back asap, but if you are Green, his agent or even the team, would you really want to rush him back only to reinjure himself and have this injury nagging him all season. That does no good for helping his team or cashing in at the end of the season. I could easily see a scenario where they play it safe, get him back to 100% and he's productive for the rest of the season.

 

As of right now, based on the news that we have, I don't see him back before week 3. The best that we can hope is that he returns in week 3, gets in limited snaps and is fully healthy for week 4. So I would draft him, on the assumption of the worst case scenario of him not being available for a fantasy team for the first three games. That's not the end of the world.

 

With all that being said, if everything remains status quo, I would not let him slide past the 5th round. That's just crazy. 

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34 minutes ago, CooL said:

If you were drafting today, where does he go? [...] Not sure if he's worth the headache.

 

entirely worth the headache if he falls into the bargain bin. many would argue that his price before injury was a bargain (the 3.01-3.06 range). now he'll clearly sink to round 4 at the very least.

24 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 so assuming the healing process/timetable goes as planned he should be confidently back in fantasy lineups within the first few weeks of the season. 

 

agreed with both of your posts as long as we remove the word "confidently."

5 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 I can’t see letting him fall past round 5.   Zero chance I pick a M Williams or Landry over him.  

 

certainly as reports are reported, ADP will fluctuate in the round 4 to round 5 range, and unlikely he slips beyond 5.

agree entirely regarding mike williams and landry; today's ADP for PPR are 6.01 and 5.07, respectively

but the more difficult questions come when considering the other WRs within the 4-5 range: based on today's PPR ADP we have edelman (4.03), cooks (4.05), woods (4.08) kenny golladay (4.10), chris godwin (4.11), calvin ridley (4.12), cooper kupp (5.03), tyler lockett (5.05).

with edelman and ridley and kupp all with their own health issues, and now AJG, there are a handful of injury updates to keep tabs on if looking for a WR2 in rounds 4-5...

 

 

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Posted (edited)

You have discounts that arise from being considered injury prone.

You have discounts that arise from being currently injured.

Sometimes it seems that these are assessed as almost the same thing (I’m not saying that’s what those posting on this thread are doing, just that this does commonly occur in my observation). But obviously they are not the same thing.

Sometimes a player who is considered injury prone has just been snake bit (especially if he’s early in his career and there’s not a ton of injury history to go based off of). Getting that player at a discount can be a true discount because the level of concern in the fantasy community did not match reality. 

But a player who is currently injured is, well, actually injured. You may be getting him at a discount if he ends up coming back earlier than expected or returns to full form earlier than expected. But you may also just be drafting an injured player because again he’s, well, injured. We receive so little information about injuries that’s it’s really difficult (if not impossible) as an outside observer to make an informed injury assessment. You can argue that these are discounts just like the injury prone players, and I’ll respect that. But I believe they’re completely different things.

AJ Green was already in the injury prone category and at 30 years old was being drafted later as a result. Now he’s actually injured. You may get value by drafting him in the 4th or 5th round and he comes back early/as scheduled and studs out for the rest of the year. There’s a lot of luck in fantasy, but I believe predicting injury outcomes are almost exclusively luck especially since we have very little information/insight into injury statuses. I prefer to roll my dice elsewhere.

All that to say, I’m not drafting a 30 year old injured player to be a starter on my fantasy team. That would at a minimum put him in the 5th round for me. But with a starting Flex position as well, that puts him in the 6th round. He’s not going to drop that far in drafts (unless the injury is reported as even worse as we get closer to draft season - in which case I would continue to drop him down my board). So I don’t expect to have any share of Green this year.  

 

Edited by gufomel
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17 minutes ago, gufomel said:

You have discounts that arise from being considered injury prone.

You have discounts that arise from being currently injured.

Sometimes it seems that these are assessed as almost the same thing (I’m not saying that’s what those posting on this thread are doing, just that this does commonly occur in my observation). But obviously they are not the same thing.

Sometimes a player who is considered injury prone has just been snake bit (especially if he’s early in his career and there’s not a ton of injury history to go based off of). Getting that player at a discount can be a true discount because the level of concern in the fantasy community did not match reality. 

But a player who is currently injured is, well, actually injured. You may be getting him at a discount if he ends up coming back earlier than expected or returns to full form earlier than expected. But you may also just be drafting an injured player because again he’s, well, injured. We receive so little information about injuries that’s it’s really difficult (if not impossible) as an outside observer to make an informed injury assessment. You can argue that these are discounts just like the injury prone players, and I’ll respect that. But I believe they’re completely different things.

AJ Green was already in the injury prone category and at 30 years old was being drafted later as a result. Now he’s actually injured. You may get value by drafting him in the 4th or 5th round and he comes back early/as scheduled and studs out for the rest of the year. There’s a lot of luck in fantasy, but I believe predicting injury outcomes are almost exclusively luck especially since we have very little information/insight into injury statuses. I prefer to roll my dice elsewhere.

All that to say, I’m not drafting a 30 year old injured player to be a starter on my fantasy team. That would at a minimum put him in the 5th round for me. But with a starting Flex position as well, that puts him in the 6th round. He’s not going to drop that far in drafts (unless the injury is reported as even worse as we get closer to draft season - in which case I would continue to drop him down my board). So I don’t expect to have any share of Green this year.  

 

Perfectly fair counterpoint.  There’s no way to know what we can expect out of AJG...or when.   He’s a pick for the latter half and stretch run. 

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17 minutes ago, gufomel said:

AJ Green was already in the injury prone category and at 30 years old was being drafted later as a result. Now he’s actually injured. You may get value by drafting him in the 4th or 5th round and he comes back early/as scheduled and studs out for the rest of the year. There’s a lot of luck in fantasy, but I believe predicting injury outcomes are almost exclusively luck especially since we have very little information/insight into injury statuses. I prefer to roll my dice elsewhere.

All that to say, I’m not drafting a 30 year old injured player to be a starter on my fantasy team. That would at a minimum put him in the 5th round for me. But with a starting Flex position as well, that puts him in the 6th round. He’s not going to drop that far in drafts (unless the injury is reported as even worse as we get closer to draft season - in which case I would continue to drop him down my board). So I don’t expect to have any share of Green this year.  

 

Word.  Exactly my thinking.  He was in the bottom tier of the WRs being drafted at end of second / beginning of third due to age, injury concern, etc.  Now he's injured.  So if you're drafting, you're really hoping that he comes back healthy and preferably beats the timeline.  But we've all seen players not come back when expected.  I'd take him in the late 5th or 6th but no sooner, so he's going to end up on somebody else's team.  Which is fine.  I'd rather roll with Golladay, Godwin, etc.

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2 hours ago, gufomel said:

You have discounts that arise from being considered injury prone.

You have discounts that arise from being currently injured.

Sometimes it seems that these are assessed as almost the same thing (I’m not saying that’s what those posting on this thread are doing, just that this does commonly occur in my observation). But obviously they are not the same thing.

Sometimes a player who is considered injury prone has just been snake bit (especially if he’s early in his career and there’s not a ton of injury history to go based off of). Getting that player at a discount can be a true discount because the level of concern in the fantasy community did not match reality. 

But a player who is currently injured is, well, actually injured. You may be getting him at a discount if he ends up coming back earlier than expected or returns to full form earlier than expected. But you may also just be drafting an injured player because again he’s, well, injured. We receive so little information about injuries that’s it’s really difficult (if not impossible) as an outside observer to make an informed injury assessment. You can argue that these are discounts just like the injury prone players, and I’ll respect that. But I believe they’re completely different things.

AJ Green was already in the injury prone category and at 30 years old was being drafted later as a result. Now he’s actually injured. You may get value by drafting him in the 4th or 5th round and he comes back early/as scheduled and studs out for the rest of the year. There’s a lot of luck in fantasy, but I believe predicting injury outcomes are almost exclusively luck especially since we have very little information/insight into injury statuses. I prefer to roll my dice elsewhere.

All that to say, I’m not drafting a 30 year old injured player to be a starter on my fantasy team. That would at a minimum put him in the 5th round for me. But with a starting Flex position as well, that puts him in the 6th round. He’s not going to drop that far in drafts (unless the injury is reported as even worse as we get closer to draft season - in which case I would continue to drop him down my board). So I don’t expect to have any share of Green this year.  

 

 

Agree with this....well said.

He's injury prone over his past couple seasons, over 30....And now injured.  

No way I'm messing around with him unless he comes at a HUGE discount.  If I could draft him as my WR3 or something them I'd think about it.

Something tells me that somebody out there will be taking the risk before that though and that I too will wind up with very few AJ Green shares.

Maybe part of it is that I still have a bad taste in my mouth from last year watching him taking up space on my bench.

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In the event that he makes it to round 5, Green could make for a major value pick. If he can come back healthy anywhere close to his current timetable, he’ll only miss the first few weeks of the year before bye weeks and injuries really kick in. 

He’s especially attractive in smaller leagues, since you can easily draft starting-caliber players to fill in for him while he recovers. In larger formats, it might be more difficult to navigate the earlier weeks while he’s still on ice. 

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17 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Sell now, while he has no trade value? I’d personal advise against that unless a truly lopsided deal presents itself. 

sell now before the diagnoses gets worse......

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46 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

sell now before the diagnoses gets worse......

Yeah, idk bro. Still seems like poor team management. 

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The following article suggests that Green may still be available for the season opener and states that he got a second opinion and does not need surgery? Plan is to monitor the ankle and see how it heals. 

Unless he's really cheap, I'm likely out...

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Posted (edited)
 

Another update on #Bengals WR AJ Green: Following surgery, based on what they found cleaning out the ankle, he’s now expected to miss a few games, I’m told. Not ideal.

 
 
Edited by ToO_BaD

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23 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

sell now before the diagnoses gets worse......

Im always right. Ill be surprised if he plays before week 10..

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23 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Could get better.

nope... 

 

18 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:
 

Another update on #Bengals WR AJ Green: Following surgery, based on what they found cleaning out the ankle, he’s now expected to miss a few games, I’m told. Not ideal.

 
 

My source says alot more than "a few games". Oh Ian...

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