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2019 MiLB Bench Coach Thread (TRIAL)

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The mod team has received some feedback over the years suggesting that some community members would like a venue where they can pose team / league context-specific questions about minor minor league players to a prospect-oriented audience.  Our response has generally been that we'd prefer folks used the Bench Coach Help forum for this sort of thing.  At the same time, we do recognize that some prospect hounds don't spend as much time in Bench Coach, and therefore might not ever see the prospect questions, which are often drowned out by more general, redraft-oriented fantasy advice.

In response to these requests, we are establishing this MiLB Bench Coach thread on a trial basis, with the following restrictions / caveats:

1. There will be one (and only one) Minor League Bench Coach thread per season.  This means no individual topics for each question, and no asking BC questions in other MiLB threads.  Any BC questions posted in existing threads or as new topics will be merged or removed at the mod team's discretion.

2. Requests for advice may not include discussion of any players who have reached the major leagues. If your question involves adding, dropping, or trading for any players that have accrued any MLB service time, it probably belongs in the Bench Coach forum.  We want to reserve this thread for questions that are grounded in the long-term value of a minor league prospect, not the day-to-day fluctuations of one or more players that have been called up.

3. This thread is an experiment -- one we reserve the right to shut down at our discretion if we feel it isn't working.  We're offering this as a compromise to address a specific complaint, not as a general solution.  We still believe the Bench Coach forum is the right place to ask questions about your team.  Attempts to try to use this thread in any way other than as described above will add to the administrative burden on our end, which will eventually lead to the experiment being killed.  However, if things go well, we may bring this back for the 2020 fantasy season.

With all of that said, we're very thankful to the members of our community who offer their prospect analysis in the MiLB outlook threads, and look forward to a productive discussion here as well.

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I’ll give it go! Thanks for putting this up, I think it could really help those of us in deep dynasty leagues. 

Anyways..

I’m in a 20 team h2h league with 12 minor leagues spots and 28 active roster spots. All players are kept. Standard 5x5 with OBP and SLG for offense and K/BB and QS for pitchers. 

I have a few guys at the bottom of the pecking order on my roster I need to drop and have 2 guys (Smith and Kimbrel) coming back off the DL/Rehab soon. Which 2 of these struggling guys  should I drop:

Lazaro Armenteros

Victor Victor Mesa

Jonathan Loaisiga

Taylor Hearn 

JB Bukauskas

Tyler Nevin

Blake Rutherford

Clarke Schmidt

 

Thanks!

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Armenteros is a any easy drop for me - 122 K's in 247 AB's at the A+ level isn't something I'm going to hang onto unless the power/speed numbers are otherworldly (and they aren't).

I'd probably also drop Rutherford due to prospect fatigue/performance/names in front of him.

Mesa would probably be my third choice if I had to make it, but I'd probably still give him a bit more time to adjust and establish a more complete track record.

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All of the guys you've mentioned as cuts are hurt or underperforming (except Schmidt), which makes the decision easier. Loaisiga/Bukauskas/Nevin/Rutherford are all almost in AA or higher and are closer to being MLB ready than not. I really don't think Hearn will amount to much. Victor Victor Mesa I feel like you might as well hold onto if you can since he's one of the higher ceiling guys out of the ones you listed.

Hearn and Lazaro are my cuts.

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1 hour ago, Dark One said:

Armenteros is a any easy drop for me - 122 K's in 247 AB's at the A+ level isn't something I'm going to hang onto unless the power/speed numbers are otherworldly (and they aren't).

I'd probably also drop Rutherford due to prospect fatigue/performance/names in front of him.

Mesa would probably be my third choice if I had to make it, but I'd probably still give him a bit more time to adjust and establish a more complete track record.

 

37 minutes ago, Maxcd99 said:

All of the guys you've mentioned as cuts are hurt or underperforming (except Schmidt), which makes the decision easier. Loaisiga/Bukauskas/Nevin/Rutherford are all almost in AA or higher and are closer to being MLB ready than not. I really don't think Hearn will amount to much. Victor Victor Mesa I feel like you might as well hold onto if you can since he's one of the higher ceiling guys out of the ones you listed.

Hearn and Lazaro are my cuts.

Thanks fellas! I agree with you both. Lazaro’s 40%+ K% is absurd. Just wasn’t sure how was still viewed by the public, as I remember him being touted as the next big Cuban player. Thanks for the input!

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Do you guys know of any pitchers projected to become closers?

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13 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Do you guys know of any pitchers projected to become closers?

Speculating saves at the minor league level often results in disappointment and wasted roster utilization, however,  below are some noteworthy relievers to keep tabs on nonetheless: 

 

Andres Munoz, SD

James Karinchak, Cle

Darwinzon Hernandez, Bos (likely eventual transition to pen)

Zach Burdi, Chw

Ben Bowden, Col

Junior Fernandez, STL

Gerson Bautista, Sea

Jake Newberry, KC 

Hunter Harvey, Bal (the former top prospect is throwing 100 out of the pen)

 

.....intrigued to hear if anyone else has any additional names to add to this list.  

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Selling and looking at prospect targets. Can someone rank these for me:

B McKay

C Kieboom

L Urias

J Kelenic

J Sanchez

J Bart

V Brujan

N Madrigal

 

Thanks!

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3 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Selling and looking at prospect targets. Can someone rank these for me:

B McKay

C Kieboom

L Urias

J Kelenic

J Sanchez

J Bart

V Brujan

N Madrigal

 

Thanks!


As always, context matters in terms of individual league settings/long term positional needs/etc.; however, in a vacuum I'd go:

Kelenic/Mckay/Urias/Kieboom/Madrigal/Brujan/Bart/Sanchez

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3 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Selling and looking at prospect targets. Can someone rank these for me:

B McKay

C Kieboom

L Urias

J Kelenic

J Sanchez

J Bart

V Brujan

N Madrigal

 

Thanks!

 

Urias

Mckay

Brujan

Kelenic

Keiboom

Sanchez

Bart

Madrgial

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Urias

Mckay

Brujan

Kelenic

Keiboom

Sanchez

Bart

Madrgial


Wow, really surprised you'd have Madrigal so far behind Brujan - to me, they're very similar prospects with Madrigal doing it at AA and is a bit closer to joining what's going to be a stacked lineup on the south side.

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1 minute ago, Dark One said:


Wow, really surprised you'd have Madrigal so far behind Brujan - to me, they're very similar prospects with Madrigal doing it at AA and is a bit closer to joining what's going to be a stacked lineup on the south side.

 

Considerably more optimistic on Brujan's power and ability to steal bases. Brujan to me might not be a fantasy superstar, but has the upside, and I rather be stashing those guys.

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Urias

Kelenic

Bart

Kieboom

B McKay

Brujan

Sanchez

Madrigal

 

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34 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Considerably more optimistic on Brujan's power and ability to steal bases. Brujan to me might not be a fantasy superstar, but has the upside, and I rather be stashing those guys.


Interesting take - I just see their potential game power/speed/hit tools as so similar it's almost eerie, but just love the situation that Madrigal's going to be a part of sooner rather than later. If more folks are down on Madrigal (I see @The Man also had him ranked last), I'd be happy to try and buy low anywhere I can.

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4 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Selling and looking at prospect targets. Can someone rank these for me:

B McKay

C Kieboom

L Urias

J Kelenic

J Sanchez

J Bart

V Brujan

N Madrigal

 

Thanks!

Obv format dependent, but my order:

Kelenic

Kieboom

Urias

Madrigal

Brujan

McKay

Sanchez

Bart

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The history of slap hitting speedsters is not great.  Madrigal has a career .79 IsoP.  That's really bad.  Everyone is comparing him to Altuve or Dustin Pedroia, but Altuve (.153) and Pedroia (.139) showed way more power in the minors. 

Players with zero power aren't going to get many walks because pitchers have no incentive to pitch carefully to them.  Madrigal is going to get balls grooved down the middle because he can't do any real danger if he puts it in play. Brujan has a little more power than Madrigal so I have more confidence in him.  But still not a ton.  Sanchez could very well end up the best player, but he's all projection right now and there are less risky players on that list.

I don't have a report to cite, but I'd bet that if you look at the population of players with an IsoP under say .110 in the minors, you are going to see a significantly higher flame out rate about prospects.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, The Man said:

The history of slap hitting speedsters is not great.  Madrigal has a career .79 IsoP.  That's really bad.

For someone that rarely strikes out, I don't think Madrigal's going to constantly ground out/fly out and will absolutely hit for average in a lineup with plenty of firepower. Both Brujan and Madrigal have comparable ISO figures this year. I don't think everyone is comparing Madrigal to Altuve/Pedroia (I'm certainly not), but I don't exactly see Juan Pierre power numbers from Madrigal either and definitely think he's going to get on base at a high clip.

Edited by Dark One

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Dark One said:


Interesting take - I just see their potential game power/speed/hit tools as so similar it's almost eerie, but just love the situation that Madrigal's going to be a part of sooner rather than later. If more folks are down on Madrigal (I see @The Man also had him ranked last), I'd be happy to try and buy low anywhere I can.

Brujan actually illustrated some power with his left handed swing last year. Where I think Nicky is who he is. 

Last year, hitting left handed Brujan had a .178 ISO as a 20 year old, while his right handed swing only had a .044 ISO. You have to remember Brujan is a young switch hitter. He's far from a finished product. Nick is pretty much MLB ready and struggles to even post an ISO with a 1 next to it.

Brujan is absolutely the ceiling play, Nick is the floor/safe 3 cat guy play here.

Edited by Slatykamora

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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Brujan actually illustrated some power with his left handed swing last year. Where I think Nicky is who he is. 

Last year, hitting left handed Brujan had a .178 ISO as a 20 year old, while his right handed swing only had a .044 ISO. You have to remember Brujan is a young switch hitter. He's far from a finished product. Nick is pretty much MLB ready and struggles to even post an ISO with a 1 next to it.

Brujan is absolutely the ceiling play, Nick is the floor/safe 3 cat guy play here.

I know he exhibited more power last year - was just stating that it hasn't been the case this year and two have comparable ISO numbers in 2019. I'd just like to see more of what he showed last year before being convinced he has a much higher all around ceiling. I certainly like both prospects a lot - and it's clear Brujan has at least a little more power than Madrigal given what he's already exhibited, but I like Madrigal's situation/proximity better to value the latter just a little higher for now. Totally cool though, I completely understand where folks are coming from and wouldn't fault anyone for their position.

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10 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Urias

Mckay

Brujan

Kelenic

Keiboom

Sanchez

Bart

Madrgial

Call me crazy, but if you asked to pick one guy today. I might reach hard for Kelenic. I know Proximity favors Urias, McKay, Kieboom.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Call me crazy, but if you asked to pick one guy today. I might reach hard for Kelenic. I know Proximity favors Urias, McKay, Kieboom.


Agreed 100%.

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2 minutes ago, Dark One said:

I know he exhibited more power last year - was just stating that it hasn't been the case this year and two have comparable ISO numbers in 2019. I'd just like to see more of what he showed last year before being convinced he has a much higher all around ceiling. I certainly like both prospects a lot - and it's clear Brujan has at least a little more power than Madrigal given what he's already exhibited, but I like Madrigal's situation/proximity better to value the latter just a little higher for now. Totally cool though, I completely understand where folks are coming from and wouldn't fault anyone for their position.

I think they developmentally at different stages, so i'm not keen on comparing current numbers between the 2. That's all, I don't blame anyone hedging with Nick first here.

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Need prospect keeper help!!  Our trade deadline is approaching and I have some valuable assets I can unload 1 or 2 

 

first year of our keeper league.  

I can keep 3 players;

 

* Obvious no brainer Hiura (Cost Round 29 in 2020, 28 in 2021, 27 in 2022) 

 

After Keston :

 

can keep two of :

 

1. Adell (15th Round Pick 2020, 14th then 13th)

2. Mize (14th Round pick 2020, 13th then 12th)

3.  Whitley (14th Round pick 2020, 13th then 12th)

4.  Otahni Batter (17th round pick 2020, 16th then 15th)

 

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Adell and Mize for me - Whitley's "shoulder fatigue" leaves me with enough questions to want to rely on other higher profile prospects for 2020 production than Whitley if there are alternatives, especially if the decision needs to be made for 2020 in short order. With respect to Ohtani, the production should be there, but a return to regular starts in the rotation (and subsequent days of rest before and after those starts) could limit the offense from a volume standpoint.

Now having said that, since Ohtani is a proven commodity at the plate, I could see wanting to keep him if you're in a roto league and can mix and match other players at Utility on days he's not in the lineup. Context/specific league settings are always important considerations for questions like this. Good luck!

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14 hours ago, Dark One said:

Adell and Mize for me - Whitley's "shoulder fatigue" leaves me with enough questions to want to rely on other higher profile prospects for 2020 production than Whitley if there are alternatives, especially if the decision needs to be made for 2020 in short order. With respect to Ohtani, the production should be there, but a return to regular starts in the rotation (and subsequent days of rest before and after those starts) could limit the offense from a volume standpoint.

Now having said that, since Ohtani is a proven commodity at the plate, I could see wanting to keep him if you're in a roto league and can mix and match other players at Utility on days he's not in the lineup. Context/specific league settings are always important considerations for questions like this. Good luck!

 

Exactly. I mean the guy has been out for over a month at this point. That must be some crazy fatigue or they're just not disclosing a more serious situation.

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