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tonycpsu

2019 Juiced Ball Discussion

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So many records being broken this year. Keep these balls and we'll end up seeing an 800 club.

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2 hours ago, collucho said:

So many records being broken this year. Keep these balls and we'll end up seeing an 800 club.

 

And HOF’ers with career ERAs of 4+?😖

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16 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

My thoughts exactly.  While I truly do think the juiced ball is helping home runs.  I also think that more of the HR uptick is due to other factors outside of the juiced ball.

1.  Velos are at an all time high (seem to increase just about every year) faster it comes in the faster it goes out.

2.  More young talent than ever just pouring into the league the league really needs to expand to 36 teams there's enough talent out there to add a team in every division.

3.  The new age approach that striking out isn't the worst outcome swing hard and get deep into counts to try and hit a home run.

4.  Launch angle flyballs are actually good if you're hitting one out of every 4 out for HR.

5.  Advanced analytics hitters have better ideas of what pitches to sit on and what pitches to stay away from before the game even starts.

6.  Don't forget about bat makers!! Finding ways to produce with harder wood.  Better balancing from end loaded to balanced and all in between.  Different types of handles (axe handle).  Among many other things the bat makers are doing to make their bats the best (and it's an extremely competitive field).

7.  The coaching in baseball (and all sports for that matters) just continues to get better and better as most things this is just naturally due to human progress.

The short answer here is no, it’s the ball. 

All those other anecdotal things you mentioned are true of every single player everywhere. Yet the data shows this jump is happening only at AAA and MLB. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

The short answer here is no, it’s the ball. 

All those other anecdotal things you mentioned are true of every single player everywhere. Yet the data shows this jump is happening only at AAA and MLB. 

 

 

As much as I want to agree with you (and i am not disagreeing), I think we need a larger sample size of at least one more season with the "juiced ball" to see if it really impacts the league.

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4 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

 

As much as I want to agree with you (and i am not disagreeing), I think we need a larger sample size of at least one more season with the "juiced ball" to see if it really impacts the league.

But the question is, what else could it be? The massive jump is only happening where the new ball is being used.

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7 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

As much as I want to agree with you (and i am not disagreeing), I think we need a larger sample size of at least one more season with the "juiced ball" to see if it really impacts the league.

 

Not really.  The sample size here isn't one season, it's something like 100,000 batted ball events in that season.  That's more than enough to draw meaningful conclusions.  That doesn't tell us anything about what it'll be like next year, of course, but we've already seen the impact.

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Any records broken nowdays should have * next to them due to juiced ball, both pitching and hitting wise, as it affects everyone. (fly ball pitchers who could not adjust rip)

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Not really.  The sample size here isn't one season, it's something like 100,000 batted ball events in that season.  That's more than enough to draw meaningful conclusions.  That doesn't tell us anything about what it'll be like next year, of course, but we've already seen the impact.

I guess so, I just am curious as to if the numbers will continue this trend past the 2019 season.

 

4 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

Any records broken nowdays should have * next to them due to juiced ball, both pitching and hitting wise, as it affects everyone. (fly ball pitchers who could not adjust rip)

Then any record before the color barrier was broken should have a *. And any record during the steroid era should have a *. Any any record during any season played at the Polo Grounds should have a *. There will always be factors in seasons that change to what was previously played- you can't asterisk history. 

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I definitely agree that the ball is a part of the HR rate.


I don't agree that the ball is making bad players good, and good players (pitchers) bad.

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

I guess so, I just am curious as to if the numbers will continue this trend past the 2019 season.

 

Then any record before the color barrier was broken should have a *. And any record during the steroid era should have a *. Any any record during any season played at the Polo Grounds should have a *. There will always be factors in seasons that change to what was previously played- you can't asterisk history. 

I wasnt aware that color barrier affected physics of items used in sport which in effect affected the sport directly, same with stereoids, as they were not officially added to use by MLB where the ball modifications were done by MLB.

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1 minute ago, DJSatane said:

I wasnt aware that color barrier affected physics of items used in sport which in effect affected the sport directly, same with stereoids, as they were not officially added to use by MLB where the ball modifications were done by MLB.

um... were talking about the effect that these factors have on numbers. If only white people were allowed in the MLB in 2019, would the numbers look the same? No. So yes, you are aware that factors such as the aforementioned ones affect the sport directly. 

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31 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

um... were talking about the effect that these factors have on numbers. If only white people were allowed in the MLB in 2019, would the numbers look the same? No. So yes, you are aware that factors such as the aforementioned ones affect the sport directly. 

 

Human factor is one thing thats expected to impact sports, modifying a ball in order to make sport more exciting is not same thing.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

 

Human factor is one thing thats expected to impact sports, modifying a ball in order to make sport more exciting is not same thing.

your quote was that you were "unaware that the color barrier affected sports". That is just plain false, and that is was I was referring to. Anything that affects the outcome of sports, aka statistics, which is what we care about as Fantasy Baseball owners, is relevant, and simply saying "Human factor is one thing thats expected to impact sports" is so vague, and almost a "get out of jail for free" way to cover up the original point. Whether the MLB implements a change, rule change, etc, it will affect the sport. And you know what else affects the sport, outside influences.

ie: If an earthquake comes ripping through the Boston area and a bunch of Sox players go down as a result, that will surely have an affect on your team, especially if you own said players. Another example that is REAL is Jose Fernandez. I owned him the year he was killed. He was as stud, and a tragic loss for the sport. Did it affect my fbb team? Sure did. Just because factor may not have come from the MLB directly doesn't make it any less impactful - ie: Steroids, color barrier, etc. 

Edited by MSkibisky

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2 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I definitely agree that the ball is a part of the HR rate.


I don't agree that the ball is making bad players good, and good players (pitchers) bad.

Good and bad are relative. That’s hard to quantify. But what it is doing is skewing results. For pitchers, there are multiple ways to get to a 3.50 ERA. Some are fly ball pitchers, some rely more on defense. Those who rely on defense aren’t being hurt, while the fly ball pitcher now has a 4.40 ERA (fake scenario for affect). 

Same with hitters. It’s not making them “better,” but guys who flew out a ton in the past now have much better numbers because more of those balls are flying over the wall, while guys that don’t hit the ball in the air as much aren’t receiving the same bump. 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Good and bad are relative. That’s hard to quantify. But what it is doing is skewing results. For pitchers, there are multiple ways to get to a 3.50 ERA. Some are fly ball pitchers, some rely more on defense. Those who rely on defense aren’t being hurt, while the fly ball pitcher now has a 4.40 ERA (fake scenario for affect). 

Same with hitters. It’s not making them “better,” but guys who flew out a ton in the past now have much better numbers because more of those balls are flying over the wall, while guys that don’t hit the ball in the air as much aren’t receiving the same bump. 

 

I don't disagree. Good points there.

 

I'm just saying in general (and kind of like the steroid era - no I'm not going there LOL), a good player might get a little better but I don't think a guy who profiles as a 10 HR/year guy will be 30/HR because of this ball (although it could definitely be a part of the leap). I think we'd see even more dramatic results if that was the case.

And on the flip side, a 2.50 ERA pitcher isn't going to turn into a 4.50 ERA pitcher because of the ball (but it could certainly attribute to some of that spike). But to your point, maybe there is a pitcher out there that has that dramatic of results just based on how he as an individual grips the ball or whatever. There could be a myriad of effects from the new ball. What if G. Cole actually gets a better grip on the seams because of his individual physiological type of finger tip and/or finger nail bed (and his ERA is even better this year)? To your other point, certain guys swing a certain way that helps get them a few more HR's. And/or it's a combination of luck/circumstances and some randomness mixed in.  I mean, next year are we going to draft Ketel Marte the same way we valued him this year (because....the ball)? Or will he cost more next year because he's just growing as a player and truly has gotten better? 

 

I guess just in general, I don't like the idea of basing overall opinion of players because of the ball this year. Alvarez isn't a stud because of the ball. He's just a stud. Snell isn't a bad pitcher because of the ball, he's having an inconsistent poor (by his standards) year with health issues.

 

I don't know man, just talking out of my arse. :)

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3 hours ago, DJSatane said:

I wasnt aware that color barrier affected physics of items used in sport which in effect affected the sport directly, same with stereoids, as they were not officially added to use by MLB where the ball modifications were done by MLB.

Your previous statement was in regards to the sport's records and placing asterisks. The color of the players didn't affect the physics of the ball, obviously you are correct there. But the absence of some of the best hitters and pitchers absolutely affected the statistics & records that were set in that era.

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46 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

I don't disagree. Good points there.

 

I'm just saying in general (and kind of like the steroid era - no I'm not going there LOL), a good player might get a little better but I don't think a guy who profiles as a 10 HR/year guy will be 30/HR because of this ball (although it could definitely be a part of the leap). I think we'd see even more dramatic results if that was the case.

And on the flip side, a 2.50 ERA pitcher isn't going to turn into a 4.50 ERA pitcher because of the ball (but it could certainly attribute to some of that spike). But to your point, maybe there is a pitcher out there that has that dramatic of results just based on how he as an individual grips the ball or whatever. There could be a myriad of effects from the new ball. What if G. Cole actually gets a better grip on the seams because of his individual physiological type of finger tip and/or finger nail bed (and his ERA is even better this year)? To your other point, certain guys swing a certain way that helps get them a few more HR's. And/or it's a combination of luck/circumstances and some randomness mixed in.  I mean, next year are we going to draft Ketel Marte the same way we valued him this year (because....the ball)? Or will he cost more next year because he's just growing as a player and truly has gotten better? 

 

I guess just in general, I don't like the idea of basing overall opinion of players because of the ball this year. Alvarez isn't a stud because of the ball. He's just a stud. Snell isn't a bad pitcher because of the ball, he's having an inconsistent poor (by his standards) year with health issues.

 

I don't know man, just talking out of my arse. :)

Well...the HR record hadn’t been touched in 40 years, then was broken 6 times in 4 seasons. And Brady Anderson hit 50 HR. So I kinda disagree with your premise. These things do not affect everyone in a linear fashion, but they do have a large affect. 

I tend to agree with you on guys like Yordan. But he didn’t come out of nowhere. His hit tool/power was well known. I do think it’s likely we see this will be a career year regarding HR/FB for Yelich, Yordan, and many other guys.

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Well...the HR record hadn’t been touched in 40 years, then was broken 6 times in 4 seasons. And Brady Anderson hit 50 HR. So I kinda disagree with your premise. These things do not affect everyone in a linear fashion, but they do have a large affect. 

I tend to agree with you on guys like Yordan. But he didn’t come out of nowhere. His hit tool/power was well known. I do think it’s likely we see this will be a career year regarding HR/FB for Yelich, Yordan, and many other guys.

 

Yeah maybe that was a sloppy response, my bad. I guess it's up to us to determine who the real breakouts are and who aren't. That's why we're here (fantasy baseball). I will say I'm not overly happy with the MLB right now. :)

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Posted (edited)

This season has been a ludicrous slap in the face to the sport. It’s not steroids - but it is egregious in its own terrible way and needs to quickly be a forgotten footnote is the game’s history. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver
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I've heard people make the point... "Why are baseball fans so against the extra HR's this year? It's good for the game!" But have we seen any type of uptick in popularity this season compared to others in the past? 

From all the articles and studies I've read regarding the situation (there was a reallly reallly good one in The Athletic), it 100% the balls that are accounting for the crazy HR output this year. The AAA numbers are especially telling and I honestly don't know how many people really understand how ridiculously dumb the AAA stats are this year for hitters.

There are so many ways for baseball to better interact with the masses, but I don't think a juiced ball really pushes the needle in either direction popularity wise. I feel bad for the pitchers that have to deal with this, especially the ones that play in extreme hitters parks like Coors and are already at a disadvantage. 

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I read an article recently that compared the HR binge this year to having five-course meal...with dessert for every course. 

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Does anyone know where to find league wide average flyball distances?  I found one article from around June that showed that AAA flyball distances had increased 3% on average up to 304 ft up from ~294 ft.  An extra 10 ft on average for every flyball is a crazy change.  If someone knows where to find the league averages for this I’d like to compare the changes over the last few years and also over the course of the steroid era.  When we see increases in home runs like this it’s not because players are hitting the ball better.  Adding 9 ft to every warning track pop fly a player hits is gonna add home runs, no doubt about it.  If someone with full access to statcast and all it’s potential, I’m sure we could go back and find out just how many home runs most likely would not have made it out of the park this year.

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14 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

Mariners and Orioles pitchers infecting the minor leagues also?

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14 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

I retract my previous statement about "sample size". Pretty impressive results right there.

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