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tonycpsu

2019 Juiced Ball Discussion

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Spring Training: Hey, let's implement a pitch clock to speed up the game so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd...., let's put a runner on 2b in extras like they do in softball to speed up the game so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd........let's limit the number of mound visits to speed up the game, so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd,.......all under the guise of capturing the interest of the hand held device generation who'd rather post selfies outside the ballpark to show they were there, but not actually go watch because it's tooooo long.....so they try the juiced ball approach instead, How did that speed up the game? How did it affect attendance/  It didn't, attendance is down for the 4th consecutive year, 1.3%, however, revenues went up due to ticket price increases, why is this important?  It may impact other proposed changes, as well as those tried in the minors this season...Haven't see the data on those milb trials, but how many people want to see an ml game morph into a softball game in extra innings?

Don't get me wrong, kids love the long ball, so do us old folk, but when it affects the game in the manner that it did, it's not good for the game as a whole.

Can't wait to see what comes next, stay tuned.......

 

BEST PRANK EVER MLB!!

 

    smh....

 

on topic, how do you all feel about the ball change? Is it good for the longevity of the game?

Edited by FISH ON
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If they go back to a normal ball, then we should see a lot of "busts" next year as the just-enough power hitters will lose some homers and the elite power guys will regain their edge.

A 435 ft homer counts the same as a 375 homer. But you take 10% of the distance away and former is still a homer but not the latter.

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The juiced ball has made this easily the least enjoyable fantasy baseball season from a pitching perspective that I can remember.  It isn't easy due to the settings in our league to go to all relievers, but I wish I'd tried to make that switch anyway once this absolute ****show became apparent.  

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10 minutes ago, Overlord said:

The juiced ball has made this easily the least enjoyable fantasy baseball season from a pitching perspective that I can remember.  It isn't easy due to the settings in our league to go to all relievers, but I wish I'd tried to make that switch anyway once this absolute ****show became apparent.  

The number of "Aces" has diminished to nearly a select few, with even the "solid starters" becoming more and more scarce. 

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Common adage says value hitting over pitching, but I say if 2020 remains the same as 2019, elite pitching is more valuable.

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16 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Common adage says value hitting over pitching, but I say if 2020 remains the same as 2019, elite pitching is more valuable.

Easily. Watch Cole go in the top 10 next year.

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18 hours ago, papasmurf said:

If they go back to a normal ball, then we should see a lot of "busts" next year as the just-enough power hitters will lose some homers and the elite power guys will regain their edge.

 

17 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Common adage says value hitting over pitching, but I say if 2020 remains the same as 2019, elite pitching is more valuable.

the problem is that we won't know until it's too late (i.e., well into the season) whether the balls stay the same or change. MLB essentially refused to admit the balls changed in the first place, do you think they're going to be up front and honest about changing them back, or slightly tweaking them in an attempt to find a middle ground? i don't..

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I wonder if spring training may give a hint. Tough to say since spring stats really means nothing.

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7 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

I wonder if spring training may give a hint. Tough to say since spring stats really means nothing.

If Dee Gordon hits one 485ft, then there is your answer

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On 9/4/2019 at 9:01 AM, FISH ON said:

Spring Training: Hey, let's implement a pitch clock to speed up the game so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd...., let's put a runner on 2b in extras like they do in softball to speed up the game so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd........let's limit the number of mound visits to speed up the game, so as not to lose the interest of the younger crowd,.......all under the guise of capturing the interest of the hand held device generation who'd rather post selfies outside the ballpark to show they were there, but not actually go watch because it's tooooo long.....so they try the juiced ball approach instead, How did that speed up the game? How did it affect attendance/  It didn't, attendance is down for the 4th consecutive year, 1.3%, however, revenues went up due to ticket price increases, why is this important?  It may impact other proposed changes, as well as those tried in the minors this season...Haven't see the data on those milb trials, but how many people want to see an ml game morph into a softball game in extra innings?

Don't get me wrong, kids love the long ball, so do us old folk, but when it affects the game in the manner that it did, it's not good for the game as a whole.

Can't wait to see what comes next, stay tuned.......

 

BEST PRANK EVER MLB!!

 

    smh....

 

on topic, how do you all feel about the ball change? Is it good for the longevity of the game?

 

*angrily shakes fist at sky*

 

It's all those dang Millennials' faults!!! lol give me a break dude

Edited by tsh00k

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Knew I wasn't going crazy.

 

I took a few seasons of fantasy baseball off before this year and I could not remember pitching ever being this bad.

 

Seemed like everyone I started gave up 3 HR before the 3rd inning. 

Edited by FritzLn

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MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred: ‘We Need To Make A Change To The Baseball’

Quote

“The only thing I’m prepared to say at this point and time is I do think that we need to see if we can make some changes that gives us a more predictable, consistent performance from the baseball.

 

Hard to read too much into this, but step one is recognizing you have a problem.

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Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus (Registration Required): Moonshot: The Rocket Ball Has Disappeared In October

Quote

One week into this year, I wrote that we were headed for some of the lowest air resistance and highest home run rates to date. The season certainly obliged, churning out a record-breaking home run total that shattered 2017’s prior highs. Air resistance was mostly consistent over the course of the season, remaining at a level just below 2017. 

Until October. In the last week’s worth of Division Series games, the drag coefficient spiked to a high it hadn’t regularly sat at since 2016. October days only contain a fraction of the games of a typical regular season night, but we’re still dealing with a sample of more than 800 fastballs to measure drag with. The probability that a random selection of games from the rest of the regular season would feature as much air resistance as we’ve seen so far in the postseason is about one in one thousand. This was an abrupt spike, as well: It’s the largest change in drag coefficient from week to week this season, by a factor of three. 

image.thumb.png.2c9d156543f90e8e051e24a90d91dc61.png

In total, this model predicted that there should have been 24 more home runs so far in the playoffs than the 43 that were actually hit–an astounding 50 percent difference. For example, Muncy’s monster blast had a 95 percent probability of clearing the fence based on the regular season baseball. Instead, it fell several feet short. Two other fly balls had in excess of a 98 percent chance of being home runs before becoming outs instead. [...]

It’s October, so you might think that cooler air could be suppressing fly ball distances. But postseason baseball so far has featured a warmer-than-average temperature than the 2019 season as a whole, so weather certainly can’t explain the massive reduction in homers.

The data is conclusive in showing that the playoff baseball is very different from the one used in the regular season. But we’re still left with the question of why.

[...] Almost overnight within the same season, the ball has been replaced by one with wholly distinct characteristics, ranging from the speed with which it leaves the bat to the distance it travels. It’s hard to believe that MLB, which owns the company that produces the baseballs, would consciously approve a change to their manufacturing on the eve of the most important month of the season, but it’s also hard to believe that this would happen by accident.

 

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Ball for sure had some impact as there can be a little more jump to the ball and also seams - if you have pitcher friendly seams, they can create more movement, sharper bite on curves and sliders, etc.  Less seams and those become more difficult.  When I coached HS, you had to use the NFHS stamp approved ball, but every ball manufacturer had a NFHS model, one year I had a lights out pitcher with the best 12-6 curve I had seen from a HS pitcher, and back then the Diamond brand had great seams for pitchers, and so I would use Diamonds on my home games, but I remember playing our rival and they knew him forever and the ball they used at home when we played them was one with little seams, of course the next time we went there I brought Diamonds with us and when we got Foul Balls, I would tell our guys to toss in a Diamond from our bag and keep the other one out, little bit of Gamesmanship, but for sure balls mattered. 

I think what the interesting thing from a fantasy standpoint is trying to decipher HR jumps from players and whether its ball related OR is it swing change, launch and lift changes, etc?  I think for me HR/FB rate will probably tell some tales, guys who saw big jumps in that stat but maybe didnt jump flyballs overall might suggest it was more ball related, where a guy who all of a sudden has a lot more fly balls, that guy might be more swing related. 

 

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

Ball for sure had some impact as there can be a little more jump to the ball and also seams - if you have pitcher friendly seams, they can create more movement, sharper bite on curves and sliders, etc.  Less seams and those become more difficult.  When I coached HS, you had to use the NFHS stamp approved ball, but every ball manufacturer had a NFHS model, one year I had a lights out pitcher with the best 12-6 curve I had seen from a HS pitcher, and back then the Diamond brand had great seams for pitchers, and so I would use Diamonds on my home games, but I remember playing our rival and they knew him forever and the ball they used at home when we played them was one with little seams, of course the next time we went there I brought Diamonds with us and when we got Foul Balls, I would tell our guys to toss in a Diamond from our bag and keep the other one out, little bit of Gamesmanship, but for sure balls mattered. 

I think what the interesting thing from a fantasy standpoint is trying to decipher HR jumps from players and whether its ball related OR is it swing change, launch and lift changes, etc?  I think for me HR/FB rate will probably tell some tales, guys who saw big jumps in that stat but maybe didnt jump flyballs overall might suggest it was more ball related, where a guy who all of a sudden has a lot more fly balls, that guy might be more swing related. 

 

 

Great anecdote. On the topic of deciphering ball-related impact, isn’t there a stat that tells us which HRs were just barely HRs? We could probably assume that those HRs with any other ball would have been doubles or outs.

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On 9/4/2019 at 4:12 PM, papasmurf said:

Common adage says value hitting over pitching, but I say if 2020 remains the same as 2019, elite pitching is more valuable.

But figuring who is elite pitching-wise is dubious at best now.  Verlander is in his mid to late 30s.  Kershaw has been injury prone and has back issue and clearly is not the dominant ace he was a few years ago.  Degrom plays for a horrible team and is wins challenged.  Flaherty got a low win total despite pitching for a contender because his team can't really hit well.  Clevinger missed half the year with injuries.  Kluber and Carrasco missed most of the year.  Greinke and Morton are not getting any younger either.  Sale was off all year.  Strasburg has a history of getting hurt.  Nola and Snell regressed.  A number like Giolitto stepped up but are essentially unproven still.  Sure, Scherzer and Cole are pretty much safe bets for 2020 at this a point, but beyond that, I do not know if any of them is worth a high round pick in 5x5.  At best they are safe to post decent numbers and dubious win totals (Degrom and Flaherty imo) and at worst they represent fairly high risk for a top pick imo. 

Add in the closers are all a mess as well.

Bottom line, pitching is an absolute mess right now.  A heavy pitching strategy could work, or it could blow up badly.  The situation is further compounded by the massive spike in HRs with the juiced ball making a call on someone who hits 35 Hrs less obvious as it used to be.  Is someone like Moncada for real or the product of a juiced baseball?  Next year is going to be a complete crap shoot strategy-wise imo.  Guess how much MLB de-juices the ball...guess which hitters fall back to earth if they do...guess which pitchers are likely to pitch well in said environment and not get hurt.

Edited by secretagentman

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51 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

But figuring who is elite pitching-wise is dubious at best now.  Verlander is in his mid to late 30s.  Kershaw has been injury prone and has back issue and clearly is not the dominant ace he was a few years ago.  Degrom plays for a horrible team and is wins challenged.  Flaherty got a low win total despite pitching for a contender because his team can't really hit well.  Clevinger missed half the year with injuries.  Kluber and Carrasco missed most of the year.  Greinke and Morton are not getting any younger either.  Sale was off all year.  Strasburg has a history of getting hurt.  Nola and Snell regressed.  A number like Giolitto stepped up but are essentially unproven still.  Sure, Scherzer and Cole are pretty much safe bets for 2020 at this a point, but beyond that, I do not know if any of them is worth a high round pick in 5x5.  At best they are safe to post decent numbers and dubious win totals (Degrom and Flaherty imo) and at worst they represent fairly high risk for a top pick imo. 

Add in the closers are all a mess as well.

Bottom line, pitching is an absolute mess right now.  A heavy pitching strategy could work, or it could blow up badly.  The situation is further compounded by the massive spike in HRs with the juiced ball making a call on someone who hits 35 Hrs less obvious as it used to be.  Is someone like Moncada for real or the product of a juiced baseball?  Next year is going to be a complete crap shoot strategy-wise imo.  Guess how much MLB de-juices the ball...guess which hitters fall back to earth if they do...guess which pitchers are likely to pitch well in said environment and not get hurt.

 

Walker Buehler says hello.

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6 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus (Registration Required): Moonshot: The Rocket Ball Has Disappeared In October

 

 

Was listening to sleeper in the bust and I'm pretty sure Jason Mason stated that their was a tweet by MLB stating that the ball would be different for the playoffs. Maybe it wasn't a MLB tweet (not sure, going off hearsay, maybe someone else quoting mlb), I'm not trying to find the podcast where it was said, but I think this is known (could be wrong though).

Edited by Light Tower Power

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3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Great anecdote. On the topic of deciphering ball-related impact, isn’t there a stat that tells us which HRs were just barely HRs? We could probably assume that those HRs with any other ball would have been doubles or outs.

I know when ESPN did their HR tracker they had overlays and different stats and your are 100% right, one of the stats was Barely and also "lucky" whatever exactly that meant, but it gave you a good indication of who was out over their skis a bit.  I remember the year Chase Headley had that career year and hit like 30HR, I think he led the league in barely HR.  

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On 10/10/2019 at 5:58 PM, secretagentman said:

But figuring who is elite pitching-wise is dubious at best now.  Verlander is in his mid to late 30s.  Kershaw has been injury prone and has back issue and clearly is not the dominant ace he was a few years ago.  Degrom plays for a horrible team and is wins challenged.  Flaherty got a low win total despite pitching for a contender because his team can't really hit well.  Clevinger missed half the year with injuries.  Kluber and Carrasco missed most of the year.  Greinke and Morton are not getting any younger either.  Sale was off all year.  Strasburg has a history of getting hurt.  Nola and Snell regressed.  A number like Giolitto stepped up but are essentially unproven still.  Sure, Scherzer and Cole are pretty much safe bets for 2020 at this a point, but beyond that, I do not know if any of them is worth a high round pick in 5x5.  At best they are safe to post decent numbers and dubious win totals (Degrom and Flaherty imo) and at worst they represent fairly high risk for a top pick imo. 

Add in the closers are all a mess as well.

Bottom line, pitching is an absolute mess right now.  A heavy pitching strategy could work, or it could blow up badly.  The situation is further compounded by the massive spike in HRs with the juiced ball making a call on someone who hits 35 Hrs less obvious as it used to be.  Is someone like Moncada for real or the product of a juiced baseball?  Next year is going to be a complete crap shoot strategy-wise imo.  Guess how much MLB de-juices the ball...guess which hitters fall back to earth if they do...guess which pitchers are likely to pitch well in said environment and not get hurt.

 

I actually think Verlander will last longer than Max even though he's a year older. You are right that there aren't that many no-doubt elite SPs, which makes Cole/DeGrom/Buehler even that more valuable. 

PS, it looks like they swapped out the juiced ball for the post season. Maybe we go back to the normal ball next year.

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I think one of the first things I will look when I see HR jumps is HR/FB % if a guy changed his swing to hit more fly balls and saw a jump I will chalk more of that up to swing change and not 100% the ball if the HR/FB stayed similar. 

So good example is Semien - his FB% over the last two years was essentially the same, but...this year his HR/FB% doubled, as did his home runs - to me thats someone that might have benefited from ball, luck, etc and probably slides back some.  

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24 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I think one of the first things I will look when I see HR jumps is HR/FB % if a guy changed his swing to hit more fly balls and saw a jump I will chalk more of that up to swing change and not 100% the ball if the HR/FB stayed similar. 

So good example is Semien - his FB% over the last two years was essentially the same, but...this year his HR/FB% doubled, as did his home runs - to me thats someone that might have benefited from ball, luck, etc and probably slides back some.  

 

But what’s a good threshold? Nearly everyone’s HR/FB jumped up a lot.

 

A HR/FB twice as large as previous year is an obvious red flag, but what about a 7% increase? 9% increase?

 

Thats when it’s harder to discern if the ball helped a ton or if the player got better at hitting HRs

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On 10/15/2019 at 12:49 PM, UberRebel said:

 

But what’s a good threshold? Nearly everyone’s HR/FB jumped up a lot.

 

A HR/FB twice as large as previous year is an obvious red flag, but what about a 7% increase? 9% increase?

 

Thats when it’s harder to discern if the ball helped a ton or if the player got better at hitting HRs

Looking at a guy like Marte - took huge jump in HR, but when you sort of go inside the numbers you see he also made some hitting adjustments, he lowered his Ground ball % by 8%, so more line drives and fly balls vs ground balls, probably more = more HR, he also seemed to take a more pull the ball approach as his pull % went up about 7%, and his LH power and changes really emerged.  So would I expect 30+ again?  Maybe not maybe ball has some regression, but I think its still 25+ vs say dropping back to sub 15HR as he was in 2018.  

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