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tonycpsu

2019 Juiced Ball Discussion

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Someone who to me the numbers if a scaled back ball might scream regression is Max Kepler.  

At bats roughly the same, HR jump from 20 to 36.  His HR/FB% went from 9.9% to 18%, but whats even worse in that is that his overall fly ball rate stayed roughly the same around 46%, but whats a little worse in that is that his infield fly ball rate went up by 5%, so balls that had NO CHANCE to leave the yard went up at the same time your HR/FB% essentially doubled.  

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52 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Someone who to me the numbers if a scaled back ball might scream regression is Max Kepler.  

At bats roughly the same, HR jump from 20 to 36.  His HR/FB% went from 9.9% to 18%, but whats even worse in that is that his overall fly ball rate stayed roughly the same around 46%, but whats a little worse in that is that his infield fly ball rate went up by 5%, so balls that had NO CHANCE to leave the yard went up at the same time your HR/FB% essentially doubled.  

 

With the juiced ball I think we can expect for almost everyone's HR/FB% to increase.  Also young hitters generally start to really develop the power aspect of their game around 26 and 27 years old.  Max will be 27 next year.  

 

A few other factors to consider.  When Max was a rookie his HR/FB% was 15.2% and in his sophomore season it was 12.1%.

 

Also consider that The Twins as an organization and as a team really bought into launch angle last season and there's a reason why everyone's HR/FB% went up in the organization.  Mitch Garver's increase implies regression more than Kepler's.  Sano's was 36.6% (previous career high was 27.5%) which with the juiced ball I don't think that number goes down a whole lot next year either.   As Sano's 36.6% isn't all that far off from similarly profiled hitters Gallo's 37.3% and Judge's 35.1% last year.

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I thought MLB already announced they were going to cut back on the juicing next year.  If they don't there will be hell to pay because nobody but the hitters likes that ball.  Fans hate it since fans like tradition in baseball and the stats this year with all the new team/individual records makes a mockery of 2019 which should always have an asterisk placed after all stats from this past year. 

AAA was being destroyed too when the MLB ball was used this year there as well.  The PCL was so  ad it was labeled "useless" by organizations who had teams in it as the stats and metrics they saw were unusable.  They said they had to keep players down in AA where the balls weren't made out of silly putty to gather real stats about their prospects.

MLB?  Not much "action" on the basepaths with cool big rallies like in past seasons.  Exciting stuff like steals were down too.  Baseball has turned into a total snooze fest between defensive shifts and now "true outcome" hitting where it is either a K or a solo homer.  Homers used to be exciting.  The hot sauce of baseball.  Now it has become the main course and the palate is burnt out because of them.

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20 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

With the juiced ball I think we can expect for almost everyone's HR/FB% to increase.  Also young hitters generally start to really develop the power aspect of their game around 26 and 27 years old.  Max will be 27 next year.  

 

A few other factors to consider.  When Max was a rookie his HR/FB% was 15.2% and in his sophomore season it was 12.1%.

 

Also consider that The Twins as an organization and as a team really bought into launch angle last season and there's a reason why everyone's HR/FB% went up in the organization.  Mitch Garver's increase implies regression more than Kepler's.  Sano's was 36.6% (previous career high was 27.5%) which with the juiced ball I don't think that number goes down a whole lot next year either.   As Sano's 36.6% isn't all that far off from similarly profiled hitters Gallo's 37.3% and Judge's 35.1% last year.

You are right about Twins, I guess where my confusion or how Im interpreting might be off is that if your approach with regards to launch angle has changed, shouldnt that be manifesting itself in an increased in FB%?  One of the real bad launch guys we discussed last year was Yandy Diaz, kind of a sleeper type but could he make launch angle adjustments - and it appeared he did and thus you saw a FB% go up like 10%.  

 

 

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28 minutes ago, parrothead said:

You are right about Twins, I guess where my confusion or how Im interpreting might be off is that if your approach with regards to launch angle has changed, shouldnt that be manifesting itself in an increased in FB%?  One of the real bad launch guys we discussed last year was Yandy Diaz, kind of a sleeper type but could he make launch angle adjustments - and it appeared he did and thus you saw a FB% go up like 10%.  

 

Yeah that's a great question... Obviously we can't be certain.  But I would venture to guess with the way the ball is now everyone is going to see an uptick in FB/HR% just look at Yelich's career marks and compare these last 2 to the rest of his career (a ton of data to compare too) he saw an insane jump in 2018 and while his 2019 % dropped some it only went from 35% to 32.8% so still almost 1/3 of his flyballs were leaving the yard this year.  Now also keep in mind Yelich also got a stadium upgrade once traded to The Brewers but his last two season's in FB/HR% has been well over 10% higher than his previous career high let alone career average.  

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36 minutes ago, parrothead said:

how Im interpreting might be off is that if your approach with regards to launch angle has changed, shouldnt that be manifesting itself in an increased in FB%?  One of the real bad launch guys we discussed last year was Yandy Diaz, kind of a sleeper type but could he make launch angle adjustments - and it appeared he did and thus you saw a FB% go up like 10%.  

 

 

 

Well again the "juiced ball" is going farther on average per flyball so that in theory should bump everyone's FB/HR%.  Now changing  your swing path and approach at the plate more geared towards launch angel that should certainly should increase FB% I would also think if the adjustments are at least somewhat successful you'd see an uptick in HR/FB% too regardless of the ball.

 

Yandy is interesting for a few reasons to me.  First he was traded 3 times in one of my main dynasty leagues (so people are obviously seeing value there).  But the FB/HR% increase could be a number of things.  Now I will say I haven't read much about Yandy so I don't know what type of adjustments he's been making but it seems that his GB% still was maintained and his FB% increase came more out of his LD% than his GB%.  So he's still a 50%+ GB guy so there could be even more room for improvement.  So he's just getting a little more lift on the ball which could certainly be swing plane adjustments, maybe he's just getting that much stronger, or matching the plane of the pitch better through having more experience and big league PAs.

 

I will say just on a quick overview I have more faith in the FB/HR% being "real" or maybe the better word here is "repeatable" for 2 main reasons.  First being the ball.  Second he saw this improvement when he got a somewhat of a downgrade in stadiums.  Cleveland was always fairly neutral to slightly favorable in HR ball park factor whereas Tropicana has always been below average.

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